Games Of Note/Bubble Watch 2024

[hskr4life]

53 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

Golden Gophers are suddenly on a Roll. They’ll come into Lincoln expecting to Win. Too Bad that’s NOT gonna happen  

Multiple people talking about them being a bubbly team should they continue this roll.  
 

Their resume is ugly right now both in predictive metrics, result metrics, and SOS.  That win notches their first Q1 win though and they have some

opportunities coming up.  It’d have to be a “lightning in a bottle” type of run.

 

An NIT run isn’t out of the question though.

[Vinny]

14 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Not only this but their bubbly profile would most likely be much better than ours.  The predicative metrics (KPom and BPI) love them and their result metrics are only slightly worse than ours.  Combine that with the name on the front, the legendary Izzo, and the fact that everyone knows Izzos teams over perform late… I wouldn’t want our name up there against MSU in a bubble scenario come March.

I don’t know, both teams have 13 games that are currently Q1/Q2. We’re 6-7, they’re 4-9. We have a better RPI, they have a better SOS. We won head to head, and have better top line wins over Purdue and Wisconsin vs their win over Baylor.

[Dead Dog Alley]

13 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Maryland has home shooting splits of 31/11/73 in a home loss to Rutgers tonight.

 

The strategy of muddying up the game and making it look like rugby won't work against Rutgers, that's akin to deciding to wrestle a pig in mud vs wrestling him in dry dirt.

[hskr4life]

Results (2/6/24): Overall a very interesting night of games.  In the B1G, Rutgers new player continues to look good, OSU blew an 18 point lead at home, and MSU/Minny moved each closer to the bubble though neither are close to coming in/falling out.  Bubble teams did, for the most part, what they needed to do.  

• Big 10 Games
  • Rutgers 56 @ Maryland 53
  • Indiana 76 @ Ohio St 73
  • Michigan St 56 @ Minnesota 59
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • NONE
• Other Bubble Games
  • DePaul 57 @ St. John’s 85
  • Clemson 80 @ North Carolina 76
  • Wake Forest 80 @ Georgia Tech 51
  • Iowa St 70 @ Texas 65
  • BYU 66 @ Oklahoma 82
  • Butler 62 @ UCONN 71
  • Nevada 77 @ Utah St 63
  • Boise St 62 @ Colorado St 75
  • St Mary's 84 @ Pacific 43

 

Games To Watch (2/7/24): Need the Blueturds to knock off Providence tonight. Bunch of home games for bubble teams tonight, so it would be nice for a few of them to lose and put a black eye on their resume.  Most of them aren’t playing an opponent who should give them a game.

• Big 10 Games
  • Wisconsin @ Michigan
  • Nebraska @ Northwestern
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Davidson @ Duquesne
  • Creighton @ Providence
• Other Bubble Games
  • Georgetown @ Seton Hall
  • Louisville @ Syracuse
  • Pitt @ NCST
  • Valpo @ Indiana St
  • Southern Illinois @ Drake
  • Portland @ Gonzaga
  • Texas A&M @ Mizzou
  • Georgia @ Miss St

[Dead Dog Alley]

8 minutes ago, Vinny said:

I don’t know, both teams have 13 games that are currently Q1/Q2. We’re 6-7, they’re 4-9. We have a better RPI, they have a better SOS. We won head to head, and have better top line wins over Purdue and Wisconsin vs their win over Baylor.

 

Michigan State always has the trump card vs Nebraska on getting in the tournament - their jerseys have "Michigan State" written on them.

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

Clemson 80 @ North Carolina 76

 

Would have been helpful if Clemson lost that one

[hskr4life]

Just now, hhcmatt said:

 

Would have been helpful if Clemson lost that one

Absolutely.  They were arguably trending into bubble territory even though most still had them “in”.  Now they are solidly in with a HUGE road win.  I looked at their remaining schedule though and it’s pretty much bubble teams and bottoms of the conference from here on out.  Not a ton of room for improvement but some chances at losses.  So then it becomes… do we want them to continue winning now and beat teams like Syracuse, Wake Forest, NCST, etc who are bigger bubble candidates right now.

[Handy Johnson]

38 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Multiple people talking about them being a bubbly team should they continue this roll.  
 

Their resume is ugly right now both in predictive metrics, result metrics, and SOS.  That win notches their first Q1 win though and they have some

opportunities coming up.  It’d have to be a “lightning in a bottle” type of run.

