Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

12 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

 

Enjoy:  http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Nebraska&year=2018

 

 

 

I love the idea of this website, but if I modified our Creighton and Kansas games to wins it still has us as the 3rd team out. No way would we be out with an 18-6 record and RPI of 40 (see below) with wins over CU (road), KU, and Michigan. This website is faulty.

 

RPI = (0.25 * WP) + (0.5 * OWP) + (0.25 * OOWP)

where WP = Win %, OWP = Opp Win %, and OOWP = Opp Opp Win %

*Note that for determining the win percentages, a home win is only worth 0.6 wins, a home loss is worth 1.4 losses, a road win is worth 1.4 wins, and a road loss is worth only 0.6 losses.

 

So, our current WP is 66.7% (12 wins to 6 losses). It would have been 77.8% if we had beaten CU and KU (14 wins to 4 losses). Multiply that difference by the 0.25 applied in the formula and you have a 0.0278 increase in RPI, which jumps us from 63rd to 40th per ESPN. @Norm Peterson

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

13 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

This is really interesting thanks for sharing this. According to this site, I'm surprised it doesn't have us 100% in the field if we would've just beaten Creighton and Kansas. Looks like we'd still be in the first four out, but we'd be a legitimate bubble team.

 

See my post above. I did the exact same thing as you and was surprised. But there's no way that's accurate.

[Swan88]

14 minutes ago, hhctony said:

most of what's brining us down conference-wise is we didn't beat anybody.

Sixteen teems plus Mississippi State would beg to differ.  But I know what you mean.

The dickens is that a rim-out on Anton Gill's final shot is the difference between a win and a loss against Kansas.  

And we haven't had a bad loss since the blowout against Michigan St., which happened fifteen games ago, on December 3.  I remember walking, two days later, from my car to the Vault for the Minnesota (then ranked in the mid-teens) game thinking, "We're gonna' get blown out again tonight, the season is going into the tank, and Miles is going to get fired."  But the Huskers played a great game and have been on an upward trajectory ever since, a few disappointments along the way notwithstanding! 

[Norm Peterson]

4 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

See my post above. I did the exact same thing as you and was surprised. But there's no way that's accurate.

 

I did it where we win all the rest of our regular season games including @Wisconsin and @Minnesota and follow that with a win over Michigan in the conference quarters before losing to Purdue in the semis.  The best I could get out of that was 6th team out.  Crazy.

[Norm Peterson]

The good news is that if we win every game from here on out, including the conference tourney, we sneak into the NCAA tournament as an 11 seed.

[OmahaHusker]

Just now, Norm Peterson said:

The good news is that if we win every game from here on out, including the conference tourney, we sneak into the NCAA tournament as an 11 seed.

 

More good news. If we win every regular season game and beat Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State in the B1G tourney we get a 9 seed.

[Norm Peterson]

Just now, OmahaHusker said:

 

More good news. If we win every regular season game and beat Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State in the B1G tourney we get a 9 seed.

 

They must like you better because when I ran that scenario it told me 11 seed.  The bastards.

[HuskerPower #nato73]

I vouch not for it's accuracy but the computers don't like us.  Not only do we have the losses at our best opportunities (KU and CU  for example), we also have the weird scheduling quirk where we play the 5 other good teams in the conference once and the three best all on the road. Our "profile" looks mid-major-ish and that's unfortunately the way it is.  I am focusing my cheering on hoping we get the double-bye in the conference tourney and then letting the chips fall where they may because there is nothing we can do about it at this point.  If we end up as a 22 win NIT team then I hope we will win several more games and set-up a great base for next year.

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

I agree that we're a tournament-worthy team, though I'm not saying we have a tournament-worthy resume. But how can you say that we don't have flaws? We're terrible at rebounding, which is considered by many to be a huge liability come tournament time.

 

I actually didn’t say we don’t have flaws.  I actually said the exact opposite.  I said “there isn’t too many on there that don’t have flaws like us.”  Meaning every single team on there has flaws much like we do.  

