Jump to content

2025 B1G Tourney Projection

throwback

By throwback
in The Haymarket Hardwood

 Share

Recommended Posts

throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted (edited)

Playing with the bracket projector a little bit - we're probably going to have to go at least 3-1 down the stretch to have a shot to get into the top 9 and get that first-day bye. And we probably have to win at Ohio State or hope they get swept on their LA roadie - we lose most of the tie-breakers to them if we lose the rematch and we're both at 10-10.

 

However, if we beat OSU but only go 1-2 in the other 3 games, we could still get to #9 at 9-11 because then we win the tie-breakers against Ohio St. 

 

For our hopes of getting a day 1 bye, that OSU game looks like the big one.

 

  • If we go 4-0, good chance at #7 seed - could get to #6 with a miracle or two.
  • If we go 2-2 with wins vs Iowegia and Minny - likely would be the #10 seed
  • If worst case scenario happens, we could still miss the tourney.

 

https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

Edited by throwback
throwback

throwback

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

After Friday's games - if chalk holds in the other games from here (which of course won't happen):

 

NU goes 0-4

  • Misses B1G tournament

NU goes 1-3

  • Win vs Iowa or OSU or Mich: #12 seed vs Rutgers Wednesday; Michigan Thursday
  • Win vs Minny: #12 seed vs Iowa Wednesday; Michigan Thursday

NU goes 2-2

  • Wins vs Iowa/OSU or Minny/OSU or Mich/OSU: #9 seed BYE Wednesday; Oregon Thursday
  • Wins vs Iowa/Minny or Iowa/Mich: #10 seed vs Minny Wednesday; Illinois Thursday
  • Wins vs Mich/Minny: #10 seed vs NW Wednesday; Illinois Thursday

NU goes 3-1

  • Loss vs Mich or Minny or Iowa: #9 seed BYE Wednesday; Oregon Thursday
  • Loss vs OSU: #10 seed vs Minny Wednesday; Illinois Thursday

NU goes 4-0

  • #7 seed BYE Wednesday; OSU-Minny winner Thursday

 

If chalk holds, top 4 seeds would be:

  • 1-Wiscy
  • 2-Maryland
  • 3-MSU
  • 4-Purdue

 

Edited by throwback
throwback

throwback

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

After Monday's games and if chalk holds from here (chalk according to the bracket generator), not much change from previously:

 

NU goes 3-0

#9 seed - Wed BYE; Thur v Illinois

 

*We could still get to #8 seed if we go 3-0 and Illinois loses one game to Iowa/Mich/Pur; could still get to #7 seed if we go 3-0, Illinois loses one, and Oregon loses two of USC/Wash/Indiana

 

NU goes 2-1

  • Wins vs OSU/Minn or OSU/Iowa - #9 seed - Wed BYE; Thur vs Illinois
  • Wins vs Iowa/Minn - #10 seed - Wed vs Minn; Thur vs Oregon

 

*If we go 2-1 and lose to OSU, we could still get to the #9 seed if OSU loses to USC and beats Indiana. With NU/OSU/IU at 9-11, we win the tiebreaker for 9th. (Indiana would also have to go 2-1 in its other 3 remaining games vs PSU/Wash/Ore - we need it to be a three-way tiebreaker. And we need Rutgers to stay out of the tiebreaker, so they have to go 1-2 vs Minn/Pur/MIch. And we'd need USC to lose to Oregon to keep them out of the tiebreaker.)

 

NU goes 1-2

#12 seed - Wed vs NW; Thur vs Mich

 

NU goes 0-3

Misses tourney

 

If chalk holds, double byes go to:

1-Maryland

2-Wisc

3-MSU

4-Purdue

 

Of course, there's no way chalk holds from here - at least as the generator selects chalk. Some of the generator's "favorites" are a little suspect based on how teams are playing now.

 

We definitely could use Ohio St to lose at USC tomorrow to help our seeding chances of getting to #9. 

 

Edited by throwback
throwback

throwback

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Welp.

 

If we go 2-0 from here and Indiana loses to both Oregon and Ohio St, we can still get to #9 seed. Otherwise, we're playing on Wednesday ... hopefully.

 

Go 0-2 and we can still miss the B1G tourney ... and the chances are pretty high that we will. Most of those teams toward the bottom have multi-team tiebreakers over us. That loss today was a killer.

 

In fact, even if we beat OSU, we won't be guaranteed a spot in the B1G tourney immediately.  We might have to wait to see some other results later in the week. Because of how poorly we fare in the multi-team tiebreakers against the lower teams, we still might need to beat Iowa to make the tourney.

 

So we have to beat OSU to keep alive any hope of getting a day one bye. But we may have to beat Iowa to make sure we're in the tourney at all.

 

For the games Sunday thru Tuesday, the games that really affect us are Indiana at Oregon and UCLA at NW.