 

An NIT run isn’t out of the question though.

When they beat us in December, the Star Tribune considered it (at the time) the BEST Win of the Ben Johnson Era. They’ll have to make a ridiculous run in the B1G Tournament to qualify & I don’t see that happening. 

[hskr4life]

4 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

When they beat us in December, the Star Tribune considered it (at the time) the BEST Win of the Ben Johnson Era. They’ll have to make a ridiculous run in the B1G Tournament to qualify & I don’t see that happening. 

IDK if it’ll even take that… call me crazy but if they beat Iowa and Purdue on the road in their next two to get to 17-7, 8-5… they’ll be in the bubble picture coming down the stretch.

[Handy Johnson]

24 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

IDK if it’ll even take that… call me crazy but if they beat Iowa and Purdue on the road in their next two to get to 17-7, 8-5… they’ll be in the bubble picture coming down the stretch.

If that happens I’ll do more than call you “Crazy” I’ll buy you ALL the Beers you want on Senior Day at the PBA. 

[royalfan]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Absolutely.  They were arguably trending into bubble territory even though most still had them “in”.  Now they are solidly in with a HUGE road win.  I looked at their remaining schedule though and it’s pretty much bubble teams and bottoms of the conference from here on out.  Not a ton of room for improvement but some chances at losses.  So then it becomes… do we want them to continue winning now and beat teams like Syracuse, Wake Forest, NCST, etc who are bigger bubble candidates right now.

Certainly as of now we want Clemson to beat those types of teams.  Can change, but have to root for how it looks on the present.  

[hhcmatt]

Bubble team Washington St @ Oregon St tonight, a double dip for us

Memphis @ Temple - rooting for Memphis to completely fall off the bubble

[hskr4life]

Results (2/7/24): Most bubble teams took care of business and Creighton couldn't even throw us a bone.

• Big 10 Games
  • Wisconsin 68 @ Michigan 72
  • Nebraska 68 @ Northwestern 80
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Davidson 72 @ Duquesne 59
  • Creighton 87 @ Providence 91
• Other Bubble Games
  • Georgetown 70 @ Seton Hall 76
  • Louisville 92 @ Syracuse 94
  • Pitt 67 @ NCST 64
  • Valpo 61 @ Indiana St 101
  • Southern Illinois 88 @ Drake 92
  • Portland 64 @ Gonzaga 96
  • Texas A&M 79 @ Mizzou 60
  • Georgia 62 @ Miss St 75

 

Games To Watch (2/7/24): Biggest bubble games for us are, as Dimes noted, the Memphis game and the Oregon St. game.  Utah and Oregon are both probably in(ish) though more bubbly than locks.  Pac 12 isn't great, so losses in that conference aren't great either. Similarly, Florida Atlantic is probably solidly in. However, they've looked shaky in many of their games and a few losses by them could ensure that they are in a 1 bid conference if Memphis continues to lose but would beat them in the conference tournament.

• Big 10 Games
  • Iowa @ Penn St
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Stony Brook @ Elon
  • Rider @ Fairfield
  • Omaha @ North Dakota
  • Tennessee St @ Lindenwood
  • Cal St Fullerton @ UC Davis
  • Washington St @ Oregon St
• Other Bubble Games
  • Memphis @ Temple
  • Arizona @ Utah
  • Arizona St @ Colorado
  • Florida Atlantic @ UAB
  • Washington @ Oregon

[HuskerActuary]

Wazzu / Oregon St feels like the most important game. Some others I saw...

• Root for Arizona St over Colorado. While unlikely, CU probably misses the tournament with a loss
• Root for Arizona over Utah, who could still possibly miss the tournament with a loss, but is essentially a lock with a win
• Root for Washington over Oregon. While both are teams currently on the outside looking in, Oregon is closer.
• Root for Temple over Memphis. Memphis has some life, but not a lot. Choke them out.

 

edit: Looks like hskr4life beat me by about ten seconds 

Edited February 8 by HuskerActuary

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Wazzu over Oregon St feels like the most important game. Some others I saw...

• Root for Arizona St over Colorado. While unlikely, CU probably misses the tournament with a loss
• Root for Arizona over Utah, who could still possibly miss the tournament with a loss, but is essentially a lock with a win
• Root for Washington over Oregon. While both are teams currently on the outside looking in, Oregon is closer.
• Root for Temple over Memphis. Memphis has some life, but not a lot. Choke them out.

