KenPom 2012-2013 KenPom Rankings Thread

[hskr4life]

Need something to take your mind off of tonights game? Check out Real Time RPI who has the Huskers going 18-12 and 9-9 in conference winning every home game and losing all road games. Now I know the chances of this happening are slim to none, but its nice to think about.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_148_Men.html

[Norm Peterson]

If this Husker team wins 18 games, including 9 in conference, we should be dancing AND I can tell you who the national coach of the year ought to be.

[HuskerFever]

One could think that Miles didn't want to show all his cards and has been holding back for conference play. If only.

[tcp]

it's too early to take realtime seriously. i think last year we were number 13 after three games or something. really, any rpi measure not taking into account spreads can be really off early.

[49r]

Not a lot of change.

Kenpom rankings as of 12-19-12.

==============================

B1G:

2. Indiana

8. Ohio State

9. Michigan

11. Minnesota

15. Wisconsin

18. Michigan State

30. Illinois

50. Iowa

61. Purdue

86. Northwestern

184. Penn State

205. Nebraska

Games Played:

255. Southern - W

95. Valpariaso - W

338. UNO - W

137. Tulane - W

160. Kent State - L

201. @Wake Forest - W

111. Southern Cal - W

16. Creighton - L

35. @Oregon - L

218. Jacksonville State - W

Upcoming non-cons:

---Sun Bowl Invitational--

275. Central Michigan

169./337. UTEP/Ark PB

321. Nicholls State

[HuskerActuary]

Penn State keeps dropping.

[Norm Peterson]

We're ranked #205 right now. So, who's ahead of us? I asked myself. According to Kenpom, the following are:

5-5 Wake Forest, whom we beat by double figures at their place, is better than us by 2 spots.

4-6 NorthEASTERN is ahead of us by 3 spots.

3-7 Rhode Island sits at #188.

3-6 Quinnipiac sits at #182.

Toledo at 3-6 is the #175 team per Kenpom.

4-8 Oakland is at #172,

Further up the list ...

3-8 Delaware rests at #147.

And Denver at 3-6 is #82.

I'm sorry. I know these computers aren't perfect, but Denver at #82? With wins over Nebraska-Omaha, Mercer and Texas A&M Corpus Christi? And losses to Iona, Wyoming, Colorado State, Stanford, Cal and Southern Miss? You're going to have a hard time convincing me that they're better than us. Let alone that they're 123 spots better than us.

[hskr4life]

We're ranked #205 right now. So, who's ahead of us? I asked myself. According to Kenpom, the following are:

5-5 Wake Forest, whom we beat by double figures at their place, is better than us by 2 spots.

4-6 NorthEASTERN is ahead of us by 3 spots.

3-7 Rhode Island sits at #188.

3-6 Quinnipiac sits at #182.

Toledo at 3-6 is the #175 team per Kenpom.

4-8 Oakland is at #172,

Further up the list ...

3-8 Delaware rests at #147.

And Denver at 3-6 is #82.

I'm sorry. I know these computers aren't perfect, but Denver at #82? With wins over Nebraska-Omaha, Mercer and Texas A&M Corpus Christi? And losses to Iona, Wyoming, Colorado State, Stanford, Cal and Southern Miss? You're going to have a hard time convincing me that they're better than us. Let alone that they're 123 spots better than us.

I think time will tell... It is early and these computers are way off... it is like trying to forecast a blizzard a two weeks in advance.

[49r]

Well, just over a month ago Oregon was #109 and were as high as #35 just a few days ago, so it is possible to move quite a bit in Pomeroy. Also, Penn State has dropped like 100 spots in the past month or so as well.

[HuskermavfanChuck]

This is why I'm trying to figure out how KenPom ratings are such a big deal. You want a rating, go take a look at Warren Nolan's site. He has a pseudo-RPI which has teams in funky spots all over the place, which you'd expect. But he also does what he calls his Nolan Power Index, which to me seems to be pretty on track for a lot of teams. That rating has us just outside the top 100, which is about where I would expect us to be, with the wins and losses we've had. Jacksonville State is actually still a couple spots ahead of us in his ranking, which by the way the teams played the other night, wouldn't necessarily surprise me either. Creighton is at #6, probably a tid high, but they still only have the one loss. Oregon at 36 is probably about where I'd have expected them. You can take the rankings for what they're worth, just that Nolan's system seems to me to be a little more on par than most.

warrennolan.com for those interested.

Actually, we were a couple spots behind J St when I looked right after the game the other night (updated every 5-10 minutes, I think). It now shows them 1 spot behind, so a few things likely shifted regarding other teams to get those changes.

[hskr4life]

JVST is actually a quality win for us on Real Time RPI. The USC win is looking better by the day. Wake Forest win was a nice one. The Kent State loss was what is hurting us right now. I think if we win that one, we are sitting really well right now.

[HuskerActuary]

No longer the lowest ranked team in the conference!

[tcp]

No longer the lowest ranked team in the conference!

woo hoo! i suppose we should send Tim Frazier boxes of chocolates for that. Happy, but still a sad way to squeeze into that elusive 11th slot.

