If we attempt 60 FG per game ...

[Norm Peterson]

How many of them do you want to be from 2-point range?

 

In other words, what ratio of 2s  vs  3s  would you like to see?

 

As of right now, we've attempted 113 2-point shots and 116 3-point shots. So, we're roughly 50/50. Is that where you'd want it?

[jimmykc]

Can you figure out the ratio for our opponents thus far?

[hskr4life]

For reference to answer this question, here are our shooting numbers so far.  Curtesy of Bart LINK

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by hskr4life

[hhcmatt]

29 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Can you figure out the ratio for our opponents thus far?

 

Here is our opponent's 3pt shooting attempts/shooting attempt ratios for all games

 

In just games vs us, 35.5% of the shots our opponents have taken were 3s.

[TourneyBound]

65% 2's

35% 3s

[Norm Peterson]

We're making just less than 1 point per 3-pt attempt.

 

We're making just over 1.1 points per 2-pt attempt.

 

Seems to me there will likely be a lot greater fluctuation between shooting percentage on 3-point attempts vs. 2-point attempts. Twos  tend to be  higher-percentage shots. And even a good 3-point shooting team can go  cold  from time to time.

 

I'm a  bit  concerned at  our lack of  2-point productivity. I'm with @ConkintheCorner in that I'd like to see our 3-point  attempts more like 20 per game to go along with 40 2-point attempts. Maybe not quite twice as many twos per game, but close.

[Huskerpapa]

1 minute ago, Norm Peterson said:

We're making just less than 1 point per 3-pt attempt.

 

We're making just over 1.1 points per 2-pt attempt.

 

Seems to me there will likely be a lot greater fluctuation between shooting percentage on 3-point attempts vs. 2-point attempts. Twos  tend to be  higher-percentage shots. And even a good 3-point shooting team can go  cold  from time to time.

 

I'm a  bit  concerned at  our lack of  2-point productivity. I'm with @ConkintheCorner in that I'd like to see our 3-point  attempts more like 20 per game to go along with 40 2-point attempts. Maybe not quite twice as many twos per game, but close.

Perhaps our opponents are respecting our 3 point shooting ability, and are coming out strongly to defend, thus opening up our 2 point shots?

 

Just to add, I am very concerned with our ability to finish at the rim.  We seem to miss an alarming number of our bunnies.

[cornfed24-7]

This is a tough one. We seem to struggle in the paint/finishing. And I don't expect us to get better at it as the competition gets better. We just don't have a banger like Walker to make anyone respect us down low. And we don't seem to have even a poor mans James Palmer either. It seems to me if we are gonna have success going to the rim it's gonna have to be back cuts or getting the D out of position with good ball movement. With all that said I think this is a live by the 3 die by the 3 team. I'm going with 55% 2's and 45% 3's. We better be a good shooting team or we might be in trouble. 

[basketballjones]

26 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

We're making just less than 1 point per 3-pt attempt.

 

We're making just over 1.1 points per 2-pt attempt.

 

Seems to me there will likely be a lot greater fluctuation between shooting percentage on 3-point attempts vs. 2-point attempts. Twos  tend to be  higher-percentage shots. And even a good 3-point shooting team can go  cold  from time to time.

 

I'm a  bit  concerned at  our lack of  2-point productivity. I'm with @ConkintheCorner in that I'd like to see our 3-point  attempts more like 20 per game to go along with 40 2-point attempts. Maybe not quite twice as many twos per game, but close.

I think our numbers from 3 are bad right now because of two guys we expect much higher efficiency from - KT and JL. 

[hhcmatt]

I'd say the large amount of 3s we're taking right now is a combination of us thinking we have a lineup that can make them and a series of opponents that defend to take away the 2.