 

edit: Looks like hskr4life beat me by about ten seconds 

 

Hey good to see we're all rooting for the same teams.  Would be awkward for us to be cheering against each other later with both of our end goals being that it helps the Huskers.  LOL

[hskr4life]

Results (2/7/24): The only real notable result is probably FAU losing to UAB.  A few more losses by the owls combined with Memphis losing could make that a 1 bid league.  North Dakota has now won 7 in a row and sit atop the Summit.

• Big 10 Games
  • Iowa 79 @ Penn St 89
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Stony Brook 79 @ Elon 64
  • Rider 67 @ Fairfield 84
  • Omaha 78 @ North Dakota 99
  • Tennessee St 65 @ Lindenwood 55
  • Cal St Fullerton 58 @ UC Davis 71
  • Washington St 64 @ Oregon St 58
• Other Bubble Games
  • Memphis 84 @ Temple 77
  • Arizona 105 @ Utah 99 (3OT)
  • Arizona St 70 @ Colorado 82
  • Florida Atlantic 73 @ UAB 76
  • Washington 80 @ Oregon 85

 

Games To Watch (2/8/24): 

• Big 10 Games
  • None
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • None
• Other Bubble Games
  • San Diego St @ Nevada

[AuroranHusker]

11 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Results (2/7/24): The only real notable result is probably FAU losing to UAB.  A few more losses by the owls combined with Memphis losing could make that a 1 bid league.  North Dakota has now won 7 in a row and sit atop the Summit.

• Big 10 Games
  • Iowa 79 @ Penn St 89
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Stony Brook 79 @ Elon 64
  • Rider 67 @ Fairfield 84
  • Omaha 78 @ North Dakota 99
  • Tennessee St 65 @ Lindenwood 55
  • Cal St Fullerton 58 @ UC Davis 71
  • Washington St 64 @ Oregon St 58
• Other Bubble Games
  • Memphis 84 @ Temple 77
  • Arizona 105 @ Utah 99 (3OT)
  • Arizona St 70 @ Colorado 82
  • Florida Atlantic 73 @ UAB 76
  • Washington 80 @ Oregon 85

 

Games To Watch (2/8/24): 

• Big 10 Games
  • None
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • None
• Other Bubble Games
  • San Diego St @ Nevada

 

Which team is the one we want to lose? I don't follow all these other programs close enough to know that, for certain, in a lot of cases. Is the team in bold the "bubble team," per se?

 

[hskr4life]

12 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Which team is the one we want to lose? I don't follow all these other programs close enough to know that, for certain, in a lot of cases. Is the team in bold the "bubble team," per se?

 

Yeah— the bold team is the bubble team.  Some are more bubbly than others and mostly just personal opinion on who is bubbly from what I can gather.

[AuroranHusker]

3 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Yeah— the bold team is the bubble team.  Some are more bubbly than others and mostly just personal opinion on who is bubbly from what I can gather.

 

Thanks h4l.

 

[unl]

From my view, Dayton is 19-3 and ranked 19th at 15-8 VCU. I’d hate to see VCU get a quad one win. A home loss sounds like it can only help us as Dayton is solidly in?

 

Tim’s San Jose State 8-15 is at 18-5 Colorado State. Would like to see SJSU win this for a couple reasons. 
 

Where am I off?

[hskr4life]

18 minutes ago, unl said:

From my view, Dayton is 19-3 and ranked 19th at 15-8 VCU. I’d hate to see VCU get a quad one win. A home loss sounds like it can only help us as Dayton is solidly in?

 

Tim’s San Jose State 8-15 is at 18-5 Colorado State. Would like to see SJSU win this for a couple reasons. 
 

Where am I off?

VCU won, but I’m not thinking that’s a huge deal unless they go on a huge win streak.  Their metrics, both predictive and resume, are pretty bad.  They also have 2 Q4 losses.

[HuskerActuary]

Easily the most important game of the day did not go our way. Nevada now squarely on the bubble.

[hskr4life]

Just now, HuskerActuary said:

Easily the most important game of the day did not go our way. Nevada now squarely on the bubble.

yeahhh… that conference is going to beat up on each other just enough to get 6 bids.

[Bugeaters1]

 

[Bugeaters1]