uneblinstu's Post Game Chatter: Vol 9, Ed 22 - Michigan State

[Silverbacked1]

 

The question being give up a lay up verse a open three look.

 

To me it looks like the rest of the B1G lets us drive and guards the kick out three guy rather than leaving him open.

 

 Am I wrong or is that too simplistic of what is really going on?

 

[hhcmatt]

I thought Nick Ward looked out of shape last night...turns out he was sick

Notes and Quotes from the U

 

*-Tai Webster has been in double figures in 23 straight games dating back to last season, including all 22 this season. Webster finished with 18 points and five rebounds. 
*-Freshman Jordy Tshimanga finished with a career-high 15 points and nine rebounds. His previous high point effort was 10 at Kansas, while he had eight rebounds on two occasions, most recently against Kansas.
*- Michigan State’s 64.7 percent shooting from 3-point range was a season high vs. Nebraska and an arena record.

 

Nebraska Coach Tim Miles

Opening statement:
“I give a lot of credit to Michigan State.  I thought they defended well. They shrunk the floor so it felt like our guards didn’t have anywhere to go.  More than anything, they really executed their stuff.  Their ball movement was excellent, and they made their shots. They made big shots, and they kept doing it.  Sometimes you have a little hot streak or whatever it might be but they just kept running their stuff and running their stuff.  I always say I love to play Coach Izzo’s teams because you learn so much about your own team.  At one point, it felt like there are not many more things we can do wrong and we can allow them to do right because we just didn’t take away anything on one end that created anything easy for us on the other end.  And we didn’t get much bench help.”

On the level of play from both teams: 
“I think you give credit where credit is due.  I think Miles [Bridges] came back from the injury, take some time and maybe they’re hitting their stride.  We had gotten them a few times in a row, so there’s some incentive there.  I’m not foolish enough to think that Tom Izzo didn’t bring it up once, but you don’t live on that with these guys.   I was just disappointed in that second half when it was a two-point game with seventeen minutes left in the game, and we just go not compete.”

On his thoughts regarding Jordy Tshimanga: 
“I felt good about Jordy.  He really did a lot of good things. When he does something bad, it’s like the whole world notices.  It’s bad.  He messes up.  But Jordy is going to be a good player in this league.   He did a better job of not fouling tonight.  I think starting him has helped me give him a little bit longer rope and let him play through some of those errors.  I think we’re going to continue to see him shine.”

 

Junior Guard Evan Taylor

On Michigan State’s 3-point shooting: 
“I guess our game plan was focusing on  Nick Ward, but he didn’t start so it changed the game plan. When you double the big, it’s a risk you have to rotate. Just like Purdue, they took shots and was hard to get the shooters when a team passes that well.”

 

On guarding Miles Bridges: 
“He is so versatile, especially to be that size. He can go both ways. He can shoot the 3 and shoot from mid-range. Obviously he’s a freak athlete. So you have to play him straight up, trust your help. Good players make good plays. The goal is to just make them take tough shots. I don’t think we did too bad of a job on them, but like I said, good players are going to make good plays.”

 

On having a good defense: 
“From the beginning, I don’t think our defensive energy was there tonight like it was against Purdue. I think we wanted to be there but we weren’t bouncing and flying around. If you don’t come to play every night on defense, especially defensively, you take that risk. People can get hot and next thing you know they have eight 3’s in one half. I think our mindset going into the next game should be ‘defense, defense, defense’ and getting stops.”

 

Freshman Center Jordy Tshimanga

On his career-high performance tonight:
“It felt pretty good. I always thought it was possible.  It came naturally, I just followed the game plan and it happened.”

 

On his improvement in recent games:
“I haven’t really been practicing that much because of my foot. I just try to come in early before practice and after practice to just shoot more jumpers and free throws. I think that really helped.”

 

On starting and regaining confidence:
“It definitely does give me a little bit more confidence. Hopefully from here. I can just keep on improving.”

 

Michigan State Head Coach Tom Izzo
Opening Statement

“I have mixed feelings. First of all, I am ecstatic about the win. I think we played a good team that has been playing good and has a tough time losing some very tight games, but the job (Tim) Miles has done here is unbelievable. Tim has done a great job. I watch his team. They play hard. They play well, and they are very well coached. Tonight, we made some mistakes. We are still struggling in two areas that we are trying to change and that is our turnovers and our defensive rebounding, but give them credit. Size hurt us, and we had [Nick] Ward and [Kenny] Goins sicker than dogs. They had been out a couple days. They both had the flu, and I am just happy they could go, but if you watch both of them they were dying. Yet we got some play out of a lot of guys with of course [Miles] Bridges, but Kenny gets 10 and Nick gets 10 and Cassius [Winston] gets 10, Alvin Ellis gets some. [Joshua] Langford hits a big shot late. We are getting better, but boy, we have a long way to go. And I thought his team, they just keep fighting. I don’t know what to say about them. I’ve never seen a team that’s lost more close games than them. I still think they are going to be a team that is going to give some people problems. We put a lot into those two guards. When they came with that double-big lineup and especially when we were in trouble already inside, that really concerned me. So I am just happy to take the win and get the hell out of dodge.”

