Big Ten Tourney scenarios

[huskerbaseball13]

Yeah, you are trying to prove me wrong.  You are going to great lengths for some reason.  And you still haven't.  That article is comical.  The link to the ESPN nitty gritty team link that they claim does not have conference record on it, has conference record on it.  Obviously, the selection folks have access to conference records and they obviously have access to RPI.  It is also obvious that neither one is very important at all in determining the field.  But to blanket claim it is never used is kind of silly.  There are times when it makes a lot of sense to use conference record in comparing two teams from the same conference, especially in leagues where there is a balanced schedule. 

 

Do you have any thoughts on Big 10 tourney bracket?  I have shared some before this idiotic argument of acting like the selection committee do not have conference records available to them. 

 

As I said, to me it's more important to know that they don't use that information in their discussions(even if it's available to them).  Them not using conference record...or conference RPI in their discussions for that matter...really makes whether or not it's on their nitty gritty report a moot point.  The discussion peaked my interest as I would have told you "as long as we finish top 6 in the Big Ten we are good."  Not the case apparently. 

[huskerbaseball13]

And what started this whole thing... And it states right in the article... That a good conference record means you'll probably have some good wins. So as I said 20 wins and an 11-7 record or whatever I would think gets us in... That would mean winning our last 5 which gives us 3 road wins and 2 quality wins. So they may not look at conference records, but if you have a better conference record... Your most likely getting the nod because of wins.

 

 

In most years I think you would be correct.  Not this year though.  If we win out that gives us 3 top 50 wins...4 top top 100 wins.  We would need to do some damage in the Big Ten Tournament.  Look at our friends in Omaha...some pundits don't even have them on the bubble right now and they may very well end up with 11 Big East wins.  The issue will be that out of those 11 wins...maybe only 2-3 were against top 50 teams. 

[hhcmatt]

And what started this whole thing... And it states right in the article... That a good conference record means you'll probably have some good wins. So as I said 20 wins and an 11-7 record or whatever I would think gets us in... That would mean winning our last 5 which gives us 3 road wins and 2 quality wins. So they may not look at conference records, but if you have a better conference record... Your most likely getting the nod because of wins.

 

Winning our last 5 would give us 19 wins.

[HuskerFever]

There's only one solution to combat this "nitty gritty report" issue...

 

[hskr4life]

There's only one solution to combat this "nitty gritty report" issue...

 

 

Are you saying Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?

[jason2486]

And what started this whole thing... And it states right in the article... That a good conference record means you'll probably have some good wins. So as I said 20 wins and an 11-7 record or whatever I would think gets us in... That would mean winning our last 5 which gives us 3 road wins and 2 quality wins. So they may not look at conference records, but if you have a better conference record... Your most likely getting the nod because of wins.

In most years I think you would be correct. Not this year though. If we win out that gives us 3 top 50 wins...4 top top 100 wins. We would need to do some damage in the Big Ten Tournament. Look at our friends in Omaha...some pundits don't even have them on the bubble right now and they may very well end up with 11 Big East wins. The issue will be that out of those 11 wins...maybe only 2-3 were against top 50 teams.

I think the reason that creighton is on the outside of the bubble is that the Big East is not perceived as a great conference. To me, it is a major "mid major conference." I hate to admit it, but they have been playing decent lately. Hopefully there little run comes to an end tonight.

[hhcmatt]

I think the reason that creighton is on the outside of the bubble is that the Big East is not perceived as a great conference.

 

This is a completely inaccurate statement about the Big East and how teams are chosen in general.

[49r]

I think losing to Loyola and Arizona State has a lot more to do with their low RPI than the conference they play in.

 

Edited to add:  They also had a very cupcake-y non-con...possibly softer than ours.

[jason2486]

I think the reason that creighton is on the outside of the bubble is that the Big East is not perceived as a great conference.

This is a completely inaccurate statement about the Big East and how teams are chosen in general.

Dimes I always respect your opinion, but I'm curious as to why you blasted my opinion. What has the Big East done since they became the new Big East? And you don't think conference opinion plays a part? Look at previous SEC teams have been neglected because of their conference not being great overall. Didn't one of their teams win their division and get left out of the Dance a couple of years ago? I want to say it was Georgia.

[49r]

As a conference, the Big East has the 4th highest RPI.  B1G is #5.

 

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confrpi.html

 

Now, there is a bit of gaming the system in play here, also a bit of luck.  But it is what it is and this year, nobody can blame the Big East's quality from holding themselves back.

