Selection Committee Games of Interest

[royalfan]

Stating something we should do or not do in the future is not a complaint.  I didn't criticize anyone for playing them, although it is destroying the RPI.   You should learn from things all the time.  It is similar to learning from our horrible 3 point defense last year and adjusting.  We can learn from this and adjust too    Just because you have been doing something doesn't mean you should continue to do it.  Not really that complicated.  Have you taken a gander at the records in that league?  There is one team with a 13-10 record and the rest losing records.  We should not be partaking in that if at all possible as long as the committee uses metrics that hurt you for it. 

[hskr4life]

Just for reference, I looked to see what other notable teams played Delaware State this year...

 

DePaul

Pittsburgh

Penn

[HuskerFever]

10 hours ago, royalfan said:

Notre Dame 71/North Carolina 9   6pm ESPN  N. Carolina - 10 1/2 We want N. Carolina to help eliminate ND and to help bump ND from Q1
East Tennessee State 63/UNC Greensboro 91- 6 pm ESPN3  UNC Greensboro -3 Need UNC Greensboro
Delaware State  350/Norfolk State 276 - 6 pm ESPNU  Norfolk St - 12 Need Delaware St. 
TCU 24/West Virginia  34 - 8pm ESPN2 West Virginia -8 Need West Virginia
Baylor  61/Texas  48 - 8pm ESPN  Texas - 2 1/2  Need Baylor

 

Updating.

Edited February 13, 2018 by HuskerFever

[HuskerActuary]

I don't want to see a single team on next year's schedule that had an RPI of worse than 300 in 2017-2018. The difference between 200-299 teams and 300-360ish teams is significant toward RPI, but not a big difference toward win probability (e.g. 98% versus 95%). This is important. 

[royalfan]

The league is 92-214 on the year so you get hammered by not only Deleware st record, but their opponents record as well which is 25 percent of RPI.  92-214.  That is beyond ridiculous.  

[HuskerFever]

5 minutes ago, royalfan said:

The league is 92-214 on the year so you get hammered by not only Deleware st record, but their opponents record as well which is 25 percent of RPI.  92-214.  That is beyond ridiculous.  

 

That makes our SWAC championships under Sadler look amazing.

[REDZONEDAN]

I think Miles overreacted a little bit (which I don’t blame him) after scheduling tough last year and then getting screwed over by Traitor III.  Having so many new guys on the roster I think he thought the Big Ten would be strong enough to where he could schedule some softer teams in non-conference in order to prepare them for conference games. If he had a crystal ball to see the Big Ten would be down I think he would have scheduled tougher non-conference games.

[hskr4life]

The only concern that I would have is that we were not playing like we are now back in November and December.  It really took us until the middle of December to find a little groove and then by January we really got the ball rolling.  A tougher game or two in the Non-Con may have been nice, but a few losses to better RPI teams might have threw this season in an entirely different direction.  Just a thought.

[hhcmatt]

 

1 hour ago, HuskerActuary said:

I don't want to see a single team on next year's schedule that had an RPI of worse than 300 in 2017-2018. The difference between 200-299 teams and 300-360ish teams is significant toward RPI, but not a big difference toward win probability (e.g. 98% versus 95%). This is important. 

 

We do schedule in a few turds just because we want a couple of wins or because that's all we can schedule.  However I do know that we try and figure out which teams are going to win a lot of games in their conference so that we can game the RPI. Sometimes teams like Eastern Illinois have injuries and end up tanking which seems more reliable than just checking what teams were ranked the year before.

 

As far as sub 300 games go.....

 

2014 http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/schedule/Nebraska 19 wins, RPI 53 4-8 vs Top 50 (AKA future Q1), SOS 30

2018 http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Nebraska Thus far - 19 wins, RPI 54,  0-6 vs Q1, SOS 94

 

Our big problem isn't Delaware St...it's that we lost to UCF which put Long Beach St and Marist on the schedule....which wouldn't have been a huge problem if the B1G was up....which wouldn't have been as bad if Wisconsin and Minnesota hadn't fallen off a cliff.  Delaware St and Stetson are hurting our RPI but it's not the main issue because the big thing missing on our resume is lack of wins against good teams, not a slight bump in the RPI. We needed to replace Delaware St with a top quad 1 game, not a game vs some mid-major. 

