KenPom 2016-2017 KenPom Rankings Thread

[hhcmatt]

6 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

Yes in regards to our RPI rating.  But, this game will not be counted as a W in the selection committee's eyes if we find ourselves on the bubble come March.  If we are at 17-18 wins we may be wanting that gimmee win. 

 

Let's say that instead of Mary we played a 11-20 Kennesaw St team where we win easily (Lets say 300 RPI).  Do you think that the committee would give us more credit for beating Kennesaw St than Mary?

[huskerbaseball13]

35 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Let's say that instead of Mary we played a 11-20 Kennesaw St team where we win easily (Lets say 300 RPI).  Do you think that the committee would give us more credit for beating Kennesaw St than Mary?

 

I played around with the RPI wizard a bit.  I tried to give us a bubble type resume...  I had us at 8-3 in the non con and 9-9 in the Big Ten.  As of right now, that would put us at  17-12 with a RPI of 36 and SOS of 16.  I then added Coppin St who is a high 200's/low 300's RPI type team and our RPI stayed at 36 but SOS dropped to 22.  Obviously, this is far from an exact science as the RPI forecast numbers are likely to change quite a bit thru the year.  It may not come in to play at all at the end of the year....but, I do believe if we find ourselves on the bubble we would much rather have an additional win next to our name even with a slight drop of the RPI/SOS.  I don't think the committee will give us more credit for scheduling a Coppin St and beating them but when comparing our resume to another bubble team it would sure look better being 18-12 than 17-12(I didn't add any Big Ten tourney games.)

Edited November 14, 2016 by huskerbaseball13

[hhcmatt]

2 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

I had us at 8-3 in the non con

 

But we play 12 games.  This Mary game counts, win or loss. This number should be 9-3. 

 

If it's close enough to differentiate between teams, isn't it going to come down to

• What are your bad losses?
• What are your good wins?
• Who did you play away from home?

Unless it's a loss, neither Mary, Coppin St, Sacramento St, Garner Webb, etc are going to matter.

It's one thing if you think we need another tougher game to up our SOS but I don't think that differentiating between cupcake wins is something the committee cares about.

[huskerbaseball13]

42 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

But we play 12 games.  This Mary game counts, win or loss. This number should be 9-3. 

 

If it's close enough to differentiate between teams, isn't it going to come down to

• What are your bad losses?
• What are your good wins?
• Who did you play away from home?

Unless it's a loss, neither Mary, Coppin St, Sacramento St, Garner Webb, etc are going to matter.

It's one thing if you think we need another tougher game to up our SOS but I don't think that differentiating between cupcake wins is something the committee cares about.

 

I had us at 8-3 as the Mary game does not count towards the RPI numbers.  If we are lucky enough to be discussed come March...does that game count towards our overall record in the eyes of the committee? If so, then I would say it was a no brainer scheduling Mary. 

Edited November 14, 2016 by huskerbaseball13

[49r]

Nebraska dropped a spot in the KenPom table tonight. But picked up a predicted win. Pomeroy now has us finishing 13-15 with the second and third Anaheim games not counted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[49r]

I believe I misspoke last night (full disclosure I was posting from Longwell's after the game so...) but Nebraska's ranking didn't drop after the game.  It was 79 at game time, we actually move up a spot today.

 

Creighton moved up 8 spots.  Wisconsin stayed at #8.  Kansas didn't move either.  UCLA, Michigan State and Ohio State are sliding down a bit.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-16-16.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

8. Wisconsin

14. Indiana

15. Purdue

21. Michigan State

26. Ohio State

37. Michigan

50. Maryland

54. Iowa 

61. Northwestern

67. Minnesota

71. Illinois

78. Nebraska

104. Penn State

170. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (2-0):

265. Sacramento State - W

nr. University of Mary - W

162. Louisiana Tech

 

---DirecTV Wooden Legacy---

36. Dayton

23. UCLA / 147.  Portland

29. Texas A&M / 46.  Virginia Tech / 83. New Mexico / 182.  Cal State Northridge

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

24. @Clemson

 

248. South Dakota

33. Creighton

6. @Kansas

262. Gardner Webb

278. Southern

[49r]

Big jump up for Michigan after winning the 2K Challenge.  Otherwise things remain relatively unchanged.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-20-16.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

10. Wisconsin

12. Indiana

15. Michigan

18. Purdue

20. Michigan State

28. Ohio State

51. Maryland

58. Iowa 

60. Northwestern

66. Minnesota

71. Illinois

76. Nebraska

102. Penn State

157. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (3-0):

