KenPom 2022-2023 KenPom Rankings Thread

[Huskerpapa]

Slightly off topic, but does the system factor miscellaneous crap into the equation?

For example, Kentucky's big dude is an absolute stud.  When he is in their lineup, they are a top five type team; when he is out, they are pretty pedestrian.  Last night, after he fouled out, MSU ran away from them.  

[hhcmatt]

52 minutes ago, Huskerpapa said:

Slightly off topic, but does the system factor miscellaneous crap into the equation?

For example, Kentucky's big dude is an absolute stud.  When he is in their lineup, they are a top five type team; when he is out, they are pretty pedestrian.  Last night, after he fouled out, MSU ran away from them.  

 

OT is treated the same as any other time - https://kenpom.com/blog/the-simplest-proof-that-overtime-data-is-useful-and-that-garbage-time-exists/

[hhcmatt]

KenPom doesn't factor wins or loses at all.  The rankings are determined by Efficiency Margin which is taking your Adjusted offensive efficiency margin and subtracting your adjusted defensive efficiency number.  These scoring efficiencies are adjusted by your strength of opponent.  (Losing to Duke by 5 is more impressive than beating Elon by 8.)

 

Early in the season, strength of opponent is formulated based on assumptions including previous year's results.  As the year moves along, it becomes based more on this year's results.  You'll notice that KenPom starts to gain in HHCC during the season as it often gets better once it has better data.  You'll also notice at the beginning of the year KenPom won't be as good at identifying teams like Omaha so you can potentially take them and the points until it corrects.  (Please don't ever gamble on anything I post on this site)

[49r]

 

Seems like at halftime there was still a sliver of hope that we were going to see some actual improvement in this team, but I guess not?  At any event we soldier on and look forward to coaching carousel season.  That is always fun.  But anyway, on to todays KenPom update.

 

Big jump for Michigan State, big drop for Michigan.  Penn State and Rutgers doing the thing that we wish we could do (make solid inroads into the middle of the Big Ten pack) and Stanford/Florida State dropping pretty steady.  But hey, look at the bright side.  At least we aren't Minnesota, and it's always nice to see Wisconsin down towards the bottom of the Big Ten standings, hope they can stay down there.   That's it for today, Here we go!

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-18-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
10. Indiana
15. Iowa
19. Michigan State
23. Purdue
25. Illinois
28. Ohio State
34. Penn State
38. Michigan
40. Rutgers
44. Maryland
47. Wisconsin
55. Northwestern
120. Nebraska
146. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (2-1):
343. Maine - W
331. Omaha - W

---Gavitt Games---
37. @St. John's - L

356. Arkansas Pine-Bluff

---ESPN Events Invitational---
41. Oklahoma
29/45. Memphis/Seton Hall
43/70/104/235. Ole Miss/Stanford/Florida State/Siena

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
105. Boston College

20. @Creighton
66. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
229. Queens University of Charlotte

[Norm Peterson]

How's North Texas doing this year?

[hhcmatt]

13 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

How's North Texas doing this year?

 

You don't need a subscription to see where they're currently ranked https://kenpom.com/

[49r]

17 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

How's North Texas doing this year?

 

They squeaked by D2 Southern Nazarene in their opener and got blasted by Saint Mary's last time out. But they're still ranked a fair piece ahead of us that's for sure.

 

2023 Schedule 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Mon Nov 7	67	NR	Southern Nazarene	W, 53-47	55		Home	1-0
Sun Nov 13	66	22	Saint Mary's	L, 63-33	55		Away	1-1
Sat Nov 19		121	Fresno St.	W, 63-57	62	71%	Home
Tue Nov 22		NR	Paul Quinn	W		100%	Home
Fri Nov 25		222	San Jose St.	W, 67-58	63	79%	Neutral
Sat Dec 3		331	Nebraska Omaha	W, 75-56	65	95%	Home
Tue Dec 6		256	UT Arlington	W, 67-59	65	76%	Away
Sat Dec 10		104	Grand Canyon	W, 61-60	62	51%	Semi-Away
Sat Dec 17		149	Massachusetts	W, 68-64	66	62%	Semi-Away
Thu Dec 22		302	UTSA	W, 69-59	66	81%	Away		×
Thu Dec 29		79	Florida Atlantic	W, 69-66	67	62%	Home		×
Sat Dec 31		234	FIU	W, 74-60	68	89%	Home		×
Thu Jan 5		94	Western Kentucky	L, 66-64	65	43%	Away		×
Sat Jan 7		107	Middle Tennessee	L, 64-63	66	47%	Away		×
Wed Jan 11		143	Louisiana Tech	W, 70-62	66	76%	Home		×
Sat Jan 14		79	Florida Atlantic	L, 69-66	67	39%	Away		×
Mon Jan 16		234	FIU	W, 71-64	68	73%	Away		×
Thu Jan 19		255	Rice	W, 73-59	66	90%	Home		×
Sat Jan 21		48	UAB	L, 74-67	70	26%	Away		×
Thu Jan 26		302	UTSA	W, 72-56	66	93%	Home		×
Sat Jan 28		169	UTEP	W, 67-57	65	81%	Home		×
Sat Feb 4		255	Rice	W, 70-63	66	76%	Away		×
Thu Feb 9		48	UAB	L, 71-70	70	49%	Home		×
Sat Feb 11		142	Charlotte	W, 65-57	63	75%	Home		×
Thu Feb 16		143	Louisiana Tech	W, 67-66	66	54%	Away		×
Sat Feb 18		169	UTEP	W, 63-60	65	61%	Away		×
Thu Feb 23		142	Charlotte	W, 62-61	63	53%	Away		×
Thu Mar 2		107	Middle Tennessee	W, 66-61	66	70%	Home		×
Sat Mar 4		94	Western Kentucky	W, 67-62	65	66%	Home		×
Projected record:								19-10	13-7

