Games Of Note/Bubble Watch 2024

[AuroranHusker]

10 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Q3 will remain unless they can climb back up into the top 75 to move to a Q2.

 

HOWEVER, at 161 they’d drop to a Q4.  I don’t think a move up or down in quads is in the cards barring a huge win/loss streak.

 

Having them win and jump up in the NET would be more for metrics improving than anything.

 

I didn't realize that Duquesne had dropped precipitously.

 

 

[Art Vandalay]

23 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Sorry, I didn't bother to look up his complete stats for this year and only used last night's performance. It wasn't intended as a critique of his talent. I was just wondering if our record would be much better as a team if we had to fit his talent into the team mix we have this year. Duke 77-69 Wake Forest (Feb 12, 2024) Box Score - ESPN

He is exactly what we need, can get to the hoop and shockingly knocking in 3s at 40% (watched him a lot this summer and I would have guessed more like 30%). He also D’s up, to bad he did not want to come home. We would be talking about seeding and not bubble, hopefully we make it and they don’t.

Edited February 13 by Art Vandalay

[hskr4life]

18 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

I didn't realize that Duquesne had dropped precipitously.

 

 

Unfortunately they looked like dog poo at the start of conference losing 5 straight and then winning 5/6.  They are firmly in the middle of the A10 standings but wasted a huge opportunity early in conference.

[49r]

32 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

We need to pull for Tim to knock off a few of these MWC bubble teams.

 

I wouldn't hold my breath on that if I were you. 

 

Tue Feb 13		227	Air Force	W, 70-67	62	62%	Home		×
Sat Feb 17		174	Wyoming	W, 73-72	66	54%	Home		×
Tue Feb 20		54	Boise St.	L, 78-63	65	8%	Away		×
Fri Feb 23		46	Nevada	L, 75-66	65	19%	Home		×
Tue Feb 27		20	San Diego St.	L, 80-61	65	4%	Away		×
Sat Mar 2		92	UNLV	L, 78-66	64	14%	Away		×
Wed Mar 6		40	Utah St.	L, 80-68	67	16%	Home		×
Projected record:								10-21	3-15

 

[jimmykc]

49 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

I didn't realize that Duquesne had dropped precipitously.

 

 

As I recall, they had a player who specialized in dropping precipitously. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, jimmykc said:

Sorry, I didn't bother to look up his complete stats for this year and only used last night's performance. It wasn't intended as a critique of his talent. I was just wondering if our record would be much better as a team if we had to fit his talent into the team mix we have this year. Duke 77-69 Wake Forest (Feb 12, 2024) Box Score - ESPN

Fair enough. I think it’s pretty clear he’d elevate us big time. I’m guessing we have more scoring options than Wake, so that would lighten his load a bit. I don’t know how he’s been on defense this year, but he definitely has the frame and athleticism to be great.

 

And the biggest reason he’d help is because he’d take all of Lawrence’s minutes and then some. Major upgrade.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

The three at home are definitely in the "should win" category. And given that they're all Quad 3, I'd call them "must-wins."

 

The three road games are all definitely in the "can win" category. But our road history is far from strong.

 

At Ohio State (NET #71) is our only remaining regular season Quad 1 opportunity.

 

At Indiana (#100) and at Michigan (#108) are both squarely in the Quad 2 category.

 

Obviously, winning cures everything. Remove any doubt by cleaning up at home, winning in Columbus, and then picking up a dub in EITHER Bloomington or Ann Arbor (preference would be Ann Arbor, a place we've never won and it would be nice to send Juwan Howard out with a home loss on senior night.)

One thing to note is if we do beat Ohio State, a home loss is going to knock them down a good amount. I’d say it’s very unlikely that both things happen: we beat them and it finishes the year as a Q1 win.

[millerhusker]

27 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Fair enough. I think it’s pretty clear he’d elevate us big time. I’m guessing we have more scoring options than Wake, so that would lighten his load a bit. I don’t know how he’s been on defense this year, but he definitely has the frame and athleticism to be great.

 

And the biggest reason he’d help is because he’d take all of Lawrence’s minutes and then some. Major upgrade.

I prefer our offense to Wake's. But they have 7 guys who are really talented individual offensive players and can go get their own shot on any given possession.

[royalfan]

1 hour ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

One thing to note is if we do beat Ohio State, a home loss is going to knock them down a good amount. I’d say it’s very unlikely that both things happen: we beat them and it finishes the year as a Q1 win.

If we win a fairly close one it will not move the needle much at all for them.  

[Norm Peterson]

 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, royalfan said:

If we win a fairly close one it will not move the needle much at all for them.  

NET is not happy when you lose at home. Even a close loss would be at least a 10 spot fall.

 

That would keep them within striking distance of 75, but they’d need to beat somebody they’re not expected to beat to get there.

[Ron Mexico]

10 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

Quite a few big games today.

 

Ole Miss at Kentucky: Strongly root for Kentucky. Ole Miss will feel very good about its NCAA chances with a win.

 

Iowa State at Cincinnati: Strongly root for Iowa State

 

New Mexico at Nevada: I assume we want New Mexico to win as they are probably somewhat safe into the tourney and Nevada is near the cutline. Toss-up game.