[jason2486]

As a conference, the Big East has the 4th highest RPI. B1G is #5.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confrpi.html

Now, there is a bit of gaming the system in play here, also a bit of luck. But it is what it is and this year, nobody can blame the Big East's quality from holding themselves back.

I had heard they have a higher conference rpi, but if a team's rpi sounds like it's not as important as some have already discussed, does conference rpi hold much weight at the end either?

[royalfan]

The problem with rating conferences in general is that there is no generally accepted method of doing so.  Do you you average ranking?  Median ranking?  A combo?  Throw out best and worst?  Put less weight on the worst?  Then with different sizes of conference, it makes rating them even harder, as some leagues that are larger or smaller can be impacted more by the method used.  I don't know what method RPI uses.  Sagarin has Big 10 ahead of Big east.  The method they use gave me a headache.  It is a complex method it seemed.  Is that better?  I don't know. 

 

But I would generally agree that the conference RPI is going to be a less accurate set of rankings than most sets, so long as the method used to do the ranking is the same.  Why? Because the RPI is a less accurate ranking to begin with. 

 

At the end of the day, you have to use sense to rate them.  And you have to use similar set of power rankings Vegas uses.  That is the most accurate. 

[AuroranHusker]

 

And what started this whole thing... And it states right in the article... That a good conference record means you'll probably have some good wins. So as I said 20 wins and an 11-7 record or whatever I would think gets us in... That would mean winning our last 5 which gives us 3 road wins and 2 quality wins. So they may not look at conference records, but if you have a better conference record... Your most likely getting the nod because of wins.

 

Winning our last 5 would give us 19 wins.

 

 

I actually think Nebraska would need 21 wins this season with the poor RPI, so that's a 7-game win streak required to 'dance' in essence. That's a win already in the books over MSU (on the road); needing wins at Indiana, home vs Ohio State, at PSU, home vs Purdue, and at Northwestern followed by two wins in the B1G tourney (including a game, presumably, against one of the top-ranked conference opponents in the quarters). Tough stuff.

[hhcmatt]

 

 

I think the reason that creighton is on the outside of the bubble is that the Big East is not perceived as a great conference.

This is a completely inaccurate statement about the Big East and how teams are chosen in general.

Dimes I always respect your opinion, but I'm curious as to why you blasted my opinion. 

 

"Conference reputation" simply isn't a criteria. Also as noted elsewhere, there are some ratings that have the Big East higher than the B1G.

 

 

This:

 

I think losing to Loyola and Arizona State has a lot more to do with their low RPI than the conference they play in.

 

Edited to add:  They also had a very cupcake-y non-con...possibly softer than ours.

[royalfan]

I think we hear about "eye tests" being allowed to be weighed into the mix.  If someones "eye test" judges a conference in its entirety to be worse than it is being given credit for in the numbers, it could possibly lead to conference reputation being a factor IMO.  But I think Dimes is generally correct.

[bball23]

 

 

 

I think the reason that creighton is on the outside of the bubble is that the Big East is not perceived as a great conference.

This is a completely inaccurate statement about the Big East and how teams are chosen in general.

Dimes I always respect your opinion, but I'm curious as to why you blasted my opinion. 

 

"Conference reputation" simply isn't a criteria. Also as noted elsewhere, there are some ratings that have the Big East higher than the B1G.

 

 

This:

 

I think losing to Loyola and Arizona State has a lot more to do with their low RPI than the conference they play in.

 

Edited to add:  They also had a very cupcake-y non-con...possibly softer than ours.

 

The Big East as a conference may be rated higher in the RPI, but as somebody wrote a few weeks back (I can't remember the author) you have to take that with a grain of salt.  You take Rutgers and Minnesota out of the B10 and the conference RPI would be much higher.  Now, I know that you can say take Rutgers and DePaul as well.  But the article went on to say how 6 and possible 7 teams from the B10 may get into the dance, where the Big East could end up with only 3.  I know we have 14 and they only have 10, but the point of the article was to say don't look at RPI as much as you think it matters.

 

Tom Shatel had an article yesterday and Bruce Rasmussen who is on the committee said the RPI is actually barely considered when it comes to the NCAA tourney.  They look at the KenPom and stats like that more.  They look at schedule.  He used Indiana for example.  He said they only play the top half of the B10 like 5 times total, where Wisconsin has 9 games vs them.  

 

I actually am in agreement that I don't think the Big East is that great this year.  You have Xavier, Nova and Providence, then a bunch of mid-tier type teams this year.  GTown is down, CU is "ok" but not great by any means.  Butler is a flash in the pan type team.  St. Johns and DePaul are awful.  Seton Hall is another "flash in the pan" type team. Marquette is "average" at best.  

