KenPom 2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread

[TourneyBound]

How about a KenPom schedule update??  Does it just have us losing next 2 games?

[royalfan]

this stuff is not fun discussion.  Quite a buzzkill.  As one that know the accuracy of Vegas in the long run, this hard line move Wisconsin direction is not fun either.  up to 4-4.5.  

[49r]

45 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

How about a KenPom schedule update??  Does it just have us losing next 2 games?

 

4-3 the rest of the way:

 

Sat Jan 27	63	102	Iowa	W, 98-84	70		Home	16-8	7-4
Mon Jan 29		85	Wisconsin	L, 65-63	61	45%	Away		×
Tue Feb 6		86	Minnesota	L, 73-72	69	46%	Away		×
Sat Feb 10		134	Rutgers	W, 66-57	65	79%	Home		×
Tue Feb 13		41	Maryland	W, 70-69	66	54%	Home		×
Sun Feb 18		108	Illinois	W, 71-70	69	52%	Away		×
Tue Feb 20		89	Indiana	W, 71-65	66	71%	Home		×
Sun Feb 25		54	Penn St.	W, 70-68	67	60%	Home		×
Projected record:								20-11	11-7

[TourneyBound]

4 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

4-3 the rest of the way:

 

Sat Jan 27	63	102	Iowa	W, 98-84	70		Home	16-8	7-4
Mon Jan 29		85	Wisconsin	L, 65-63	61	45%	Away		×
Tue Feb 6		86	Minnesota	L, 73-72	69	46%	Away		×
Sat Feb 10		134	Rutgers	W, 66-57	65	79%	Home		×
Tue Feb 13		41	Maryland	W, 70-69	66	54%	Home		×
Sun Feb 18		108	Illinois	W, 71-70	69	52%	Away		×
Tue Feb 20		89	Indiana	W, 71-65	66	71%	Home		×
Sun Feb 25		54	Penn St.	W, 70-68	67	60%	Home		×
Projected record:								20-11	11-7

5-2

[AuroranHusker]

16 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

4-3 the rest of the way:

 

Sat Jan 27	63	102	Iowa	W, 98-84	70		Home	16-8	7-4
Mon Jan 29		85	Wisconsin	L, 65-63	61	45%	Away		×
Tue Feb 6		86	Minnesota	L, 73-72	69	46%	Away		×
Sat Feb 10		134	Rutgers	W, 66-57	65	79%	Home		×
Tue Feb 13		41	Maryland	W, 70-69	66	54%	Home		×
Sun Feb 18		108	Illinois	W, 71-70	69	52%	Away		×
Tue Feb 20		89	Indiana	W, 71-65	66	71%	Home		×
Sun Feb 25		54	Penn St.	W, 70-68	67	60%	Home		×
Projected record:								20-11	11-7

 

The 20-11 record indicated would imply 4-3 while the projections actually show 5-2..... splitting MD & IL, I suspect.

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by AuroranHusker

[49r]

5 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

5-2

 

Maryland and Illinois are basically coin flips so the assumption is we'll split them.

[TourneyBound]

3 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

Maryland and Illinois are basically coin flips so the assumption is we'll split them.

oh okay  that makes sense

[Norm Peterson]

19 minutes ago, royalfan said:

this stuff is not fun discussion.  Quite a buzzkill.  As one that know the accuracy of Vegas in the long run, this hard line move Wisconsin direction is not fun either.  up to 4-4.5.  

 

Does that suggest the oddsmakers know something?

[cozrulz]

Have to at least split the next two road games.

[hhcmatt]

3 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Does that suggest the oddsmakers know something?

 

They know how to set those lines to keep people betting against the Huskers who currently have the best record vs the spread.(16-6)

[hskr4life]

25 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Does that suggest the oddsmakers know something?

 

Any other year I would agree.  But we’re 16-6 ATS and KenPom is not in the top 5 in the HHCC.  So I’m sticking with the #BetTheSkers for the rest of this season.  

[uneblinstu]

Lines for our games have been weird for a while now.

[aphilso1]

1 hour ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

The 20-11 record indicated would imply 4-3 while the projections actually show 5-2..... splitting MD & IL, I suspect.