[49r]

Quick update before the UTEP game. Nice to not be at the bottom of the B1G list. Tulane and Wake both make big jumps this week, each up about 30 spots. That probably helped us as much as beating CMU did.

Kenpom rankings as of 12-23-12.

==============================

B1G:

1. Indiana

7. Michigan

9. Ohio State

11. Minnesota

16. Michigan State

17. Wisconsin

33. Illinois

40. Iowa

69. Purdue

88. Northwestern

191. Nebraska

197. Penn State

Games Played:

230. Southern - W

97. Valpariaso - W

338. UNO - W

106. Tulane - W

139. Kent State - L

176. @Wake Forest - W

130. Southern Cal - W

15. Creighton - L

32. @Oregon - L

215. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--

268. Central Michigan - W

Upcoming non-cons:

151. UTEP

311. Nicholls State

[Huskerpapa]

I will never understand these ratings, and frankly, I am not sure I would want to understand them.

[Chuck Taylor]

Ken Pomeroy analyzes stats, doesn't pay as much attention to outcome. Very much like Bill James on baseball. So while with a small sample (one-third of the way into the season) can skew the results, he does point out underlying trends and is considered a better predictive rating than RPI, which measures game results.

Our low rating on KenPom is a warning sign, but it's based on some horrendous games already in the bank. If we iron out our offensive issues, we can shoot up quickly. Our defensive rating is definitely mediocre (137 according to the KenPom ratings), but keep in mind we've had a short rotation because of Shields' injury and Almeida's various issues that have kept him on the bench. I think we're definitely a top 100 defensive team when all is said and done. The offense? Well, there's always hope.

So while Realtime RPI predictions look like we're a bubble team, Ken Pomeroy is saying we'll be home in March. We'll see.

[Silverbacked1]

Which service is the one dovetails with the NCAA the best.

Or do they use more than one? Or their own?

[Chuck Taylor]

The NCAA uses their own RPI, so that's all that matters. Pomeroy is just a way of predicting the outcome of a game, based on the way a team performs. The NCAA picks the brackets, but I always look at KenPom before filling one out for a pool.

The thing it focuses a lot on is points per possession, both defensively and offensively, then figures in quality of opponent and the rest. I'm not saying it's perfect, but it's interesting. The last couple of years, it seemed like we were good on defense, but Pomeroy indicated we were just holding down the score, for example.

Ken Pomeroy is for numbers nerds. It's a tool, but if you rely on it exclusively you become one.

[hskr4life]

Current Real Time RPI for Big 10 (#1 RPI and SOS)

Team National RPI

1. Michigan-- 3

2. Illinois-- 7

3. Minnesota-- 12

4. Indiana-- 21

5. Michigan State-- 32

6. Ohio State-- 37

7. Nebraska-- 56

8. Iowa-- 76

9. Northwestern-- 104

10. Penn State-- 128

11. Wisconsin-- 142

12. Purdue-- 201

Our Non Con

W-Southern (114 RPI, 3-6)

W-Valpo (173 RPI, 8-4)

W-Nebraska Omaha (310 RPI, 2-10)

W-Tulane (193 RPI, 9-3)

L-Kent State (182 RPI, 7-5) (Bad Loss)

W-Wake Forest (206 RPI, 6-5)

W-USC (210 RPI, 4-8)

L-Creighton (16 RPI, 11-1)

L-Oregon (55 RPI, 10-2)

W-Jacksonville State (94 RPI, 6-3) (Quality Win)

W-Central Michigan (123 RPI, 6-5)

L-UTEP (96 RPI, 6-5)

?-Nicholls State (301 RPI, 1-8)

[49r]

Not a whole lot of change today.

Kenpom rankings as of 12-26-12.

==============================

B1G:

1. Indiana

7. Michigan

9. Ohio State

10. Minnesota

16. Wisconsin

17. Michigan State

34. Illinois

43. Iowa

69. Purdue

81. Northwestern

159. Penn State

204. Nebraska

Games Played:

232. Southern - W

95. Valpariaso - W

338. UNO - W

108. Tulane - W

141. Kent State - L

177. @Wake Forest - W

131. Southern Cal - W

15. Creighton - L

33. @Oregon - L

217. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--

258. Central Michigan - W

136. UTEP - L

Upcoming non-con:

311. Nicholls State

[tcp]

we're getting close to being locked into Pom's rankings. we should still get something of an SoS bump and if we can make some games close, that might bump us up a bit more. interestingly enough, Sagarin's rankings are a bit more friendly to us. His combined rating had us tucked into the 160s I think. Our losses all being blowouts hasn't helped much.

[uneblinstu]

How is Purdue at 69?

[cipsucks]

How is Purdue at 69?

You'd have to ask their girlfriends.......

[49r]

We need some hoops to talk about, eh cip?

[trickey]

How is Purdue at 69?

You'd have to ask their girlfriends.......

Cip, for the sake of all...