KenPom 2016-2017 KenPom Rankings Thread

[hhcmatt]

Just now, 49r said:

...and this

 

Tremendous!  I always disliked having to clip and paste an image

[trickey]

This year's rating has been released. We are 87th and 12th in the league. What do you think?

 

http://kenpom.com/

[Dead Dog Alley]

2 hours ago, trickey said:

This year's rating has been released. We are 87th and 12th in the league. What do you think?

 

http://kenpom.com/

By my count, there are 7 games vs top 20 competition, 13 games vs top 40 competition, 20 games against higher ranked teams.

[aphilso1]

11 hours ago, trickey said:

This year's rating has been released. We are 87th and 12th in the league. What do you think?

 

http://kenpom.com/

Very interesting.  I'm pleasantly surprised to see us at 87, as I really thought the loss of White and Shields would drop us to around the 120+ range.  Doing some rough math on the Adjusted O and D measures compared to last year, we are expected to score 7.5 fewer points per 100 possessions, and to concede 5 fewer points per 100.  So let's get speculative: 

-The 7.5 drop to AdjO sounds about right.  We lose our two best scorers plus a player who, when on the floor, hurt us offensively.  So two huge negatives plus a positive in terms of how you'd expect our offense to perform this year compared to last.  Couple that with some incremental improvements, especially from our group of sophomores, and an overall drop of 7 or 8 points per 100 possessions sounds about right to me.

-I always felt like Shields held his own on the defensive end of the floor, and Benny was a good pest on the opposing PG.  I have to think losing those two guys should hurt our AdjD pretty substantially.  Incremental improvements from returning players shouldn't be nearly enough to offset those two personnel losses, IMO.  So unless I'm missing something, that means that we're getting a pretty hefty bump in our AdjD because we lost AWIII.  And by hefty, I'm guessing 6 or 7 points per 100.  Interesting; but, upon further thought, not entirely unexpected.

[aphilso1]

Just now, aphilso1 said:

Very interesting.  I'm pleasantly surprised to see us at 87, as I really thought the loss of White and Shields would drop us to around the 120+ range.  Doing some rough math on the Adjusted O and D measures compared to last year, we are expected to score 7.5 fewer points per 100 possessions, and to concede 5 fewer points per 100.  So let's get speculative: 

-The 7.5 drop to AdjO sounds about right.  We lose our two best scorers plus a player who, when on the floor, hurt us offensively.  So two huge negatives plus a positive in terms of how you'd expect our offense to perform this year compared to last.  Couple that with some incremental improvements, especially from our group of sophomores, and an overall drop of 7 or 8 points per 100 possessions sounds about right to me.

-I always felt like Shields held his own on the defensive end of the floor, and Benny was a good pest on the opposing PG.  I have to think losing those two guys should hurt our AdjD pretty substantially.  Incremental improvements from returning players shouldn't be nearly enough to offset those two personnel losses, IMO.  So unless I'm missing something, that means that we're getting a pretty hefty bump in our AdjD because we lost AWIII.  And by hefty, I'm guessing 6 or 7 points per 100.  Interesting; but, upon further thought, not entirely unexpected.

Also, my icon looks stupid now thanks to the round vs. square design.  But otherwise, cool new site.

[49r]

2017 Schedule 

 