[big red22]

According to this site we are a 5 seed in the NIT (LINK)

 

That means we have at least 17 teams ahead of us at the moment that are more NCAA ready than us

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

4 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

I actually didn’t say we don’t have flaws.  I actually said the exact opposite.  I said “there isn’t too many on there that don’t have flaws like us.”  Meaning every single team on there has flaws much like we do.  

 

Ah, gotcha. Sorry about that.

[hskr4life]

Just now, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Ah, gotcha. Sorry about that.

 

Not a problem.  I read it a second time and could see how it could be taken another way.

[mewfert]

One thing about the "Teamcast" tool is that the projected efficiency rating (T-Rank) is not dynamic, so you should change it if you're gaming out scenarios that differ a lot from the expectations. E.g., Nebraska is currently 61st, and that weighs them down both because it effects the projections for unplayed games and because efficiency rating is part of the algorithm for predicting the tourney. The other thing is that it's not a crystal ball—it's very good at showing relative movement, but the absolute predictions obviously have a margin of error. This is especially true for a team like Nebraska that will have an unusual resume (if it keeps winning).

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

3 minutes ago, big red22 said:

According to this site we are a 5 seed in the NIT (LINK)

 

That means we have at least 17 teams ahead of us at the moment that are more NCAA ready than us

 

Seems about right to me, unfortunately. I still think 23 wins is the number that puts us in contention. Lotta work to do.

[hskr4life]

12 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

I vouch not for it's accuracy but the computers don't like us.  Not only do we have the losses at our best opportunities (KU and CU  for example), we also have the weird scheduling quirk where we play the 5 other good teams in the conference once and the three best all on the road. Our "profile" looks mid-major-ish and that's unfortunately the way it is.  I am focusing my cheering on hoping we get the double-bye in the conference tourney and then letting the chips fall where they may because there is nothing we can do about it at this point.  If we end up as a 22 win NIT team then I hope we will win several more games and set-up a great base for next year.

 

Even if it’s Mid Majorish, it’s still a solid Mid major.  It isn’t any worse than Western Kentucky or Middle Tennessee and both of those are in on some brackets.  I just don’t get it sometimes.  Math is hard.  

 

I do know how to add though so keep getting those W’s!

[Lifetimesker]

1 minute ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Seems about right to me, unfortunately. I still think 23 wins is the number that puts us in contention. Lotta work to do.

Sucks to think that 22-9 at regular seasons end puts us on the wrong side of the bubble. Or to think we have no margin of error through our last 7 games to be in contention. Damn, I wish we had the KU game back!

[hhcmatt]

A few thoughts

• Rutgers playing a poor non-conf certainly effects them but doesn't that help us?  50% of your RPI score is opponent's Winning percentage. This is why we try to schedule teams in the non-conf that are projected to win a lot of conference games.  Thus if Rutgers is going to be bad, we certainly want them to play a bunch of bad teams and rack up wins.
• I don't believe that KenPom rankings factor into the decision of who makes the tourney.
• I'd agree that the Top X number of teams in the B1G are guaranteed to go to the tourney is bunk as this is taking the effect and making it the cause.  I do think it's important to us to get that double bye for a shot at a game that could help our tourney chances plus a better shot at winning the thing.
• Unless a team we beat in conference is going to vault into the quadrant 1, I think we want to root for whomever we have played twice for a slight RPI bump.  

 

 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

18 minutes ago, Lifetimesker said:

Sucks to think that 22-9 at regular seasons end puts us on the wrong side of the bubble. Or to think we have no margin of error through our last 7 games to be in contention. Damn, I wish we had the KU game back!

 

I know. I couldn't help but think about the possibility of KU draining a three on that last possession, and of course it ended up happening. That was rough. The Creighton game sucked, too. I really felt like it wasn't evenly reffed. Creighton got some serious home cookin'.

[uneblinstu]

35 minutes ago, big red22 said:

According to this site we are a 5 seed in the NIT (LINK)

 

That means we have at least 17 teams ahead of us at the moment that are more NCAA ready than us

We're all over the board in NIT projections.

