Games Of Note/Bubble Watch 2024

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

11 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

My guess to what Lunardi is implying is that there is a decent gap between the teams in his "Last Four Byes" versus the teams in his "Last Four In" and "First Four Out".  In the unlikely event we lose tonight, I would be very surprised if we dropped out of the "Last Four Byes" in his next update based off my interpretation of what he is saying.  

I think I agree with you, but there is one other view that I can see as well.

 

When you look at A&M’s entire body of work, they’ve done extremely well in the Q1 games and very poorly in Q3. Adding another Q3 loss doesn’t really change the committee’s view of them all that much. Is the difference between four Q3 losses vs five worth all that much? They’re being selected for their ability to beat great teams. Their poor performance in Q3 was already baked into the cake before last night.

 

Whereas for Nebraska, the committee might be monitoring our poor road performance, thinking if we go 0-10 in the league they’ll have a hard time putting us in. They know we have three chances left, so each opportunity missed represents a big leap toward that deadly 0-10.

 

In other words, you can’t just view every game in isolation when making daily updates to the field. They all carry a different context. One type of loss may hurt one team’s resume more than the same type of loss would hurt another team’s.

Edited February 21 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[Nebrasketball1979]

5 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

I think I agree with you, but there is one other view that I can see as well.

 

When you look at A&M’s entire body of work, they’ve done extremely well in the Q1 games and very poorly in Q3. Adding another Q3 loss doesn’t really change the committee’s view of them all that much. Is the difference between four Q3 losses vs five worth all that much? They’re being selected for their ability to beat great teams. Their poor performance in Q3 was already baked into the cake before last night.

 

Whereas for Nebraska, the committee might be monitoring our poor road performance, thinking if we go 0-10 in the league they’ll have a hard time putting us in. They know we have three chances left, so each opportunity missed represents a big leap toward that deadly 0-10.

 

In other words, you can’t just view every game in isolation when making daily updates to the field. They all carry a different context. One type of loss may hurt one team’s resume more than the same type of loss would hurt another team’s.

 

Yeah, if we go 10-0 at home and 0-10 on the road, I would think at best we are being slotted into Dayton.  That's a quandary I am not expecting or hoping we don't put the committee in.  That also means we would lose our final game of the year at Michigan and that would just be a brutal loss to take for the optics and narrative alone.  We would get a lot of negative national bubble talk attention which would obviously not be good.

[hskr4life]

There’s a huge component that we don’t have a lot of info on as well.  Neutral site games.  We didn’t play in an early season neutral site tournament this year.  In our sole neutral site game, we beat the brakes off of the worst team in the worst P5 conference so there isn’t much to go off of.  We’re undefeated away from home against teams not in the B1G.

 

We very much control our own destiny.  Win 4 of these next 5 and we’re in. However, there could arise a situation where we need to perform well in the B1G tournament first game we play.

[HuskerFever]

1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

However, there could arise a situation where we need to perform well in the B1G tournament first game we play.

 

Depending on what our first game is, we may not be playing an opponent that helps our resume at all. Quite possibly one of the worst four teams in the league. So I'd much rather take control of our regular season than deal with what we're handed in the tournament.

[hskr4life]

30 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Depending on what our first game is, we may not be playing an opponent that helps our resume at all. Quite possibly one of the worst four teams in the league. So I'd much rather take control of our regular season than deal with what we're handed in the tournament.

Agreed— it’d be more for a reason to put us out than put us in though.  
 

I also have seen a lot of bracketologists say that the later in the conference tournament you get the less the committee is watching in terms of who is in and out.  So that first game may be a “enough to get into Dayton” if it came to it… mostly because we didn’t lose vs won.

 

Lets hope we just take care of business and its a moot point.

[AuroranHusker]

43 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

There’s a huge component that we don’t have a lot of info on as well.  Neutral site games.  We didn’t play in an early season neutral site tournament this year.  In our sole neutral site game, we beat the brakes off of the worst team in the worst P5 conference so there isn’t much to go off of.  We’re undefeated away from home against teams not in the B1G.

 

We very much control our own destiny.  Win 4 of these next 5 and we’re in. However, there could arise a situation where we need to perform well in the B1G tournament first game we play.