 

On the boost his team gets from winning a second straight game for the first time

“Like I tell my guys all the time up there, we are still a work in progress. We really are. We still have deficiencies. We still have scary moments if somebody gets two or three fouls, but this team is starting to learn how to play harder. We did execute some great things in a 10-minute stretch. We got a little sloppy at the end, but I just think we are getting better because we are playing together. Bridges now has had three weeks back with us, and we are learning how to play with him. Cassius Winston has been a big boost. He can do some things offensively and is getting better defensively. So there are a lot of pluses to build on. In this league right now, the way it’s going, I don’t feel comfortable playing anybody. I definitely didn’t feel comfortable playing here because of the respect I have for Tim and his program. And the fans are great here, you guys got something special here.”

[Norm Peterson]

35 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

3 Point FG PCT Defense(in conference) since Molinari was hired.  For a program that is supposedly being built from defense up...we have not been very good on that end the past few years.   Is it scheme? Personnel?  A mix of both?

14/15- #12- .361
15/16- #13- .392
16/17- #13- .454

Before Molinari

12/13- #5- .320
13/14- #5- .330

 

[atskooc]

12 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I don't know if you listened to the post-game last night but Miles talked about bad 3-pt defense the last couple of years and basically went through the personnel changes and when you swap the one group for the other group, you lose a lot of length and quickness on the perimeter.

 

That doesn't sound like the finger points to Molinari's defensive schemes.  So, while your statistics are very interesting, they might not prove what it appears you're attempting to imply.

Or he could have been just defending his guy.

 

Whatever the reason, our three-point defense is terrible.  We've got to get this ship righted.

[Norm Peterson]

Just now, atskooc said:

Or he could have been just defending his guy.

 

Whatever the reason, our three-point defense is terrible.  We've got to get this ship righted.

 

Do you think he was anticipating huskerbaseball13's post?  Miles' comments came first before the suggestion was made that it has some correlation to when Molinari took over.

[atskooc]

12 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Do you think he was anticipating huskerbaseball13's post?  Miles' comments came first before the suggestion was made that it has some correlation to when Molinari took over.

Yes, Norm, Miles knew that post was coming.  If only he could have foreseen Watson falling down against Ohio State.

 

Or, Miles knew those stats long before anyone here put them together.  He's a smart dude; I suspect he can tell that the three-point shooting percentage of our opponents has increased considerably since Coach Mo showed up.  Mo was hired as a defensive specialist, and that hasn't seemed to bear fruit. 

 

I'm not saying Mo is the cause; I'm saying I suspect Miles sees what many here have seen and perhaps came to the proactive defense of his assistant coach.

[aphilso1]

19 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Do you think he was anticipating huskerbaseball13's post?  Miles' comments came first before the suggestion was made that it has some correlation to when Molinari took over.

 

huskerbaseball13 isn't the only person who has questioned whether Molinari is the right guy for the job.  Also, I'm pretty sure you understand correlation vs. causation better than you implied with the margarine vs. divorce graph.  When hiring a guy who is basically our defensive coordinator results in miserable 3pt% defense, that's almost assuredly causation. Especially with back-to-back-to-back years as negative data points, which were preceded by back-to-back years as positive data points.

[hhcmatt]

11 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Someone made the comment about him shooting 3-pointers that he was only 37% or so from 2-point range.  And that might have been true but it was also misleading.  Over the last 5 games, he's shooting 56% from the field and 62% from the stripe.  In that span, he's averaging 15 minutes, 8.2 points, and 3.6 rebounds.  All of those numbers are very encouraging.

 

Agreed, very encouraging play lately. With Morrow out we absolutely need him to play and he's often stepping up to the challenge.

The point about 3pters was that he should learn to walk before he runs.  It's probable that with the number of minutes he's played over the last two games teams might realize he's left handed.

