2024 B1G Tourney Projection

[hhcmatt]

10 minutes ago, TourneyBound said:

Say there is a 3 or 4 way tie with us, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan st.  How does tiebreaker go then??

 

Round robin

 

4 way tie

 

 

If it's 3 teams we're likely to have a first round bye because we always beat Mich St and Wisconsin swept Northwestern.

[hhcmatt]

4 hours ago, 49r said:

 

Image is not showing up for me, so I'll add the link to the thread here:

 

 

 

Another way to read this is our current odds for a first round bye are 65%

[hskr4life]

7 minutes ago, Crush78 said:

IF we get top 4, we will not have played our 1st tourney game on Thursday for 11 straight seasons. 

That’s a…. Wildly interesting stat.  Top 4 or bottom 4… no in between

[Norm Peterson]

4 minutes ago, TourneyBound said:

Say there is a 3 or 4 way tie with us, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan st.  How does tiebreaker go then??

 

If it's more than 2 teams tied, you look at the round robin record of all the tied teams and rank them. The second-level tie-break is who had the best record against the top team, Purdue, which would be us.

 

Wisconsin would win the tie-break of that 4-team group because they swept Michigan State, split with us, and beat Northwestern. We go next no matter what happens between Northwestern and Michigan State on March 6 because we have 3 wins among that group, Michigan State currently has none, and Northwestern, if they beat Michigan State on March 6, only just gets to 3 wins in that group, and the next level tie-breaker is who has the best record against Purdue, and we're 1-0. So that's us.

[hskr4life]

17 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Crazy how no one has an easier stretch run than we do. Our last three games are against literally the three lowest-ranked teams in the league standings.

And yet one of those games is still a Q1.

[Norm Peterson]

Just now, hskr4life said:

And yet one of those games is still a Q1.

 

We couldn't have designed this better if we tried. 

[Crush78]

11 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

That’s a…. Wildly interesting stat.  Top 4 or bottom 4… no in between

The only times we started Thursday in the B1G were the 1st 2 years when there werent Wednesday games 

[49r]

20 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

We couldn't have designed this better if we tried. 

 

We could have all three games at home!

[throwback]

29 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Another way to read this is our current odds for a first round bye are 65%

It was about 25% roughly three weeks ago.

[Norm Peterson]

32 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

We could have all three games at home!

 

Except then Ohio St wouldn't be a Quad 1.

[GBR]

Chart is wrong could still finish 11th, PU 16-4 UW 11-9 NW 11-9 IU 11-9 MSU 11-9 MD, IA, Min, PSU, RU, NE 10-10 Ind 8-12 OSU 8-12 Mich 4-16 

Even at 10-10 could still finish in top 4 as well

[hhcmatt]

11 hours ago, GBR said:

Chart is wrong could still finish 11th, PU 16-4 UW 11-9 NW 11-9 IU 11-9 MSU 11-9 MD, IA, Min, PSU, RU, NE 10-10 Ind 8-12 OSU 8-12 Mich 4-16 

Even at 10-10 could still finish in top 4 as well

 

Actually, yeah

 

[AuroranHusker]

Only 3 games left, and NU could finish anywhere from 2nd to 11th. I'm going to predict 4th. A double bye. GBR

 

[HuskerFever]

18 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

Only 3 games left, and NU could finish anywhere from 2nd to 11th. I'm going to predict 4th. A double bye. GBR

 

Meanwhile: "The Big Ten is down this year"

 

The committee: "Put in Michigan over Nebraska again"

 

[49r]

1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Actually, yeah

 

 

YOU MUST CHECK YOURSELF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(before you wreck yourself)

[GBR]

Of course with the heart of this team they will finish in the top four, but with all the winning it’s fun to play around with all the scenarios even though the odds of finishing 11th is basically zero.

[hskr4life]

10 minutes ago, GBR said:

Of course with the heart of this team they will finish in the top four, but with all the winning it’s fun to play around with all the scenarios even though the odds of finishing 11th is basically zero.

I like this a lot better than saying “with how the team is playing, we’ll finish 11th but it’s fun to play around with all the scenarios even though the odds of finishing 4th is basically zero.” As has been done so many times before.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

I like this a lot better than saying “with how the team is playing, we’ll finish 11th but it’s fun to play around with all the scenarios even though the odds of finishing 4th is basically zero.” As has been done so many times before.

 

In the past decade plus, Nebrasketball has been exclusively a top 4 or bottom 4 squad. lol

 

[HuskerFever]

Well, Nebraska was ranked #12 in the Big Ten preseason rankings, so either scenario is an improvement 

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

In the past decade plus, Nebrasketball has been exclusively a top 4 or bottom 4 squad. lol

 

 

We have never lost a 2nd round B1G game

[brfrad]

Another interesting tidbit.  We have only been eliminated on Thursday 1 time in the Big 10 tournament (our 1st year in the Big 10).   All others have been on a Wednesday or Friday.

[AuroranHusker]

11 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

We have never lost a 2nd round B1G game

 

You can't lose if you don't play in a 2nd rd. matchup. 

 

Edited February 27 by AuroranHusker

[Bugeaters1]

I just looked at the tournament generator on the main page. And if we win out the Huskers will be the #3 seed.

[Norm Peterson]

Well, since Wisconsin just lost one of the games they needed to win to stay ahead of us ...

 

They close with two at home including against Illinois and Rutgers. And they finish on the road at Purdue. And we hold the tie-breaker.

[Norm Peterson]

Northwestern's final four games of the regular season include AT Maryland tomorrow night and at Michigan State alternating with home games against Iowa and Minnesota. And neither of those home games are gimmes. And, again, they need two games just to get to 12. Which, if they do, we hold the tie-breaker.