Looking ahead

[Norm Peterson]

Yeah, I know, one game at a time.  We haven't beaten the Citadel yet, yada, yada yada.

 

Cincinatti.

 

Beatable?

 

I don't know.  They're an interesting ball club.  They have one really good player, 6-4 guard Sean Kilpatrick, and he scores twice as many points per game (18.3) as their next highest scoring player (9.8).  He's good from long range at just over 40%, and he takes plenty of threes, but most of his makes come inside the arc where he's shooting almost 55%.  He's an excellent free throw shooter at over 80% and he's third on the team in rebounding at 3.8 per game.

 

Next highest scoring guy is a 6-8, 230# PF named Justin Jackson who leads Cinci in rebounds at 6.7 per game in addition to his 9.8 points.

 

They're fairly deep, playing 9 guys double-figure minutes.  Outside of Jackson, though, the whole rest of the team is only shooting 30% from three and all the rest of the team combined has only made 1 more three-pointer than Kilpatrick by himself.  So, other than Kilpatrick, they're not generating a whole lot of offense from beyond the arc.

 

In some ways, they remind me of us.  They start a 6-3 freshman at guard.  Then Kilpatrick at 6-4 is probably their point because he also leads them in assists at 2.7/game.  Then, they have Titus Rubles at 6-7 and 220# and Shaquille Thomas at 6-7 and 205# closing out their starting five.

 

So, their starters compared to ours would be as follows:

 

G  6-3 freshman         6-4 freshman

G  6-4  senior          6-2 senior

F  6-7, 205# soph       6-6, 210# soph

F  6-7, 220# senior     6-7, 220# soph

F  6-8, 230# senior     6-10, 235# soph

 

They aren't going to beat us up with their size.  They probably have athletes but we know we do too.  As a team, they don't appear to be loaded with guys who can kill us with the 3-bomb.  But all of their starters average at least one steal per game with a range of 1.1 to 1.8 steals per game.  (For comparison, Leslee Smith is our steals leader at 1.3 per game.)  So, I'm guessing they got a lot of points in transition. 

 

Through their first 10 games, they are 151/218 from the stripe where we are 191/268 at the same point.  So we get to the line more often and are slightly more accurate when we get there.  In addition, we have better percentages from the floor and from three than they have.  We average 2 points per game more than they do, but 2 assists fewer, 1 turnover fewer and 1 rebound fewer than they get.

 

Statistically, these teams seem to be fairly evenly matched.  Their one big advantage seems to be in age/experience with 3 senior starters, although that's somewhat misleading since we have 3 guys playing who have an extra year with redshirts.

 

I'd say we have a puncher's chance of winning this one.  Can't count us out.  I am betting/hoping we learned a lot from the Creighton loss and, in the long run, it will help us much more than it hurt us.  The first half of the Arkansas State game told me they wanted to get the bad taste of that bitter pill out of their mouths as soon as they could.  We'll probably be a few point dogs, but this might be a game where you can risk a little and make a lot betting on us.  Just sayin.

[49r]

You can't ignore one of the biggest factors though, Norm.  We play them in their gym.  Only the second true road game for us this year and we didn't perform all that well in our first.

 

That's the "X factor" if you ask me.  If we were playing at PBA then yeah, I'd give us a puncher's chance.  But at their place?  It's gonna be a major challenge.

[jimmykc]

What is this "puncher's chance" of which you speak? Does this mean that it will be something like that Cincinnati-Xavier matchup from awhile back? And will Debbie Lovato be there to check out the "X Factor"?

[Handy Johnson]

I imagine we'll take our lumps early in the Conference season, but we SHOULD be vastly improved by B1G tourney time, then we make our run...

[huskerbaseball13]

You can't ignore one of the biggest factors though, Norm.  We play them in their gym.  Only the second true road game for us this year and we didn't perform all that well in our first.

 

That's the "X factor" if you ask me.  If we were playing at PBA then yeah, I'd give us a puncher's chance.  But at their place?  It's gonna be a major challenge.

 

 

This. Cinci does not impress me much....but we travel to their gym and in our one and only true road game we came out really flat.  And this Cinci team we will be playing will be more athletic and a much better defensive team than the team in Omaha.  But...they do struggle on the offensive end.  If this game was at the Pinnacle I would feel pretty good about it....still think we have a shoot but we need to continue to be hot from the 3 point land. 

[49r]

I believe I mentioned this before, but Cincinnati has an 88% winning percentage overall at Fifth Third Arena, and it's something like 93% over the last 7 years.  You don't just waltz in there with a +90 RPI team and expect to win.

[hal9000]

Ah, Sean Kilpatrick.  Sounds like a fine broth of a lad from the old sod.

[Norm Peterson]

Puncher's chance, for those unacquainted with the term, is a boxing reference and relates to the fact that you can never count a puncher out.  Some guys just have big fists and a powerful punch and might be able to hang in there with better boxers.  It is not a reference to someone being an underdog.  Some of the best punchers of all time were great boxers with skill.  But even a less-skilled guy can do damage if he's a big puncher.  If his fists really pack a wallop.  I know this because I used to always watch Tuesday Night Fights on ESPN back in the day.  Some great boxers win decisions, and hang around through 12 rounds and wear you down.  Punchers would end fights by knockout.  And you might be trailing in the scoring going into the 12th round, but if you're a puncher, you're never out of it because you can end it with knockout before the last bell of the last round.