 

There are more. I'll let hskr4life work his magic later

 

 

OSU at Wiscy : Lean towards Wiscy do to keep that Q1 win.

Michigan at Illinois: Toss up?

Duquesne at Dayton: Duquesne do to the direct impact. Duquesne is solidly in the Q3 and will likely remain there.

Georgetown at Creighton: Creighton do to direct impact.

 

[hskr4life]

4 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

OSU at Wiscy : Lean towards Wiscy do to keep that Q1 win.

Michigan at Illinois: Toss up?

Duquesne at Dayton: Duquesne do to the direct impact. Duquesne is solidly in the Q3 and will likely remain there.

Georgetown at Creighton: Creighton do to direct impact.

 

Didn’t realize I forgot the Creighton game in my analysis above.  Shows how much I care about that program lol!

[AuroranHusker]

7 hours ago, jimmykc said:

As I recall, they had a player who specialized in dropping precipitously. 

 

You picked up what I was throwing down.

 

Edited February 14 by AuroranHusker

[hskr4life]

Lot of bubble games coming down to the wire here.  Pitts playing their way into the bubble conversation too!

[hskr4life]

Indiana State lost to a bad Illinois St team At home.  A Q4 loss!  Hopefully the Mo Valley ends up a 1 bid league.

[hskr4life]

Texas A&M with a bad loss to Vandy!

[unl]

26 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Lot of bubble games coming down to the wire here.  Pitts playing their way into the bubble conversation too!

A lot going our way!! No thanks to North Carolina. means the bubble team lost. means the bubble team won. Check out the Vanderbilt buzzer beater. I just retweeted it…great shot/luck. 
 

• Other Bubble Games
  • Marquette @ Butler
  • UNC @ Syracuse
  • Iowa St @ Cincinnati 
  • Illinois St @ Indiana St
  • St Johns @ Providence
  • Texas A&M @ Vandy
  • Drake @ Evansville
  • LSU @ Florida
  • UCF @ BYU
  • Ole Miss @ Kentucky
  • New Mexico @ Nevada

[hskr4life]

10 minutes ago, unl said:

A lot going our way!! No thanks to North Carolina. means the bubble team lost. means the bubble team won. Check out the Vanderbilt buzzer beater. I just retweeted it…great shot/luck. 
 

• Other Bubble Games
  • Marquette @ Butler
  • UNC @ Syracuse
  • Iowa St @ Cincinnati 
  • Illinois St @ Indiana St
  • St Johns @ Providence
  • Texas A&M @ Vandy
  • Drake @ Evansville
  • LSU @ Florida
  • UCF @ BYU
  • Ole Miss @ Kentucky
  • New Mexico @ Nevada

Watched that Vandy game live.  Didn’t see the shot get blocked initially so thought he traveled. 
 

Virginia losing does move Cuse closer to bubble but also probably eliminated Wakes chance at a Q1 win now too.

 

Indiana States loss is huge.  We most likely jump them in the NET or at least get very close.

 

One way for us to stay ahead of being on the bubble (outside of winning) is other bubble teams losing bad games and not picking up quality wins.  That’s happened for the most part tonight.

Edited February 14 by hskr4life

[unl]

Illinois state was 11-14. Indiana State was 22-3!!!!!! That is crazy. How many bids do they get?

[hskr4life]

5 minutes ago, unl said:

Illinois state was 11-14. Indiana State was 22-3!!!!!! That is crazy. How many bids do they get?

If Ind St wins out and loses conference championship game to Drake… mayyyybe two. But man.  A Q4 home loss in Feb hurts bad.  They have absolutely 0 room for error now and probably need help from others on the bubble.

 

They only fell 9 spots in Pom to 47.  Not a huge drop.  We’ll see what happens with result based metrics.

[AuroranHusker]

If Ohio St. had any inkling of changing its fortunes, it is not going to be in Madison, Wisconsin, tonight.

 

Game is on that peacock streaming service, btw.

 

[hhcmatt]

8 hours ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Fair enough. I think it’s pretty clear he’d elevate us big time. I’m guessing we have more scoring options than Wake, so that would lighten his load a bit. I don’t know how he’s been on defense this year, but he definitely has the frame and athleticism to be great.

 

And the biggest reason he’d help is because he’d take all of Lawrence’s minutes and then some. Major upgrade.

 

The thing that's it's tough to account for when you're drag and dropping players like this is how does Sallis handle having to play PG for Fred and how does Lawrence look then moving back to SG. Regardless we're likely a better team with Sallis given that we're getting zero from Boogie.

[royalfan]

5 hours ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

NET is not happy when you lose at home. Even a close loss would be at least a 10 spot fall.

 

That would keep them within striking distance of 75, but they’d need to beat somebody they’re not expected to beat to get there.

No way would drop ten with close loss from what I can gather.  Been wrong many times before though.  Let’s hope we find out!

[hskr4life]

27 minutes ago, royalfan said:

No way would drop ten with close loss from what I can gather.  Been wrong many times before though.  Let’s hope we find out!

Good judge will be how far Ind State drops tomorrow.  A Q4 home loss by more than 10.  Only dropped them 9 spots in Pom.