Draft Express NBA prospects for the B1G Terran #4 great write up

[TheKamdyMan]

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Top-NBA-Prospects-in-the-Big-Ten-Part-4-Prospects-4-7-4743/

 

Pretty extensive write up about Terran's game and where he excels and where he struggles.  

[Norm Peterson]

Wow.  Very thorough.  His age weighs in favor of him wanting to jump after this season.  But there are some clear areas where he'll need to step up his game in order to be an NBA player.

 

I wouldn't be pissed if we had him for two more years.  Heck yeah I'd take having him back for his senior year.  But for his sake, he needs to be good enough this year to make that jump.

[49r]

What's the writer trying to say here???

 

"adding significant strength to his 6-6-6 frame,"

[TheKamdyMan]

What's the writer trying to say here???

 

"adding significant strength to his 6-6-6 frame,"

 

it was a very thorough write up so maybe he has ALL the measurements

[Norm Peterson]

 

What's the writer trying to say here???

 

"adding significant strength to his 6-6-6 frame,"

 

it was a very thorough write up so maybe he has ALL the measurements

 

I wasn't gonna say it. 

[49r]

Oh wow!  I was thinking someone would go in the "sold his soul" direction, but Kamdy, you zigged when everyone was expecting you to zag.

 

Kudos, POTD!

 

[colhusker]

What's the writer trying to say here???

 

"adding significant strength to his 6-6-6 frame,"

The kid is thick!

[jdostal]

That write up was really impressive.  I expected it to be more of a fly-by, let's look at his stats analysis, but they clearly watched a lot of film AND had impressive data.

[TheKamdyMan]

That write up was really impressive.  I expected it to be more of a fly-by, let's look at his stats analysis, but they clearly watched a lot of film AND had impressive data.

 

Honestly thats why I trust these guys analysis and probably why they win the mock draft battle every year for having the best percentage correct.  The writeups they do for college, high school, and foreign guys is always on point.  I met Jonathan a couple years back at the Nike Hoops Summit and Danny Ainge walked right up during and started talking to him.  That was the point when I knew this guy must be good to have NBA execs seek him out to talk shop.

[Timmy]

I think Petteway leaves this year.  I really don't see his stock fluctuating too much from coming out after this year to when he would come out his Senior year.  Because of that, might as well leave a year early and get a jump start on making some money.  

[Huskerpapa]

Shoot, I loved the article, but it depressed me a bit...our offense stinks, TP stinks...how did we ever win? 

[TheKamdyMan]

Shoot, I loved the article, but it depressed me a bit...our offense stinks, TP stinks...how did we ever win? 

 

Honestly it just goes to show you we had a good year yet still ranked so low on offense in the conference. Imagine what happens if they got better.

[ajb5856]

I'm going to venture a guess that we see Petteway's offensive efficiency increase this year. His shooting percentages all go up, in particular, his 3 point percentage. The article eluded to it, the fact that some of his numbers suffered because of the offensive load he shouldered last year. I think we see some help from additional offensive weapons this year, and as a result, Petteway will be way more efficient.

[Norm Peterson]

I wonder if anyone has ever charted the average improvement of college basketball players over their 4 years.  Shouldn't be tough.  I'm sure Kenpom has all the data.  The numbers just need to be crunched.  What's the average minutes/scoring/offensive efficiency/etc. for a freshman?  And by what measurable amount do those numbers increase from freshman to sophomore year?  What about for redshirts, including transfers?  How much better is the average senior than he was as a junior or as a sophomore?

 

I suspect players, on balance, will get better every year.  Their skills increase as their physical abilities improve, and their knowledge and understanding and feel for the game get better with every year they play.

 

The general consensus of opinion is that most of the improvement in a player's game happens between the freshman and sophomore years.  Some might stumble and have a sophomore slump like some accused Shields of having last year.  But, on balance, players continue to improve throughout their careers.

 

So, knowing his attitude and his work ethic, Terran Petteway will almost certainly be a better player this year than he was last year.  Knowing his attitude and his work ethic, Shavon Shields will almost certainly be a better player this year than he was last year.  Walter Pitchford, Tai Webster, David Rivers, Benny Parker, Nick Fuller -- none of them might improve by leaps and bounds but, across the board, they should all be better this coming season than they were the last season.

 

And not only will they be better individually, but they should also be better collectively.  The first ten games or more last year, they were clearly still trying to figure out their rolls and get a feel for their teammates and understand how things all fit together.  That part is done, though.  Already happened.  We get to start this year Miles ahead (see what I did there?) of where we were at this time last year.  Both individually and collectively.

 

I will be shocked -- SHOCKED -- if we backslide.

 

As for Terran and his draft stock, he won't shoulder as much of a load because of the aforesaid expected improvement of all the other pieces.  But what he does he will probably do much better than before.  Terran has the ability to be a pro.  It's just, does he make enough strides to elevate his game to 1st round draft pick status or not. 