 

Here is our current opponent list and highlighted is the ratio of 3pt shots they give up. As you can see, all of our current opponents give up a higher ratio of 3s and that will continue until Creighton, a team notorious for trying to run you off the 3pt line.  The one caveat is that these numbers can be skewed by opponents early on in the season and per opponent you need to look at a coach's history if you can.  Wayne Tickle at Oregon St has been fairly consistent about guarding the 2 over the 3.  Keith Dambrot at Duquesne isn't consistent year to year so I'd be less confident they'll try and take away the 2. 

 

 

I don't know what the magic number should be for 3pt ratio but I'd assume just based on everything I've seen thus far that I'd put the over/under at 43% on the year with a range of 40%-46%.  One thing to note on this team is that it currently doesn't have a Yvan or Eduardo or Walker....everyone we play shoots 3s. All of this is why I looked up our 3pt shooting record....I'd be willing to bet actual money we're going to break the volume based ones. 

 

I think our defense, especially with our improved rebounding this year, can keep us in a lot of games.  I also think that this team can generate points at the FT line if shots aren't falling.  While us chucking a lot of 3s might lose us some games, it arguably puts us into a position to beat teams better than us.

[royalfan]

For me, I don’t care what the ratio is at should change game to game based on what the defense is giving you.  What needs to change is somewhat challenged treys early in the shot clock.  We need to hunt easy layups or wide open threes the first 18-19 seconds.  We can typically get a partial contested trey in the last ten seconds if we need to.  We are going to be mediocre at best if we don’t figure this out soon.  

[Norm Peterson]

8 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

I'd say the large amount of 3s we're taking right now is a combination of us thinking we have a lineup that can make them and a series of opponents that defend to take away the 2.

 

Here is our current opponent list and highlighted is the ratio of 3pt shots they give up. As you can see, all of our current opponents give up a higher ratio of 3s and that will continue until Creighton, a team notorious for trying to run you off the 3pt line.  The one caveat is that these numbers can be skewed by opponents early on in the season and per opponent you need to look at a coach's history if you can.  Wayne Tickle at Oregon St has been fairly consistent about guarding the 2 over the 3.  Keith Dambrot at Duquesne isn't consistent year to year so I'd be less confident they'll try and take away the 2. 

 

 

I don't know what the magic number should be for 3pt ratio but I'd assume just based on everything I've seen thus far that I'd put the over/under at 43% on the year with a range of 40%-46%.  One thing to note on this team is that it currently doesn't have a Yvan or Eduardo or Walker....everyone we play shoots 3s. All of this is why I looked up our 3pt shooting record....I'd be willing to bet actual money we're going to break the volume based ones. 

 

I think our defense, especially with our improved rebounding this year, can keep us in a lot of games.  I also think that this team can generate points at the FT line if shots aren't falling.  While us chucking a lot of 3s might lose us some games, it arguably puts us into a position to beat teams better than us.

 

That's a good point. Everyone on the team, including our bigs, probably has a green light to take 3s. That's going to probably increase your volume and tilt the ratio a bit. Still, we need to be able to score at the rim just to keep defenses honest.

[hhcmatt]

4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

That's a good point. Everyone on the team, including our bigs, probably has a green light to take 3s. That's going to probably increase your volume and tilt the ratio a bit. Still, we need to be able to score at the rim just to keep defenses honest.

 

To me you're looking at it backwards....you shoot 3s to keep a defense honest because that gives you the space to convert in the paint.  I do think in some games we might find value feeding Mast and letting him go to work with that hook shot but on most conference nights were better off having Big 10 post players follow him out to the 3pt line. 

[hhcmatt]

1 hour ago, royalfan said:

For me, I don’t care what the ratio is at should change game to game based on what the defense is giving you.  What needs to change is somewhat challenged treys early in the shot clock.  We need to hunt easy layups or wide open threes the first 18-19 seconds.  We can typically get a partial contested trey in the last ten seconds if we need to.  We are going to be mediocre at best if we don’t figure this out soon.  

 

For the most part I agree though I do see some value in Keisei firing up 1-2 WTF shots a game to expand the defense.  At no point do I want Juwan Gary taking those types of shots.

