B1G Tourney Bracket Projections - thru 3/5

[kleitus]

If I remember correctly, at worse we can be a 5 seed now

If we beat wisconsin that is correct.  If not, it's 6th.  tying with iowa involved in any way shape or form knocks us down.  If we lose to wisconsin, the tiebreaker against ohio state also goes their way.  so we'd have to have OSU lose another game in order to finish 5th.

[hhcmatt]

3rd

 

 

6th

[kleitus]

now that i'm thinking about it... i want #4 and i want to play iowa.

 

we're a totally different team than we were when we played a close one in their house.  I want another shot.

[AuroranHusker]

 

 

 

If I remember correctly, at worse we can be a 5 seed now

Unfortunately, you didn't remember correctly or were misinformed. 

 

 

There's a lot of misinformation out about that "#5 being the worst case".... as it stands, NU can still finish from 2nd to 6th!  Now, that #2 slot may be out the window later tonight...

 

How can we finish 2nd? Wisconsin has a 2 game lead on us with one to play. Best we can finish is 3rd as I look at it.

 

 

True, that possibility was BEFORE Bucky's past ballgame... didn't update my hopes & dreams up the B1G heirarchy!

[hhcmatt]

now that i'm thinking about it... i want #4 and i want to play iowa.

 

we're a totally different team than we were when we played a close one in their house.  I want another shot.

 

When the going gets tough, the Hawkeyes start folding

[AuroranHusker]

 

now that i'm thinking about it... i want #4 and i want to play iowa.

 

we're a totally different team than we were when we played a close one in their house.  I want another shot.

 

When the going gets tough, the Hawkeyes start folding

 

 

I've often referred to Iowegia as the Squeak-eyes or the Squawk-eyes. 

[GoBigRed]

For what it's worth, after tonight's results our official B1G finish will be either 4th or T-4th (obviously seeding could be 4-6).

[throwback]

NU now can be seeded 4th, 5th, or 6th.

 

To clinch the #4 seed:

• NU def. Wisconsin

--OR--

• NU lose to Wisconsin -- AND -- Iowa loses to Illinois -- AND -- OSU loses to MSU

 

 

Current standings through 3/6:

1. 14-3 Michigan
2. 12-5 Wisconsin (1-0 vs MSU)
3. 12-5 Mich St (0-1 vs Wis)
4. 10-7 NEBRASKA 
5.   9-8 Iowa (1-1 vs OSU) ... (1-1 vs Mich)
6.   9-8 Ohio St (1-1 vs Iowa) ... (0-1 vs Mich)
7.   7-10 Minnesota (1-0 vs Ind)
8.   7-10 Indiana (0-1 vs Minn)
9.   6-11 Illinois (2-0 vs PSU)
10.   6-11 Penn St (0-2 vs Ill)
11.   5-12 Northwestern (1-0 vs Pur)
12.   5-12 Purdue (0-1 vs NW)

Bracket if tourney “began today”:

• 11 AM - 9/Illinois vs 8/Indiana … Winner plays 1/Mich
• 1:30 PM - 12/Purdue vs 5/Iowa … Winner plays 4/NEBRASKA
• 5:30 PM - 10/Penn St vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin
• 8 PM - 11/Northwestern vs 6/Ohio St … Winner plays 3/Mich St

Projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com:

1. 15-3 Michigan
2. 13-5 Wisconsin
3. 12-6 Mich St
4. 10-8 Iowa (2-1 vs Neb/OSU)
5. 10-8 Ohio St (2-2 vs Neb/Iowa)
6. 10-8 NEBRASKA (1-2 vs Iowa/OSU)
7.   8-10 Minnesota 
8.   7-11 Indiana 
9.   6-12 Illinois (2-1 vs Pur/PSU) ... (.000 vs Mich & Wis) ... (1-1 vs MSU)
10.   6-12 Purdue (2-1 vs Ill/PSU) ... (.000 vs Mich & Wis) ... (0-1 vs MSU)
11.   6-12 Penn St (1-3 vs Pur/Ill)
12.   5-13 Northwestern 