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Sun Nov 13		237	Sacramento St.	W, 75-63	69	87%	Home
Tue Nov 15		NR	ary	W		100%	Home
Sat Nov 19		169	Louisiana Tech	W, 75-66	72	79%	Home
Thu Nov 24		37	Dayton	L, 71-65	69	30%	Neutral
Wed Nov 30		23	Clemson	L, 71-60	66	16%	Away
Sat Dec 3		274	South Dakota	W, 77-63	70	90%	Home
Wed Dec 7		32	Creighton	L, 72-69	70	40%	Home
Sat Dec 10		3	Kansas	L, 78-61	70	6%	Away
Sun Dec 18		254	Gardner Webb	W, 75-62	70	89%	Home
Tue Dec 20		282	Southern	W, 74-60	69	91%	Home
Wed Dec 28		16	Indiana	L, 77-65	69	13%	Away		×
Sun Jan 1		48	Maryland	L, 73-64	69	21%	Away		×
Thu Jan 5		55	Iowa	L, 70-69	69	47%	Home		×
Sun Jan 8		61	Northwestern	W, 66-65	66	55%	Home		×
Sat Jan 14		31	Michigan	L, 73-62	67	18%	Away		×
Wed Jan 18		13	Ohio St.	L, 70-65	69	32%	Home		×
Sat Jan 21		191	Rutgers	W, 69-67	68	57%	Away		×
Thu Jan 26		61	Northwestern	L, 68-62	66	29%	Away		×
Sun Jan 29		15	Purdue	L, 71-66	69	32%	Home		×
Thu Feb 2		14	Michigan St.	L, 71-66	68	33%	Home		×
Sun Feb 5		55	Iowa	L, 74-66	69	23%	Away		×
Thu Feb 9		8	Wisconsin	L, 70-62	66	25%	Home		×
Tue Feb 14		98	Penn St.	W, 68-64	68	66%	Home		×
Sat Feb 18		13	Ohio St.	L, 74-61	69	13%	Away		×
Thu Feb 23		14	Michigan St.	L, 75-63	68	13%	Away		×
Sun Feb 26		70	Illinois	W, 70-68	69	58%	Home		×
Thu Mar 2		71	Minnesota	L, 72-66	70	32%	Away		×
Sun Mar 5		31	Michigan	L, 69-66	67	40%	Home		×
Projected record:								12-16	6-12
Chance of unbeaten record:								0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:								0.00%	0.03%
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.
Home games played at Pinnacle Bank Arena (15,000, 31st largest in D-I)

[49r]

How Minnesota jumped damn near 200 spots in the offseason I'll never know...

 

KenPom rankings as of 10-24-17.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

8. Wisconsin

13. Ohio State

14. Michigan State

15. Purdue

16. Indiana

31. Michigan

48. Maryland

55. Iowa 

61. Northwestern

70. Illinois

71. Minnesota

87. Nebraska

98. Penn State

191. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (0-0):

237. Sacramento State

nr. University of Mary

169. Louisiana Tech

 

---DirecTV Wooden Legacy---

37. Dayton

21. / 173. UCLA / Portland

30. / 39. / 86. / 178. Texas A&M / Virginia Tech / New Mexico / Cal State Northridge

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

23. @Clemson

 

274. South Dakota

32. Creighton

3. @Kansas

254. Gardner Webb

282. Southern

[Fullbacksympathy]

10 minutes ago, 49r said:

2017 Schedule 

 

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Sun Nov 13		237	Sacramento St.	W, 75-63	69	87%	Home
Tue Nov 15		NR	ary	W		100%	Home
Sat Nov 19		169	Louisiana Tech	W, 75-66	72	79%	Home
Thu Nov 24		37	Dayton	L, 71-65	69	30%	Neutral
Wed Nov 30		23	Clemson	L, 71-60	66	16%	Away
Sat Dec 3		274	South Dakota	W, 77-63	70	90%	Home
Wed Dec 7		32	Creighton	L, 72-69	70	40%	Home
Sat Dec 10		3	Kansas	L, 78-61	70	6%	Away
Sun Dec 18		254	Gardner Webb	W, 75-62	70	89%	Home
Tue Dec 20		282	Southern	W, 74-60	69	91%	Home
Wed Dec 28		16	Indiana	L, 77-65	69	13%	Away		×
Sun Jan 1		48	Maryland	L, 73-64	69	21%	Away		×
Thu Jan 5		55	Iowa	L, 70-69	69	47%	Home		×
Sun Jan 8		61	Northwestern	W, 66-65	66	55%	Home		×
Sat Jan 14		31	Michigan	L, 73-62	67	18%	Away		×
Wed Jan 18		13	Ohio St.	L, 70-65	69	32%	Home		×
Sat Jan 21		191	Rutgers	W, 69-67	68	57%	Away		×
Thu Jan 26		61	Northwestern	L, 68-62	66	29%	Away		×
Sun Jan 29		15	Purdue	L, 71-66	69	32%	Home		×
Thu Feb 2		14	Michigan St.	L, 71-66	68	33%	Home		×
Sun Feb 5		55	Iowa	L, 74-66	69	23%	Away		×
Thu Feb 9		8	Wisconsin	L, 70-62	66	25%	Home		×
Tue Feb 14		98	Penn St.	W, 68-64	68	66%	Home		×
Sat Feb 18		13	Ohio St.	L, 74-61	69	13%	Away		×
Thu Feb 23		14	Michigan St.	L, 75-63	68	13%	Away		×
Sun Feb 26		70	Illinois	W, 70-68	69	58%	Home		×
Thu Mar 2		71	Minnesota	L, 72-66	70	32%	Away		×
Sun Mar 5		31	Michigan	L, 69-66	67	40%	Home		×
Projected record:								12-16	6-12
Chance of unbeaten record:								0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:								0.00%	0.03%
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.
Home games played at Pinnacle Bank Arena (15,000, 31st largest in D-I)