 

Or, just "WIN OUT" and we're concerned with seeding and whether OMAHA is our destination. GBR

 

[tcp]

I have just performed the sacred ritual of the Tossing of the Ruffles (Plain, of course).

 

The chips say we're going. That's good enough for me. And apparently the chips. 

[AuroranHusker]

11 minutes ago, tcp said:

I have just performed the sacred ritual of the Tossing of the Ruffles (Plain, of course).

 

The chips say we're going. That's good enough for me. And apparently the chips. 

 

That procedure is illegal in 7 states. But, evidently, not where @tcp resides. Bold strategy. 

 

 

[HuskerFever]

Well, @royalfan, is it time to start finding the live feeds of the Lindenwood games now?

[royalfan]

1 minute ago, HuskerFever said:

Well, @royalfan, is it time to start finding the live feeds of the Lindenwood games now?

Yeah hell why not.  I have plenty of time during the non football portion of the year. 

[hhcmatt]

7 hours ago, tcp said:

I have just performed the sacred ritual of the Tossing of the Ruffles (Plain, of course).

 

The chips say we're going. That's good enough for me. And apparently the chips. 

 

Much appreciated 

 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

Now of course we’re hoping bubble talk isn’t relevant by Selection Sunday, but I’m going to keep monitoring it until we hit what I consider our lock target of 22 wins.

 

So with that said, just had a wild finish to the Colorado State New Mexico game. Unfortunately NM wins.

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Now of course we’re hoping bubble talk isn’t relevant by Selection Sunday, but I’m going to keep monitoring it until we hit what I consider our lock target of 22 wins.

 

So with that said, just had a wild finish to the Colorado State New Mexico game. Unfortunately NM wins.

Personally believe the MW is a mid conference who won’t do well in March… but they’ll get 6 bids I have a feeling.  At what conferences expense?  I don’t know.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, royalfan said:

Yeah hell why not.  I have plenty of time during the non football portion of the year. 

 

Don't do it. lol

 

 

[hskr4life]

Reaults (2/21/24): Huge win for the Huskers and PSU knocked off Illinois.  Miami is probably officially eliminated and Cincy needs to win out the regular season now all other bubble teams took care of business.

• Big 10 Games
  • Illinois 89 @ Penn St 90
  • Nebraska 85 @ Indiana 70
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • None
• Other Bubble Games
  • Duke 84 @ Miami 55
  • Florida 93 @ Alabama 98
  • Oklahoma St 80 @ Cincinnati 76
  • St John’s 90 @ Georgetown 85
  • South Florida 66 @ UTSA 61
  • Charlotte 52 @ Memphis 76
  • Indiana St 83 @ Valpo 64
  • Belmont 69 @ Drake 84
  • Providence 79 @ Xavier 75
  • Ole Miss 71 @ Miss St 83
  • Colorado St 66 @ New Mexico 68

Games To Watch (2/22/24): WSU and FAU are both well off the bubble (in a positive direction).  A loss by Zaga or Grand Canyon eliminates them.

• Big 10 Games
  • Rutgers @ Purdue
  • Ohio St @ Minnesota
  • Michigan @ Northwestern
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • NC A&T & Stony Brook
  • UT Martin @ Lindenwood
  • Oregon St @ Cal
  • Cal Poly @ Fullerton
• Other Bubble Games
  • SMU @ FAU
  • Grand Canyon @ Tarletan St
  • Gonzaga @ Portland
  • Washington St @ Arizona

[unl]

1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

Reaults (2/21/24): Huge win for the Huskers and PSU knocked off Illinois.  Miami is probably officially eliminated and Cincy needs to win out the regular season now all other bubble teams took care of business.

• Big 10 Games
  • Illinois 89 @ Penn St 90
  • Nebraska 85 @ Indiana 70
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • None
• Other Bubble Games
  • Duke 84 @ Miami 55
  • Florida 93 @ Alabama 98
  • Oklahoma St 80 @ Cincinnati 76
  • St John’s 90 @ Georgetown 85
  • South Florida 66 @ UTSA 61
  • Charlotte 52 @ Memphis 76
  • Indiana St 83 @ Valpo 64
  • Belmont 69 @ Drake 84
  • Providence 79 @ Xavier 75
  • Ole Miss 71 @ Miss St 83
  • Colorado St 66 @ New Mexico 68

Games To Watch (2/22/24): WSU and FAU are both well off the bubble (in a positive direction).  A loss by Zaga or Grand Canyon eliminates them.