[hhcmatt]

The general consensus of opinion is that most of the improvement in a player's game happens between the freshman and sophomore years.

 

Is it? A lot of time I hear Sophomore to Junior

[royalfan]

Need to read more stuff they put out.  Very impressive.  Someone watches more basketball than I do.  That is good to know. 

[Norm Peterson]

 

The general consensus of opinion is that most of the improvement in a player's game happens between the freshman and sophomore years.

 

Is it? A lot of time I hear Sophomore to Junior

 

This is the first I've ever heard that.  Only ever heard most improvement after freshman year before this.  You could be right, and, statistically, there might be evidence of it.  It would make sense since most of the time, by the time a player reaches their junior year, they make the jump from role player to key player due to graduations of more experienced players in front of them.  But, in terms of skill level, most learning curves are smooth curves and not jagged.  Goes along with the 80/20 rule: 80% of the result is achieved with 20% of the effort.  The first 20% of effort happens before the beginning of the sophomore season, typically.  By the end of the sophomore year, a kid should be well-schooled and just working on tweaking their games while waiting for their turn to enter the starting lineup.

[jimmykc]

I would think that it would be a statistical impossibility to separate ability and skills from opportunity. Obviously all increase with time. And at the college level, bodies are still maturing as are the (in some cases) personalities. Suffice it to say, seniors are always better to have on a team than freshmen if their physical abilities are equivalent.

[Norm Peterson]

I would think that it would be a statistical impossibility to separate ability and skills from opportunity. Obviously all increase with time. And at the college level, bodies are still maturing as are the (in some cases) personalities. Suffice it to say, seniors are always better to have on a team than freshmen if their physical abilities are equivalent.

That's probably true, although I would imagine Kenpom could develop some sort of algorithm. 

 

But you've identified the problem, which is that a kid's stats might go up just because of greater opportunity that comes about when older players graduate.  Does that increase in productivity relate to increase in skill or increase in opportunity?  You're scoring more because you're playing more and therefore get more touches.

 

Of course, improvement could be a function of opportunity:  You get better because you had more live repetitions.

 

But that's a very good question, Jimmy. 

 

I've always just taken it for granted that a player should always improve from year to year.  Not all do, of course, but on balance players continue to get better over time as they perfect their game.  It just makes intuitive sense, right?  It also makes intuitive sense that the biggest strides should occur early when they have the most to learn.

[hhcmatt]

 

 

The general consensus of opinion is that most of the improvement in a player's game happens between the freshman and sophomore years.

 

Is it? A lot of time I hear Sophomore to Junior

 

This is the first I've ever heard that.  Only ever heard most improvement after freshman year before this.  You could be right, and, statistically, there might be evidence of it.  It would make sense since most of the time, by the time a player reaches their junior year, they make the jump from role player to key player due to graduations of more experienced players in front of them.  But, in terms of skill level, most learning curves are smooth curves and not jagged.  Goes along with the 80/20 rule: 80% of the result is achieved with 20% of the effort.  The first 20% of effort happens before the beginning of the sophomore season, typically.  By the end of the sophomore year, a kid should be well-schooled and just working on tweaking their games while waiting for their turn to enter the starting lineup.

 

 

The numbers back up Freshman to Sophomore

[Norm Peterson]

Well, there you go.  Thanks, Dimes.

[Norm Peterson]

Dimes, that article and the links are pretty fascinating reading.  Good find.  I'd give you another up arrow on that if I could.

[hhcmatt]

 

Well, there you go.  Thanks, Dimes.

 

The payoff from the Big Ten Geeks

 

The big, overarching conclusion is this: a player shows the most improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons than he does any other offseason. In fact, the freshman offseason improvement is, on average, greater than the improvement between a player's sophomore season and his senior season. That's not to say every player follows this pattern. There are lots and lots of exceptions, and this is no hard-and-fast rule. It's just a remark about the averages. And frankly, that's all we do around here, play the averages.

 

The odds are in favor of us looking back at the end of the year and noting that Tai Webster was the most improved player.

[Ron Mexico]

BTW, belated happy B-Day to TP!

[Norm Peterson]

OK, Jimmy, so the answer to your question (about separating skill improvement versus improvement that comes with increased opportunity) is the tempo-adjusted or tempo-free stat.

 

The tempo-adjusted stat is going to adjust for opportunity, so it's not points per game so much as points per possession.  Points should obviously go up if you jump from playing 10 minutes on average to 20 minutes.  But if you go from scoring 1 point in every 30 possessions to 1 point every 15 possessions, then you've doubled your productivity.

 

And the links in the link provided by Dimes are pretty interesting, I must say.

 

From 2006-2009, 65% of sophomores improved their offensive efficiency rating compared to their freshmen year.  At the same time, 58% of juniors improved over their sophomore year and 55% of seniors improved over their junior year.