Wow.  The B1G is scary good.  I think .500 in conference gets us dancing.  Hoping we can split a few of the noncon tossups.  

[49r]

Remember, in 2013-14, Nebraska started the season off in the 200's, so these early rankings aren't terribly meaningful.

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, 49r said:

How Minnesota jumped damn near 200 spots in the offseason I'll never know...

 

They get credit for Grad Transfer guard Akeem Springs and new starting center Reggie Lynch after his year of redshirt. He doesn't give a ton of credit to incoming freshmen unless they're 5 star but does project transfers.

[49r]

Today is the first time I've gotten a chance to browse other teams' schedules, and wow, has anyone else seen Creighton's schedule this year?  Woof!

 

I mean, even Doc Sadler would blush at the creampuffs they have lined up in this year's non-con.

[hhcmatt]

34 minutes ago, 49r said:

Today is the first time I've gotten a chance to browse other teams' schedules, and wow, has anyone else seen Creighton's schedule this year?  Woof!

 

I mean, even Doc Sadler would blush at the creampuffs they have lined up in this year's non-con.

 

A couple of their creampuff games are a bit creampuffy but their schedule looks a lot more Miles-esque than Sadler-esque

[AuroranHusker]

Doc would have had Dunkin' Donuts & Krispy Kreme on there if they'd let him!

[Cowboy Kermit]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

Today is the first time I've gotten a chance to browse other teams' schedules, and wow, has anyone else seen Creighton's schedule this year?  Woof!

 

I mean, even Doc Sadler would blush at the creampuffs they have lined up in this year's non-con.

The random date with Truman State in the middle of conference play is rather puzzling. I feel like Longwood University is more of a thats what she said joke than a strong non opponent. Rather creampuffy. 

[Cowboy Kermit]

1 minute ago, NebrasketballJake said:

The random date with Truman State in the middle of conference play is rather puzzling. I feel like Longwood University is more of a thats what she said joke than a strong non opponent. Rather creampuffy. 

Ol Greggy Mac took a page out of Doc Sadler's Creampuff Guide

[49r]

52 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

A couple of their creampuff games are a bit creampuffy but their schedule looks a lot more Miles-esque than Sadler-esque

 

Okay maybe I'm overstating it a bit but for a team that has Elite 8/Final 4 aspirations written all over it like they do I would expect them to at least TRY to challenge themselves a little bit in the non-con.  I mean, if you subtract Nebraska - which is a gimme win for them basically - they have exactly 3 top 100 KenPom teams on their non-con schedule.   And Akron is only just BARELY in the top 100.  So there will be probably two, maybe three games on their schedule that might give them trouble.

 

Their only halfway challenging opponent for them will be Wisconsin and Creighton owns Wisconsin, so if they don't go unbeaten in non-con play it'll be damn near criminal.

[AuroranHusker]

Pour some sugar on 9er, 'cuz he's on a roll!