265. Sacramento State - W

nr. University of Mary - W

162. Louisiana Tech - W

 

---DirecTV Wooden Legacy---

38. Dayton

26. UCLA / 147.  Portland

32. Texas A&M / 46.  Virginia Tech / 80. New Mexico / 181.  Cal State Northridge

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

23. @Clemson

 

248. South Dakota

27. Creighton

5. @Kansas

240. Gardner Webb

273. Southern

[49r]

Let's try a little RPI Forecast action today:

---

The Big Ten:

Expected RPI Rank	Team	RPI Forecast	SOS Forecast	SOS Rank Forecast	Curr W-L	Proj W-L	Current Conf W-L	Proj Conf W-L	1-25 W-L	26-50 W-L	51-100 W-L	101-200 W-L	200+ W-L	Proj OOC W-L	Proj OOC RPI	Proj OOC SOS	Current RPI
18.7	Indiana	0.6156	0.5595	47	3-0	25-6	0-0	13-5	4-3	3-1	4-1	7-1	7-0	11-2	26	131	33
21.1	Michigan	0.6117	0.5661	33	4-0	24-7	0-0	12-6	2-2	4-2	6-2	7-1	5-0	11-2	14	80	29
28.9	Purdue	0.6004	0.5659	34	2-1	22-8	0-0	13-5	2-4	3-2	5-2	8-1	5-0	9-3	46	71	225
42.5	Wisconsin	0.5844	0.5544	58	2-1	20-9	0-0	12-6	2-4	2-2	4-2	6-1	6-0	8-3	100	250	90
47.8	Michigan St.	0.5794	0.5813	15	2-2	18-11	0-0	10-8	1-5	2-2	5-3	6-1	4-0	7-4	65	28	99
53.8	Minnesota	0.5733	0.5655	36	4-0	20-11	0-0	9-9	1-2	2-3	5-3	9-2	3-0	11-2	23	57	43
69.6	Maryland	0.5597	0.5487	66	3-0	18-11	0-0	9-9	1-2	1-2	5-3	7-3	5-0	9-2	51	167	35
87.4	Ohio St.	0.5471	0.5535	59	3-0	18-13	0-0	8-10	1-4	2-3	4-4	5-2	7-0	10-3	67	154	25
92.2	Illinois	0.5434	0.5747	23	3-0	15-14	0-0	7-11	1-4	1-3	3-4	6-3	3-0	7-4	78	21	79
103.0	Nebraska	0.5373	0.5836	14	2-0	12-15	0-0	6-12	1-5	1-4	2-4	4-3	3-0	5-4	74	17	82
107.2	Northwestern	0.5341	0.5395	82	2-1	17-13	0-0	8-10	1-4	2-4	3-3	5-2	7-0	9-3	146	289	161
109.7	Iowa	0.5327	0.5505	65	3-1	16-14	0-0	8-10	1-4	2-4	3-4	4-2	6-0	8-4	166	161	243
156.8	Penn St.	0.5067	0.5674	32	2-3	12-19	0-0	5-13	0-5	1-4	2-5	5-5	4-1	7-6	171	82	196
160.9	Rutgers	0.5048	0.5220	109	3-0	14-16	0-0	5-13	0-3	1-4	2-5	3-3	8-1	9-3	122	338	64

---

Nebraska:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-7	17.3	0.03%
19-8	19.1	0.14%
18-9	24.1	0.49%
17-10	32.9	1.34%
16-11	42.9	3.05%
15-12	52.8	6.36%
14-13	66.1	11.09%
13-14	80.7	15.88%
12-15	97.3	17.92%
11-16	115.2	16.78%
10-17	135.8	13.22%
9-18	155.7	7.88%
8-19	175.9	4.15%
7-20	195.7	1.30%
6-21	212.7	0.30%
5-22	228.5	0.06%

 

