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Bracketology 2024/2025

hskr4life

By hskr4life
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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GhostOfJoeMcCray
GhostOfJoeMcCray

not that there's a very realistic chance of that happening, but hypothetically that would potentially put us at 10-6 in Q1.    Here were the teams last year who had 10 or more Q1 wins:

hskr4life
hskr4life

This conversation with the wife hit me like a bus.   Me: Blabbering on about the bubble and how weak it is, but also Nebraska needing to win and everything in between.   Her: So wh

hskr4life
hskr4life

Our 6 Q1 wins put us in a tie for 11th best in the nation in terms of number of Q1 wins. There are just 18 teams with 6 or more Q1 wins. Our six wins put us in the same company as Purdue, Mississippi

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hskr4life

hskr4life

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18 minutes ago, cozrulz said:

 

why not the other way?  to make a win against Iowa look better?  but then our win against Illinois wouldn't look as good.

 

Sometimes I don't get T-Ranks rooting guide. Legit it says the biggest game for us tonight is the Colorado St Vs Air Force game. I don't know why or how... but... that's just what his numbers say.

Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

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On 2/21/2025 at 9:13 AM, Nebrasketball1979 said:

As another data point, Fan Duel has the odds of Nebraska making the tournament at -490.  Meaning, you have to wager $490 to win a measly $100.  This is an implied probability of 83% of Nebraska making the tournament according to one book in Vegas.  Conversely, if you would like an emotional hedge, you can also wager on Nebraska not making the NCAA tournament at +325 odds.  

 

We're in good shape.  Beat Michigan on Monday and this becomes close to a moot point.  Lose to Michigan and then beat the teams you should.  I think most of us would have signed up for this scenario at the beginning of the year!  

Checking back in on this.  The latest odds for us to make the tournament is -260, which are implied odds of 72%.  The Michigan loss wasn't the end of the world, just a missed opportunity.  And, if you want the emotional hedge and want to bet on us not making the tournament, Fan Duel will pay you almost 2 to 1 to make that wager (+188).  Still in very good shape.  Just win the two games at home where we will be 6+ point favorites.

hskr4life

hskr4life

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Quick Look at Resumes of Bubble teams around us... I just used the BracketMatrix Bubble as it averages out all bracketologists.

 

Nebraska: Q1 Wins- 5 , Q1/2 Record- 9-11 , Road Record- 5-6 , Q3/4 Losses- 0

 

Bubble In:

Texas: Q1 Wins- 4 , Q1/2 Record- 7-11 , Road Record- 3-5 , Q3/4 Losses- 0

Oklahoma: Q1 Wins- 5 , Q1/2 Record- 7-9 , Road Record- 1-6 , Q3/4 Losses- 1

Ohio St: Q1 Wins- 5 , Q1/2 Record- 8-13, Road Record- 3-6 , Q3/4 Losses- 0

Arkansas: Q1 Wins- 4 , Q1/2 Record- 5-11 , Road Record- 3-5 , Q3/4 Losses- 0

Wake Forest: Q1 Wins- 2 , Q1/2 Record- 7-7 , Road Record- 6-5, Q3/4 Losses- 1

 

Bubble Out:

Indiana: Q1 Wins- 4 , Q1/2 Record- 7-11 , Road Record- 3-5, Q3/4 Losses- 0

Georgia: Q1 Wins- 2 , Q1/2 Record- 5-11 , Road Record- 1-7, Q3/4 Losses- 0

UNC: Q1 Wins- 1 , Q1/2 Record- 7-10 , Road Record- 5-6, Q3/4 Losses- 1

SMU: Q1 Wins- 0 , Q1/2 Record- 5-7 , Road Record- 6-2, Q3/4 Losses- 0

hskr4life

hskr4life

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12 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

What does our Bracketology look like for the Big Ten tournament? Are we a bubble team?

 

To be fair-- we could still finish bottom 3... most definitely. But it's a longshot. To be fair, we probably have one of the "nicer" 3 game finishes in the conference vs some of the others toward the bottom.

 

Washington must win 3/4 of the following to tie us: @Wisco, Indiana, @USC, Oregon

Penn State must win 2/3 of the following to tie us: @Indiana, Maryland, @Wisconsin

Northwestern must win 2/4 of the following to tie us: @Minny, Iowa, UCLA, @Maryland

Shawn Eichorst's Toupee

Shawn Eichorst's Toupee

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6 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

What does our Bracketology look like for the Big Ten tournament? Are we a bubble team?

 

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big10m

 

I'm sure someone has this mapped out with what's possible, but I think we could finish anywhere from 8th to 17th. But that obviously requires a lot of upsets either way. 

 

Realistically, I'd say:

  • 3-0 = 9 seed
  • 2-1 = 10 seed
  • 1-2 = 12 seed
  • 0-3 = 16 seed

Too many games left and too much of a logjam at the 9-15 range of the standings.

cozrulz

cozrulz

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14 minutes ago, AGHANSEN said:

It would be nice to be a 9 seed in the Big Ten tournament, because that would be another quad 1 opportunity playing the 8 seed. I don't think the committee really values the conference tournaments that much unless you really go on a heater. 

 

I was wondering about this.  Say we only win 1 more game in the regular season but win 3 in the conference tournament.  How much weight do wins in conference tournaments even have (besides the championship)?  Doesn't seem like a lot.

hskr4life

hskr4life

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6 minutes ago, cozrulz said:

 

I was wondering about this.  Say we only win 1 more game in the regular season but win 3 in the conference tournament.  How much weight do wins in conference tournaments even have (besides the championship)?  Doesn't seem like a lot.