  • If we beat OSU and NW loses to UCLA, that won't quite clinch a spot in the B1G tourney, but we'll be in pretty good shape barring 3 or 4 major upsets in other games down the stretch.
  • If we beat OSU and Indiana loses to Oregon, that still keeps alive for the #9 seed.
  • If we lose to OSU, it very likely will take a win over Iowa to make the B1G tourney.
  • We might sneak in as the #15 seed by going 0-2 if USC loses its last two games (home v Wash / at UCLA); otherwise 0-2 almost certainly leaves us out.

 

More great news on a shit sandwich of a day.

 

Edited by throwback
throwback

throwback

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I'm not punishing myself by staying up late to watch it, but if Washington can beat USC tonight, we still have a shot to make the B1G tourney regardless of what happens Sunday. If USC wins tonight, Sunday's NU-Iowa game probably becomes a play-in game for the B1G tourney.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, throwback said:

I'm not punishing myself by staying up late to watch it, but if Washington can beat USC tonight, we still have a shot to make the B1G tourney regardless of what happens Sunday. If USC wins tonight, Sunday's NU-Iowa game probably becomes a play-in game for the B1G tourney.

 

If only we could frame this post and slap it on the message board back on November 4, 2024...

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

For what it's worth...I believe the only way we make the BTT with a loss is with a USC road win over UCLA and a Minnesota road win over Rutgers.  Neither of those outcomes are likely so it's best we just take care of business!

 

To be specific, all three would need to win: USC, Maryland, and Minnesota.

throwback

throwback

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Four games today, 2 of which directly affect our seeding chances: PSU at Wis / NW at Mary / OSU at Ind / USC at UCLA

  • Must have USC and Maryland win today to keep us alive regardless of how tomorrow goes.
  • If either UCLA or NW win today, we have to beat Iowa tomorrow.
  • If UCLA wins, we'll either be the #12 seed or out.
  • If USC wins, we could be #13 or #14 with a win v Iowa.
  • If we beat Iowa, we're likely in the #12/#13 game, and #5 Purdue would be the most likely Thursday opponent. #4 Wisconsin would be the most likely Friday opponent.

image.png

 

Win vs Iowa 

#12 seed

  • UCLA/Mary or NW/Rutg win - v #13 NW
  • UCLA/Mary/Minn win - v #13 Rutg
  • UCLA/NW/Minn win - v #13 NW

#13 seed

  • USC/Mary/Rutg or Minn win - v #12 USC
  • USC/NW/Rutg win - v #12 USC

#14 seed

  • USC/NW/Minn win - v #11 NW

 

Loss vs Iowa

OUT

  • UCLA/Mary or NW/Rutg or Minn win
  • USC/NW/Minn win
  • USC/Mary or NW/Rutg win

#15 seed

  • USC/Mary/Minn win - v #10 Indiana-OSU loser

image.png

 

Edited by throwback
Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

Posted
Posted

Presuming we do what we need to do tomorrow, our most likely path is first round against Northwestern and second round against Purdue.  From a NET perspective, this is a great draw.  Northwestern is actually a few spots above us and a win would be a Q2A win.  Purdue, who has lost 5 of 7, is still #15 in Net and this would be a Q1A opportunity.  Beat Iowa and the path is in front of us to win 2 and sneak back in.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Presuming we do what we need to do tomorrow, our most likely path is first round against Northwestern and second round against Purdue.  From a NET perspective, this is a great draw.  Northwestern is actually a few spots above us and a win would be a Q2A win.  Purdue, who has lost 5 of 7, is still #15 in Net and this would be a Q1A opportunity.  Beat Iowa and the path is in front of us to win 2 and sneak back in.

 

I'm not so sure our fault is in the ability to pick up Q2 wins. May take nearly running the table to make up for some bad days.

 

Take a look at these two resumes:

 

Resume 1: Q1 5-10, Q2 4-1, Q3 2-2, Q4 6-0

Resume 2: Q1 4-10, Q2 4-1, Q3 3-0, Q4 8-0

 

Resume 1's NET is 25 spots worse than Resume 2.

 

What's killing us is not Q1/Q2 wins, it's the bad losses.

Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I'm not so sure our fault is in the ability to pick up Q2 wins. May take nearly running the table to make up for some bad days.

 

Take a look at these two resumes:

 

Resume 1: Q1 5-10, Q2 4-1, Q3 2-2, Q4 6-0

Resume 2: Q1 4-10, Q2 4-1, Q3 3-0, Q4 8-0

 

Resume 1's NET is 25 spots worse than Resume 2.

 

What's killing us is not Q1/Q2 wins, it's the bad losses.

It depends on what the committee values.  Look at North Carolina, Xavier and SMU.  We have more Q1 wins than those three fellow bubble teams combined.  I think Oklahoma only has 1 true road win and no power conference team has made the tournament with less than 2.  Ouw wins at Creighton and Oregon are bubble gold.  So what's valued?