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Sacramento St. (318.7)	BSky	H	83-61	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Louisiana Tech (138.9)	CUSA	H	65-54	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Dayton (24.6)	A10	N	0-0		26%	-7.9
11-30	Clemson (61.6)	ACC	A	0-0		23%	-9.1
12-3	South Dakota (205.3)	Sum	H	0-0		84%	11.8
12-7	Creighton (23.5)	BE	H	0-0		26%	-7.8
12-10	Kansas (8.5)	B12	A	0-0		8%	-16.8
12-18	Gardner Webb (233.0)	BSth	H	0-0		89%	14.7
12-20	Southern (237.3)	SWAC	H	0-0		90%	15.3
12-28	Indiana (18.7)	B10	A	0-0		9%	-15.9
1-1	Maryland (69.6)	B10	A	0-0		30%	-6.3
1-5	Iowa (109.7)	B10	H	0-0		50%	0.1
1-8	Northwestern (107.2)	B10	H	0-0		50%	-0.0
1-14	Michigan (21.1)	B10	A	0-0		13%	-13.5
1-18	Ohio St. (87.4)	B10	H	0-0		53%	0.9
1-21	Rutgers (160.9)	B10	A	0-0		51%	0.3
1-26	Northwestern (107.2)	B10	A	0-0		31%	-5.9
1-29	Purdue (28.9)	B10	H	0-0		25%	-8.0
2-2	Michigan St. (47.8)	B10	H	0-0		37%	-3.8
2-5	Iowa (109.7)	B10	A	0-0		32%	-5.7
2-9	Wisconsin (42.5)	B10	H	0-0		29%	-6.5
2-14	Penn St. (156.8)	B10	H	0-0		69%	5.9
2-18	Ohio St. (87.4)	B10	A	0-0		34%	-4.9
2-23	Michigan St. (47.8)	B10	A	0-0		21%	-9.7
2-26	Illinois (92.2)	B10	H	0-0		56%	1.8
3-2	Minnesota (53.8)	B10	A	0-0		27%	-7.5
3-5	Michigan (21.1)	B10	H	0-0		26%	-7.6

[seaofred92]

Can't wait for our jump after tonight 

[49r]

8 minutes ago, seaofred92 said:

Can't wait for our jump after tonight 

 

If I had to guess I'd say we'll be somewhere in the upper 60's tomorrow.

[aphilso1]

Disappointingly, we only moved up 2 spots to #74 today.  SOS is up to 221 today though, which is around a 100-place jump IIRC.  Would expect a similar leap after playing UCLA tonight.

[kleitus]

rpi jumped to #44 from about 100

[49r]

We picked up a predicted win last night.  KenPom now has us going 14-15!

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-20-16.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

9. Wisconsin

11. Purdue

18. Indiana

25. Michigan

27. Ohio State

32. Michigan State

53. Northwestern

56. Maryland

59. Iowa 

60. Minnesota

74. Nebraska

83. Illinois

109. Penn State

146. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (4-0):

269. Sacramento State - W

nr. University of Mary - W

153. Louisiana Tech - W

 

---DirecTV Wooden Legacy---

43. Dayton - W

23. UCLA

31. Texas A&M / 38.  Virginia Tech

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

28. @Clemson

 

261. South Dakota

24. Creighton

5. @Kansas

235. Gardner Webb

260. Southern

[49r]

7 hours ago, kleitus said:

rpi jumped to #44 from about 100

 

#44 is good for fourth in the B1G right now (also note our forecasted SOS is a league best 17 - and people say Michigan State plays a tough non-con, pffft):

 

Expected RPI Rank	Team	RPI Forecast	SOS Forecast	SOS Rank Forecast	Curr W-L	Proj W-L	Current Conf W-L	Proj Conf W-L	1-25 W-L	26-50 W-L	51-100 W-L	101-200 W-L	200+ W-L	Proj OOC W-L	Proj OOC RPI	Proj OOC SOS	Current RPI
19.5	Purdue	0.6143	0.5608	44	4-1	24-7	0-0	14-4	2-3	4-2	6-1	7-1	5-0	11-2	28	83	19
30.4	Indiana	0.5978	0.5651	37	3-1	22-9	0-0	12-6	3-3	3-2	4-2	6-1	7-0	10-3	46	104	46
34.7	Michigan	0.5926	0.5593	47	4-1	22-9	0-0	11-7	1-3	3-3	5-2	7-1	5-0	11-2	23	95	38
41.7	Wisconsin	0.5844	0.5583	51	4-2	21-10	0-0	12-6	1-4	3-3	5-2	6-1	6-0	10-3	85	173	80
47.0	Minnesota	0.5788	0.5573	53	5-0	21-10	0-0	10-8	1-2	2-3	6-3	9-2	3-0	12-1	20	96	14
53.7	Michigan St.	0.5723	0.5819	18	3-3	17-13	0-0	10-8	1-5	2-3	5-2	5-1	4-0	8-4	79	38	78
64.0	Ohio St.	0.5640	0.5566	55	5-0	19-12	0-0	9-9	1-3	2-3	4-3	5-2	6-0	11-2	40	132	60
68.4	Northwestern	0.5598	0.5408	78	3-2	20-11	0-0	10-8	1-4	2-3	4-2	6-1	7-0	10-3	106	238	61
80.0	Nebraska	0.5520	0.5820	17	3-0	13-14	0-0	7-11	1-4	2-4	3-4	4-2	3-0	6-3	31	18	44
90.5	Maryland	0.5439	0.5403	79	4-0	17-12	0-0	8-10	0-2	2-3	3-3	7-3	5-0	9-2	76	229	114
109.3	Iowa	0.5322	0.5504	61	3-1	16-14	0-0	8-10	1-4	2-4	3-3	4-2	6-0	8-4	159	155	242
143.2	Illinois	0.5130	0.5721	27	3-2	12-17	0-0	6-12	0-4	1-4	2-5	4-4	3-0	6-5	140	33	167
158.9	Penn St.	0.5047	0.5610	43	3-3	12-19	0-0	5-13	0-5	1-4	2-4	5-5	4-1	7-6	167	105	171
161.2	Rutgers	0.5039	0.5227	101	4-0	14-16	0-0	5-13	0-3	1-4	2-5	3-3	8-1	9-3	122	339	79