 

[Norm Peterson]

 

2 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

huskerbaseball13 isn't the only person who has questioned whether Molinari is the right guy for the job.  Also, I'm pretty sure you understand correlation vs. causation better than you implied with the margarine vs. divorce graph.  When hiring a guy who is basically our defensive coordinator results in miserable 3pt% defense, that's almost assuredly causation. Especially with back-to-back-to-back years as negative data points, which were preceded by back-to-back years as positive data points.

 

aphilso, you missed the point of my charts.  I wasn't arguing a causal connection between margarine consumption and divorce rates in Maine.  I was trying to make the point that just because your numbers line up doesn't mean that one factor caused the other.  And, clearly, no one would seriously argue that margarine consumption influences divorce rates or vice versa.  Yet, the numbers line up just as surely as the 3-point shooting defense numbers line up to when Molinari came on staff.

 

And I don't think Miles' comments were in any way a preemptive defense of Molinari.  First, the defensive performance is ultimately Miles' responsibility.  Second, I don't think Molinari has instituted some novel scheme for defending the three-point line that's all that different from what we'd done in the past.

 

The big issue when we get burned for 3 pointers is when we have to double the post.  Our scheme for closing out on shooters when we're recovering from the double team isn't any different now than it's ever been.  Last night, though, they were killing us with contested shots at the end of the clock.  That wasn't a matter of us failing to close out and recover; that was a matter of them just making some great plays, some shot-clock daggers.

[huskerbaseball13]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I don't know if you listened to the post-game last night but Miles talked about bad 3-pt defense the last couple of years and basically went through the personnel changes and when you swap the one group for the other group, you lose a lot of length and quickness on the perimeter.

 

That doesn't sound like the finger points to Molinari's defensive schemes.  So, while your statistics are very interesting, they might not prove what it appears you're attempting to imply.

 

Miles did say the below in the offseason...

 

On defense, Miles and his three assistants — Jim Molinari, Kenya Hunter and Michael Lewis — are re-evaluating NU’s plan.

“There are adjustments we’re going to make defensively,” Miles said. “Jim is one of the best defensive minds out there, as he proved as a head coach over and over. Kenya does an outstanding job in that area, and Michael Lewis has some independent ideas after having worked at Butler for Brad Stevens and played at Indiana for Bob Knight.”

A recent coaches’ session on 3-point defense ran two hours.

“That really hurt us last year,” Miles said. “Some of it was a lack of length. And we’ll fine-tune some things so we don’t repeat last year’s mistakes.”

 

I don't think it's as simple to say it's all on Molinari, I didn't listen to the post game and I honestly could not tell you if there is any difference within our defensive scheme from year 2 to year 5 without going back and watching multiple games.  But, it would appear...whatever fine tuning or changes they made did not work as we are far worse at defending the three right now.  Some of that may have to do with the Big 10 as a whole being better from the three point line....but, we have only held 2 out of our 10 opponents under their Big 10 three point average.  I don't see it having to do with a length issue. 

Edited February 3, 2017 by huskerbaseball13

[49r]

Listen, Norm...

 

We lost a game.  Somebody's gotta get fired for that!  Pure and simple.

[hhcmatt]

22 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

huskerbaseball13 isn't the only person who has questioned whether Molinari is the right guy for the job.  Also, I'm pretty sure you understand correlation vs. causation better than you implied with the margarine vs. divorce graph.  When hiring a guy who is basically our defensive coordinator results in miserable 3pt% defense, that's almost assuredly causation. Especially with back-to-back-to-back years as negative data points, which were preceded by back-to-back years as positive data points.

 

2 things

 

1) The percentage of 3pt attempts allowed has gone down over the last 3 years. Teams are making more but shooting less.

2) Molinari defenses at Western Illinois were always grinds and also built to crash the boards. Either Mo has completely changed his style, he's running a style he's not the most accustomed to, or else he's not the one who's ultimately in charge of the defense. Who exactly has us running a 1-3-1?

 

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think we have offensive and defensive coordinators on this team.

Edited February 3, 2017 by hhcdimes
percentage, not number

[Fullbacksympathy]

Didn't get to watch the game all that closely, but noticing a few things from the box score:

 

Jordy got big minutes (24) and only had two fouls.  He's starting to get it.  That's what extended minutes and actually fouling out of a game can do.  Great numbers from the young fella (except turnovers.. yikes).  Now more than ever I'd like to see him and Morrow/Jacobson on the floor at the same time and just demoralize opponents' front court.  Which also has me wondering:

 

With Jacobson's numbers at the 5 being generally bad (or, at the least, inconsistent), is it best to have him playing the 4, even in Morrow's absence?  I ask this because he's producing nothing on the offensive end in addition to being outmatched on the defensive end at the 5.  Would it be better to roll out Roby or Horne at the 5 to give Jordy breathers?  Could they at least create matchup problems on the offensive end to offset the inevitable defensive struggles?  I believe Roby can rebound if he has to, and he could make some opposing bigs very uncomfortable in transition since he can bring it up the court.  Just thoughts... 