Bracket projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com:

• 11 AM - 9/Illinois vs 8/Indiana … Winner plays 1/Michigan
• 1:30 PM - 12/Northwestern vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa
• 5:30 PM - 10/Purdue vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin
• 8 PM - 11/Penn St vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Mich St

 

 

Remaining games/tie-breaker options:

 

("W or L" is a game projected by RPIForecast as 7 pts or more margin, "close W or L" is projected as a 2.5 pt to 6.5 pt margin, "toss-up W or L" is projected as 1 pt or 2 pt margin)

 

• ILLINOIS 6-11 – projected 6-12
• Possible seed range: 7 through 11
• Projected seed: 9

At Iowa (L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Minn, PSU (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: NW, Pur, Wis (0-2), OSU (0-2), Iowa (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Mich* (0-0), Ind, Neb, MSU

*Game remaining

 

• INDIANA 7-10 – projected 7-11
• Possible seed range: 7 through 10
• Projected seed: 8

At Michigan (L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Iowa, OSU

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn, Pur, MSU (0-2), Neb (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Ill, PSU, NW, Wis

*Game remaining

 

• IOWA 9-8 – projected 10-8
• Possible seed range: 4 through 6
• Projected seed: 4

Illinois (W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Ill*, Neb, PSU, Pur, NW (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind, Wis (0-2), MSU (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Mich, OSU, Minn

*Game remaining

 

• MICHIGAN 14-3 – projected 15-3
• Clinched seed: 1

Indiana (W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Ill, NW, PSU, OSU, Neb (2-0), MSU (2-0), Pur (2-0), Minn (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*

Tied season series: Iowa, Wis

*Game remaining

 

• MICHIGAN STATE 12-5 – projected 12-6
• Possible seed range: 2 or 3
• Projected seed: 3

At Ohio St (close L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: OSU*, Minn, Pur, NW (2-0), Ind (2-0), PSU (2-0), Iowa (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb, Wis, Mich (0-2)

Tied season series: Ill

*Game remaining

 

• MINNESOTA 7-10 – projected 8-10
• Possible seed range: 7 through 10
• Projected seed: 7

Penn St (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: PSU*, Ind

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb, Ill, MSU, Mich (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Wis, OSU, Pur, NW, Iowa

*Game remaining

 

• NEBRASKA 10-7 – projected 10-8
• Possible seed range: 4 through 6
• Projected seed: 6

Wisconsin (close L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: MSU, Minn, NW (2-0). Ind (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa, Mich (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), OSU, PSU, Pur, Ill

*Game remaining

 

• NORTHWESTERN 5-12 – projected 5-13
• Possible seed range: 10 through 12
• Projected seed: 12

At Purdue (close L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, Ill

Unfavorable tiebreaker: PSU, OSU, Mich, Iowa (0-2), MSU (0-2), Neb (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Wis, Minn, Ind

*Game remaining

 

• OHIO STATE 9-8 – projected 10-8
• Possible seed range: 4 through 6
• Projected seed: 5

Michigan St (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Wis, NW, Pur (2-0), Ill (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Mich, Ind, PSU (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa, Neb, Minn

*Game remaining

 

• PENN STATE 6-11 – projected 6-12
• Possible seed range: 9 through 11
• Projected seed: 11

At Minnesota (close L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: NW, OSU (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Mich, Iowa, Wis, MSU (0-2), Ill (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Neb, Pur, Ind

*Game remaining

 

• PURDUE 5-12 – projected 6-12
• Possible seed range: 9 through 12
• Projected seed: 10

Northwestern (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Ind, Ill

Unfavorable tiebreaker: NW*, MSU, Iowa, OSU (0-2), Mich (0-2), Wis (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Minn, PSU, Neb

*Game remaining

 

