Bracketology

[PimpMario]

So what seed in the NIT do we get if we get to 16 wins this season?

[GoBigRed]

Feb. 13 update:

 

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

Last Four In

• Georgetown
• Providence
• Florida State
• West Virginia

First Four Out

• LSU
• Missouri
• Richmond
• Saint Joseph's

Next Four Out

• Louisiana Tech
• Clemson
• Dayton
• Ole Miss

A comparison:

Nebraska (13-10, 5-6 Big Ten, RPI 64, SOS: 25)

Best Win: Ohio State (RPI 19)

Top 50: 2-7
Top 100: 4-7
Bad Losses: vs. UAB (175), at Purdue (113), at Penn State (110)
Road: 1-7

 

Florida State (14-10, 5-7 ACC, RPI 62, SOS: 42)
Best Wins: UMass (RPI 20) neutral, Virginia Commonwealth (RPI 22) neutral
Top 50: 2-6

Top 100: 4-9

Bad Losses: Miami (108)

Road: 3-6

 

It's not at all a stretch to compare these resumes seriously, yet one team is "in" and the other is nowhere on the radar.

 

What keeps us from edging FSU right now is basically us holding on to win at Penn State and tipping in the winner against Michigan. Hindsight is always 20/20, but crazy how close we are in just Year 2. Fortunately, we still control our own destiny and it's not like we say that meaning we have to win the conference tournament or reel off 5 straight wins against Top 25 teams.

 

He's got 6 Big Ten teams in. I would have to imagine after Indiana's game last night that we would be the 7th team on his list.

[hskr4life]

Man those are veryyyy similiar

[ajb5856]

But they do have 2 less bad losses and 2 more road wins than us. Those are difference makers when deciding if team A or team B gets in. We would get cut every time with our resume right now. Have to add another road win (or 2) and pick up another quality win.

[HuskerFever]

It's frustrating at times... the UAB loss wasn't that bad until later in the season.

[AuroranHusker]

One would imagine that FSU's 3 road wins are in addition to the 2 impressive neutral court W's...

[throwback]

Yeah those 2 neutral site Top 25 wins are huge for FSU vs us. Wins away from home are usually extremely important to the selection committee.

 

Either way I'm not sure I agree they'd be "in" with a #62 RPI. I'd guess ESPN is projecting where FSU will be by the end of the year, not based on where they are now.

[GoBigRed]

Are FSU's road wins in addition to the 2 impressive neutral court W's?

 

Yes, they also have 2 true road wins, so that's mostly why Lunardi has them in. Because it's certainly not their SOS or their great ACC record.

 

I think it sucks that there is such a major emphasis on road/neutral wins now. What about, one year, rewarding the teams who take care of business on their home court and have a crazy fanbase that helps them play well, and thus, would probably travel in droves to see their team play in an NCAA game...

 

Just sayin'. Florida State has lost to Virginia (18), Clemson (72) and Miami (108) at home. We've lost to Michigan (13). If that were emphasized instead of road/neutral, we'd be in. I don't get it. Who decided it was less embarrassing to have teams come in and beat you in your own gym than it is to go out to other teams' gyms and lose? "Oh yeah they get beat on their home floor all the time by teams on par or worse than them, but whoa, did you see that big road win they got a bad Miami team? Wow!" The RPI already heavily factors in road wins, I don't think it should also be evaluated as its own category as well.

[ajb5856]

Yeah those 2 neutral site Top 25 wins are huge for FSU vs us. Wins away from home are usually extremely important to the selection committee.

Either way I'm not sure I agree they'd be "in" with a #62 RPI. I'd guess ESPN is projecting where FSU will be by the end of the year, not based on where they are now.

Remember throwback, and I'm not certain because I haven't gone in depth yet this year, but was it two years ago that they had trouble finding teams that were tournament worthy for a normal year (with the expansion and everything)? I haven't looked so I don't know if there are teams with a better resume than FSUs that are getting left out but we can't really look at that RPI number all by itself and say yes or no for a team. We know what type of team RPI-wise usually gets in for a typical year, and we know we want that number to be lower, but can't set a for sure cut-off number. It's a comparison of resumes lined up with the RPI being a single component out of many components going into each resume.

[ajb5856]

Are FSU's road wins in addition to the 2 impressive neutral court W's?

Yes, they also have 2 true road wins, so that's mostly why Lunardi has them in. Because it's certainly not their SOS or their great ACC record.

I think it sucks that there is such a major emphasis on road/neutral wins now. What about, one year, rewarding the teams who take care of business on their home court and have a crazy fanbase that helps them play well, and thus, would probably travel in droves to see their team play in an NCAA game...