 

That's what's meant by a puncher's chance.

 

Mike Tyson.  He was a puncher.

[Hooper]

I believe I mentioned this before, but Cincinnati has an 88% winning percentage overall at Fifth Third Arena, and it's something like 93% over the last 7 years.  You don't just waltz in there with a +90 RPI team and expect to win.

 

True, but based on the games I've watched recently, teams that typically pack their arenas are less than half full due to the holidays. The students are gone and the majority of seats seem to be empty. I watched UMass at Ohio last night (had a bet on UMass), and Ohio's arena was less than half full. Under ordinary circumstances, the game would have been sold out for sure. Ohio has the best attendance in their conference.

 

What I'm trying to say is that I don't feel that the home teams have quite as strong of an advantage as they normally do during holiday periods like this. This might help a bit against Cincinnati.

 

This is a game Nebraska can win. I'm not saying I expect us to win, but we can win this game, and it won't take a miracle, just solid, consistent play and a little luck.

[Handy Johnson]

Puncher's chance, for those unacquainted with the term, is a boxing reference and relates to the fact that you can never count a puncher out.  Some guys just have big fists and a powerful punch and might be able to hang in there with better boxers.  It is not a reference to someone being an underdog.  Some of the best punchers of all time were great boxers with skill.  But even a less-skilled guy can do damage if he's a big puncher.  If his fists really pack a wallop.  I know this because I used to always watch Tuesday Night Fights on ESPN back in the day.  Some great boxers win decisions, and hang around through 12 rounds and wear you down.  Punchers would end fights by knockout.  And you might be trailing in the scoring going into the 12th round, but if you're a puncher, you're never out of it because you can end it with knockout before the last bell of the last round.

 

That's what's meant by a puncher's chance.

 

Mike Tyson.  He was a puncher.

Ernie Shavers

[Silverbacked1]

Puncher's chance, for those unacquainted with the term, is a boxing reference and relates to the fact that you can never count a puncher out. Some guys just have big fists and a powerful punch and might be able to hang in there with better boxers. It is not a reference to someone being an underdog. Some of the best punchers of all time were great boxers with skill. But even a less-skilled guy can do damage if he's a big puncher. If his fists really pack a wallop. I know this because I used to always watch Tuesday Night Fights on ESPN back in the day. Some great boxers win decisions, and hang around through 12 rounds and wear you down. Punchers would end fights by knockout. And you might be trailing in the scoring going into the 12th round, but if you're a puncher, you're never out of it because you can end it with knockout before the last bell of the last round.

That's what's meant by a puncher's chance.

Mike Tyson. He was a puncher.

Ernie Shavers

Sorry should have been a plus, Shavers is a great example of a puncher.

[49r]

Silverbacked, have you been punching your iPad again?

[Silverbacked1]

If it wasn't so fun and easy for other things it would be gone just on the +\- problems I have.

I forget to make the picture bigger before I push buttons.

[jimmykc]

Although I get the concept of "puncher's chance" ala Nino Valdez or Gerry Cooney, I do not understand the analogy to this Nebraska team which does not seem to be particularly physical. By the way, Sean Kilpatrick is probably a huge fan of Cooney and Irish Mickey Ward.

[Handy Johnson]

I think our "knock out" punch might be if Ray, Walt, & Co. get hot from behind the arc.

[Section_316]

Exactly Handy…. Ray & Walt combine for 10+ 3's… than we got a shot anywhere!!!

[Norm Peterson]

Yeah, in hoops, the analogous ability or tool to being a puncher in boxing is having some guys who can drain threes.  And, though they might be streaky, we do have some guys who can keep us in games and give us a puncher's chance of winning if they get hot at the right time.  We've got a puncher's chance.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[busticket]

A puncher's chance is just a general term that means you have a chance (not a good chance, just a chance).  Norm's pretty much spot on with the origin.  We've all seen fights where a guy is getting totally outclassed but he lands that one shot on the other guy's jaw and KO's him.

 

I agree with Norm.  Cincinnati is a tough team, though they only have a couple guys to be concerned about on offense.  We can beat these guys, but we need to bring our "A" game.  Being on the road is my biggest concern.

[Huskerpapa]

I "hope" we can win.  I believe we could win.  Yet, if I were a betting man, I would not bet money on us.

[throwback]

Even though we have three tough road games in a row, we shouldn't be walking into the most hostile atmospheres, not like what we would see at these places in, say, February.

 

• Cincinnati: Game over break, so limited number of students, time change to early (noon Eastern) tip may keep attendance down, some Cincy fans will be more interested in/may be attending Belk Bowl a few hours later
• Iowa: Game over break, so limited number of students, 6 pm tip on New Year's Eve may affect attendance, some Iowa fans will be in Tampa for the Outback Bowl the next day
• Ohio St: Game over break, so limited number of students, noon Eastern tip may be too early for those who were drowning sorrows/celebrating  OSU's Orange Bowl performance the previous night, some OSU fans will be in Miami for football

 

Iowa certainly will be ready to play NU after what we did to them at the Devaney Center last year, but I can't imagine UC or OSU's players are all that worried about NU, and none of their fans who will be in attendance will be too excited about playing NU. So at least we should be walking into a less-than-frenzied atmosphere the next 3 games - even though we'll be underdogs, hope we can steal one of them!

[Norm Peterson]

Good points, Throwback.