• WISCONSIN 12-5 – projected 13-5
• Possible seed range: 2 or 3
• Projected seed: 2

At Nebraska (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: MSU, PSU, Iowa (2-0), Ill (2-0), Pur (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: OSU 

Tied season series: Neb* (0-0), Mich, Minn, NW, Ind

*Game remaining

[kleitus]

I think we're rooting for michigan state against OSU on sunday too... just in case.  i know i'm a bit of a broken record, but i want iowa in the quarters, even if we have to play another game before we get them.  it gives us some insurance if we lose for a more favorable matchup.  iowa's good but they're playing terrible and we'll have zero difficulty getting up for that game.  It's the 4th game in 4 days that kills you, not the second one.

 

I'll take my chances with michigan in the semis instead of having to run the gauntlet of MSU, Wisconsin (in whatever order), THEN michigan.

[PimpMario]

I couldn't care less about the B1G tournament right now.  Not at all.

 

Beat Wisconsigan on Sunday and then who cares about the B1G tournament.

[Cookie Belcher]

I couldn't care less about the B1G tournament right now. Not at all.

Beat Wisconsigan on Sunday and then who cares about the B1G tournament.

I care about the B1G tournament. It is a great opportunity. Even if we were a lock for the NCAA tourney I would care about the B1G tourney.

[49r]

Updated 2014 Big Ten Tournament Projections - Cornhuskers Take Control of The #4 Seed - BT Powerhouse

 

http://www.btpowerhouse.com/2014/3/7/5478164/updated-2014-big-ten-tournament-projections

 

"The biggest remaining battle is going to be for that 4th seed. There are still 3 teams in competition for that 4th spot. Right now, Nebraska has a 1 game lead over OSU and Iowa, so they will lock the spot up with either a win or losses by both Iowa and OSU. Just to help people understand this, here are some of the scenarios that will get each team that #4 seed."

[49r]

Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios - Final Weekend - The Only Colors

 

http://www.theonlycolors.com/2014/3/6/5480346/big-ten-tournament-seeding-scenarios-final-weekend

 

Fighting For the Last Bye

Nebraska

• #4 with win or (Iowa loss + OSU loss)

• #5 with loss + 1 loss by Iowa or OSU

• #6 with loss + Iowa win + OSU win

Iowa

• #4 with win + Nebraska loss

• #5 with (win + Nebraska win) or (loss + OSU loss)

• #6 with loss + OSU win

Ohio State

• #4 with win + Nebraska loss + Iowa loss

• #5 with win + 1 loss by Nebraska or Iowa

• #6 with loss or (Nebraska win + Iowa win)

[Cookie Belcher]

Nice breakdowns.

[royalfan]

I think we will win Sunday, but it is possible we don't.  Assuming a loss, here is how things look in order of games. 

 

Indiana at Michigan.  Doesn't really matter much for us, aside from possibly matchups down the road.  Indiana looks likely to get 8 seed, barring an upset and Minny losing to Penn St.

 

Illinois at Iowa.  We REALLY want the upset here.  This would ensure 5 seed at worse and would have shot at bye even with a loss, if Ohio St were to lose.  5 seed is looking somewhat likely to play NW also.  That is a much easier situation than playing anyone else if we have a first round contest.  This would be big to get this upset. 

 

NW at Purdue.  I think we want Purdue to win.  This would lock NW into 12 seed.  Then if Mich St. can beat Ohio St. we would be locked into 5 seed at worst.  I don't believe there are any ways that we could be a 6 seed and NW an 11 seed.  Therefore we want Purdue to beat them and lock them into the 12 hole where those situations are very possible that put us in 5-12 game with NW.

 

Penn St. at Minny.   Strictly from an NCAA at large perspective it would obviously be better for Minny to lose.  If you believe Illinois would be tougher than Penn St. like I barely do, then a Penn St. upset would create potential for 6-11 matchup with Illinois if we lose and Iowa and Ohio St both win.  So that is the trade off here.  Which is more important is debatable.  