 

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by 49r

[hskr4life]

43 PPG isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire.

[49r]

Holy crap Maryland gets two big wins over the weekend and jumps nearly 20 spots.  Other than that, not a lot of change going on.  Still feels weird to see Penn State, Rutgers and Northwestern up so high.  In other news, San Jose State gets a big road win over the weekend, moving them up to #203, by far the highest ranking of the Tim Miles era.  We may see them into the 100's pretty soon.  Okay, that's it for today.  Sorry for the late update but I was a bit busy with the World Cup and all yesterday.  Here we go!

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-22-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
8. Indiana
16. Iowa
22. Michigan State
23. Maryland
24. Illinois
25. Purdue
30. Penn State
31. Ohio State
42. Michigan
41. Wisconsin
45. Rutgers
59. Northwestern
111. Nebraska
148. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (3-1):
328. Maine - W
333. Omaha - W

---Gavitt Games---
34. @St. John's - L

354. Arkansas Pine-Bluff - W

---ESPN Events Invitational---
49. Oklahoma
27/35. Memphis/Seton Hall
51/61/107/249. Ole Miss/Stanford/Florida State/Siena

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
101. Boston College

19. @Creighton
60. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
212. Queens University of Charlotte

[49r]

Updated now to include today's opponent, Memphis.  Here we go!

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-24-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
10. Indiana
13. Iowa
21. Ohio State
23. Illinois
24. Michigan State
25. Maryland
26. Purdue
31. Penn State
40. Rutgers
42. Michigan
43. Wisconsin
50. Northwestern
118. Nebraska
152. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (3-2):
313. Maine - W
333. Omaha - W

---Gavitt Games---
33. @St. John's - L

353. Arkansas Pine-Bluff - W

---ESPN Events Invitational---
42. Oklahoma - L
29. Memphis
64/138. Stanford/Florida State

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
99. Boston College

16. @Creighton
54. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
212. Queens University of Charlotte

Edited November 25, 2022 by 49r

[busticket]

If you are 300+ we win.  If you are top 50 we lose.  

 

Now we are playing a team in the 100’s.  Tomorrow will be interesting.  

[49r]

LOTS of shuffling going on in the Big Ten.  Still early but Big Ten looks like they are pretty comfortably the second best league in the country.  If it didn't include us and Minnesota, it's very possibly #1.  Not a great scenario for an embattled coach trying to save his job.

 

I think that after the new year I may start taking suggestions of teams we may want to include in the "other teams to watch" section, and I'm pretty sure I know what @Norm Peterson's suggestion will be.  But I digress, Here we go!

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-28-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
7. Purdue
11. Indiana
19. Ohio State
22. Illinois
23. Iowa
24. Maryland
30. Michigan State
33. Penn State
36. Rutgers
40. Wisconsin
46. Northwestern
53. Michigan
111. Nebraska
154. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (4-3):
312. Maine - W
306. Omaha - W

---Gavitt Games---
38. @St. John's - L

354. Arkansas Pine-Bluff - W

---ESPN Events Invitational---
31. Oklahoma - L
27. Memphis - L
164. Florida State - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
107. Boston College

15. @Creighton
50. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
211. Queens University of Charlotte

[hskr4life]

Thanks!  What’s the best league?  ACC? SEC?

[hhcmatt]

49 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Thanks!  What’s the best league?  ACC? SEC?

 

Big 12. Their worst KenPom team is 5-0 Kansas St

[hskr4life]

3 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Big 12. Their worst KenPom team is 5-0 Kansas St

Wow— that league could be a slog this year with all teams inside the top 50

[49r]

8 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Thanks!  What’s the best league?  ACC? SEC?

 

Here's the full list according to Ken:

 

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference		Rating	Conference		Rating
1	Big 12 Conference	+18.64	18	Mid American Conference	-4.54
2	Big Ten Conference	+16.96	19	ASUN Conference	-4.59
3	Southeastern Conference	+16.34	20	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference	-4.88
4	Big East Conference	+13.12	21	Big South Conference	-5.27
5	Pac 12 Conference	+11.76	22	Colonial Athletic Association	-6.13
6	Atlantic Coast Conference	+10.95	23	Summit League	-6.49
7	Mountain West Conference	+7.34	24	Big Sky Conference	-7.34
8	American Athletic Conference	+7.23	25	Patriot League	-7.42
9	West Coast Conference	+6.67	26	Horizon League	-7.44
10	Atlantic 10 Conference	+3.65	27	America East Conference	-8.19
11	Conference USA	+2.88	28	Ohio Valley Conference	-10.38
12	Missouri Valley Conference	+0.65	29	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference	-10.42
13	Western Athletic Conference	-0.18	30	Southland Conference	-13.20
14	Sun Belt Conference	-1.42	31	Southwestern Athletic Conference	-13.25
15	Southern Conference	-2.06	32	Northeast Conference	-14.54
16	Big West Conference	-2.44	33	Independents	-20.97
17	Ivy League	-3.32

[Norm Peterson]

Top 100 baby!