 

MSU is gritty m2m defense.  I'm not surprised Horne, McVeigh, and Taylor struggled.  I didn't realize until watching it how much worse of a matchup this was than Purdue.  MSU is a much more athletic 1-5.  We match up really well with them when we have a healthy Morrow though.  Ugh.  

[aphilso1]

1 hour ago, hhcdimes said:

 

2 things

 

1) The percentage of 3pt attempts allowed has gone down over the last 3 years. Teams are making more but shooting less.

2) Molinari defenses at Western Illinois were always grinds and also built to crash the boards. Either Mo has completely changed his style, he's running a style he's not the most accustomed to, or else he's not the one who's ultimately in charge of the defense. Who exactly has us running a 1-3-1?

 

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think we have offensive and defensive coordinators on this team.

 

1) Good point.  I honestly hadn't thought about the % of three pointers attempted.  So it is possible that we're doing a better job chasing shooters off the line this year (hence fewer attempts) but they're just doing a much better job of making them.  That being said, % made seems like a better indicator once you're 20+ games into the year.  That's a lot of shot attempts, so should balance out for the one or two nights when an opposing shooter gets insanely hot

2)Mo had a different type of athlete at WIU, so I would expect to see changes when he's given a roster of 4* dudes.  Lewis was the one responsible for the 1-3-1 IIRC, but we only use that on 5% of our possessions.  And while we don't have a coach with D.C. in his title, I seem to remember comments from Miles when he hired Mo that it was primarily for his defense-oriented brain.  I could very well be wrong.  But  I've seen and/or read many interviews over the years where Mo is mentioned by name as coming up with the defensive gameplan. It's safe to say he's responsible for more than just 1/4 of our D.

[aphilso1]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

 

aphilso, you missed the point of my charts.  I wasn't arguing a causal connection between margarine consumption and divorce rates in Maine.  I was trying to make the point that just because your numbers line up doesn't mean that one factor caused the other.  And, clearly, no one would seriously argue that margarine consumption influences divorce rates or vice versa.  Yet, the numbers line up just as surely as the 3-point shooting defense numbers line up to when Molinari came on staff.

 

And I don't think Miles' comments were in any way a preemptive defense of Molinari.  First, the defensive performance is ultimately Miles' responsibility.  Second, I don't think Molinari has instituted some novel scheme for defending the three-point line that's all that different from what we'd done in the past.

 

The big issue when we get burned for 3 pointers is when we have to double the post.  Our scheme for closing out on shooters when we're recovering from the double team isn't any different now than it's ever been.  Last night, though, they were killing us with contested shots at the end of the clock.  That wasn't a matter of us failing to close out and recover; that was a matter of them just making some great plays, some shot-clock daggers.

 

I understood the charts.  You were trying to use an obviously ridiculous correlation to prove that correlation does not equal causation.  Really, I get it.  But I found it equally ridiculous to dismiss huskerbaseball's research, when it was showing that the thing our team is the absolute worst at (defending the three) got bad at exactly the same time we brought in a guy who heavily influences our defense.  In that scenario, it's not some giant logical fallacy to think that causation may be at play. 

 

And really, the thing that was bothersome is that you used a pithy response to try dismiss the conversation altogether.  That happens all over the internet, but not usually on HHC.

 

OK.  I'm better now.  Moving on...

Edited February 3, 2017 by aphilso1

[hhcmatt]

Ty Lue Presser

 

 

[hhcmatt]

 

[bkamler]

I was very impressed with MSU passing. Especially with four freshmen! After they brought the ball past half court the dribbling stopped.  They used a series of quick passes both short and long and many times went up to catch the pass and simply tipped it to the open man. Can't cover great passing. We on the other dribble excessively while the other four stand around mostly.

[PimpMario]

I was very impressed with MSU passing. Especially with four freshmen! After they brought the ball past half court the dribbling stopped.  They used a series of quick passes both short and long and many times went up to catch the pass and simply tipped it to the open man. Can't cover great passing. We on the other dribble excessively while the other four stand around mostly.