 

If things play out poorly for the Big East, it could end up just being a 3 bid league. 

[hhcmatt]

Tom Shatel had an article yesterday and Bruce Rasmussen who is on the committee said the RPI is actually barely considered when it comes to the NCAA tourney. 

 

Take a look at the official guidelines for the selection process and the only metric mentioned is the RPI.

I'm sure they look at a lot of different thing but I'd bet dollars to donuts that the RPI, which is going to reflect most of the rating systems out there anyway, is the starting point.

[hhcmatt]

But the article went on to say how 6 and possible 7 teams from the B10 may get into the dance, where the Big East could end up with only 3.  I know we have 14 and they only have 10, but the point of the article was to say don't look at RPI as much as you think it matters.

 

You're taking the max possible of B1G teams making the tournament and the min possible of Big East teams between two conferences with non-equal amount of members as an argument?

 

ATM Bracketmatrix.com has in

 

7 of 14 B1G teams (50%)

5 of 10 Big East teams (50%)

 

I do think that the B1G is tougher than the Big East. However, it's still a power conference that is in the league of ACC, B1G, B12, SEC, etc.

[bball23]

 

But the article went on to say how 6 and possible 7 teams from the B10 may get into the dance, where the Big East could end up with only 3.  I know we have 14 and they only have 10, but the point of the article was to say don't look at RPI as much as you think it matters.

 

You're taking the max possible of B1G teams making the tournament and the min possible of Big East teams between two conferences with non-equal amount of members as an argument?

 

ATM Bracketmatrix.com has in

 

7 of 14 B1G teams (50%)

5 of 10 Big East teams (50%)

 

I do think that the B1G is tougher than the Big East. However, it's still a power conference that is in the league of ACC, B1G, B12, SEC, etc.

 

Very true.  A lot will depend on these final 2 weeks, conference tourneys, etc...I just think the Big East (personally) is very top heavy.  Nova, Xavier and Providence, and everybody else.  But again, I guess we could say that about the B10 as well.  I just think the overall depth of the B10 is much better.  Again, my opinion and obviously I'm biased.  Plus, the B10 tends to do well in March, where the "New Big East" so far hasn't.

[Huskerpapa]

Perhaps this was posted by others earlier, but I read a BTN article that indicated that if the season were to end as is, we would play Ohio State in the (2nd) round and the winner of that game would take on Iowa. 

[AuroranHusker]

Perhaps this was posted by others earlier, but I read a BTN article that indicated that if the season were to end as is, we would play Ohio State in the (2nd) round and the winner of that game would take on Iowa. 

 

It's on Page 1. Here's a recap of the whole tourney (prior to last night's UM-OSU game):

 

[FredsSlacks]

 

Perhaps this was posted by others earlier, but I read a BTN article that indicated that if the season were to end as is, we would play Ohio State in the (2nd) round and the winner of that game would take on Iowa. 

 

It's on Page 1. Here's a recap of the whole tourney (prior to last night's UM-OSU game):

 

 

that'd be pretty ideal to be able to avoid mich st, purdue, indiana, and maryland.

[Red Rum]

I could have sworn I saw a graphic this morning that Nebraska would play Michigan State in that 8-9 game. That could have been old info, I might not have had my coffee yet, in any event I like this pairing better.

[AuroranHusker]

I could have sworn I saw a graphic this morning that Nebraska would play Michigan State in that 8-9 game. That could have been old info, I might not have had my coffee yet, in any event I like this pairing better.

 

This could be why...

 

[royalfan]

 

But the article went on to say how 6 and possible 7 teams from the B10 may get into the dance, where the Big East could end up with only 3.  I know we have 14 and they only have 10, but the point of the article was to say don't look at RPI as much as you think it matters.

 

You're taking the max possible of B1G teams making the tournament and the min possible of Big East teams between two conferences with non-equal amount of members as an argument?

 

ATM Bracketmatrix.com has in

 

7 of 14 B1G teams (50%)

5 of 10 Big East teams (50%)

 

I do think that the B1G is tougher than the Big East. However, it's still a power conference that is in the league of ACC, B1G, B12, SEC, etc.

 

 

No, it is not a power conference along the lines of those leagues. Power conferences have great athletic programs.  They generally have way more teams than the new watered down Big East.  They are somewhere a notch below.  How far below is debatable.  But it is not even close to as good a conference as the ACC Big 10 Big 12 etc.  Right now it is better than the SEC in basketball but it is cyclical and they typically aren't as good at the top anyway.  This conference plays in no mans land on FS1 that is struggling mightily.  Nothing screams power about it at all IMO.