 

...and we're edging closer to a projected winning record territory...

 

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-6	12.0	0.05%
20-7	13.8	0.19%
19-8	18.4	0.65%
18-9	25.3	2.08%
17-10	33.8	4.53%
16-11	43.1	8.85%
15-12	54.4	14.08%
14-13	67.4	17.84%
13-14	82.2	17.84%
12-15	99.7	15.25%
11-16	117.7	9.90%
10-17	137.3	5.67%
9-18	155.5	2.33%
8-19	173.2	0.60%
7-20	197.6	0.10%
6-21	223.0	0.03%

 

Edited November 25, 2016 by 49r

[49r]

Pomeroy's updated already:

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-26-16.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

9. Wisconsin

11. Purdue

19. Indiana

21. Ohio State

26. Michigan

31. Michigan State

52. Northwestern

56. Maryland

60. Minnesota

68. Iowa 

75. Nebraska

90. Illinois

111. Penn State

162. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (4-1):

269. Sacramento State - W

nr. University of Mary - W

149. Louisiana Tech - W

 

---DirecTV Wooden Legacy---

43. Dayton - W

20. UCLA - L

39.  Virginia Tech

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

33. @Clemson

 

261. South Dakota

24. Creighton

6. @Kansas

236. Gardner Webb

258. Southern

[49r]

Here is what the RealTimeRPI guys say about Nebraska's upcoming schedule:

 

Date	Opponent			Opp. RPI Rk	Results
11-13		Sacramento St.	0-3 (0-0)	235	83-61	W
11-19		Louisiana Tech	1-2 (0-0)	192	65-54	W
$  11-24	vs	Dayton	3-2 (0-0)	38	80-78	W
11-26	at	UCLA	6-0 (0-0)	25	71-82	L
11-30	at	Clemson	3-2 (0-0)	10	67-77 L - Scouting
12-03		South Dakota	3-2 (0-0)	137	82-61 W - Scouting
12-07		Creighton	5-0 (0-0)	1	80-76 W - Scouting
12-10	at	Kansas	5-1 (0-0)	17	67-87 L - Scouting
12-18		Gardner-Webb	1-4 (0-0)	272	82-60 W - Scouting
12-20		Southern	1-3 (0-0)	170	81-62 W - Scouting
12-28	at	Indiana	3-1 (0-0)	56	70-87 L - Scouting
01-01	at	Maryland	5-0 (0-0)	73	67-81 L - Scouting
01-05		Iowa	3-2 (0-0)	215	78-75 W - Scouting
01-08		Northwestern	4-2 (0-0)	80	76-69 W - Scouting
01-14	at	Michigan	4-1 (0-0)	44	67-79 L - Scouting
01-18		Ohio St.	6-0 (0-0)	42	76-68 W - Scouting
01-21	at	Rutgers	5-0 (0-0)	77	73-72 W - Scouting
01-26	at	Northwestern	4-2 (0-0)	80	68-77 L - Scouting
01-29		Purdue	4-1 (0-0)	14	74-75 L - Scouting
02-02		Michigan St.	4-3 (0-0)	93	73-75 L - Scouting
02-05	at	Iowa	3-2 (0-0)	215	70-83 L - Scouting
02-09		Wisconsin	4-2 (0-0)	63	72-67 W - Scouting
02-14		Penn St.	3-3 (0-0)	165	78-70 W - Scouting
02-19	at	Ohio St.	6-0 (0-0)	42	68-77 L - Scouting
02-23	at	Michigan St.	4-3 (0-0)	93	65-84 L - Scouting
02-26		Illinois	3-3 (0-0)	163	78-69 W - Scouting
03-02	at	Minnesota	6-0 (0-0)	26	71-75 L - Scouting
03-05		Michigan	4-1 (0-0)	44	75-71 W - Scouting
Current Record:  3-1 (0-0) GAMER Projected Record:  15-13 (8-10)