Just sayin'. Florida State has lost to Virginia (18), Clemson (72) and Miami (108) at home. We've lost to Michigan (13). If that were emphasized instead of road/neutral, we'd be in. I don't get it. Who decided it was less embarrassing to have teams come in and beat you in your own gym than it is to go out to other teams' gyms and lose? "Oh yeah they get beat on their home floor all the time by teams on par or worse than them, but whoa, did you see that big road win they got a bad Miami team? Wow!" The RPI already heavily factors in road wins, I don't think it should also be evaluated as its own category as well.

This is a great point.

[Ron Mexico]

MSU and their injury problems.... This is how you spell OPPORTUNITY, because we have a big one this Sunday.

[ajb5856]

And another question I have is do they actually compare the specific number of road wins between two teams when deciding? Or is it more that they feel being able to win on the road is important so if there's a team that can't do it (has zero or 1 road win all season) that this will weigh negatively against their resume?

[colhusker]

We are a couple bad possessions (PSUcks) and a tip (Mythigan) from being right there

[hskr4life]

I guess Sunday we can kill two birds with one stone. We will be in me of those categories if we get a W on Sunday.

[GoBigRed]

Ole Miss (Lunardi's next 4 out) is a perfect example of this road win logic being too weighted.

 

Nebraska (13-10, 5-6 Big Ten, RPI 64, SOS: 25)

Best Wins: Ohio State (19), Minnesota (40)

Top 50: 2-7
Top 100: 4-7
Bad Losses: vs. UAB (175), at Purdue (113), at Penn State (110)
Road: 1-7 (win over 104 Northwestern)

Home Losses: Michigan (13)

 

Ole Miss (16-8, 7-4 SEC, RPI 63, SOS 88)

Best Win: Missouri (48, not even in field as of today)
Top 50: 1-4 (NU has played 4 more Top 50 teams, so the 16-8 record is canceled out by 13-10; conf. record is moot because SEC is 7th and BIG is 2nd)

Top 100: 4-7 (identical to NU)

Bad Losses: at Mississippi State (185) (only 1 +100 loss beats out our 3)

Road: 4-5 (wins over 227 Coastal Carolina, 111 Western Kentucky, 177 South Carolina, 84 Vanderbilt)

Home Losses: Oregon (43), Mercer (68), Dayton (58)

 

We only have 1 road win, but it would be the 2nd-best road win on Ole Miss's schedule. We should just schedule to play at UNO and UMKC every year, that's basically a pair of top 200 road wins and we wouldn't have to fly. We would basically have Mississippi's resume if we had skipped the 3 games at the Charleston Classic, and instead played at UMKC, at UNO and at Drake and won; won at Purdue and Penn State; and lost to Minnesota and Illinois (at home). We'd be 17-8. Our RPI would be a bit lower, but with the 5 road wins instead of 1, we'd make up for it. We'd still have the Ohio State win to our name, which Ole Miss doesn't.

 

Is this really better than our real resume? I sure as heck would hope not. I would hope at the very least we are right behind Ole Miss, although I get the sense we are considered more down with the Northwesterns of the world (good try, kid, but you're not close).

[brfrad]

Ole Miss (Lunardi's next 4 out) is a perfect example of this road win logic being too weighted.

 

Nebraska (13-10, 5-6 Big Ten, RPI 64, SOS: 25)

Best Wins: Ohio State (19), Minnesota (40)

Top 50: 2-7

Top 100: 4-7

Bad Losses: vs. UAB (175), at Purdue (113), at Penn State (110)

Road: 1-7 (win over 104 Northwestern)

Home Losses: Michigan (13)

 

Ole Miss (16-8, 7-4 SEC, RPI 63, SOS 88)

Best Win: Missouri (48, not even in field as of today)

Top 50: 1-4 (NU has played 4 more Top 50 teams, so the 16-8 record is canceled out by 13-10; conf. record is moot because SEC is 7th and BIG is 2nd)

Top 100: 4-7 (identical to NU)

Bad Losses: at Mississippi State (185) (only 1 +100 loss beats out our 3)

Road: 4-5 (wins over 227 Coastal Carolina, 111 Western Kentucky, 177 South Carolina, 84 Vanderbilt)

Home Losses: Oregon (43), Mercer (68), Dayton (58)

 

We only have 1 road win, but it would be the 2nd-best road win on Ole Miss's schedule. We should just schedule to play at UNO and UMKC every year, that's basically a pair of top 200 road wins and we wouldn't have to fly. We would basically have Mississippi's resume if we had skipped the 3 games at the Charleston Classic, and instead played at UMKC, at UNO and at Drake and won; won at Purdue and Penn State; and lost to Minnesota and Illinois (at home). We'd be 17-8. Our RPI would be a bit lower, but with the 5 road wins instead of 1, we'd make up for it. We'd still have the Ohio State win to our name, which Ole Miss doesn't.