 

One thing I do see with our schedule is that we didn't exactly beat the pants off of Stetson nor Delaware St. While these are a couple of sub 300 wins it occurs to me that they sure aren't sub 200 loses like we've had in seasons prior.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

The only concern that I would have is that we were not playing like we are now back in November and December.  It really took us until the middle of December to find a little groove and then by January we really got the ball rolling.  A tougher game or two in the Non-Con may have been nice, but a few losses to better RPI teams might have threw this season in an entirely different direction.  Just a thought.

 

That is a valid concern. Nebraska struggled mightily in several games they had no business even being close to losing (namely E. Illinois, UTSA & Stetson).

[HuskerActuary]

2 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

 

We do schedule in a few turds just because we want a couple of wins or because that's all we can schedule.  However I do know that we try and figure out which teams are going to win a lot of games in their conference so that we can game the RPI. Sometimes teams like Eastern Illinois have injuries and end up tanking which seems more reliable than just checking what teams were ranked the year before.

 

As far as sub 300 games go.....

 

2014 http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/schedule/Nebraska 19 wins, RPI 53 4-8 vs Top 50 (AKA future Q1), SOS 30

2018 http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Nebraska Thus far - 19 wins, RPI 54,  0-6 vs Q1, SOS 94

 

Our big problem isn't Delaware St...it's that we lost to UCF which put Long Beach St and Marist on the schedule....which wouldn't have been a huge problem if the B1G was up....which wouldn't have been as bad if Wisconsin and Minnesota hadn't fallen off a cliff.  Delaware St and Stetson are hurting our RPI but it's not the main issue because the big thing missing on our resume is lack of wins against good teams, not a slight bump in the RPI. We needed to replace Delaware St with a top quad 1 game, not a game vs some mid-major. 

 

One thing I do see with our schedule is that we didn't exactly beat the pants off of Stetson nor Delaware St. While these are a couple of sub 300 wins it occurs to me that they sure aren't sub 200 loses like we've had in seasons prior.

Oh yeah, I don't disagree with any of that. A top quad 1 game would be even better than a mid major. But not scheduling the 300+ RPI teams should be a gimme. Requires no effort. And, I've got other stuff to do tonight, but maybe later I'll figure out the impact to RPI of Delaware State. It might be more than "slight" depending on your definition of slight. At least five spots, I'm nearly certain.

[HuskerFever]

Remaining two games tonight:

 

06:06 2nd TCU/West Virginia 55-64

05:16 2nd Baylor/Texas 49-43

Edited February 13, 2018 by HuskerFever

[HuskerFever]

According to ESPN BPI:

 

For either team (Baylor/Texas), the loser should see a 30 point swing in probability of making the NCAA tournament.

 

I can't remember Baylor's right off, but Texas losing would put them at a 51% chance.

[royalfan]

I think baylor was 71 with a win and 41 with  loss if memory serves and that is a big if

Edited February 13, 2018 by royalfan

[HuskerFever]

Nobody wants to win this one. I'm shocked Texas is in this one because of its free throws.

[Blindcheck]

Scheduling....for RPI reasons, I don’t understand why we don’t play at UNO every other year.....

 

get a road game....against middle of road team...that should be an easy trip.....( not necessarily an easy win)

 

replace delaware st at home with UNO on road this year and should help.

 

i would do home and home with UNO and Drake....alternate years....give team early season road experience and not hammer RPI as much as Delaware st does.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Blindcheck

[HuskerFever]

2 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Notre Dame 71/North Carolina 9   6pm ESPN  N. Carolina - 10 1/2 We want N. Carolina to help eliminate ND and to help bump ND from Q1
East Tennessee State 63/UNC Greensboro 91- 6 pm ESPN3  UNC Greensboro -3 Need UNC Greensboro
Delaware State  350/Norfolk State 276 - 6 pm ESPNU  Norfolk St - 12 Need Delaware St. 
TCU 24/West Virginia  34 - 8pm ESPN2 West Virginia -8 Need West Virginia
Baylor  61/Texas  48 - 8pm ESPN  Texas - 2 1/2  Need Baylor

 

Always good to see Texas lose.

 

Delaware State. You're useless.