[49r]

...and the B1G:

 

RPI Rk			Big Ten	Conf	All	RPI	SOS Rk	SOS
	+216	14	Purdue	0-0	4-1	0.6828	11	0.6704
	+14	26	Minnesota	0-0	6-0	0.6678	107	0.5570
	-17	42	Ohio St.	0-0	6-0	0.6393	147	0.5191
	-13	44	Michigan	0-0	4-1	0.6368	96	0.5634
	+35	47	Nebraska	0-0	3-1	0.6350	68	0.5847
	-24	56	Indiana	0-0	3-1	0.6217	76	0.5789
	+20	63	Wisconsin	0-0	4-2	0.6017	112	0.5523
	-38	73	Maryland	0-0	5-0	0.5834	249	0.4445
	-23	77	Rutgers	0-0	5-0	0.5808	255	0.4411
	+85	80	Northwestern	0-0	4-2	0.5770	79	0.5749
	+30	93	Michigan St.	0-0	4-3	0.5697	35	0.6262
	-118	163	Illinois	0-0	3-3	0.4983	106	0.5572
	+42	165	Penn St.	0-0	3-3	0.4947	111	0.5524
	+35	215	Iowa	0-0	3-2	0.4565	220	0.4658
2015-2016 Big Ten standings

[Silverbacked1]

On 10/21/2016 at 9:21 AM, hhcdimes said:

 

Tremendous!  I always disliked having to clip and paste an image

I like realtime RPI because we always seem to do better in it and it is free!

 

I also like how he/they/she has us beating Creighton sincethe first week I think.

[throwback]

3 hours ago, 49r said:

Here is what the RealTimeRPI guys say about Nebraska's upcoming schedule:

 

Date	Opponent			Opp. RPI Rk	Results
12-07		Creighton	5-0 (0-0)	1	80-76 W - Scouting
Current Record:  3-1 (0-0) GAMER Projected Record:  15-13 (8-10)

I like their line of thinking.

[49r]

For the first time this season, Ken has promoted us to a .500 ball club!

 

Projected record:

15-15

7-11

[49r]

With today's loss, we are now down to #76:

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-27-16.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

8. Wisconsin

16. Purdue

19. Indiana

21. Ohio State

25. Michigan

31. Michigan State

50. Northwestern

55. Maryland

60. Minnesota

71. Iowa 

76. Nebraska

92. Illinois

105. Penn State

163. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (4-2):

305. Sacramento State - W

nr. University of Mary - W

139. Louisiana Tech - W

 

---DirecTV Wooden Legacy---

44. Dayton - W

20. UCLA - L

34.  Virginia Tech - L

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

33. @Clemson

 

248. South Dakota

22. Creighton

6. @Kansas

234. Gardner Webb

256. Southern

[brfrad]

Despite going 1-2, still a productive weekend.  Let's say we lose to Dayton, beat Portland, and lose to New Mexico.  That would still have gotten us 1-2, but our SOS, and RPI would take a hit. 

[HuskerFever]

3 hours ago, brfrad said:

Despite going 1-2, still a productive weekend.  Let's say we lose to Dayton, beat Portland, and lose to New Mexico.  That would still have gotten us 1-2, but our SOS, and RPI would take a hit. 

 

I'd still take this result over a far inferior 2-1 win in an early season tournament (e.g. CSUN and Portland wins, if that had even been possible).

[49r]

11 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I'd still take this result over a far inferior 2-1 win in an early season tournament (e.g. CSUN and Portland wins, if that had even been possible).

 

Me too.  (and yes that road to 2-1 in Anaheim would have been a possibility, but very highly unlikely)

[Fullbacksympathy]

So, we started the year in the high 90s and are now mid-70s.  Good.  Really need to get at least one win in the next three.