49r Posted January 19, 2018 Report Posted January 19, 2018 @Norm Peterson the RPI hasn't been updated yet, but it'll be interesting to see how things change today... Quote
49r Posted January 25, 2018 Report Posted January 25, 2018 KenPom: Projected record: 20-11 11-7 Quote
49r Posted January 25, 2018 Report Posted January 25, 2018 RealTime RPI 01-27 Iowa 11-11 (2-7) 143 79-68 W - Scouting 01-29 at Wisconsin 10-11 (3-5) 138 71-76 L - Scouting 02-06 at Minnesota 14-9 (3-7) 100 68-76 L - Scouting 02-10 Rutgers 11-10 (2-7) 189 78-68 W - Scouting 02-13 Maryland 14-7 (4-5) 52 79-71 W - Scouting 02-18 at Illinois 10-11 (1-8) 158 72-76 L - Scouting 02-20 Indiana 12-9 (5-4) 111 76-68 W - Scouting 02-25 Penn St. 13-8 (3-5) 133 77-68 W - Scouting Current Record: 15-8 (6-4) GAMER Projected Record: 19-12 (10-8) Quote
PimpMario Posted January 25, 2018 Report Posted January 25, 2018 We were supposed to be Rutgers. That doesn't mean we would.My wife asked me if we were supposed to win last night and I said yes."Then why are you so nervous?' Quote
49r Posted January 25, 2018 Report Posted January 25, 2018 RPI Forecast: Final Record Expected RPI Probability 23-8 42.1 0.31% 22-9 52.1 2.69% 21-10 63.5 10.47% 20-11 77.3 22.15% 19-12 94.1 28.57% 18-13 112.6 22.76% 17-14 132.1 10.32% 16-15 151.9 2.48% 15-16 168.8 0.24% Quote
royalfan Posted January 27, 2018 Report Posted January 27, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 8:59 AM, PimpMario said: We were supposed to be Rutgers. That doesn't mean we would. My wife asked me if we were supposed to win last night and I said yes. "Then why are you so nervous?' We were small underdogs in the game. Quote
49r Posted February 7, 2018 Report Posted February 7, 2018 KenPom still says 3-2 in the last 5: Sat Feb 10 153 Rutgers W, 69-58 66 84% Home × Tue Feb 13 39 Maryland W, 71-69 66 57% Home × Sun Feb 18 94 Illinois W, 74-73 70 51% Away × Tue Feb 20 80 Indiana W, 71-65 66 70% Home × Sun Feb 25 44 Penn St. W, 72-69 68 59% Home × Projected record: 21-10 12-6 Quote
Chuck Taylor Posted February 7, 2018 Report Posted February 7, 2018 I don't have a problem with the statistical analysis, their formulas make the most sense in objectively seeing what's going on. But they do miss some things, like what's going on in Lincoln. Quote
49r Posted February 7, 2018 Report Posted February 7, 2018 RPI Forecast now gives us better than 4.5% shot of winning out! Final Record Expected RPI Probability 23-8 44.6 4.59% 22-9 55.5 20.58% 21-10 67.3 36.16% 20-11 82.8 27.30% 19-12 100.4 10.02% 18-13 117.8 1.34% 2-10 Rutgers (214.0) B10 H 0-0 80% 9.2 2-13 Maryland (54.7) B10 H 0-0 45% -1.4 2-18 Illinois (152.2) B10 A 0-0 41% -2.4 2-20 Indiana (116.9) B10 H 0-0 61% 3.0 2-25 Penn St. (88.0) B10 H 0-0 51% 0.2 Quote
jdostal Posted February 7, 2018 Report Posted February 7, 2018 RPI Forecast seems to use a similar model as whoever keeps putting money against Nebraska in Vegas. We had a 36% chance against Minny last night, or a loss of 4 points. I like our chances of finishing better than RPI Forecast expects. Norm Peterson and Red Don 1 1 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, jdostal said: RPI Forecast seems to use a similar model as whoever keeps putting money against Nebraska in Vegas. We had a 36% chance against Minny last night, or a loss of 4 points. I like our chances of finishing better than RPI Forecast expects. This RPI stuff is a lot of garbage in/garbage out kinda stuff. They didn't think much of us to begin the season. Not sure where RPI Forecast had us ranked, but probably well outside the top 100 teams. So, to them, our success looks like us just playing over our heads for most of the season as opposed to actually being that good. Or even being BETTER than that but just not playing up to our potential. The fact that we keep winning more than they've predicted, despite the fact that we've already been winning more than was predicted, tells me that most of these computers are set up to assume that we are the team they thought we were to begin with and that if we win a game we're not supposed to, it's more of a "we snuck a win" situation than "we're better than you thought" situation. I say that because their predictions have not yet caught up with how good this team is and I would be SHOCKED if we only win 3 more games after what we did in the last 5. Red Don, Swan88 and Silverbacked1 1 2 Quote