• Big 10 Games
  • Rutgers @ Purdue
  • Ohio St @ Minnesota
  • Michigan @ Northwestern
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • NC A&T & Stony Brook
  • UT Martin @ Lindenwood
  • Oregon St @ Cal
  • Cal Poly @ Fullerton
• Other Bubble Games
  • SMU @ FAU
  • Grand Canyon @ Tarletan St
  • Gonzaga @ Portland
  • Washington St @ Arizona

How easy would it be to watch the 9-11 seeds and see if Nebraska can go from a 10 to a 9 or 9 to an 8 etc? Who cares about the bubble teams, let’s get a higher seed that isn’t a 9 or 8. 

[hskr4life]

At this point, 8-9 seeds are still bubblicious too, so a lot of flux.  I’m still including teams like FAU and Wazzu even though they are solidly in.

[hskr4life]

 

Results (2/22/24): Just another ho hum 3/3 for Big 10 home teams!  I think Purdue may have ended Rutgers chances and Minny should take over their spot on the deep bubble.  Minny has a shot.  That game on Sunday against... *checks notes*... Nebraska is HUGE for both teams. Stony Brook is on a nice run and is darn near in the Top 200.  Biggest bubble game for us was that Tarleton St win... which I think ensures that conference is a one bid league.

• Big 10 Games
  • Rutgers 68 @ Purdue 96
  • Ohio State 79 @ Minnesota 88
  • Michigan 62 @ Northwestern 76
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • NC A&T 64 @ Stony Brook 80
  • UT Martin 106 @ Lindenwood 82
  • Oregon St  73@ Cal 81
  • Cal Poly 50 @ Fullerton 68
• Other Bubble Games
  • SMU 70 @ FAU 80
  • Grand Canyon 74 @ Tarleton St 77
  • Gonzaga 86 @ Portland 65
  • Washington St 77 @ Arizona 74

Games To Watch (2/23/24): Tim could do us a real solid favor tonight.  A loss to SJSU would be bad bad for Nevada.

• Big 10 Games
  • NONE
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Iona @ Rider
  • Duquesne @ Fordham
• Other Bubble Games
  • Nevada @ San Jose St

[hskr4life]

Results (2/23/24): The fighting Timmy's were close early but couldn't get it done.  Duquesne is the most up and down A10 team out there.  Yeesh.

• Big 10 Games
  • NONE
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Iona 75 @ Rider 78
  • Duquesne 67 @ Fordham 79
• Other Bubble Games
  • Nevada 84 @ San Jose St 63

Games To Watch (2/24/24): Indiana and Penn State is probably a wash.  Maybe Indiana since we played them twice.  I would also say we want Illinois as Iowa would only be .5 games back if they win today.  Individual notes for bubble games below.  Want bolded teams to lose

