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Bracketology 2024/2025

hskr4life

By hskr4life
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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GhostOfJoeMcCray
GhostOfJoeMcCray

not that there's a very realistic chance of that happening, but hypothetically that would potentially put us at 10-6 in Q1.    Here were the teams last year who had 10 or more Q1 wins:

hskr4life
hskr4life

This conversation with the wife hit me like a bus.   Me: Blabbering on about the bubble and how weak it is, but also Nebraska needing to win and everything in between.   Her: So wh

hskr4life
hskr4life

Our 6 Q1 wins put us in a tie for 11th best in the nation in terms of number of Q1 wins. There are just 18 teams with 6 or more Q1 wins. Our six wins put us in the same company as Purdue, Mississippi

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Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

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3 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

The Wake win doesn’t move the needle a ton. They are going to need a lot more than that.

Yes, same with Xavier.  They will play Marquette in the Big East tournament and that's likely a win and in for them.  Of they lose and finish something like 1-11 in Q 1 games, that will likely leave them out.  Need Duke to close out UNC.

Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

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15 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Upon further review… Xavier being 8-1 in Q2 is realllly good for them. They’ll be right there should they lose to Marquette.

9-11 in Q1 & Q2 with only one of them being a Q1 win is likely not enough.  For comparison, if we were to win our next two and lose the third, we would be 11-12 in Q1+Q2 but with 5 Q1 wins and likely slightly worse resume metrics.  However, we do have the two bad losses so again, it really depends on what the committee values, which we won't know until selection Sunday.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

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Posted

WEEKEND UPDATES:

(Red = Bad/Bad-ish for Nebraska)

 

Friday:

Bradley: vs. Murray State, 6 PM (ESPN+)

[Both teams] Colorado State: at Boise State, 9 PM (FS1)

 

Saturday:

Arkansas: vs. Mississippi State, 11 AM (SECN)

Georgia: vs. Vanderbilt, 11 AM (ESPNU)
Wake Forest: vs. Georgia Tech, 1:15 PM (CW Network)

Cincinnati: at Oklahoma State, 2 PM (ESPN+)

Liberty: at Western Kentucky, 2 PM (ESPN+)

Drake: vs. Belmont, 2:30 PM (CBSSN)

[Both teams] Ohio State: at Indiana, 2:45 PM (CBS)

SMU: at Florida State, 3 PM (ESPNU)

Utah State: vs. Air Force, 3 PM (The MW Stream)

Xavier: vs. Providence, 3 PM (FS1)

North Carolina: vs. Duke, 5:30 PM (ESPN)

[Both teams] Texas: vs. Oklahoma, 7 PM (SECN)

San Diego State: vs. Nevada, 9:30 PM (FS1)

 

Sunday:

Nebraska: vs. Iowa, 11:30 AM (FOX)

Rutgers: vs. Minnesota, 12 PM (BTN) [Rutgers win: potential shift up to Q2 loss; Loss: 3-leg parley for NU auto-BTT spot]

North Texas: at Temple, 1 PM (ESPN+)

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

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The 31 Auto-Bid Conference Tournaments:

 

Bid Stealing Opportunities:

AAC [Mar 12-16]

ACC [Mar 11-15]

Atlantic-10 [Mar 12-16]

Big 12 [Mar 11-15]

Big East [Mar 12-15]

Big Ten [Mar 12-16]

Conference USA [Mar 11-15]

Missouri Valley [Mar 6-9]: #1 Drake vs. #2 Bradley 

Mountain West [Mar 12-15]

SEC [Mar 12-16]

West Coast [Mar 6-11]: Remaining #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9

 

Not at Risk:

America East [Mar 8-15]: Remaining #1, 2, 3, 4

ASUN [Mar 2-9]: Remaining #1, 2

Big Sky [Mar 8-12]: Remaining #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9

Big South [Mar 5-9]: Remaining #1, 3

Big West [Mar 12-15]

CAA [Mar 7-11]: Remaining #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12

Horizon League [Mar 4-11]: Remaining #1, 2, 4, 6

Ivy League [Mar 15-16]

MAAC [Mar 11-15]

MAC [Mar 13-15]

MEAC [Mar 12-15]

Northeast [Mar 5-11]: Remaining #1, 3

Patriot League [Mar 4-12]: Remaining #1, 2, 3, 5

Southern [Mar 7-10]: Remaining #1, 5, 6, 7

Southland [Mar 9-12]

SWAC [Mar 11-15]

Sun Belt [Mar 4-10]: Remaining #1, 2, 3, 4

WAC [Mar 11-15]

 

Auto-Bids:

Ohio Valley: SIU Edwardsville

Summit League: Omaha

 

Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, millerhusker said:

Illinois back up to 15 in the NET, which gives us three quad 1A wins. 