 

(Nebraska checking in at #97 this morning. Way to go, fellas.)

[Norm Peterson]

The three teams who have beaten us are ranked #27, #30 and #41 in the current Kenpom rankings.

 

Two of those were neutral site games and the other was an away game. I don't feel a great sense of shame in those losses. FFS, we're not losing to Nevada at home for once. Thank God for that.

[49r]

@Norm Peterson, you are correct that our three losses have been only against teams ranked above 50 in KenPom, but the bad news is 18 of our remaining 22 games come against teams ranked above 50 in KenPom.  Nevertheless we are now back (finally) in the double digit club.  Who knows how long that might last, but if I had to guess I would imagine that Hoiberg's tenure at Nebraska may depend on it lasting longer than not.  Another interesting tidbit, KenPom has now upped our predicted win total to 12!  We started the year off at 10 predicted wins so hey it's improvement.  Once again there's a lot of shuffling in the Big Ten, particularly in the Illinois to Ohio State range, suspect that may continue all year.  

 

But that's about all I have for today so without any further ado, here we go!

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-01-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
7. Purdue
8. Indiana
16. Illinois
20. Maryland
21. Iowa
22. Ohio State
34. Michigan State
35. Penn State
39. Rutgers
46. Wisconsin
49. Michigan
74. Northwestern
97. Nebraska
149. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (5-3):
307. Maine - W
303. Omaha - W

---Gavitt Games---
41. @St. John's - L

355. Arkansas Pine-Bluff - W

---ESPN Events Invitational---
30. Oklahoma - L
27. Memphis - L
162. Florida State - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
124. Boston College - W

14. @Creighton
60. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
206. Queens University of Charlotte

[hhcmatt]

19 minutes ago, 49r said:

Another interesting tidbit, KenPom has now upped our predicted win total to 12!  We started the year off at 10 predicted wins so hey it's improvement.

 

 

[Norm Peterson]

Don't wanna steal anyone's thunder, BUT ...

 

I peaked. We got a nice little bump.

 

Add that to the fact those other guys took a dump.

[hhcmatt]

[49r]

In the last update I mentioned that staying in the double digits, KenPom ranking-wise, would be crucial for Fred to have hopes of retaining his job for another year.  Well, yesterday's win made that goal a whole lot more realistic.  If we get a win in the next three games I will be decently optimistic going in to the New Year that we will be able to beat last year's win total.  And stay in the double digits.

 

Also, with yesterday's win, KenPom has upped our predicted win total once again to 14.  If we beat that by two, then an NIT berth would be very much on the table.  But let's not get ahead of ourselves here, still a very long ways to go.

 

One thing that I am impressed by when I look at the Big Ten rankings is the lower 40% of the league does not look so far out of reach for us now as it did just a week or two ago.  Hopefully we can keep grinding out some wins here and there and move even closer still.  We'll just have to wait and see.

 

Rankings are starting to gel up some so there isn't a lot of movement to comment on.  So I'll end my comments with that.  Here we go!

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-05-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
6. Purdue
10. Indiana
18. Illinois
19. Maryland
20. Ohio State
21. Iowa
30. Rutgers
36. Penn State
42. Wisconsin
45. Michigan State
47. Michigan
64. Northwestern
78. Nebraska
151. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (6-3):
296. Maine - W
306. Omaha - W

---Gavitt Games---
46. @St. John's - L

354. Arkansas Pine-Bluff - W

---ESPN Events Invitational---
32. Oklahoma - L
25. Memphis - L
150. Florida State - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
133. Boston College - W

22. @Creighton - W
59. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
203. Queens University of Charlotte

[hskr4life]

#59 in first NET rankings.  Funny enough we’ve yet to play a Q2 or Q3 opponent.

 

5-0 in Q4

1-3 in Q1

[Norm Peterson]

3 hours ago, 49r said:

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-05-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
6. Purdue
10. Indiana
18. Illinois
19. Maryland
20. Ohio State
21. Iowa
30. Rutgers
36. Penn State
42. Wisconsin
45. Michigan State
47. Michigan
64. Northwestern
78. Nebraska
151. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (6-3):
296. Maine - W
306. Omaha - W

---Gavitt Games---
46. @St. John's - L

354. Arkansas Pine-Bluff - W

---ESPN Events Invitational---
32. Oklahoma - L
25. Memphis - L
150. Florida State - W

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
133. Boston College - W

22. @Creighton - W
59. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
203. Queens University of Charlotte

 

Conference home games in bold.

 

Not sayin'; just sayin'.