royalfan Posted February 7, 2018 Report Posted February 7, 2018 It is somewhat normal for computers to lag behind. It is not normal for Vegas to lag behind so long on a team in a power conference. Quote
Red Don Posted February 8, 2018 Report Posted February 8, 2018 (edited) 23 hours ago, Norm Peterson said: This RPI stuff is a lot of garbage in/garbage out kinda stuff. They didn't think much of us to begin the season. Not sure where RPI Forecast had us ranked, but probably well outside the top 100 teams. So, to them, our success looks like us just playing over our heads for most of the season as opposed to actually being that good. Or even being BETTER than that but just not playing up to our potential. The fact that we keep winning more than they've predicted, despite the fact that we've already been winning more than was predicted, tells me that most of these computers are set up to assume that we are the team they thought we were to begin with and that if we win a game we're not supposed to, it's more of a "we snuck a win" situation than "we're better than you thought" situation. I say that because their predictions have not yet caught up with how good this team is and I would be SHOCKED if we only win 3 more games after what we did in the last 5. Are we talking about MBB here? Or Women's? Or Both? Edit: It seems that Neither program are getting much Respect from KenPom, or Sagarin! Huskers (18-8) (9-4) KenPom ranking #81 75 79 81 85 67 65 63 61 57 61 57 (thru 2/6/18); (#98 pre-season) Husker Ladies (17-7) (8-3), Sagarin ranking: #53 (@ 2/4/18) (#167 @ 4/2/17)Husker Ladies, ranked #53 don't get much respect from Sagarin, still well behind teams we have defeated, #37 Minnesota, #31 Iowa (Twice), and #32 Rutgers. Guess we'll just have to beat Michigan State Too! Edited February 8, 2018 by Red Don Quote
Bugeaters1 Posted February 8, 2018 Report Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Red Don said: Are we talking about MBB here? Or Women's? Or Both? Men's i'm sure. Quote
Silverbacked1 Posted February 8, 2018 Report Posted February 8, 2018 5 hours ago, Norm Peterson said: This RPI stuff is a lot of garbage in/garbage out kinda stuff. They didn't think much of us to begin the season. Not sure where RPI Forecast had us ranked, but probably well outside the top 100 teams. So, to them, our success looks like us just playing over our heads for most of the season as opposed to actually being that good. Or even being BETTER than that but just not playing up to our potential. The fact that we keep winning more than they've predicted, despite the fact that we've already been winning more than was predicted, tells me that most of these computers are set up to assume that we are the team they thought we were to begin with and that if we win a game we're not supposed to, it's more of a "we snuck a win" situation than "we're better than you thought" situation. I say that because their predictions have not yet caught up with how good this team is and I would be SHOCKED if we only win 3 more games after what we did in the last 5. I agree and I also think that there are too many teams in the NCAA that play basketball. Because of that some teams like us start so far down that it is really, really, really hard to move up. I think or feel it is like too many other things in sports now where every little thing has become it's on money making adventure. We have what 91 web sites that tells who is in and out of the tournament? We have how many web sites of experts who do RPI? We have how many web sites of experts that tell us the order of how good each high school player in America is? Too many experts, not enough just let it play out. Coaches kid 1 Quote
