KenPom 2013-2014 KenPom Rankings Thread

[hhcmatt]

Then others might not see us beating Wisconsin at home as that big of an upset since we would be almost undefeated at home with a missed tip in to a 2 or 3 seeded Michigan.

We may have actually hurt ourselves a it with this win streak. 

 

You're overthinking this wayyyyyyy to much

Beating Wisconsin the way they're playing will take all the PBA Magic we can find and will be very impressive.

[uneblinstu]

Part of our problem about trying to get in is that now the rest of the country is seeing as an above average to average team. What this does is put us in a lose-lose situation. If we win all our games up to Wisconsin nobody is going to do back flips for us because we are now seen as a team that should win those games, maybe even easily.

Then others might not see us beating Wisconsin at home as that big of an upset since we would be almost undefeated at home with a missed tip in to a 2 or 3 seeded Michigan.

We may have actually hurt ourselves with this win streak. But with out it we wouldn't be in it.

Is this Irony, a conundrum, catch 22 or just something that we haven't ever been through?

I think there's a little tongue in cheek here, but it's just a new experience. Whether beating Wisconsin is viewed as an upset, largely, doesn't really matter. The fact will still remain that'll be a win over a top 10 (or maybe 5 by that point, who knows) RPI team, so regardless it'll still be a BIG win, a significant one. Whether or not it's an upset: who cares?

[Silverbacked1]

Actually I wrote it after reading this part of the nice article that 49r found on the Offical Media thread.

 

Of course a five game winning streak and 7-1 mark the last eight games helps out quite a bit, especially with the upset over Michigan State, but there's still something lacking for the Cornhuskers thanks to the sizable hole they're still trying to dig out of. While the win streak is nice, highlighted by the win over State, the other four wins have came against Big Ten bottom dwellers Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State and Purdue. With Illinois and Northwestern on the schedule this week it puts Nebraska into another situation where neither win will really help them but a single loss could knock them out of contention. The same thing will likely be said about their road trip to Bloomington on the 5th, with it also being another vanilla win that is required. The problem here is if Nebraska won their next three games, but lost to Wisconsin, they'd likely need to win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament to feel good about themselves.

 

I kind of did do it tongue in check but it does kind of show that we may have played ourselves out of the tourny by winning?

 

Not really but our win streak seems to have changed how some are now looking at us.

 

Or I could be just really wayyyyyyyyyyy, waaaaaaaaaaaaaay,wwwwwwwwwwwway of.

[cwshuskers]

I think getting to 20 wins no matter how we do it is more important then anything else. We have guaranteed 5 games left with 6,7, or 8 games possible. We absolutely can't lose to Northwestern. I look at it like this, we need to win one game in Indy for every one regular season loss. If we go 1-3 to finish the year, we need to win 3 in Indy. Go 2-2, 2 wins needed in Indy. 3-1, 1 win needed. 4-0, no wins needed. Simple as that.

[Norm Peterson]

I think getting to 20 wins no matter how we do it is more important then anything else. We have guaranteed 5 games left with 6,7, or 8 games possible. We absolutely can't lose to Northwestern. I look at it like this, we need to win one game in Indy for every one regular season loss. If we go 1-3 to finish the year, we need to win 3 in Indy. Go 2-2, 2 wins needed in Indy. 3-1, 1 win needed. 4-0, no wins needed. Simple as that.

You're saying we need 4 more wins, then, because we're at 16 right now.  And I've said win out at home and maybe (hopefully) pick up one of these two road games.  That would get us to 19 wins.  Then, we'd play a neutral-floor game in the B1GT against someone like a Northwestern.  And that gets us to 20-12. 

 

So, we can afford to drop 1 game in between now and the 2nd round of the B1GT.  Correct?

 

I still think Wisconsin coming to town and a trip to the dance on the line, I'd give this team better than even odds to pull off the upset.

[Cookie Belcher]

Actually I wrote it after reading this part of the nice article that 49r found on the Offical Media thread.