 

Is this really better than our real resume? I sure as heck would hope not. I would hope at the very least we are right behind Ole Miss, although I get the sense we are considered more down with the Northwesterns of the world (good try, kid, but you're not close).

The theory behind the road wins are that any games you play in the tournament will be played away from home.  Thus, you should have won some games away from home.  Now, I disagree with just looking at wins doesn't do their schedule justice.  If you are doing that, just go by icedragon's theory of scheduling, and schedule teams ranked in the 100 - 200 range on the road.  Schedule a tournament with 3 easy wins, so you can win it.

[HuskerFever]

Road: 4-5 (wins over 227 Coastal Carolina, 111 Western Kentucky, 177 South Carolina, 84 Vanderbilt).

 

Why would Ole Miss play Coastal Carolina and Western Kentucky on the road? I really feel like that's gives teams the incentive to play really bad teams on the road just to boost your road record. Kind of like how football programs play really easy non-conference schedules to boost their overall record.

 

Hopefully a road win versus a 200 RPI team is not more beneficial than a home loss against a 100 RPI team.

[AuroranHusker]

 

Road: 4-5 (wins over 227 Coastal Carolina, 111 Western Kentucky, 177 South Carolina, 84 Vanderbilt).

 

Why would Ole Miss play Coastal Carolina and Western Kentucky on the road? I really feel like that's gives teams the incentive to play really bad teams on the road just to boost your road record. Kind of like how football programs play really easy non-conference schedules to boost their overall record.

 

Hopefully a road win versus a 200 RPI team is not more beneficial than a home loss against a 100 RPI team.

 

 

Well, NU did play at Western Kentucky not that long ago when Cookie Miller was running the point... the Coastal road game is a bit more perplexing.

[throwback]

 

Yeah those 2 neutral site Top 25 wins are huge for FSU vs us. Wins away from home are usually extremely important to the selection committee.

Either way I'm not sure I agree they'd be "in" with a #62 RPI. I'd guess ESPN is projecting where FSU will be by the end of the year, not based on where they are now.

Remember throwback, and I'm not certain because I haven't gone in depth yet this year, but was it two years ago that they had trouble finding teams that were tournament worthy for a normal year (with the expansion and everything)? I haven't looked so I don't know if there are teams with a better resume than FSUs that are getting left out but we can't really look at that RPI number all by itself and say yes or no for a team. We know what type of team RPI-wise usually gets in for a typical year, and we know we want that number to be lower, but can't set a for sure cut-off number. It's a comparison of resumes lined up with the RPI being a single component out of many components going into each resume.

 

You're correct - RPI isn't taken in a vacuum. But it would be pretty rare for a 60-plus RPI team to earn an at-large bid - maybe with a Top 10 road win or two. But it does depend on what everyone else does too, like you said. Bids are kind of like grading on a curve. 

[CrazyforNUHOOPS]

Lunardi says if we're 10-8 in league, we're in.

[bigred4]

Lunardi says if we're 10-8 in league, we're in.

Not sure where he said this but how sweet would it be if we are 9-8 going into the Wisconsin game with a win and your in vibe going into the game.

Also, a lot if people talk about the Michigan and Penn State game but don't forget against Purdue, we were up 3 with under 7 to go before we didn't make a basket for over 6 minutes. What could have been. ...Need to just keep looking forward.

[CrazyforNUHOOPS]

Lunardi says if we're 10-8 in league, we're in.

Not sure where he said this but how sweet would it be if we are 9-8 going into the Wisconsin game with a win and your in vibe going into the game.

Also, a lot if people talk about the Michigan and Penn State game but don't forget against Purdue, we were up 3 with under 7 to go before we didn't make a basket for over 6 minutes. What could have been. ...Need to just keep looking forward.

You won't find that quote from him anywhere.

[hskr4life]

Well if that's the case it's more accomplishable than people thing. To get to 10 and 8 all we have to do is win out at home, where we have played really well, and win 1 of the 3 road games.... Sure I know every game will be tough yada yada yada... But they have all been tough so far, and we are 5 and 6.

[lanigan123]

To think Michigan PSU and pursue and UAB keep us out....

[hskr4life]

To think Michigan PSU and pursue and UAB keep us out....

Gotta forget me and do what we need to do to put us in.