Silverbacked1 Posted February 8, 2018 Report Posted February 8, 2018 Oh and after rereading my last note. GET OFF MY LAWN NUtball 1 Quote
AuroranHusker Posted February 8, 2018 Report Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Silverbacked1 said: Oh and after rereading my last note. GET OFF MY LAWN NUtball 1 Quote
49r Posted February 12, 2018 Report Posted February 12, 2018 Getting down to the nitty-gritty: Final Record Expected RPI Probability 23-8 43.9 6.05% 22-9 55.3 24.41% 21-10 67.4 37.01% 20-11 82.4 25.91% 19-12 99.0 6.61% 2-13 Maryland (57.2) B10 H 0-0 45% -1.5 2-18 Illinois (161.9) B10 A 0-0 43% -1.9 2-20 Indiana (112.6) B10 H 0-0 59% 2.5 2-25 Penn St. (79.6) B10 H 0-0 51% 0.2 Quote
AuroranHusker Posted February 12, 2018 Report Posted February 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, 49r said: Getting down to the nitty-gritty: Final Record Expected RPI Probability 23-8 43.9 6.05% 22-9 55.3 24.41% 21-10 67.4 37.01% 20-11 82.4 25.91% 19-12 99.0 6.61% 2-13 Maryland (57.2) B10 H 0-0 45% -1.5 2-18 Illinois (161.9) B10 A 0-0 43% -1.9 2-20 Indiana (112.6) B10 H 0-0 59% 2.5 2-25 Penn St. (79.6) B10 H 0-0 51% 0.2 So, Nebraska is now an underdog to both Maryland & Illinois this week. Last week it was NU slightly favored in the final four games. Interesting...... Norm Peterson 1 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted February 12, 2018 Author Report Posted February 12, 2018 So, "They" think there's a better chance that we lose out than that we win out? With 3 out of 4 remaining games at home and the only road game against a team at the bottom of league standings? Tells me the computers still believe they were right about us at the outset of the season and that we've been overachieving this whole time. The computers are wrong. One thing that concerns me is our expected RPI if we lose even one game. Puts us lower than where we are today. But winning out puts us squarely on the right side of the bubble. Red Don, Vinny, NUtball and 1 other 1 3 Quote
Red Don Posted February 12, 2018 Report Posted February 12, 2018 Interesting that 'they' think we have more of a chance of winning only one more game than they think we have of winning three (out of the four remaining games). But I guess it makes sense, in a way. It just goes to show that it goes back to what a lot of us were saying at the beginning of the season; 'They' just don't know what 'We' know about this team! Quote
49r Posted February 14, 2018 Report Posted February 14, 2018 (edited) In the least surprising news ever, KenPom has upped the record projecton to 22-9 and 13-5. IIRC, We've never won 13 conference games in one season. Ever. Edited February 14, 2018 by 49r Quote
Nebrasketball1979 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, 49r said: In the least surprising news ever, KenPom has upped the record projecton to 22-9 and 13-5. IIRC, We've never won 13 conference games in one season. Ever. So, it looks like his Computer is going to keep fighting us until the bitter end when the buzzer sounds against Penn St and we're 14-4. We have and will continue to own you KenPom! Bugeaters1 and NUtball 2 Quote
49r Posted February 14, 2018 Report Posted February 14, 2018 We've more than doubled our chance of winning out: Final Record Expected RPI Probability 23-8 43.5 13.38% 22-9 54.2 38.71% 21-10 66.2 36.41% 20-11 81.5 11.49% 2-18 Illinois (171.6) B10 A 0-0 46% -1.1 2-20 Indiana (111.6) B10 H 0-0 60% 2.7 2-25 Penn St. (73.5) B10 H 0-0 49% -0.2 Quote
jdostal Posted February 14, 2018 Report Posted February 14, 2018 And kenpom, which has been a bit slow on the Huskers but still higher on us than RPI Forecast, gives us a 22% chance of winning out. Quote
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