Of course a five game winning streak and 7-1 mark the last eight games helps out quite a bit, especially with the upset over Michigan State, but there's still something lacking for the Cornhuskers thanks to the sizable hole they're still trying to dig out of. While the win streak is nice, highlighted by the win over State, the other four wins have came against Big Ten bottom dwellers Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State and Purdue. With Illinois and Northwestern on the schedule this week it puts Nebraska into another situation where neither win will really help them but a single loss could knock them out of contention. The same thing will likely be said about their road trip to Bloomington on the 5th, with it also being another vanilla win that is required. The problem here is if Nebraska won their next three games, but lost to Wisconsin, they'd likely need to win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament to feel good about themselves.

I kind of did do it tongue in check but it does kind of show that we may have played ourselves out of the tourny by winning?

Not really but our win streak seems to have changed how some are now looking at us.

Or I could be just really wayyyyyyyyyyy, waaaaaaaaaaaaaay,wwwwwwwwwwwway of.

You are way way off. This is ridiculous. Played your way out of the tourney by winning?

Skip the circular logic and think about that. You play your way out by losing, play your way in by winning. Period.

[Silverbacked1]

It was a joke that is why the grinning smiley face. That is also why I said it was kind of tongue in cheek.

Of course we aren't winning our way out, but it almost sounds like it from what this guy is saying.

We are seeing that others see this a bit different than us. He is saying that our wins are that big of a deal, while we think it all depends on us winning all the games to finish the year.

Maybe we Win all of our games than lose in the first round of the big and don't get in. We don't know, this is just my way of trying to lighten the mood some. My bad.

[49r]

Gameday edition of the KenPom rankings.  Note also some changes to the "Other teams of interest" section.  It's not comprehensive in the least, but it gives a sampling of teams in the same KenPom neighborhood as us right now. 

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

 

Kenpom rankings as of 2-26-14.
==============================

B1G (8-6):
11. Wisconsin
12. Iowa - L
13. Ohio State - L, W
14. Michigan - L, L
16. Michigan State - W

49. Minnesota - W

50. Nebraska

70. Indiana - W

75. Illinois - W

99. Penn State - L, W

104. Purdue - L, W

123. Northwestern - W

Non-Conference (8-4):
169. Florida Gulf Coast - W
261. Western Illinois - W
342. South Carolina State - W

---Charleston Classic---
45. UMass - L
142. UAB - L
81. Georgia - W

226. Northern Illinois - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
71. Miami - W

4. @Creighton - L
138. Arkansas State - W
349. The Citadel - W
21. @Cincinnati - L

Other teams of interest:

43. Kansas State (19-9)

46. BYU (20-10)

48. Maryland (15-13)
51. California (18-9)

56. Georgetown (16-11)

59. Colorado (20-8)

61. Missouri (19-9)

[49r]

....aaaand the day after....

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

 

Kenpom rankings as of 2-27-14.
==============================

B1G (8-7):
11. Wisconsin
12. Iowa - L
13. Ohio State - L, W
15. Michigan - L, L
17. Michigan State - W

48. Minnesota - W

57. Nebraska

67. Illinois - W, L

69. Indiana - W

98. Penn State - L, W

101. Purdue - L, W

124. Northwestern - W

Non-Conference (8-4):
169. Florida Gulf Coast - W
260. Western Illinois - W
342. South Carolina State - W

---Charleston Classic---
45. UMass - L
144. UAB - L
82. Georgia - W

213. Northern Illinois - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
79. Miami - W

5. @Creighton - L
141. Arkansas State - W
349. The Citadel - W
21. @Cincinnati - L

Other teams of interest:

41. Baylor (18-10)

44. Xavier (19-9)

47. Clemson (17-10)

49. Maryland (15-13)

59. Colorado (20-8)

62. LSU (17-10)

[49r]

Is it March?  Check.

Is Nebraska in 4th in the B1G?  Check.

Am I dreaming???

