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Floor and Ceiling: A Norm Poll

Norm Peterson

By Norm Peterson
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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What's the floor? What's the ceiling?  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. The floor for this year's team in terms of wins is ...

    • 11 or fewer
      11
    • 12
      6
    • 13
      5
    • 14
      8
    • 15
      7
    • 16
      6
    • 17 or more
      6

  2. 2. The ceiling for this year's team in terms of wins is ...

    • 16 or fewer
      0
    • 17
      3
    • 18
      2
    • 19
      4
    • 20
      6
    • 21
      14
    • 22 or more
      20

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Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
Posted

KenPom projects us going 17-14. I'm curious what you all think.

 

What's the floor for this team? What's the FEWEST number of wins you think is realistically possible (in other words, we'll win at LEAST how many)?

 

What's the ceiling? What's the MOST number of games you think they're realistically capable of winning.

 

Explain in the comments.

 

Go!

jimmykc

jimmykc

Posted
Posted

I understand your question, Norm, but when unknowns are factored in such as multiple injuries, unforeseen team chemistry problems, etc., who could not vote for the best or worst choices. I think we'll end up somewhere in the upper middle of your floor/ceiling poll.  

Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, jimmykc said:

I understand your question, Norm, but when unknowns are factored in such as multiple injuries, unforeseen team chemistry problems, etc., who could not vote for the best or worst choices. I think we'll end up somewhere in the upper middle of your floor/ceiling poll.  

 

I should have made clear barring unforeseen circumstances on the low end, and no "magical" runs that are one-off events on the other end. I mean, basically I'm asking what people think are our realistic best- and worst-case scenarios.

HuscurAdam

HuscurAdam

Posted
Posted

I’m thinking floor of 12 and ceiling of 24. A lot would have to right/wrong to hit either of those numbers, but I definitely think we are closer to the 24 than the 12.

 

This team has too much depth to finish with fewer than 12 wins. Based on the soft non-con, they should be able to hit that mark even with significant injury issues.

 

I also have a hard time envisioning more than 24 wins, even if just about everything goes right. The B1G may not have many great teams, but there aren’t *any* really bad teams; even MINN beat us when we had it rolling at the end of last year. Even if we go 10-1 in the non-con, we would have to go 14-6 to get to 24 wins and that is definitely the upper limit of I can “realistically” hope for.

jayschool

jayschool

Posted
Posted

A sampling from various pundits:

 

David Cobb, CBS Sports (Picks Huskers No. 12 in Big Ten)

Nebraska finally made strides in coach Fred Hoiberg's fourth season after winning 10 or fewer games in his first three years. The Cornhuskers finished 16-16 (9-11 Big Ten) and won six of their final eight regular season games. The reason for the late-season surge? Keisei Tominaga. The 6-2 guard averaged 20.3 points while shooting 55.7% from the floor and 43.1% from 3-point range over Nebraska's final nine games. He's back for a final season but needs needs some help after last year's No. 2 and 3 scorers departed. A deep transfer class headlined by first-team All-Missouri Valley big man Rienk Mast from Bradley and ex-Iowa guard Ahron Ulis has potential.

 

Jason Bolt, Inside the Black and Gold, Maryland (Picks Huskers No. 11)

The Nebraska Cornhuskers found themselves in the thick of things in the Big Ten for much of last season, but ultimately missed out on the big dance yet again. The losses of Derrick Walker (13.6 PPG) and Sam Griesel (12 PPG) hurt the scoring production for the Cornhuskers, but the return of Keisei Tominaga – a player who could potentially be a breakout star in the conference – is something that will provide a glimmer of hope for Nebraska fans. Tominaga had an outstanding 2022-23 campaign for Nebraska, coming essentially out of nowhere to score over 13 points per game and shoot 40% from 3-point range. The defensive attention that he will receive should open up opportunities for others to capitalize on. The transfer trio of Brice Williams, Ahron Ulis and Rienk Mast should add depth to some of the holes left by the departures, but many question marks surround the legitimacy of this squad heading into next season.

