Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 We are what we are. But the stats guys are going to have to put pencil to paper and do some refiguring on what to expect from us from here on out. Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) KenPom should be updated soon, Norm. Just as a point of reference, before the game tonight he had us at 16-15 and 7-11 Edited January 3, 2018 by 49r Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 ...LOL and of the 40 games that were played tonight, KenPom has updated the box scores and rankings from 39 of those games. Which one is last? You guessed it... Quote
HuskerPower #nato73 Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 I am two time zones ahead of Nebraska currently so it’s 1 am. And I just keep sitting here refreshing KenPom. rr52 and 49r 1 1 Quote
HuskerPower #nato73 Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) And there it is jumped up to 84 and 17-14 8-11 But after Purdue every game is under a 10 point spread and KenPom is not yet convinced that we can protect the vault. Edited January 3, 2018 by HuskerPower #nato73 49r and HolyBobpilgrimage 2 Quote
hskr4life Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said: And there it is jumped up to 84 and 17-14 8-11 But after Purdue every game is under a 10 point spread and KenPom is not yet convinced that we can protect the vault. Interesting that it didn’t move the needle much. Oh well, guess a road W at Purdue will sure things up! Not a game left on our schedule where I’m like... “That’s probably an L.” Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Didn't move the needle much? That popped us over ten spots! That, my friend, is a BIG jump at this point in the season. hhcmatt, Vinny, NUtball and 2 others 5 Quote
hskr4life Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 49r said: Didn't move the needle much? That popped us over ten spots! That, my friend, is a BIG jump at this point in the season. Sorry, I should have clarified with the record. Not the ranking, because that’s nice. But basically it saying that we win at NW but every other game stays the same right? Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 We have NO bad losses, nor will we, basically. And we have a couple of fairly quality wins. Sooooo ... yay us. Quote
TourneyBound Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 I’m sure @Kendrick Perkins can provide us with some solid stats and info.....?? Bugeaters1 and Shawn Eichorst's Toupee 2 Quote
hskr4life Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said: We have NO bad losses, nor will we, basically. And we have a couple of fairly quality wins. Sooooo ... yay us. Noir worst loss is a semi away game to UCF. If it remains that way, we will be sitting nice at the end of the year. Quote
cjbowbros Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 50 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said: And there it is jumped up to 84 and 17-14 8-11 But after Purdue every game is under a 10 point spread and KenPom is not yet convinced that we can protect the vault. I really don’t understand how we get ranked 84th with our total body of work compared to Northwestern who has a worse record and I don’t think any better strength of schedule than us. Or look at a team like Wisconsin they’re 9-7 and I can’t imagine their schedule is that much harder than ours and they’re ahead of us too Just wondering I know it doesn’t matter in the end (hopefully) NUtball 1 Quote
hhcmatt Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, cjbowbros said: I really don’t understand how we get ranked 84th with our total body of work compared to Northwestern who has a worse record and I don’t think any better strength of schedule than us They do have a tougher SOS. Also, they were ranked higher than us to start the season and we're still the same team that needed Tanner to step up to beat Stetson at home HolyBobpilgrimage and jdostal 1 1 Quote
cjbowbros Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, cjbowbros said: I really don’t understand how we get ranked 84th with our total body of work compared to Northwestern who has a worse record and I don’t think any better strength of schedule than us. Or look at a team like Wisconsin they’re 9-7 and I can’t imagine their schedule is that much harder than ours and they’re ahead of us too Just wondering I know it doesn’t matter in the end (hopefully) Okay this is by far the worst Penn State 42 spots above us. Same record much worst schedule. So Kenton may not be the most accurate representation of where we’re at right now. I do think you’re right though dimes the close wins against the last 3 teams probably hurt us a lot in ken Pom but won’t be something I see the comitee being too worried about Edited January 3, 2018 by cjbowbros HolyBobpilgrimage 1 Quote
HolyBobpilgrimage Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Someone here shared this other site, which has great advanced stats which are aggregated...long story, but in the end, you get tourney predictions all the way through at least 100 deep, first four out, etc. It's bracketmatrix.com. Check it out. I was blown away when I saw it. It's pretty good It's now 1 of the 3 tabs i keep on my phone, along with Kenpom and HHC. We'll see if it proves to be reliable I guess. But it's been an great unexpected resource so far. Still looking for more! Imo the college basketball tourney is the best designed tournament in all of sports. (Champions league right up there) I hope other sports take note. (The NBA imo could take lessons from this system) Quote