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

 

Kenpom rankings as of 3-02-14.
==============================

B1G (9-7):
10. Wisconsin
12. Iowa - L
13. Ohio State - L, W
14. Michigan - L, L
18. Michigan State - W

54. Minnesota - W

58. Nebraska

59. Illinois - W, L

67. Indiana - W

92. Penn State - L, W

100. Purdue - L, W

132. Northwestern - W, W

Non-Conference (8-4):
177. Florida Gulf Coast - W
273. Western Illinois - W
342. South Carolina State - W

---Charleston Classic---
47. UMass - L
145. UAB - L
82. Georgia - W

208. Northern Illinois - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
68. Miami - W

7. @Creighton - L
149. Arkansas State - W
347. The Citadel - W
20. @Cincinnati - L

Other teams of interest:

28. Oklahoma State (19-10)

41. Texas (21-8)

49. Providence (19-10)

51. Maryland (15-13)

64. Colorado (20-9)

[49r]

Michigan has leapt back to the top of the chart.  Other than that, not much change as one would expect this time of year.

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

 

Kenpom rankings as of 3-06-14.
==============================

B1G (10-7):
10. Michigan - L, L
11. Wisconsin
12. Iowa - L
13. Ohio State - L, W
19. Michigan State - W

52. Nebraska

57. Minnesota - W

69. Indiana - W, W

71. Illinois - W, L

95. Penn State - L, W

96. Purdue - L, W

133. Northwestern - W, W

Non-Conference (8-4):
173. Florida Gulf Coast - W
272. Western Illinois - W
341. South Carolina State - W

---Charleston Classic---
46. UMass - L
148. UAB - L
77. Georgia - W

207. Northern Illinois - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
68. Miami - W

9. @Creighton - L
149. Arkansas State - W
347. The Citadel - W
18. @Cincinnati - L

Other teams of interest:

41. Stanford (18-11)

43. Xavier (20-10)

50. Maryland (16-14)

54. Providence (20-10)

59. Colorado (21-9)

[nuled2dance]

Let them lose...we best Wisconsin that win will be all we need

[49r]

What more can be said about what we've done this year?  It's been an amazing season, and there's still plenty left to play for.  Enjoy the ride fellas (and ladies), I have a feeling the fun is just beginning!

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

 

Kenpom rankings as of 3-10-14.
==============================

B1G (11-7):
10. Michigan - L, L
12. Wisconsin - W
14. Ohio State - L, W
16. Michigan State - W

17. Iowa - L

47. Nebraska

52. Minnesota - W

64. Indiana - W, W

65. Illinois - W, L

77. Penn State - L, W

106. Purdue - L, W

146. Northwestern - W, W

Non-Conference (8-4):
179. Florida Gulf Coast - W
279. Western Illinois - W
343. South Carolina State - W

---Charleston Classic---
49. UMass - L
147. UAB - L
72. Georgia - W

204. Northern Illinois - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
63. Miami - W

9. @Creighton - L
150. Arkansas State - W
346. The Citadel - W
18. @Cincinnati - L

Other teams of interest:

There are no more interesting teams than Nebraska.

 

Hell of a year for the 'Skers!  GBR!!!

Edited October 1, 2018 by 49r

[Norm Peterson]

I think Ken needs to adjust his methods a bit.  My guess is he places too much weight on what teams did back in November and not enough, comparatively, on how they're playing in February and March.  If all games are counted in basically the same way and if he doesn't place more weight on more recent games, then his system needs a tweak.

 

I remember Roy Williams' old KU teams always did well early in the year because he had them in mid-season form earlier than other coaches.  They'd win a pre-season NIT or something like that because he just had them closer to their potential sooner.  Then, as the season dragged on, other teams and coaches would kind of catch up to KU and they wouldn't be quite as (comparatively) good at the end of the year as they were at the start.

 

Some teams have a steeper learning curve than others and those teams might start out slower and pick up steam as they go along.  Others might not have a learning curve at all and are as good in November as they're going to be all year.  Which gives them an advantage in November and a disadvantage in February.  And, so it is with Nebraska.  We had a steep learning curve this year and are far better now than we were when we lost to UMass and UAB.  Far better.

 

Does anyone know whether Kenpom's system treats games played in November and December the same way that it treats games played in February and March?

[tcp]

@Norm: his system doesn't. No rpi system does because it's a straight data cruncher with consistent rules and no "date" weights.

that said, we need to worry about the committees system, not Pomeroys.