[HuskerFever]

Tuesday's Games of Interest:

 

Georgetown/Butler - knock down Butler
Boston College/Pittsburgh - win for us
Nebraska/Maryland - no brainer
Texas A&M/Missouri - tough, but going with Texas A&M on this one
Arkansas/Ole Miss - knock off Arkansas
St. Bonaventure/La Salle - somebody take care of the Bonnies
Kent State/Buffalo - no more Buffalo
Richmond/Rhode Island - just knock off URI
Virginia/Miami - might as well go against Miami
South Carolina/Tennessee - take care of USC
LSU/Alabama - tough one, but take knock off LSU

 

Wednesday's Games of Interest:

 

South Florida/UCF - need UCF to keep winning
Iowa/Michigan - going with the flawed RPI/Tier approach
Villanova/Providence - not sure how Providence is still a thing
Clemson/Florida State - knock off FSU
Virginia Tech/Duke - VaTech's getting comfortable
Mississippi State/Vanderbilt - down with MSU
Kansas State/Oklahoma State - going with OSU on this one
Illinois/Indiana - we play Illinois twice
Seton Hall/Xavier - known down Seton Hall
Kentucky/Auburn - likely doesn't matter, but a Kentucky 4-game losing streak sounds like
NC State/Syracuse - NC State has the better wins; knock out Syracuse
Georgia/Florida - Florida just in case
Memphis/SMU - going with Memphis
St. John's/DePaul - both teams took care of business for us; need St. John's
Air Force/UNLV - hush the UNLV conversation
Nevada/Boise State - knock Boise State out
Wyoming/San Diego State - becoming less of an issue, but go SDSU

[FredsSlacks]

so from what i can gather this is where we are at:

 

-win the next 4 and we are in.

 

-go 3-1, and we might need to win a B1G tourney game

 

-go 2-2, and we for sure need to win at least 1 B1G tourney game.

[OmahaHusker]

Im just seeing these we wanted Baylor? They're on the bubble on bracket matrix but Texas was in as a 10 seed. Wouldn't we want Baylor to move down for us rather then them and Texas pretty much just switching spots?

[HuskerFever]

2 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

Im just seeing these we wanted Baylor? They're on the bubble on bracket matrix but Texas was in as a 10 seed. Wouldn't we want Baylor to move down for us rather then them and Texas pretty much just switching spots?

 

Both teams have three more ranked teams to play. This is one of those situations where a win by Baylor tonight and a fallout by both teams at the end will knock both of them out.

 

Easily one of those scenarios where it would've been much more clear who to root for in hindsight.

[HuskerFever]

4 minutes ago, TimSmiles said:

so from what i can gather this is where we are at:

 

-win the next 4 and we are in.

 

-go 3-1, and we might need to win a B1G tourney game

 

-go 2-2, and we for sure need to win at least 1 B1G tourney game.

 

Depending on where the committee's head is at, your first two scenarios may require 1 win in the Big Ten tournament. Wouldn't hurt to just win one and not sweat it out come Selection Sunday.

[The Polish Rifle]

4 minutes ago, TimSmiles said:

so from what i can gather this is where we are at:

 

-win the next 4 and we are in.

 

-go 3-1, and we might need to win a B1G tourney game

 

-go 2-2, and we for sure need to win at least 1 B1G tourney game.

I think 2-2 and we might be out, unless we win the entire B1G tournament. I think if we go 4-0 we're in, today Kugler said that no big 10 team with 20+ wins and less than 7 conf losses has missed the tournament and 23-9 (14-4) will have sprinted past that mark. 3-1 is where it gets interesting....probably sweating it out on Sunday with 0-1 conf tournament wins.

[The Polish Rifle]

2 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

I think 2-2 and we might be out, unless we win the entire B1G tournament. I think if we go 4-0 we're in, today Kugler said that no big 10 team with 20+ wins and less than 7 conf losses has missed the tournament and 23-9 (14-4) will have sprinted past that mark. 3-1 is where it gets interesting....probably sweating it out on Sunday with 0-1 conf tournament wins.

Also the fact I'm breaking down our tournament hopes at 11pm in mid-February makes me so happy.

[nuhusker7]

Regarding Kentucky, I feel like the best thing for us is if they do make the tournament... as a 6 or 7 seed, and we are a 10 or 11 and we get to play them.