[big red22]

29 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Seems about right to me, unfortunately. I still think 23 wins is the number that puts us in contention. Lotta work to do.

I think if we continue to out perform what kenpom predicts we could be okay at 22.  You have to look at a team like Maryland...  If we beat them and they go 6-2 and finish 20-10, and we finish 6-1(22-9) with a loss @Wisconsin.  Do they take Maryland over us?  I don't think so, and right now they are a bubble team

 

Edit: The computers will have them 10+ spots ahead of us, but we have Maryland head to head, better record in conference and better overall record.  Computers are solid, but I know for a fact we would go ahead of Maryland in this scenario

Edited January 29, 2018 by big red22

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

3 minutes ago, big red22 said:

I think if we continue to out perform what kenpom predicts we could be okay at 22.  You have to look at a team like Maryland...  If we beat them and they go 6-2 and finish 20-10, and we finish 6-1(22-9) with a loss @Wisconsin.  Do they take Maryland over us?  I don't think so, and right now they are a bubble team

 

Maybe they'd take us over them. But I wouldn't bank on a head-to-head home win being the deciding factor on that. Especially if it's close.

[big red22]

1 minute ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Maybe they'd take us over them. But I wouldn't bank on a head-to-head home win being the deciding factor on that. Especially if it's close.

Hence the "If we continue to out perform kenpom".  I think that is a key here as much as winning

[hhctony]

Last time I updated this was on page three, so... Tonight's game temporarily a Tier 2 game and Illinois has dropped to a Tier 4 home game (need them in top 160). Most other teams are decently in their tier at this point. The road Wisconsin game and the home Illinois game could flip back and forth. Would be nice is Iowa can keep their RPI at 160 or better. Losers.

 

Edited to show games through January 28. Nebraska currently 65 in RPI.

 

Tier 1 (0-5): Michigan State (22), Creighton (28), Kansas (7), Purdue (8), Ohio State (24). REMAINING: none.

Tier 2 (3-3): St. Johns (103), UCF (71), Boston College (73), Northwestern (100), Penn State (112), Michigan (38). REMAINING: vs. Maryland (59), at Minnesota (98), at Wisconsin (135).

Tier 3 (5-0): Minnesota (98), Long Beach State (168), Wisconsin (133), Rutgers (194), Iowa (152). REMAINING: at Illinois (164), vs. Indiana (114), vs. Penn State (112). 

Tier 4 (8-0): Eastern Illinois (278), North Texas (204), North Dakota (209), Marist (326), UTSA (268), Delaware State (351), Stetson (300), Illinois (164). REMAINING: vs. Rutgers (194)

[big red22]

57 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Maybe they'd take us over them. But I wouldn't bank on a head-to-head home win being the deciding factor on that. Especially if it's close.

Not to mention when we played Minnesota they were 8-1.  They were a top 10 team and at full strength with wins over Providence and Alabama. 

 

There is way to much computers can't do, and people add that into account... the selection committee will do just that.  They will also take note that St. Johns lost Lovett after playing us.  He was a huge part in their victory against us. 

 

I know you are not hating, but please take the charts, math ect... out of this.  They will give us the benefit of the doubt if we do go 12-6 in the league, because they will see those two game in a different light.  That Minnesota win in my opinion was a bigger win than Michigan

Edited January 29, 2018 by big red22

[HuskerFever]

45 minutes ago, big red22 said:

Not to mention when we played Minnesota they were 8-1.  They were a top 10 team and at full strength with wins over Providence and Alabama. 

 

There is way to much computers can't do, and people add that into account... the selection committee will do just that.  They will also take note that St. Johns lost Lovett after playing us.  He was a huge part in their victory against us. 

 

I know you are not hating, but please take the charts, math ect... out of this.  They will give us the benefit of the doubt if we do go 12-6 in the league, because they will see those two game in a different light.  That Minnesota win in my opinion was a bigger win than Michigan

 

This is assuming that the committee has this level of detail into every team. Let's hope we have some advocates on our side who can fight for that.