Realtime RPI

[Silverbacked1]

I know that Realtime is a bit different from the other sites.

 

But they have us only losing to Ohio State by 1, 69-68.

 

They also have Ohio State's chances of winning at 52.1%.

 

They are 2-3 away from home.

 

 

[Huskerpapa]

Wow...wow. 

[hskr4life]

I mean I could see it being a close game.  Ohio St. is not very good on the road... they blew us out the first time, and they have Michigan after they play us.  Could catch them looking ahead a little bit.  Combine that with a off night for a few of their players and you have the makings of a closer game.

[Norm Peterson]

In rematch games, the winner of the first loses the 2nd 60% of the time.

[hhcmatt]

Two "fun" facts

 

Since joining the conference

1. We haven't scored more than 45 points vs Ohio St
2. Last game vs Ohio St was the first time we've lost by less than 30 points

Losing by 19 and/or scoring 50 points would be progress against these guys at this point.

 

If this was Rock, Scissors, Paper, Ohio St would be rock and we wouldn't have an arm.

[Silverbacked1]

OSU would be Spock, and we would be lizard.

[trickey]

In rematch games, the winner of the first loses the 2nd 60% of the time.

Norm, I will accept a 40% chance to beat them...since it is way more than I was giving us before your research.

[Red Rum]

In rematch games, the winner of the first loses the 2nd 60% of the time.

 

60% of the time it happens all the time

 

 

[Norm Peterson]

In rematch games, the winner of the first loses the 2nd 60% of the time.

Norm, I will accept a 40% chance to beat them...since it is way more than I was giving us before your research.

Actually, I can't take credit for the research.  Ken Pomeroy did that.  Or maybe Ken Pomeroy found it and posted it.  I can't even tell you where on his site I found it.  It might even have been a link posted on his site to another article that linked to the thing that said that the rematch winner was the loser in the first go-around 60% of the time.

 

The only thing I'm relatively certain of is the ~ 60% figure.  It was 60 or 61%.  Somewhere in that very specific ballpark.  If you won the first matchup, there's a very good chance you won't win the second.

[royalfan]

If Thomas somehow struggles, they don't have any sure things to pick them up offensively.  Very limited scoring options.  They do match up well with us on the other end though and it will be a challenge to score. 

[Norm Peterson]

According to a blog article by Pomeroy from December 2010: "Fortunately, there are plenty of rematches in the sport, so one can use real data to determine how much a head-to-head victory is a true verdict of superiority. Last season, there were 1,049 regular-season conference games which were a rematch of an earlier game. The winners of the initial game won 61.1% of the rematches. Not exactly a figure that inspires confidence that the outcome of a single game is useful to compare two teams."

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_head-to-head_fallacy

 

Pomeroy has also figured out the likelihood of winning a rematch based on the point differential of the first game.  If you lost the first one on the road by 26 points, there was a 60% chance, based on historical data, that you'd lose the rematch as well. 

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/evidence_that_scoring_margin_matters

[Creighton Fan]

According to a blog article by Pomeroy from December 2010: "Fortunately, there are plenty of rematches in the sport, so one can use real data to determine how much a head-to-head victory is a true verdict of superiority. Last season, there were 1,049 regular-season conference games which were a rematch of an earlier game. The winners of the initial game won 61.1% of the rematches. Not exactly a figure that inspires confidence that the outcome of a single game is useful to compare two teams."

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_head-to-head_fallacy

Not to nit-pick Normy, but doesn't the above quote say just the opposite of the statement you made earlier in this thread?  Pomeroy is saying the winner of the first game wins 61% of the rematches, whereas you said the winner of the first game loses 60% of the rematches.

 

Either that or I'm really confused here. 

[royalfan]

He just posted the article work for word.  Not sure how you could still be confused.

[atskooc]

He just posted the article work for word.  Not sure how you could still be confused.

 

Because the quoted article says the opposite of what Norm was saying earlier, and Norm was, apparently, using the article to support his earlier claim (unless I missed something).

[Norm Peterson]

According to a blog article by Pomeroy from December 2010: "Fortunately, there are plenty of rematches in the sport, so one can use real data to determine how much a head-to-head victory is a true verdict of superiority. Last season, there were 1,049 regular-season conference games which were a rematch of an earlier game. The winners of the initial game won 61.1% of the rematches. Not exactly a figure that inspires confidence that the outcome of a single game is useful to compare two teams."

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_head-to-head_fallacy

Not to nit-pick Normy, but doesn't the above quote say just the opposite of the statement you made earlier in this thread?  Pomeroy is saying the winner of the first game wins 61% of the rematches, whereas you said the winner of the first game loses 60% of the rematches.

 

Either that or I'm really confused here. 

I totally misspoke.  (Mistyped, whatever.)  Should be the winner of the first wins the 2nd 60% of the time.  Had the 60% figure right, though. 

[royalfan]

He just posted the article work for word.  Not sure how you could still be confused.

 

Because the quoted article says the opposite of what Norm was saying earlier, and Norm was, apparently, using the article to support his earlier claim (unless I missed something).

I see.  I guess I didn't look at it as though I care if Norm was correct or not in the beginning.  I cared that he posted the article so we know what is what and that eliminated any confusion for me. 

[49r]

Boy, I'm liking the looks of this one way better than KenPom right now!  

 

RealTimeRPI rankings as of 1-2-14.
==============================

B1G (0-1):
3. Wisconsin
8. Ohio State

13. Illinois

15. Michigan State
27. Minnesota
28. Iowa - L
75. Michigan

77. Nebraska

96. Indiana

103. Purdue

105. Penn State

179. Northwestern

[tcp]

realtime's good for morale, but that's about it. It loves SoS above and beyond the call of duty.

We're making progress, and in solid chunks. That's all I care about. 150 to 120 to now in double digits. That's concrete improvement, but this time, we're getting better AND younger, which is something we just hadn't been doing.

[throwback]

realtime's good for morale, but that's about it. It loves SoS above and beyond the call of duty.

We're making progress, and in solid chunks. That's all I care about. 150 to 120 to now in double digits. That's concrete improvement, but this time, we're getting better AND younger, which is something we just hadn't been doing.

"Better AND younger" - I like the way that sounds 

[49r]

AND is better...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FxxdR6IcpA

[tcp]

 

realtime's good for morale, but that's about it. It loves SoS above and beyond the call of duty.

We're making progress, and in solid chunks. That's all I care about. 150 to 120 to now in double digits. That's concrete improvement, but this time, we're getting better AND younger, which is something we just hadn't been doing.

"Better AND younger" - I like the way that sounds 

 

TWSS! heh heh.

[49r]

Wow, look at UMass and UNO!

 

RealTimeRPI rankings as of 1-5-14.
==============================

B1G (0-2):
2. Wisconsin
10. Ohio State - L

12. Illinois

13. Michigan State
31. Iowa - L
53. Minnesota
56. Michigan

76. Nebraska

92. Indiana

103. Penn State

109. Purdue

186. Northwestern

 

Non-Conference (8-4):
215. Florida Gulf Coast - W
293. Western Illinois - W
301. South Carolina State - W

---Charleston Classic---
3. UMass - L
105. UAB - L
259. Georgia - W

180. Northern Illinois - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
135. Miami - W

42. @Creighton - L
142. Arkansas State - W
346. The Citadel - W
35. @Cincinnati - L

Other teams of interest:
101. Maryland (10-5)
69. Omaha (10-5)

223. Rutgers (7-8)

[tcp]

realtime took away our only remotely quality win, though. that makes me sad.