 

 

 

 

No, that's not the way that works.  The way they project final record is to add up the odds for each remaining game (0.45 + 0.46 + 0.79, etc) and that total tells you how many more expected wins you have.  The math adds up to 4.07, meaning we are expected to have 4 more wins. 

 

Think about if the odds of victory were 49% for every game in an entire season.  Technically that would mean you're expected to go winless if you only look at each game in isolation.  But taken as a whole, you'd expect to win just under half of them.  Same thing.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, aphilso1 said:

 

No, that's not the way that works.  The way they project final record is to add up the odds for each remaining game (0.45 + 0.46 + 0.79, etc) and that total tells you how many more expected wins you have.  The math adds up to 4.07, meaning we are expected to have 4 more wins. 

 

Think about if the odds of victory were 49% for every game in an entire season.  Technically that would mean you're expected to go winless if you only look at each game in isolation.  But taken as a whole, you'd expect to win just under half of them.  Same thing.

 

Yeah, I'm just rationalizing since, in reality, NU can only have either 1 (win) or 0. No partial credit (see KU-NU).

Edited January 29, 2018 by AuroranHusker

[aphilso1]

10 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Yeah, I'm just rationalizing since it in reality NU can only have either 1 (win) or 0. No partial credit (see KU-NU).

 

Even so, that's still not what the formula is saying. If you're looking at where the formula is projecting one extra 1 to flip to a 0, it's from the three games in which we are significantly favored (Rutger, Indy, & PSU); our projected win total for those three games is 2.1, not 3.  That's where the extra loss is projected. 

 

The four coin-flip games come out to a wash, since we're barely dogs in two and barely favorites in the other two.  Still comes out to 2 wins in 4 games for those.

Edited January 29, 2018 by aphilso1

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, aphilso1 said:

 

Even so, that's still not what the formula is saying. If you're looking at where the formula is projecting one extra 1 to flip to a 0, it's from the three games in which we are significantly favored (Rutger, Indy, & PSU); our projected win total for those three games is 2.1, not 3.  That's where the extra loss is projected.  

 

Yeah, I realize that.... a lot of close games are projected for NU.

[aphilso1]

1 minute ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Yeah, I realize that.... a lot of close games are projected for NU.

 

Well let's just win 'em all and not worry about.  We can all agree on that!

[AuroranHusker]

4 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Well let's just win 'em all and not worry about.  We can all agree on that!

 

I wasn't disagreeing to begin with. Merely rationalizing a system in practical W/L results. So, yeah, I'm good with racking up dubs. GBR

[royalfan]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Does that suggest the oddsmakers know something?

Sharp bettors more likely.  The market has been off by a couple points all year on Nebraska, so hopefully it is again.  

[Norm Peterson]

On 1/27/2018 at 9:55 PM, Norm Peterson said:

 

I'm not going to hit the refresh button until after we beat Wisconsin.

 

I get to hit the refresh button now!

[HuskerPower #nato73]

Not Kenpom but live RPI moves us from 65 to 57.  Between Gonzaga and Maryland. 

 

And now Kenpom says 57 as well

Edited January 30, 2018 by HuskerPower #nato73

[HuskerFever]

Just now, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

Not Kenpom but live RPI moves us from 65 to 57.  Between Gonzaga and Maryland. 

 

Sure would be nice to get over that Maryland road block.

[49r]

Mon Jan 29	61	90	Wisconsin	W, 74-63	70		Away	17-8	8-4
Tue Feb 6		84	Minnesota	L, 73-72	69	48%	Away		×
Sat Feb 10		135	Rutgers	W, 67-57	66	81%	Home		×
Tue Feb 13		41	Maryland	W, 70-69	66	56%	Home		×
Sun Feb 18		106	Illinois	W, 72-70	70	55%	Away		×
Tue Feb 20		88	Indiana	W, 72-65	66	73%	Home		×
Sun Feb 25		54	Penn St.	W, 71-68	68	62%	Home		×
Projected record:								21-10	12-6

[49r]

Who had 12-6 in the preseason prediction thread?

[HuskerFever]

1 minute ago, 49r said:

Who had 12-6 in the preseason prediction thread?

 

@Vinny is the only one in the 'after the non-conference just ended' prediction.

Edited January 30, 2018 by HuskerFever