KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[Vinny]

2 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

The day is Saturday, January 13, 1996, and the Nebraska Cornhusker men's basketball team is taking on Kelvin Sampson's Oklahoma Sooners down in Norman.

 

The game ends in a tie. But we can't have ties. So we go to overtime.

 

Overtime ends in a tie (after the officials waive off a Jaron Boone buzzer-beater -- that would have won the game -- because he released it from the short corner behind the plane of the backboard). But we can't have ties. So we go to a second overtime.

 

Second overtime ends in a tie, but Nebraska is losing starters to foul trouble. And we can't have ties. So we go to a third overtime with the Huskers short-handed.

 

And OU blows it open in OT #3 and wins by 17 points, 117-100.

 

Just play better in OT? That's the answer? Thanks for the recommendation.

 

Is that what the metrics are supposed to reflect? Whether a short-handed team was able to "play better" in the third OT?

 

Most games don't go to OT, let alone 3OT. And the likelihood that a team's efficiencies and results will be impaired by foul trouble increases in each extra 5-minute increment by which the game is extended.

 

Seems to me calling that 1996 game a 17-point loss rather than a 1-point loss would skew the data of what the metrics are intended to reflect, which is to reliably rank every team from best to worst.

 

The vast majority of games are decided in regulation. How is including results from OT going to improve your ability to rank the way teams are likely going to play in regulation?

The idea of these metrics is to measure everything that wins and loses don’t. Ignoring data is bad science. That game measured that Oklahoma had more depth, I suppose. I was eight years old and don’t recall.

[Norm Peterson]

1 minute ago, Vinny said:

The idea of these metrics is to measure everything that wins and loses don’t. Ignoring data is bad science. That game measured that Oklahoma had more depth, I suppose. I was eight years old and don’t recall.

 

Why do we care about the rest of that data, though? I mean, we can measure shooting percentages and rebounding, etc. The point of gathering that data, though, and assigning various values to the data, prioritizing some numbers over others (somewhat arbitrarily) is about trying to determine which teams are truly the best in an objective way.

 

But since the vast majority of games end in regulation, does it not skew your data to treat OT like it's part of regulation?

[Vinny]

3 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Why do we care about the rest of that data, though? I mean, we can measure shooting percentages and rebounding, etc. The point of gathering that data, though, and assigning various values to the data, prioritizing some numbers over others (somewhat arbitrarily) is about trying to determine which teams are truly the best in an objective way.

 

But since the vast majority of games end in regulation, does it not skew your data to treat OT like it's part of regulation?

I don’t think so, especially in basketball when it is 5 more minutes of the same rules. Football, MLB now, shootouts in soccer, sure. But basketball is great because they just keep playing the game and it does tell you things about the qualities the teams possess. Be that an ability to defend without fouling or how deep your bench goes, or anything else. 
 

That’s just how I feel about it. And I’m gonna leave it at that.

[Norm Peterson]

1 minute ago, Vinny said:

I don’t think so, especially in basketball when it is 5 more minutes of the same rules. Football, MLB now, shootouts in soccer, sure. But basketball is great because they just keep playing the game and it does tell you things about the qualities the teams possess. Be that an ability to defend without fouling or how deep your bench goes, or anything else. 
 

That’s just how I feel about it. And I’m gonna leave it at that.

 

Fair enough.

[hhcmatt]

When the final game is played this is going to be the best Nebraska team of the KenPom era

[AuroranHusker]

2 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

When the final game is played this is going to be the best Nebraska team of the KenPom era

 

Kudos to Fred & Co. for resurrecting his own career and making NU relevant again, the early-to-mid 1990s, Nebraska kicked a lot o' butt. GBR Always.

 

[49r]

Only one of the sixteen teams left in the tournament is ranked lower on KenPom than us.  NC State.

 

Also, we finish only two spots behind Kansas.

 

Also, the Big Ten conference is inching up to the #2 spot, which is amazing considering how "down" the conference was this year.

 

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference		Rating	Conference		Rating
1	Big 12 Conference	+16.69	18	Big South Conference	-3.70
2	Big East Conference	+15.02	19	Coastal Athletic Association	-4.04
3	Big Ten Conference	+14.99	20	Horizon League	-4.32
4	Southeastern Conference	+14.19	21	America East Conference	-4.93
5	Atlantic Coast Conference	+12.74	22	Big Sky Conference	-5.74
6	Pac 12 Conference	+11.33	23	Summit League	-5.87
7	Mountain West Conference	+10.60	24	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference	-6.48
8	Atlantic 10 Conference	+5.20	25	Mid American Conference	-6.49
9	American Athletic Conference	+3.79	26	ASUN Conference	-7.09
10	Missouri Valley Conference	+3.35	27	Independents	-10.38
11	West Coast Conference	+0.83	28	Ohio Valley Conference	-11.11
12	Southern Conference	-0.44	29	Southland Conference	-11.44
13	Ivy League	-0.60	30	Patriot League	-12.41
14	Western Athletic Conference	-1.03	31	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference	-12.51
15	Conference USA	-1.75	32	Southwestern Athletic Conference	-13.07
16	Big West Conference	-2.61	33	Northeast Conference	-13.41
17	Sun Belt Conference	-2.83

[Chuck Taylor]

Metrics guys take a lot of heat, but KenPom had 13 of the Sweet 16. Missed on SDSU, NC State and Clemson (instead of Auburn, Kentucky and Baylor). Better than my bracket.

 

Here's the pre-tournament probabilities:

 

https://kenpom.substack.com/p/ncaa-tournament-win-probabilities

Edited March 26 by Chuck Taylor

[hhcmatt]

KenPom highlights the highest rating given to your program since 1997

 

 

[49r]

1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

KenPom highlights the highest rating given to your program since 1997