Passing is something our offense lacks

[49r]

Sure, their record may not be what they had hoped...and MSU is having at least as bad of injury issues as we are this year, but they're still MSU - ESPN had them with the #1 freshman class in the country this year - there's a lot of stars in that galaxy:

 

RECRUITING CLASS: 

2019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007

• Commits
• Considering
• Offers
• Visits
• Class Rank

PLAYER	POS	LOCATION	HT	WT	STARS	GRADE	SCHOOL
Miles Bridges Video | Scouts Report	#3 SF	Flint, MI Huntington Prep	6'7''	225		96	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED
Josh Langford Video | Scouts Report	#3 SG	Huntsville, AL Madison Academy	6'6''	205		93	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED
Cassius Winston Video | Scouts Report	#7 PG	Detroit, MI Univ. of Detroit Jesuit High School	6'1''	177		89	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED
Nick Ward Video | Scouts Report	#6 C	Gahanna, OH Lincoln High School	6'8''	230		87	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED

 

 

RECRUITING CLASS: 

2019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007

• Commits
• Considering
• Offers
• Visits

PLAYER	POS	LOCATION	HT	WT	STARS	GRADE	SCHOOL
Deyonta Davis Video | Scouts Report	#6 PF	Muskegon, MI Muskegon High School	6'9''	210		89	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED
Matt McQuaid Video | Scouts Report	#23 SG	Duncanville, TX Duncanville High School	6'4''	175		85	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED
Kyle Ahrens Video | Scouts Report	#36 SG	Versailles, OH Versailles High School	6'5''	180		80	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED

 

 

RECRUITING CLASS: 

2019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007

• Commits
• Considering
• Offers
• Visits
• Class Rank

PLAYER	POS	LOCATION	HT	WT	STARS	GRADE	SCHOOL
Lourawls Nairn Video | Scouts Report	#15 PG	Bel Aire, KS Sunrise Christian Academy	5'10''	170		83	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED
Javon Bess Video | Scouts Report	#20 SG	Gahanna, OH Lincoln High School	6'5''	195		80	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED
Marvin Clark Video | Scouts Report	#40 PF	Blue Springs, MO Sunrise Christian Academy	6'7''	219		77	MICHIGAN STATE SIGNED

[hhcmatt]

The percentage of 3pt attempts shot by our opponents has gone down over the last 3 years.

2015 - 38.2

2016 - 34.0

2017 - 32.7

 

It's not enough to mitigate all the damage being done by the higher percentage but it helps.

[PimpMario]

The percentage of 3pt attempts shot by our opponents has gone down over the last 3 years.
2015 - 38.2
2016 - 34.0
2017 - 32.7
 
It's not enough to mitigate all the damage being done by the higher percentage but it helps.

Maybe total points scored is a way to look at it?

Shooting less and making more means are defense has been even worse than we thought doesn't it?

The percentage of time that they are not shooting 3 points they are shooting 2 pointers

[huskerbaseball13]

9 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

The percentage of 3pt attempts shot by our opponents has gone down over the last 3 years.

2015 - 38.2

2016 - 34.0

2017 - 32.7

 

It's not enough to mitigate all the damage being done by the higher percentage but it helps.

 

Not something I even thought to look at...but to piggy back of your numbers, we are actually giving up more three point attempts per game at this point compared to the previous two years.  Interesting compared to your stats that while our opponents are taking less three point attempts compared to overall possessions but we are giving up more attempts per game...and even worse 2 + three point makes a game.  The below numbers are just conference stats...I did not lump in the non-con. 

 

3 FG Attempts

 

2015- 19.2

2016- 18.8

2017- 20.5

 

3 FG Makes

 

2015-6.9

2016- 7.3

2017- 9.3

[PimpMario]

 
Not something I even thought to look at...but to piggy back of your numbers, we are actually giving up more three point attempts per game at this point compared to the previous two years.  Interesting compared to your stats that while our opponents are taking less three point attempts compared to overall possessions but we are giving up more attempts per game...and even worse 2 + three point makes a game.  The below numbers are just conference stats...I did not lump in the non-con. 
 
3 FG Attempts
 
2015- 19.2
2016- 18.8
2017- 20.5
 
3 FG Makes
 
2015-6.9
2016- 7.3
2017- 9.3

Nice find. We have probably played a faster tempo this year and the 30 second shot clocks means teams are getting more possessions against us than in the past.

My conclusion is still Our 3 point percentage defense is terrible and needs work.

[Norm Peterson]

48 minutes ago, PimpMario said:

 

 

 

 

Nice find. We have probably played a faster tempo this year and the 30 second shot clocks means teams are getting more possessions against us than in the past.

My conclusion is still Our 3 point percentage defense is terrible and needs work.

 

 

 

Clearly it's terrible, but the question being asked is why is it terrible.