 

David Klein, Spartans Illustrated (Picks Huskers No. 13)

The most competitive team that Fred Hoiberg has had since taking the job in Lincoln, Nebraska proved pesky with wins over Creighton, Iowa twice, Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland. The flamethrower Kesei Tominaga (13.1 PPG-40% from deep on 5.2 3FGA) is back and Nebraska snagged four portal players, the best of whom is likely redshirt senior power forward Rienk Mast from Bradley (13.8 PPG & 8 RPG) or Iowa transfer Ahron Ulis, but fifth-year seniors Sam Griesel (12 PPG, 3.8 APG, 5.8 RPG) and Derrick Walker (13.6 PPG & 7.1 RPG) depart, and with it, two of Nebraska’s top-three scorers. It feels like a return to the cellar for the Cornhuskers.

 

Tristan Freeman, Fansided (Huskers No. 11)

Although the end result was yet another missed NCAA Tournament, there’s no question that the Cornhuskers took a step in the right direction this past season. Coach Fred Hoiberg also had a breakout performance season from Keisei Tominaga, who averaged 13.1 ppg on 40% shooting from three-point range and will be back for another year. But Nebraska loses arguably its two best players in forward Derrick Walker and guard Sam Griesel, along with starting guard, Emmanuel Bandoumel. At least they bring back CJ Wilcher and Juwan Gary, along with bringing in a trio of solid transfers. Rienk Mast averaged 13.8 ppg and 8.0 rpg at Bradley and is a two-time All-MVC performer. He’s set to be the replacement for Walker in the frontcourt. Josiah Allick is a bouncy and athletic forward from New Mexico, coming off averaging 8.4 ppg and 7.3 rpg. The backcourt newcomers will be key. Brice Williams averaged over 13 ppg at Charlotte and shot 40% from deep, while Ahron Ulis comes over from Iowa to be the point guard position. He has plenty of shooters to pass it to so Ulis should be able to rack up some assists next season. The question now will be whether this core is good enough to get Nebraska over the hump and out of the bottom of the conference.

 

Alex Hickey, Saturday Tradition (Huskers No. 10)

The Cornhuskers might follow in the footsteps of Rutgers and Northwestern the past 2 seasons — the team that comes out of nowhere to earn a top-4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. But given the checkered history of Nebrasketball, I’m not daring enough to actually predict that outcome. But with Keisei Tominaga back in the fold the Huskers are going to be the most fun team in the B1G to watch, win or lose.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted

Huskers check in at #75 (a few spots ahead of Iowa).  Of note- the fighting SJSU Spartans checked in at #98… simply amazing stuff to turn that program around to where it’s at.

 

“It's a big year for Fred Hoiberg, who probably will need to finish better than the 75th in the sport to be assured of holding on to his post. Hoiberg is 40-83 in four seasons and has 18 total wins in league play. Thankfully, he's got some sort of player in Keisei Tominaga, a 6-2 senior who could average north of 16 points. The Huskers had to go into the portal heavy, and due to that, a lot of questions still need to be answered with how much better this team can or will be from the group that was 149th in offensive efficiency a season ago.”

TourneyBound

TourneyBound

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Will see hiw he does without the stud Moore who he inherited. I would bet a lot of money on the over at 98.  

Ya totally agree. I’m shocked with them losing that guy still being ranked that high!

  • 4 months later...
AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

I'm actually impressed that roughly 2/3 of the people on this board who voted in this poll thought our ceiling was over 20 wins.

 

In the HHCC contest I had predicted 21 regular season wins and 11 dubs in the B1G. And that seems low right about now, especially if NU wins tonight in Columbus, OH. GBR

 

AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I gotta think if we win the next two, we're a lock regardless of what happens after that.

 

I wholeheartedly agree. But, don't get blown out as that had been the one killer earlier this season....

 

But, selfishly, I wanna WIN OUT this regular season so that a 23-or-more win NU is in Omaha as a #7 seed.

 

Edited by AuroranHusker
hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
On 10/24/2023 at 1:56 PM, hskr4life said:

Huskers check in at #75 (a few spots ahead of Iowa).  Of note- the fighting SJSU Spartans checked in at #98… simply amazing stuff to turn that program around to where it’s at.


Well.. these two teams went in completely different directions this year.  Happy to say we went the right one.

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