Rutgers moved up 3 spots to #77. A win today would probably get them back to a quad 2 loss.

Agree completely, a win for Rutgers today and a win in their first round BTT game will get them there for sure.  Thankfully USC only dropped 4 spots to 71 after their bludgeoning by UCLA.  They just need to not lose by 30 in their first round game and that should be safe as a Q2 loss 

hskr4life

hskr4life

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1 hour ago, millerhusker said:

Why is the Mountain West so highly thought of? Why is New Mexico an 8 seed? None of those teams have more than 3 quad 1 wins and they all have 2 quad 3 losses. 


Remember last year the MW was really highly thought of by everyone except the committee. The MW got no favors from the committee come selection Sunday AND they struggled in the Dance.

 

Not that it’s apples to apples, but I’m not thinking they’ll get more than 3.

millerhusker

millerhusker

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Agree completely, a win for Rutgers today and a win in their first round BTT game will get them there for sure.  Thankfully USC only dropped 4 spots to 71 after their bludgeoning by UCLA.  They just need to not lose by 30 in their first round game and that should be safe as a Q2 loss 

Unless I’m mistaken, I think a Rutgers win today would likely put them in the 12 seed, playing us in the first round if we beat Iowa. If Rutgers loses today, we’d play northwestern in the first round. 

hskr4life

hskr4life

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Posted
3 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Unless I’m mistaken, I think a Rutgers win today would likely put them in the 12 seed, playing us in the first round if we beat Iowa. If Rutgers loses today, we’d play northwestern in the first round. 


I think it’s the other way around. A Rutgers loss would mean we play them.

hskr4life

hskr4life

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IF we win today… here is what I’m thinking.

 

North Carolina: At just 1-11 in Q1, they have had so many chances. 2 home Q1s and 3 N Q1s. Their only win is also one we boast. So I believe that we are ahead of them.

 

Texas: Say it with me, 14 losses and a likely 15th. Only 3 teams have ever been an at large with 15 losses and none in the past 5 years I believe. We also have more Q1 and Q2 wins, so I believe we are ahead of them.

 

Ohio State: Tough one as they too are now at 14 losses. I think they may be in more trouble than us.

 

Probably more, but these three came to mind.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

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Posted
14 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Really sucks that Minnesota has to be viewed as such a bad loss. They are 5-4 on the road and 7-8 in quad 1 (wow!). Only 13 teams in the country have more quad 1 wins than Minnesota. You can’t tell me that loss should count the same as New Mexico losing to San Jose St.

 

Or that Penn State, who couldn't even qualify for the conference tournament, is a Quad 1 loss for us?

 

What a wild metric.

millerhusker

millerhusker

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

IF we win today… here is what I’m thinking.

 

North Carolina: At just 1-11 in Q1, they have had so many chances. 2 home Q1s and 3 N Q1s. Their only win is also one we boast. So I believe that we are ahead of them.

 

Texas: Say it with me, 14 losses and a likely 15th. Only 3 teams have ever been an at large with 15 losses and none in the past 5 years I believe. We also have more Q1 and Q2 wins, so I believe we are ahead of them.

 

Ohio State: Tough one as they too are now at 14 losses. I think they may be in more trouble than us.

 

Probably more, but these three came to mind.

Where are we in relation to Boise State and Xavier right now?

hskr4life

hskr4life

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Posted
Just now, millerhusker said:

Where are we in relation to Boise State and Xavier right now?


Boise has just 6 Q1/2 wins overall to go with a Q3 and 4 loss. I would definitely put us above them.

 

Xavier, I feel is above us. Despite their awful Q1 record, I think they more than make up for that in Q2 with the current state of the bubble. 

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