• Big 10 Games
  • Indiana @ Penn State
  • Iowa @ Illinois
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • William & Mary @ Stony Brook
  • BYU @ Kansas State
  • North Dakota @ North Dakota St
  • Delaware St @ SC St
  • Alabama St @ Florida A&M
  • Little Rock @ Lindenwood
  • Oregon St @ Standford
• Other Bubble Games
  • Notre Dame @ Syracuse (Likely a nail in coffin game for cuse if they lose)
  • Washington @ Arizona (Don't want Washington with any momentum)
  • Duke @ Wake Forest (Wake has a Q1 now thanks to FL being 30, but they really need this game)
  • Boston College @ NC St (BC is a lot further out than NC St)
  • Cincinnati @ TCU (Interesting choice here.  TCU loss improves seeding, Cincy loss keeps them out)
  • South Carolina @ Ole Miss (Want SC... Ole Miss on their way out)
  • North Carolina @ Virginia (While Virg not near bubble yet, another loss improves our seeding chances)
  • Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St (Oklahoma not near bubble yet, another loss improves our seeding chances)
  • Air Force @ New Mexico (Obvious one here... a bad bad home loss would be great)
  • Grand Canyon @ ACU (I was ready to write off GC earlier this week, but another loss wouldn't hurt)
  • Va Tech @ Pitt (Need Pitt to lose again to completely knock them out)
  • Texas @ Kansas (Texas not near bubble year, another loss improves our seeding chances)
  • Drake @ Northern Iowa (Drake is right on everyone's bubbles.  They can't afford a slip up and we don't want this being a two bid conference)
  • Yale @ Columbia (I don't think this would be two bid, but a Yale loss wouldn't hurt)
  • Princeton @ Dartmouth (See Yale note)
  • Brown @ Cornell (See Yale note)
  • Oregon @ Cal (Oregon still bubbly and a loss here would be a disaster)
  • Boise St @ Wyoming (Boise probably not near bubble but improves our seeding chances)
  • Villanova @ UCONN (Can't have Nova pick up a huge road win here)
  • Texas A&M @ Tennessee (TA&M is right on the bubble line and has looked bad.  Can't have a road win here)
  • Colorado St @ UNLV (CSU not near bubble, but improves our seeding chances)
  • UIC @ Indiana St (See Drake note)
  • Butler @ Seton Hall (Ultimate bubble game, Torvak says Seton Hall)
  • Miss St @ LSU (Miss St loss improves our seeding chances)
  • Utah @ Colorado (Need Utah to continue to lose.  Pac 12 likely a 2 bid league if so)
  • Santa Clara @ Gonzaga (A loss would mean the Zags likely need the auto bid)

[jayschool]

Bart Torvik calculates that these are the biggest impact games for us (leverage % for our chances to get into the Dance):

1. Alabama at Kentucky (2.9%)
2. Villanova at Connecticut (2.4%)
3. Cincinnati at TCU (2.3%)*
4. West Virginia at Iowa State (2.3%)
5. Grand Canyon at Abilene Christian (1.9%)*

*A win by the bolded team hurts our ranking, but hurts the other bubble team more.

[millerhusker]

Big opportunity for k-state to move back into the top 75 today 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

52 minutes ago, jayschool said:

Bart Torvik calculates that these are the biggest impact games for us (leverage % for our chances to get into the Dance):

1. Alabama at Kentucky (2.9%)
2. Villanova at Connecticut (2.4%)
3. Cincinnati at TCU (2.3%)*
4. West Virginia at Iowa State (2.3%)
5. Grand Canyon at Abilene Christian (1.9%)*

*A win by the bolded team hurts our ranking, but hurts the other bubble team more.

I’ve lost all faith in his leverage metrics. There’s just no way a Kentucky loss is more important than any game. I struggle to see why it even matters at all. Iowa State West Va doesn’t matter. Vermont vs Bryant? What?

 

I think this is a case of diving too deep into numbers, like how games slightly impact other teams’ SOS rankings for example. I doubt his algorithm accounts for the value of Kansas State jumping into Q1, which IMO makes their game against BYU today the most important game of the day for us. 

Edited February 24 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

51 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Big opportunity for k-state to move back into the top 75 today 

Yep. NET severely overrates BYU, which means KSU should get a nice boost if they win. Rooting for that team the last two weeks has taken years off my life. Yet Q1 is still there for the taking.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, jayschool said:

Bart Torvik calculates that these are the biggest impact games for us (leverage % for our chances to get into the Dance):

1. Alabama at Kentucky (2.9%)
2. Villanova at Connecticut (2.4%)
3. Cincinnati at TCU (2.3%)*
4. West Virginia at Iowa State (2.3%)
5. Grand Canyon at Abilene Christian (1.9%)*

*A win by the bolded team hurts our ranking, but hurts the other bubble team more.

 

How does that last line fit in with the percentages given... it doesn't make sense, especially when K-St. winning over BYU is the biggest factor to NU gaining another Q1 victory. But, alas, the numbers.

 

Edited February 24 by AuroranHusker

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

Sooo Hunter Sallis is really freaking good.