I have gotten one thing wrong this week apparently. The CM Newton days of the committee are over, I guess. They used to care quite a bit about how teams did near the end of the season--it was a significant tie breaker for a lot of bids. But apparently that's supposed to no longer be the case.

Personally, I'm not sure how hot finishes can be ignored during selection. But if it is ignored, then our resume isn't quite as strong as it otherwise should be, which also explains why Iowa is getting the pass it is getting right now.

[throwback]

NCAA RPI rankings thru March 9:

 

Lots of very good news here for NU! 3 Top 25 wins now! Would help if Minny could get in the Top 50, Indiana stay in Top 100, and Miami get into Top 100 during conf tournament games.

 

Too bad Ohio St probably will drop out of the Top 25 when we beat them Friday. 

 

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

 

BIG TEN

6. Wisconsin - W

9. Michigan - L, L

23. Ohio State - L, W

24. Michigan State - W

41. Nebraska

49. Iowa - L

51. Minnesota - W

68. Illinois - W, L

91. Indiana - W, W

111. Penn State - L, W

133. Northwestern - W, W

139. Purdue - L, W

Non-Conference

7. Creighton - L

15. Cincinnati - L

17. UMass - L

73. Georgia - W

107. Miami - W
143. UAB - L 
147. Florida Gulf Coast - W
190. Arkansas State - W
209. Northern Illinois - W
288. Western Illinois - W
325. South Carolina State - W
345. The Citadel - W
 

• NU vs Top 25: 3-6
• NU vs Top 50: 3-7
• NU vs Top 100: 8-8
• NU vs Top 150: 14-11

 

• NU vs 25-50: 0-1
• NU vs 25-75: 3-2
• NU vs 25-100: 5-2
• NU vs 50-100: 5-1
• NU vs 50-150: 11-4
• NU vs 101-200: 7-3
• NU vs 150+: 5-0
• NU vs 200+: 4-0

[hhcmatt]

Looks who cracked KenPom B1G top 5

 

[49r]

In front of Marble, eh?

[Norm Peterson]

@Norm: his system doesn't. No rpi system does because it's a straight data cruncher with consistent rules and no "date" weights.

that said, we need to worry about the committees system, not Pomeroys.

I have gotten one thing wrong this week apparently. The CM Newton days of the committee are over, I guess. They used to care quite a bit about how teams did near the end of the season--it was a significant tie breaker for a lot of bids. But apparently that's supposed to no longer be the case.

Personally, I'm not sure how hot finishes can be ignored during selection. But if it is ignored, then our resume isn't quite as strong as it otherwise should be, which also explains why Iowa is getting the pass it is getting right now.

Thanks, tcp.  I wondered.  Seems to me, though, that the math guys should be able to figure out some sort of algorithm to weigh more recent success more heavily than distant success.  And, by the same token, distant failure should matter less than a late-season swoon.  It's just common sense.  A surging team vs. a flagging team -- bet on the surging team.  Amiright?

[GoBigRed]

@Norm: his system doesn't. No rpi system does because it's a straight data cruncher with consistent rules and no "date" weights.

that said, we need to worry about the committees system, not Pomeroys.

I have gotten one thing wrong this week apparently. The CM Newton days of the committee are over, I guess. They used to care quite a bit about how teams did near the end of the season--it was a significant tie breaker for a lot of bids. But apparently that's supposed to no longer be the case.

Personally, I'm not sure how hot finishes can be ignored during selection. But if it is ignored, then our resume isn't quite as strong as it otherwise should be, which also explains why Iowa is getting the pass it is getting right now.

 

True, Last 10 games is not used by the committee anymore. However, they do discuss things and they are human and certainly comments like "Nebraska has been one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the Big Ten over the last month and a half" will be uttered, and that will have some value in people's minds.

[AuroranHusker]

Looks who cracked KenPom B1G top 5

 

 

Just curious, how is this determined?

[doc1394]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/big_ten_log51

No love

[49r]

[AuroranHusker]

Tim Miles is no fan of Ken's "broken" computer:

 

 

[Cookie Belcher]

Absolutely love our coach. So much.