Personally believe the committee has their bracket and alternates pretty much wrapped by Thursday(ish). So maybe a Wednesday bad loss taken into account, but wins not so much.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

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Just now, hskr4life said:

Personally believe the committee has their bracket and alternates pretty much wrapped by Thursday(ish). So maybe a Wednesday bad loss taken into account, but wins not so much.

 

Is that before or after the committee hits a round of golf, drinks scotch in the clubhouse, and smokes cigars made out of media rights money?

OmahaHusker

OmahaHusker

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45 minutes ago, hskr4life said:


Personally believe the committee has their bracket and alternates pretty much wrapped by Thursday(ish). So maybe a Wednesday bad loss taken into account, but wins not so much.

 

This is correct. Conference tourney games mean very little anymore unless there's a bid stealer. 

89Husker

89Husker

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yes, Georgia won last night.  But Baylor and Pitt lost.  That's life on the bubble, right? It's not just us and Georgia.  Big picture I think yesterday was okay for us in the "how did bubble teams do?" world. 

hskr4life

hskr4life

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20 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Ok... Ok. We're firmly on the bubble. Sadly. We've done enough to be in and out at the same time. Michigan, @Maryland, USC, Rutgers... the list of what ifs goes on and on. But, the bubble is unbelievably soft this year. Bubble teams are awful. Our resume stacks up really well against them. So we better start rooting against them even more. 

Bubble Watch 2/25

 

- According to T-Rank, our biggest rooting interests tonight are Colorado State over Air Force (?), Iowa over Illinois, Murray St over Indiana St, Tulsa over SDSU, and TCU over West Virginia.

 

- My personal Bubble Watch:

 

Florida over Georgia-- GA shouldn't be near the bubble, but the SEC is getting a team in that is multiple games under .500, so we don't need GA getting a big win. They still appear in 15 brackets on BM.

 

Cincy over Baylor-- Baylor is more bubbly in and a mucked up B12 wouldn't hurt our chances. Cincy needs more than this one and finishes @Houston, KSU, @Ok St

 

GA Tech over Pitt-- Pitt is bubbly and just needs to keep losing.

 

Richmond over VCU-- A 2 bid A-10 is possible.....

 

Northwestern over Minny-- Need that NW win to stay a good win and Minny will likely be a Q3 no matter what they do the rest of the year.

 

New Mexico over San Diego St-- I think NM is more safely in than SDSU.

 

Santa Clara over Zaga-- Zaga, with a few more losses and not much resume meat, could be bubbly end of the year.


Georgia picked up a big win over Florida after almost blowing it. Could move them back into the field last 4 in. They finish @Texas, @South Carolina, Vandy. So three of the easier games they could ask for. But, nothing is easy in the SEC.

 

Cincy did beat Baylor! Moves the Bears down a peg, but also moves Cincy closer to the field. 
 

Pitt lost to Ga Tech and that’s a bad loss for a team on the bubble.

 

VCU won, as expected. NW took care of Minny.

 

SDSU won over New Mexico and for now they’ll both probably stay ahead of us.

 

Zaga won, which was likely, but it would have been nice if they lose.

 

Overall, as mentioned, not a terrible night on the bubble.

hskr4life

hskr4life

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Bubble Watch 2/26

 

- According to T-Rank, our biggest rooting interests tonight are Oregon St over San Francisco, USC over Ohio St, Kentucky over OU, Penn St over Indiana, Rice over Memphis. This is actually a pretty decent list today and I agree with all of them.

 

- My personal Bubble Watch:

 

Georgetown over UCONN-- While it wouldn't knock UCONN out, their resume is on the lighter side of things. They have that Q3 loss to Seton Hall, their loss to CU is on the verge of going Q3, and this loss to GTown would be a possible third Q3 loss.

 

A&M over Vandy-- Vandy is one of those SEC teams that looks to be in, but they aren't quite locked. They finish @A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, @Georgia. So four huge games that would give them Q1 wins or wins over other bubbly teams. We don't want the Q1 wins and will cross the bubble games when we get there.

 

K-State over UCF-- Not a huge game either way, but KSU is further away than UCF.

 

Fordham over George Mason-- There is talk that with a weak bubble, teams like GMU could steal a bid. So root against that.

 

Rhode Island over Dayton-- See above.

 

Evansville over Drake-- Drake is a nice story, but I don't want them stealing out bid. A loss here almost assures that.

 

Penn St @ Indiana-- a toss up maybe? A close Indiana win could keep PSU a Q1 loss AND move Indiana up to a Q2A win. But Indiana is also on the bubble, so... IDK.

 

Seton Hall over Nova-- Don't want Nova going on a run even though they aren't super close right now.

 

Kentucky over Oklahoma-- Keep Oklahoma dropping. They are tough at home though. OU will need more than this win, BUT it would be a good start for them.

 

Arizona over Utah-- The Craig Smithless Utes stilll would have a shot if they go on a run.

 

Virginia over Wake Forest-- I would say this is a huge bubble swing game for us as a loss likely damages Wake's resume bad. They can't afford to lose this one.

 

Creighton over DePaul-- Puke.. but we need that resume boost Creighton gives us when they win.

 

Texas @ Arkansas-- Toss up? Both are projected 11 seeds on BM and a loss likely drops one of them off right now.

 

USC over Ohio St-- keeps OSU off the bubble, keeps USC a Q2 loss, and Ohio St likely wouldn't move up to Q1 with a win anyways.

 

California over SMU-- SMU is bubbly and a loss here would be damaging.

 

Oregon St over San Francisco-- THE BIGGEST bubble game of the night doesn't tip until 10 PM. This is a double resume boost for us should Oregon St win. San Francisco is squarely on the bubble. A win over OSU would give their resume a boost. An OSU win for us improves our Non-Con SOS and could move them to a Q2A win.

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