[49r]

Optimism abounds this time of year, even for teams ranked in the 190's on KenPom:

 

Breaking Down The KenPom Preseason Ranking & Season Prediction For Rutgers Basketball - On the Banks

 

http://www.onthebanks.com/2016/10/25/13380944/breaking-down-kenpom-preseason-rankings-rutgers-basketball-steve-pikiell-big-ten-ohio-state-maryland

 

• In my humble opinion, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Nebraska are rated higher than they will actually perform this season. In fact, I think there is a chance Nebraska will be the worst team in the conference this season. For the Buckeyes, they have a lot of talent, but they need to show a lot of improvement from last season. They need a lot of things to go right in order to end up being an elite team. It’s possible, I just think their preseason ranking is very high.

[trickey]

4 hours ago, 49r said:

Optimism abounds this time of year, even for teams ranked in the 190's on KenPom:

 

Breaking Down The KenPom Preseason Ranking & Season Prediction For Rutgers Basketball - On the Banks

 

http://www.onthebanks.com/2016/10/25/13380944/breaking-down-kenpom-preseason-rankings-rutgers-basketball-steve-pikiell-big-ten-ohio-state-maryland

 

• In my humble opinion, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Nebraska are rated higher than they will actually perform this season. In fact, I think there is a chance Nebraska will be the worst team in the conference this season. For the Buckeyes, they have a lot of talent, but they need to show a lot of improvement from last season. They need a lot of things to go right in order to end up being an elite team. It’s possible, I just think their preseason ranking is very high.

 

49'er, your quote of the article after the link is a little confusing, as I first interpreted it as your thoughts. Reading the article and seeing the quote was from a Rutgers fan, gives me comfort that you have not fallen off the wagon.

Of course, I have had to drink a share of wine due to this evening's Cub woes.

Edited October 26, 2016 by trickey

[jimmykc]

The major news from this particular post is that Rutgers has a fan!

[49r]

@trickey I can see how that might confuse you, sorry about that. It was late in the day when I posted that.

[AuroranHusker]

Rutgers appears to be in a rut... grrrrz

[bleujay]

Well, two games against Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Butler during conference play should provide us with ample schedule strength, and scheduling weak noncon opponents is a fairly commonplace practice for power conference programs, so I'm not too concerned about it. Also 49r, I don't think many programs' fanbases are talking about Final Four appearances in the preseason unless you're Duke, Kansas, UK, or a returning Final Four team with a relatively intact roster. I sure know that most Creighton fans I interact with aren't saying such ludicrous things...also Wisconsin is ranked ahead of us in preseason polls. Should be a fun game, but pretty much the furthest thing from the truth to lose to a team ranked ahead of you and for the outcome to be "damn near criminal"

 

Just my two cents tho

 

inb4 49r says he was just trolling

Edited October 26, 2016 by bleujay
spelling

[huskerbaseball13]

14 minutes ago, bleujay said:

Well, two games against Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Butler during conference play should provide us with ample schedule strength, and scheduling weak noncon opponents is a fairly commonplace practice for power conference programs, so I'm not too concerned about it. Also 49r, I don't think many programs' fanbases are talking about Final Four appearances in the preseason unless you're Duke, Kansas, UK, or a returning Final Four team with a relatively intact roster. I sure know that most Creighton fans I interact with aren't saying such ludicrous things...also Wisconsin is ranked ahead of us in preseason polls. Should be a fun game, but pretty much the furthest thing from the truth to lose to a team ranked ahead of you and for the outcome to be "damn near criminal"

 

Just my two cents tho

 

inb4 49r says he was just trolling

 

It may be a moot point if Creighton goes 12-6 in the Big East but if they are in that 9-10 win range the non-conference schedule will definitely come in to play.  The NCAA committee certainly places quite a bit of value on tough non-con schedules. 

[bleujay]

Just now, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

It may be a moot point if Creighton goes 12-6 in the Big East but if they are in that 9-10 win range the non-conference schedule will definitely come in to play.  The NCAA committee certainly places quite a bit of value on tough non-con schedules. 

 

It makes more sense to play a more difficult conference schedule. Noncon is about confidence for your newcomers, plus one or maybe two big tests to properly gauge where you stand. That test is Wisconsin for us, and kinda NC state if we get to play them. Izzo and Self are scheduling nightmare noncon slates because they know what walks through the doors of their gym every October. Most other coaches can't rely on superhuman players that adjust to the game day one. If we didn't have the Wisconsin game, I would say this is a comparatively weak power conference noncon schedule.