 

Three more wins, which would be likely two Q2 and one Q1A likely gets the job done.  These wins would also boost our resume metrics and help lesson some of the impact of the bad losses.

Edited by Nebrasketball1979
hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I'm not so sure our fault is in the ability to pick up Q2 wins. May take nearly running the table to make up for some bad days.

 

Take a look at these two resumes:

 

Resume 1: Q1 5-10, Q2 4-1, Q3 2-2, Q4 6-0

Resume 2: Q1 4-10, Q2 4-1, Q3 3-0, Q4 8-0

 

Resume 1's NET is 25 spots worse than Resume 2.

 

What's killing us is not Q1/Q2 wins, it's the bad losses.

 

Remember that NET ranking isn't on team sheets that the committee uses. NET is used as a sorting tool. So it's more important what your opponents NET is rather than your own NET. At the end of the day, winning two likely gets us on the screen on Selection Sunday. Now whether that is in the bracket or the "first four out" graphic is anyone's guess.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Remember that NET ranking isn't on team sheets that the committee uses. NET is used as a sorting tool. So it's more important what your opponents NET is rather than your own NET. At the end of the day, winning two likely gets us on the screen on Selection Sunday. Now whether that is in the bracket or the "first four out" graphic is anyone's guess.

 

Agreed with all the above. Was just highlighting how stark a difference a resume can be.

 

But if there's one thing my memory (hopefully holding up well) has that's consistent each year by the committee... there's no such thing as a "quality loss" in Q3/4 and they show up like bright flashing red letters for the committee.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Agreed with all the above. Was just highlighting how stark a difference a resume can be.

 

But if there's one thing my memory (hopefully holding up well) has that's consistent each year by the committee... there's no such thing as a "quality loss" in Q3/4 and they show up like bright flashing red letters for the committee.


100% big Rutgers and USC fans right now. USC is fairly safe as long as they don’t get blown out. Rutgers needs a sizable win but they are only 4 spots out of being a Q2 again.

 

UCF, Bradly, George Mason, Nevada, and K-State ahead of them.

Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Presuming we do what we need to do tomorrow, our most likely path is first round against Northwestern and second round against Purdue.  From a NET perspective, this is a great draw.  Northwestern is actually a few spots above us and a win would be a Q2A win.  Purdue, who has lost 5 of 7, is still #15 in Net and this would be a Q1A opportunity.  Beat Iowa and the path is in front of us to win 2 and sneak back in.

 

Damn, someone forgot to tell Penn St. that their game at Wisconsin was meaningless for them.  I guess they will finish above .500 and maybe be in consideration for NIT/or the Crown.  They are about to shock and upset the Badgers and that is a very costly loss for Wisky.  It will likely bump them out of the top 4 and a double bye and set them up to be the #5 seed to face the winner of the #12/#13 matchup, which is likely where Nebraska is ticketed with a win.  There are still some scenarios out there that throw curves into this so probably best to not assume results at this point!!!

Edited by Nebrasketball1979
throwback

throwback

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

Damn, someone forgot to tell Penn St. that their game at Wisconsin was meaningless for them.  I guess they will finish above .500 and maybe be in consideration for NIT/or the Crown.  They are about to shock and upset the Badgers and that is a very costly loss for Wisky.  It will likely bump them out of the top 4 and a double bye and set them up to be the #5 seed to face the winner of the #12/#13 matchup, which is likely where Nebraska is ticketed with a win.  There are still some scenarios out there that throw curves into this so probably best to not assume results at this point!!!

I kind of assumed it was our job to ruin Wisconsin's senior day, but good on PSU for keeping that tradition going.

 

Edited by throwback
throwback

throwback

Posted
  • Author
Posted

With UCLA hammering USC, our path is clear with 4 games to go on Sunday - MSU-Mich / Rutg-Minn / Ore-Wash / Iowa-NU

 

MSU-Mich and Wash-Ore have no bearing on our seed or path through Friday. 

 

Wisconsin falls to the 5 seed after losing to PSU and UCLA wins the 3-way tiebreaker with Wis & Purdue for 4 / 5 / 6 seeds.

 

NU beats Iowa

And Rutgers beats Minnesota...

image.png


And Minnesota beats Rutgers...

image.png

 

NU loses to Iowa

Out

 

Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, throwback said:

With UCLA hammering USC, our path is clear with 4 games to go on Sunday - MSU-Mich / Rutg-Minn / Ore-Wash / Iowa-NU

 

MSU-Mich and Wash-Ore have no bearing on our seed or path through Friday. 

 

Wisconsin falls to the 5 seed after losing to PSU and UCLA wins the 3-way tiebreaker with Wis & Purdue for 4 / 5 / 6 seeds.

 

NU beats Iowa

And Rutgers beats Minnesota...

image.png


And Minnesota beats Rutgers...

image.png

 

NU loses to Iowa

Out

 

I personally want nothing to do with Rutgers and their two lottery picks.  Will be rooting hard for them to beat Minnesota after we dismantle Iowa

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...