[jimmykc]

Small sample stats can be very confusing. For example, if I had no knowledge of our personnel, I would think we should play Tominaga near the rim and stop him from shooting 3's or going to the line. Let's wait until January to take much notice of percentages. (except our winning percentage of !00%) 

[hhcmatt]

51 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Small sample stats can be very confusing. For example, if I had no knowledge of our personnel, I would think we should play Tominaga near the rim and stop him from shooting 3's or going to the line. Let's wait until January to take much notice of percentages. (except our winning percentage of !00%) 

 

Doesn't it seem like this is a group with context though?  While I agree with you that we don't really know if we're good at shooting 3s or who might have a good year at shooting 3s I don't think it's too early to say we're going to be shooting them at a significantly higher clip than last year.

[Cazzie22]

This is complete over simplification on my part but I don’t care what shots we take as long as we make a decent percentage.

[hhcmatt]

24 minutes ago, Cazzie22 said:

This is complete over simplification on my part but I don’t care what shots we take as long as we make a decent percentage.

 

scared money don't make money

[royalfan]

7 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

 

For the most part I agree though I do see some value in Keisei firing up 1-2 WTF shots a game to expand the defense.  At no point do I want Juwan Gary taking those types of shots.

 

Yeah, I am fine with Keisei taking about whatever he thinks.  I am speaking to everyone else.  

[AuroranHusker]

Nebraska has 1 main three-ball threat, and a bunch of guys who think they're "shooters" at the moment. They need to figure out who has a green light and who needs to work the ball.... the trajectory of the season's success hangs in the balance based on how they respond to their designated roles going forward. I think Juwan Gary coming back in a big way might just show the rest of the guys that it's okay to be who you are & not try to be heroic in their efforts. Collective good play will win a lot of ballgames, but that can all go awry when the guys don't accept who they are in the system. Just look back at the first 3 seasons under Hoiberg, it's not hard to figure out what went awry with "Hero-Ball." I think this season could go either way, let's hope it's a good trajectory in the next few weeks for Hoi-Ball. GBR

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by AuroranHusker

[hhcmatt]

17 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

Nebraska has 1 main three-ball threat,

 

Brice Williams is a career 39.7% 3pt shooter. Keisei is 36.8%.

[Norm Peterson]

 

20 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

To me you're looking at it backwards....you shoot 3s to keep a defense honest because that gives you the space to convert in the paint.  I do think in some games we might find value feeding Mast and letting him go to work with that hook shot but on most conference nights were better off having Big 10 post players follow him out to the 3pt line. 

 

I think it works both ways. Last year, we had Derrick Walker who could creatively score at the rim. Defenses had to account for him. This year, it seems so far like we'll "settle" for a three and not even try to attack the rim. What's the point of opening driving lanes with your 3-point shooters if we're not using them? If we don't have anyone who can leverage those lanes? And that's especially a problem if you open the game 2-12 from 3-point range like we did against Stoneybrook.

[hhcmatt]

13 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

 

I think it works both ways. Last year, we had Derrick Walker who could creatively score at the rim. Defenses had to account for him. This year, it seems so far like we'll "settle" for a three and not even try to attack the rim. What's the point of opening driving lanes with your 3-point shooters if we're not using them? If we don't have anyone who can leverage those lanes? And that's especially a problem if you open the game 2-12 from 3-point range like we did against Stoneybrook.

 

I'd be one thing if we were just a 3pt shooting team and if they don't go in we're screwed. However, we're currently getting to the line at a lot higher rate than last season which pushes back against us just settling.  

[AuroranHusker]

17 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Brice Williams is a career 39.7% 3pt shooter. Keisei is 36.8%.

 

Keisei is the 1 who has a green light at all times. No one else should.

 

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by AuroranHusker

[Huskerpapa]

26 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Keisei is the 1 who has a green light at all times. No one else does.

 

Are you sure?