Cold water, we are +5 dogs to Penn State

[PimpMario]

EDIT: We are +4.5 to +5 dogs.

 

We actually have to go out on the floor and beat Penn State.  They aren't going to just give us the win.

 

I think we are getting way way ahead of ourselves.  This is still Nebraska basketball.

 

I think a lot of us would be served if we just took took some deep breaths and took a step back.

 

We are 9-8 and 1-4.  If we lose to Penn State we are in a dog fight to stay out of the cellar. 

 

We have a shot to beat Penn State, but even with a shot it is still more likely we lose. 

 

We are all pretty high right now but if we lose to PSU we cannot let it crater our hopes for a positive rebuilding year.  

[MichHusker]

I think a lot of us are talking in a way that makes it seem that way, but from what I've seen many have still predicted PSU to win

[uneblinstu]

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose. 

[PimpMario]

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose. 

 

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose. 

 

After reading this board the last couple of days i figured we had a really good shot to beat PSU.  I was somewhat surprised to see them favored by 5 last night.  

 

Just because we can win doesn't mean we will.  Coin flips don't always go your way.  

 

After doing some research it seems one of the reasons that our RPI is so high is because we have lost to so many good teams.

[HuskerBB]

It is a winnable game - but we are certainly not yet to the point where we can go on the road against any conference team and "expect" to win.   I think the spread is probably about what it should be.   We have a good chance to win - but if you are making neutral predictions probably more likely we would lose.   In basketball you have to have more than "a touch" more talented in order to be more likely than not to win if you are playing on the road.

[PimpMario]

It is a winnable game - but we are certainly not yet to the point where we can go on the road against any conference team and "expect" to win.   I think the spread is probably about what it should be.   We have a good chance to win - but if you are making neutral predictions probably more likely we would lose.   In basketball you have to have more than "a touch" more talented in order to be more likely than not to win if you are playing on the road.

 

I agree with most of that.

 

The other thing to consider is that if we lose we will have our second bad loss on a resume.  

[uneblinstu]

 

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose. 

 

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose. 

 

After reading this board the last couple of days i figured we had a really good shot to beat PSU.  I was somewhat surprised to see them favored by 5 last night.  

 

Just because we can win doesn't mean we will.  Coin flips don't always go your way.  

 

After doing some research it seems one of the reasons that our RPI is so high is because we have lost to so many good teams.

 

Don't disagree. I really think it's just as likely that we win as it is that we lose.

[tcp]

a coin flip game. it helps to remind yourself that while the top of the conference isn't as good as last year, the bottom is better than last year. that includes PSU, just as it does us.

 

we foul, we lose. we defend without fouling a ton early, and shoot at least 46%, we should win.

 

Just be glad we get a second game this week. I was beginning to think we only played once a week.

[ajb5856]

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose.

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose.

After reading this board the last couple of days i figured we had a really good shot to beat PSU. I was somewhat surprised to see them favored by 5 last night.

Just because we can win doesn't mean we will. Coin flips don't always go your way.

After doing some research it seems one of the reasons that our RPI is so high is because we have lost to so many good teams.

Certainly going to be a tough game. Home court is usually worth about 4 points so really it's like a 1 point spread on a neutral floor. Now, is Penn State's home court advantage really worth 4 points? It's gonna be a tough game, any road game will be tough, but I think we can do some things to neutralize their home court advantage. Coin flip might not be far off.

[nuled2dance]

Creighton was +5 vs Villanova....if that means anything

[hhcmatt]

We have a shot to beat Penn State, but even with a shot it is still more likely we lose. 

 

KenPom gives us a 43% chance of winning (Penn State 57%)

It would seem he favors us at this point by 2 points on a neutral floor and that home court advantage is worth 4 points.

That's why right now we're picked to lose by 2 on the road and picked to win by 6 at home.

 

 

I think a lot of us would be served if we just took took some deep breaths and took a step back.

 

You've got my blessing. 

[Jadler]

The stat of the game is going to be Penn State's 3 pt percentage. If they are anywhere near warm we're going to be playing keep up most of the game.

[nuled2dance]

We should matchup well here in my opinion. We struggle to defend the post. Great they don't have a post presence. No need to zone them just man up. Biggs/Benny/tai are quick enough to cause some issues and stick with shooters.

[royalfan]

 

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose. 

 

I don't really care what the line is. I think Nebraska has a touch more talent and is playing decently well right now. I think this is the most coin-flippy game we've had all year. I don't think it's more likely that we lose. 

 

After reading this board the last couple of days i figured we had a really good shot to beat PSU.  I was somewhat surprised to see them favored by 5 last night.  

 

Just because we can win doesn't mean we will.  Coin flips don't always go your way.  

 

After doing some research it seems one of the reasons that our RPI is so high is because we have lost to so many good teams.

 

 

They were not favored by 5 last night.  They were favored by 3 last night.  They have been bet up to 5.  And people betting Penn St. are not square bettors.  Large difference than opening at 3 and staying there. 

 

And people that say they don't care about the line.  That is fine and dandy.  But there is no better indicator of what is most likely to happen. 

 

We are likely to win slightly more than 1 in 3 times. 

 

Penn St. needs to shoot the ball average or worse from deep or it will be extremely tough to win.  They are a better team than record indicates.  They are better than NW and Purdue IMO.   

[49r]

Creighton was +5 vs Villanova....if that means anything

 

AND...IIRC, we were about a 4 to 5 point dog at PSU last year.  And we all know how that turned out.

 

It's not like it's impossible for us to win tonight.

[hhcmatt]

AND...IIRC, we were about a 4 to 5 point dog at PSU last year.  And we all know how that turned out.

 

[Huskerpapa]

No respect yet...we gotta go out and earn it...starting tonight.