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Time To Make The Move

hhcdave

By hhcdave
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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49r

49r

Posted
Posted

This move is being made.

 

The light is coming on for this team.  Anyone can see it.

 

5-2 in the last 7 games with 4 very winnable games left in our final 7.

 

.500 in the league is not only not out of the question, but dare I say it, likely.

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49r
49r

4-2 in the last 6 games with 5 very winnable games left in our final 8.

kleitus
kleitus

i did a little research into schedules in the big ten... just to play into this a bit.   Here's the teams immediately ahead of us in the standings that are not in the top 4 of the big ten ... and a

hhcdave
hhcdave

4-6 with three of four at home (Illinois, Penn State, Purdue).   Go 3-1 and you're sitting at 7-7, on the NCAA bubble and a near lock for the NIT, because:   Last four ALL winnable (except possibl

49r

49r

Posted
Posted
Final Record --- Expected RPI --- Probability

20-10  ---------- 35.3 -------------- 0.06%

19-11  ---------- 44.3 -------------- 1.30%

18-12  ---------- 54.0 -------------- 8.22%

17-13  ---------- 67.4 -------------- 23.54%

16-14  ---------- 81.8 -------------- 33.37%

15-15  ---------- 96.0 -------------- 23.78%

14-16  ---------- 112.3 ------------- 8.51%

13-17  ---------- 130.5 ------------- 1.21%

GoBigRed

GoBigRed

Posted
Posted

Based on the expected RPI, I think we need to find a way to be 18-12 or 19-11. Anything less would require a major run in the B1G tourney.

In my uneducated opinion, 19-11 (11-7) and a win in the tourney would be an NCAA lock. 18-12 (10-8) and a win in the tourney would be on the bubble and we probably would need a win over Wisconsin or at Michigan State. 9-9 in conferece would require a huge run in the tournament.

KZRider

KZRider

Posted
Posted

I would like to drink the Kool-Aid on a regular season 19-11 / 18-12 season. Games @ MSU, @ Ind and @ ILL along with a home game with Wisc are all tough. Well, they are ALL tough! Since we have to go 6-1 / 5-2 it means we have to at least split those four AND win out otherwise at home. It would be the stuff of legends to beat MSU and a mighty feat to take IND. Best chance is to win @ILL and WIsc without stubbing our toe at home. If that happens TIm Miles should be B1G Coach of the Year.

 

More realistically, I think we could hold serve at home, end the season 17-13, win two in B1G tourney and watch the selection process as a bubble team. The end of season game with Wisc is looming as a monumental game! House ought to be rocking that night!

Ron Mexico

Ron Mexico

Posted
Posted

 

A win over Michigan State is all I want at this point.

And it would be a HUGE resume-builder for NU's dancin' dreams...

 

Not to mention a huge RPI boost.

It's important not to forget, this isn't directed specifically at you Aurora, that the selection committee looks at quality wins along with the RPI. We need to be in the 40's to get into the tourny as an at large bid.

throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted

 

Based on the expected RPI, I think we need to find a way to be 18-12 or 19-11. Anything less would require a major run in the B1G tourney.

In my uneducated opinion, 19-11 (11-7) and a win in the tourney would be an NCAA lock. 18-12 (10-8) and a win in the tourney would be on the bubble and we probably would need a win over Wisconsin or at Michigan State. 9-9 in conferece would require a huge run in the tournament.

 

Agreed - 19 wins (including B1G tourney) makes us a bubble team, but probably a bit short. 20 wins almost certainly puts us on the good side. Maybe a 10% shot at getting to 19.

 

However Sunday's game is a wild card. Find a way to pull that one off, and possibly it changes the requirement by a full win. Nothing to lose, everything to gain Sunday. I'm not sure we have another game that offers that kind of a possible reward on the remainder of the schedule, especially with Indiana dropping like a rock.

 

Not to get completely ahead of things, ;) but while Wisky at home would be a very nice win, I'm not sure it's one that turns the heads of the committee. A quarterfinal B1G tourney win on a neutral floor would be very, very helpful. We just don't have that eye-catching performance away from home yet that makes the resume stand out. The committee loves those kinds of neutral site/road wins above almost all else.

AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted

A win over Michigan State is all I want at this point.

And it would be a HUGE resume-builder for NU's dancin' dreams...

Not to mention a huge RPI boost.

It's important not to forget, this isn't directed specifically at you Aurora, that the selection committee looks at quality wins along with the RPI. We need to be in the 40's to get into the tourny as an at large bid.

Winning on the road at a top 10 RPI team is a resume-builder if NU continues the trend its been on these past 7 games. I think we're saying the same thing, just from a different viewpoint.

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

 

Based on the expected RPI, I think we need to find a way to be 18-12 or 19-11. Anything less would require a major run in the B1G tourney.

In my uneducated opinion, 19-11 (11-7) and a win in the tourney would be an NCAA lock. 18-12 (10-8) and a win in the tourney would be on the bubble and we probably would need a win over Wisconsin or at Michigan State. 9-9 in conferece would require a huge run in the tournament.

 

 

That would mean winning 6 out of 7 and a pretty favorable matchup in the B1G tourney.  Not for sure if it's a lock without that Michigan State win though that 11-7 record in the conference might do it.  

 

FWIW Iowa didn't make it after a 20-11 regular season (21-11 after the B1G tourney).  They also had a horrible non-conf schedule.

 

It would take a fairly unexpected and unprobable run...but what a run it would be!

GoBigRed

GoBigRed

Posted
Posted
So I guess it should be no problem for the message board to discuss it all the time, right? Wow this is incredible!!!!! I can't believe he didn't go with the standard team focus responses like, "one game at a time" and "let's not get ahead of ourselves" and "gotta stay focused and control what we can control" etc.

I love it. I love that this is our team's goal. Not just making postseason. I love that they discuss it so everyone is on the same page. I just hope they realize they need to play extremely well every game from here on out. One slip up and that dream is diminished.

ajb5856

ajb5856

Posted
Posted

I love it. I love that this is our team's goal.

That was the team's goal last year as well.

Under Miles that's going to be the goal every single year.

I just find it to be a bit of fresh air that he is willing to admit that they talk about it. We know everyone talks about it it's just that most players and coaches are programmed to give the BS responses about being ultra focused so they can't let themselves talk about it.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted

 

I love it. I love that this is our team's goal. 

 

That was the team's goal last year as well.

Under Miles that's going to be the goal every single year.

 

 

Not to be a snob, but... His goal is to make the NCAA tournament AND win a game ;)

trickey

trickey

Posted
Posted

 

I love it. I love that this is our team's goal. 

 

That was the team's goal last year as well.

Under Miles that's going to be the goal every single year.

 

Well, Until we do it a few times...then we will up our sights to a higher target!

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

 

 

I love it. I love that this is our team's goal. 

 

That was the team's goal last year as well.

Under Miles that's going to be the goal every single year.

 

Well, Until we do it a few times...then we will up our sights to a higher target!

 

 

I should have said that's going to be A goal every year.

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