 

Michigan St. at Ohio St.  I think we want Michigan St. to win this one for sure.  For starters it locks us into the 5 hole at worst.  We would play NW in that matchup unless they upset Purdue on the road.  If Ohio St. wins, we are likely in that 6-11 game which would most likely be either Penn St. or Illinois. 

[49r]

All I know is I'll be rooting HARD for Illinois and MSU this weekend.

 

Probably about as hard as a0t0w0 handles his couch cushions during close games...

[Cookie Belcher]

[royalfan]

To quickly summarize.  We are locked into 4 or 5 seed.  We get the 4 seed if we win or Ohio St. loses.  We get the 5 if Ohio St wins and we lose. 

 

If we are the 5 seed we play the loser of Purdue/NW game today.  Then Ohio St. 

 

If we are the 4 seed it depends on how we get it.  If we win and Ohio St. win then Ohio St would be the 5 seed.  Any other scenario that gives us the 4 seed would have Iowa across from us as the 5 seed. 

[Sgt Lincoln Osiris]

Would love to get the first round bye and have a crack at Iowa in the 4-5 game. That requires an ohio state loss. Rooting very hard for MSU today. From what I can tell, even if we lose, and osu loss basically puts us up against either NW or Purdue, then Iowa or else a bye then Iowa. Go sparty

[GATA]

Would love to get the first round bye and have a crack at Iowa in the 4-5 game. That requires an ohio state loss. Rooting very hard for MSU today. From what I can tell, even if we lose, and osu loss basically puts us up against either NW or Purdue, then Iowa or else a bye then Iowa. Go sparty

 

Not trying to be pessimistic, but let's say we lose today. What's better for us, getting the four seed and a bye before playing a pretty good team or a great shot at an extra victory over a weak opponent in the B1G opener?

[Cookie Belcher]

A victory against Purdue or Northwestern does nothing for getting us into the tournament.

[royalfan]

 

Would love to get the first round bye and have a crack at Iowa in the 4-5 game. That requires an ohio state loss. Rooting very hard for MSU today. From what I can tell, even if we lose, and osu loss basically puts us up against either NW or Purdue, then Iowa or else a bye then Iowa. Go sparty

 

Not trying to be pessimistic, but let's say we lose today. What's better for us, getting the four seed and a bye before playing a pretty good team or a great shot at an extra victory over a weak opponent in the B1G opener?

 

Had this debate earlier in the week.  At that time it looked like a 6 seed was very likely, and that Illinois was a likely opponent.  I strongly preferred the bye.  But here we are now as the 5 seed if we have to play.  And the opponent very likely to beat NW.  Not as big a deal. 

 

I still prefer the bye, especially if Ohio St. loses, putting us in cross bracket with Iowa/NW winner.   I just don't know that a win over a slumping NW team is going to do us much good at all.  And we losing scouting time on Iowa or Ohio St. 

[Cookie Belcher]

Say the committee has us OUT of the tournament before the B1G Tourney.

 

If we beat Northwestern and then lose to Iowa/OSU, we are still OUT.  The Northwestern win did nothing.  We still needed to beat Iowa/OSU to get in.

 

If we have the bye, we still have to beat Iowa/OSU to get in.

 

But if we lose to Northwestern, we are most certainly out.  That game could only hurt us.  No thanks.

[HuskerFever]

Say the committee has us OUT of the tournament before the B1G Tourney.

 

If we beat Northwestern and then lose to Iowa/OSU, we are still OUT.  The Northwestern win did nothing.  We still needed to beat Iowa/OSU to get in.

 

If we have the bye, we still have to beat Iowa/OSU to get in.

 

But if we lose to Northwestern, we are most certainly out.  That game could only hurt us.  No thanks.

 

The only thing that 1st round game does for us is give us a qualifying 20-wins (if that's what is really important to them).

[huskerbaseball13]

NW up 7 vs Purdue with 15 minutes to go