Schedule next year: could we have a worse con record next year?

[PimpMario]

So I don't know how B1G scheduling works (so if I am wrong forgive me) but I am worried that our schedule will have less winnable games next year.

 

We won't get 2 against PSU next year.  So there is a decent chance that will be an away game.  Either way that is 1 less win.

 

The NW game will be away instead of at home.  So we may not get them.

 

Purdue has looked weak but we missed our chance to beat them at home this year.

 

I think we will be better next year but we could have a worse record.

[49r]

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/03/big-ten-basketball-schedule-protection/1#.UTT94qX1AnU

 

The men's conference slate will remain 18 games and the women's will stay at 16. Each men's program will play seven schools twice and four schools once. Each women's program will play five schools twice and six schools once. The league designates single-play opponents on a two-year basis.

[uneblinstu]

I believe the teams we only play once this year will be come home and homes next year.  That would mean four different teams will only be played once.  Also, the Big Ten was ridiculously good this year.  This season is an outlier.  While there will be a lot of young talent coming in, there are also will be many top players leaving the conference.  The conference will not be as strong as it is this year.  We went through this a few years ago when the Big 12 had a very strong year.  The level of play in the conference will ebb and flow.  

 

If the team is better next year, they'll win more games.  This league will always be tough, but it will rarely be this tough.

[PimpMario]

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/03/big-ten-basketball-schedule-protection/1#.UTT94qX1AnU

 

The men's conference slate will remain 18 games and the women's will stay at 16. Each men's program will play seven schools twice and four schools once. Each women's program will play five schools twice and six schools once. The league designates single-play opponents on a two-year basis.

 

So we will get two shots at NW and Purdue and probably lose PSU.

I hope we get to keep PSU, if that were to happen we could maybe dream of 5 or 6 wins.

[uneblinstu]

I guess.  There's a better than 50% chance PSU will land in that group, depending on how they decide those things.  Also, Purdue will probably be pretty good next year.

[49r]

I hope we get to keep PSU, if that were to happen we could maybe dream of 5 or 6 wins.

 

 

That's a relatively pessimistic outlook...

[tcp]

I believe the teams we only play once this year will be come home and homes next year.  That would mean four different teams will only be played once.  Also, the Big Ten was ridiculously good this year.  This season is an outlier.  While there will be a lot of young talent coming in, there are also will be many top players leaving the conference.  The conference will not be as strong as it is this year.  We went through this a few years ago when the Big 12 had a very strong year.  The level of play in the conference will ebb and flow.  

 

If the team is better next year, they'll win more games.  This league will always be tough, but it will rarely be this tough.

 

I wouldn't make this assumption that a lot of the good underclassmen will be leaving for the draft. I can really only think of two who would go high enough to justify taking off: Burke and Zeller. True, others could go, but the standard advice is that unless you're going in the top half of the 2d round at the latest, you stay in college to improve your position. This conference is likely to be better next year. Highly likely.

[PimpMario]

I hope we get to keep PSU, if that were to happen we could maybe dream of 5 or 6 wins.

 

 

That's a relatively pessimistic outlook...

 

Really?  Again it is hard for me to give an accurate prediction 12 months in advance when I don't know how good teams are going to be and when I don't know what our schedule will look like.

 

But lets do it:

 

 

1. PSU

2. Purdue at home

3. Northwestern at home

4. Steal a win

5. Steal a win

6. PSU again (if we get to play them)

 

Who else?  We will probably steal a win against an Iowa or Illinois and then maybe get one against a ranked team (which is usually roughly half the conference).

 

That gets us 5 or 6 wins?

 

Where am I going wrong?

 

Any more than that and we are a legitimate bubble team.

[uneblinstu]

I believe the teams we only play once this year will be come home and homes next year.  That would mean four different teams will only be played once.  Also, the Big Ten was ridiculously good this year.  This season is an outlier.  While there will be a lot of young talent coming in, there are also will be many top players leaving the conference.  The conference will not be as strong as it is this year.  We went through this a few years ago when the Big 12 had a very strong year.  The level of play in the conference will ebb and flow.  

 

If the team is better next year, they'll win more games.  This league will always be tough, but it will rarely be this tough.

 

I wouldn't make this assumption that a lot of the good underclassmen will be leaving for the draft. I can really only think of two who would go high enough to justify taking off: Burke and Zeller. True, others could go, but the standard advice is that unless you're going in the top half of the 2d round at the latest, you stay in college to improve your position. This conference is likely to be better next year. Highly likely.

I did a quick look at rosters and I see four I'd almost guarantee will go pro, Oladipo, Zeller, Burke and Thomas, and two others that wouldn't surprise me, Hollins and Hardaway.  

 

Also, the list of playes leaving due to graduation is deep: Paul, Richardson, Griffey, Hulls, Watford, Nix, Mbakwe, Williams, Talley, Ubel, Crawford, Swopshire, Byrd, Evans, Bruzewitz and Berggeren.  