hhcmatt Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 6 hours ago, cjbowbros said: hurt us a lot in ken Pom but won’t be something I see the comitee being too worried about They're evaluating two different things. KenPom doesn't even really care about wins or loses...it's more about point differential because it's trying to predict future scores. For instance 0-13 Texas Southern kept rising in the rankings because it played nothing but good teams on the road and would often be closer than anticipated in winning. Us winning or losing by 1 vs Kansas wouldn't really change our rating. While it matters who you win and lose to the committee only cares about wins and loses and not the margin of victory. The committee is trying to evaluate what you've done, not predict what you're going to do. Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play: Strength of Schedule Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6 Overall: +1.29 142 0.00 Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00 Quote
HuskerActuary Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, 49r said: Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play: Strength of Schedule Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6 Overall: +1.29 142 0.00 Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00 Exactly, and this is why I'm still saying we need to get to 22 wins to feel good about NCAA tournament chances. Very long way to go. Quote
cjbowbros Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, 49r said: Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play: Strength of Schedule Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6 Overall: +1.29 142 0.00 Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00 I think absolute garbage is a little extreme there are some power 5 teams with SOS in the 300s. About half of the teams we’ve played are top 150 most of those are top 100. But yes obviously it’s not as good as last years. Which in my opinion is probably good we are in a great position and our schedule is probably a good reason for that. Quote
OmahaHusker Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 9 hours ago, Wolv77 said: Someone here shared this other site, which has great advanced stats which are aggregated...long story, but in the end, you get tourney predictions all the way through at least 100 deep, first four out, etc. It's bracketmatrix.com. Check it out. I was blown away when I saw it. It's pretty good It's now 1 of the 3 tabs i keep on my phone, along with Kenpom and HHC. We'll see if it proves to be reliable I guess. But it's been an great unexpected resource so far. Still looking for more! Imo the college basketball tourney is the best designed tournament in all of sports. (Champions league right up there) I hope other sports take note. (The NBA imo could take lessons from this system) It's a very good site to follow throughout the season. Will be interesting to see if we are projected in any of the brackets after last night's win once they all start updating. As of now we're still not in any of them and Northwestern is only projected to be in 1 of the 46 brackets on there. Kind of a bummer. HolyBobpilgrimage 1 Quote
hhcmatt Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, 49r said: Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play: Strength of Schedule Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6 Overall: +1.29 142 0.00 Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00 We're playing two extra conference games. If you include the Rutgers games as non-cons, we're looking at the low 200s which is approximately what we had making the tournament in 2014. I suspect our overall will be in the 30s, maybe a little lower. This isn't the same as RPI though which the committee will continue to use until they don't. HolyBobpilgrimage 1 Quote
aphilso1 Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 On a related but slightly different subject, I think we're starting to get enough data points to set a realistic ceiling and floor for where we'll end up in the standings. At this point I could see us ending up anywhere from 3rd to 11th. We're not finishing above MSU or Purdue, and we're likely not finishing below Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois. Anything else wouldn't shock me. Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 @49r in the past has pasted charts showing our percentage chance of winning our remaining games. I would really be curious to see how those percentages changed from yesterday at this time to now. Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 @Norm Peterson I scrape that data from the RPI Forecast site http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html It hasn't been updated yet to include the win last night but so far they have us slotted right at .500 still: Final Record Expected RPI Probability 22-9 45.7 0.03% 21-10 56.2 0.24% 20-11 69.0 0.92% 19-12 81.6 2.89% 18-13 98.7 7.10% 17-14 116.6 14.74% 16-15 136.0 20.76% 15-16 155.2 21.95% 14-17 173.3 17.04% 13-18 190.0 9.68% 12-19 206.2 3.54% 11-20 220.2 1.02% 10-21 235.2 0.08% Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 By the way I haven't put the RPI rankings up in a while but here's the Big Ten: RANK PREVIOUS SCHOOL CONFERENCE RECORD ROAD NEUTRAL HOME NON DIV I 14 16 Purdue Big Ten 13-2 2-0 2-2 9-0 0-0 28 27 Michigan St. Big Ten 14-1 1-0 4-1 9-0 0-0 37 47 Michigan Big Ten 13-3 2-2 2-1 8-0 1-0 47 49 Ohio St. Big Ten 11-4 1-0 1-3 9-1 0-0 53 55 Maryland Big Ten 13-3 1-1 2-1 9-1 1-0 58 53 Minnesota Big Ten 12-3 1-2 2-0 9-1 0-0 77 90 Nebraska Big Ten 11-5 1-3 2-1 8-1 0-0 97 75 Northwestern Big Ten 10-6 1-3 1-1 7-2 1-0 116 121 Wisconsin Big Ten 9-7 1-2 0-2 8-3 0-0 121 123 Illinois Big Ten 10-5 0-2 1-2 8-1 1-0 123 125 Penn St. Big Ten 11-5 2-2 1-1 8-2 0-0 144 135 Indiana Big Ten 8-7 0-4 1-0 7-3 0-0 174 163 Iowa Big Ten 9-7 0-3 3-2 6-2 0-0 215 216 Rutgers Big Ten 10-5 0-1 0-0 9-4 1-0 Quote
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