 

I know a lot of teams will be loading up with highly rated talent, but not all of these players will have guys ready to just step in and take over.  I'm sure the conference will be very good next year, but it won't be as good as it is this year.

 

Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin are going to have some massive shoes to fill next year.

 

Also, two names that I thought were seniors and aren't: Craft and Marble.   

[tcp]

 

I believe the teams we only play once this year will be come home and homes next year.  That would mean four different teams will only be played once.  Also, the Big Ten was ridiculously good this year.  This season is an outlier.  While there will be a lot of young talent coming in, there are also will be many top players leaving the conference.  The conference will not be as strong as it is this year.  We went through this a few years ago when the Big 12 had a very strong year.  The level of play in the conference will ebb and flow.  

 

If the team is better next year, they'll win more games.  This league will always be tough, but it will rarely be this tough.

 

I wouldn't make this assumption that a lot of the good underclassmen will be leaving for the draft. I can really only think of two who would go high enough to justify taking off: Burke and Zeller. True, others could go, but the standard advice is that unless you're going in the top half of the 2d round at the latest, you stay in college to improve your position. This conference is likely to be better next year. Highly likely.

I did a quick look at rosters and I see four I'd almost guarantee will go pro, Oladipo, Zeller, Burke and Thomas, and two others that wouldn't surprise me, Hollins and Hardaway.  

 

Also, the list of playes leaving due to graduation is deep: Paul, Richardson, Griffey, Hulls, Watford, Nix, Mbakwe, Williams, Talley, Ubel, Crawford, Swopshire, Byrd, Evans, Bruzewitz and Berggeren.  

 

I know a lot of teams will be loading up with highly rated talent, but not all of these players will have guys ready to just step in and take over.  I'm sure the conference will be very good next year, but it won't be as good as it is this year.

 

Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin are going to have some massive shoes to fill next year.

 

Also, two names that I thought were seniors and aren't: Craft and Marble.   

 

Good list. I checked into Bleacher Report (I know, suspect there) for fun to see their first 32 picks. They had 5 players in the B1G going, but two were pretty suspect first rounders.

 

I can see Oladipo going as a lower first rounder as I think about it. Zeller and him going will probably pop Indiana some. Minny's woes come down to Hollins going. If he returns, they actually improve. BR has him going mid first round. I think that's way too high. He's an iffy call. Marble's not going, unless he's stupid. BR also had Robinson going out early, which I thought was drug induced.

 

MIchigan and Illinois and, if Oladipo goes, Indiana will take the hardest hits. UM and IU both have good incoming classes which should make up for quite a bit of the loss and young guys being a year better. Illinois is still the only near certain casualty I can see.

 

But look who's probably going to get better. Iowa, PSU, Purdue, OSU, and I think MSU will be better next year. Minny even or slight drop; same as Indiana. Michigan might actually improve with 3 really good younger players returning in spite of losing Burke, but worst case is that they won't drop by much if at all. Wiscy is a tough call, because they lose their bigs. But they have really young guards who are actually a big reason they're playing better now, and they'll be back, and with Dekker a year better (and he's better than both Berg and Bozo), Wiscy has a really good shot at being better next season.

 

I gotta tell you, if I had to bet on B1G being a bit better or a bit worse next season, I still go with being a bit better. Too many teams should improve, and a handful should be quite a bit better. I'm hoping we're one of those.

[uneblinstu]

I hear you, but there are too many difference makers leaving teams to expect true freshmen to come in and replace them all.  We're talking about national player of the year caliber kids leaving.  Most true freshmen aren't near that level when they step on campus, even the best ones.  So, unless we're talking about a couple of Durant level guys, I can't see that being enough to raise the level of the whole league.  I know Michigan has talent, but Burke is what makes them go.  Can't see the being better without him next year, at least not right away.

[TheKamdyMan]

the guys at draft express are the BEST talent evaluators in the game right now and they have Zeller, Burke, and oladipo in the first round.  They said Thomas would be a second rounder.  Otherwise there isnt any other underclassmen in their mock draft for this year.  I would bet the first 3 go and Thomas only if he is desperate for the chance to make a roster.  Its hard to chance that though as you dont get a guarantee in the second round.

[tcp]

the guys at draft express are the BEST talent evaluators in the game right now and they have Zeller, Burke, and oladipo in the first round.  They said Thomas would be a second rounder.  Otherwise there isnt any other underclassmen in their mock draft for this year.  I would bet the first 3 go and Thomas only if he is desperate for the chance to make a roster.  Its hard to chance that though as you dont get a guarantee in the second round.

 

 

This sounds like a much better mock and I think the most realistic. As for Uneblinstu's comment above, I would argue that I'm not asking the freshmen to replace departing talent. I'm expecting returning talent to more than do that. The freshmen replace them.

[uneblinstu]

Ok, then.  Who's going to replace what Trey Burke does for Michigan, for example?

[tcp]

Ok, then.  Who's going to replace what Trey Burke does for Michigan, for example?

some combination of robinson, stauskas and hardaway.

those guys likely return.

that's serious returning firepower.

 

I do get your point, I just think the tendency every season is to assume that the departure of a star or a high end player spells doom. Look at OSU this season. Still pretty darned good because their returning talent go better, to. A dropoff, true--and that was a bigger loss than almost any team not named Indiana is going to have this season.

 

We've had 6 teams consistently ranked this season, and most of them pretty high. I wouldn't be surprised to see the B1G approach Big East levels of ranking volume next season, with 7 or even 8 teams getting top 25 love.

[uneblinstu]

I get that, but this is as good as the conference has ever been.  Is it possible it gets better, sure, but it's not likely.  This is the high water mark.

[tcp]

I get that, but this is as good as the conference has ever been.  Is it possible it gets better, sure, but it's not likely.  This is the high water mark.

 

We shall see! Hopefully we get into the fray ourselves in a couple of years. But man, did we pick a nutty time to switch in hoops.

[uneblinstu]

I wonder if I'd have appreciated it as much if we were still in the Big 12, because, frankly, I'm not sure I've ever enjoyed watching a conference play as much as I have the Big Ten this year.  It's broken a lot of stereotypes for the conference the past couple of decades.

[hhcmatt]

Penn State only loses Nick Colella and gets back Tim Frazier.

Including their win over Michigan, they had 9 of their conference games decided by less than 10 points.

 

If we play Penn State twice next year there is a decent chance we will lose to them twice.

[Silverbacked1]

I think that Coach Miles will know just how to schedule us next year.

 

Once again it will be a wild ride.

 

But first, we close the BOB.

[uneblinstu]

I've heard rumors of an ACC team that made a lot of sense.

[Handy Johnson]

Hear me NOW and believe me later. We win 10 games in Conference and put our dancin' shoes back on. You're splitting hairs discussing wins over the dregs of the league. WE will become the opponent people fear, not vice versa.

[Hooper]

Hear me NOW and believe me later. We win 10 games in Conference and put our dancin' shoes back on. You're splitting hairs discussing wins over the dregs of the league. WE will become the opponent people fear, not vice versa.

 

Tim Miles remarked to a few boosters recently that he's concerned about fan expectations for next season being unrealistic. Losing Ubel and Talley will really hurt, we have no big men who can really play a traditional 4 or 5 role, and we have a ton of young, inexperienced players coming in. 

 

The staff definitely believes that it's possible that we actually could have a worse record next season than we do this season.

 

Optimism can be fun, but it's very difficult for me, at least, to fathom a scenario in which Nebraska wins 10 B1G games next year. There's just no logical basis I can see for such a prediction.

[hskr4life]

Hear me NOW and believe me later. We win 10 games in Conference and put our dancin' shoes back on. You're splitting hairs discussing wins over the dregs of the league. WE will become the opponent people fear, not vice versa.

 

Tim Miles remarked to a few boosters recently that he's concerned about fan expectations for next season being unrealistic. Losing Ubel and Talley will really hurt, we have no big men who can really play a traditional 4 or 5 role, and we have a ton of young, inexperienced players coming in. 

 

The staff definitely believes that it's possible that we actually could have a worse record next season than we do this season.

 

Optimism can be fun, but it's very difficult for me, at least, to fathom a scenario in which Nebraska wins 10 B1G games next year. There's just no logical basis I can see for such a prediction.

 

I find it hard to believe that a staff that believed they could win 8 games this year, fears that we will be worse next year.  May I ask where you got that info?

[Hooper]

 

Hear me NOW and believe me later. We win 10 games in Conference and put our dancin' shoes back on. You're splitting hairs discussing wins over the dregs of the league. WE will become the opponent people fear, not vice versa.

 

Tim Miles remarked to a few boosters recently that he's concerned about fan expectations for next season being unrealistic. Losing Ubel and Talley will really hurt, we have no big men who can really play a traditional 4 or 5 role, and we have a ton of young, inexperienced players coming in. 

 

The staff definitely believes that it's possible that we actually could have a worse record next season than we do this season.

 

Optimism can be fun, but it's very difficult for me, at least, to fathom a scenario in which Nebraska wins 10 B1G games next year. There's just no logical basis I can see for such a prediction.

 

I find it hard to believe that a staff that believed they could win 8 games this year, fears that we will be worse next year.  May I ask where you got that info?

 

I'd rather not say where I got it, but the main gist of what was said was that fans should be realistic in their expectations given that we lose the team's leading scorer as well as the team's only true post players. Half of next year's scholarship roster will never have played in a B1G game before. There's only one scholarship senior on next year's team, and only two juniors, one of whom is a JUCO transfer who's only played in an exhibition game. It's going to be an extremely young team made up of mostly freshmen and sophomores.

 

Next season is a huge wildcard. No one here really knows quite what to expect. How could we with so many new variables in the mix? I'm not saying the staff has a doom and gloom view toward next season, because that's not at all what I've heard -- just that they do have a bit of trepidation about how things will come together next year with so many new young faces in the mix and the team's only two real post players having departed.