Where we are; where we want to go

[Norm Peterson]

Per Game Stats

NAME Teddy Allen G Dalano Banton G Trey McGowens G Kobe Webster G Lat Mayen F Shamiel Stevenson G Yvan Ouedraogo F Thorir Thorbjarnarson G Jace Piatkowski G Bret Porter F Elijah Wood G Total

GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FG% FT% 3P% 4 26.3 19.0 5.8 1.5 3.5 0.0 1.8 47.2 60.0 33.3 4 29.3 13.5 6.8 5.8 2.0 1.5 1.5 44.7 77.3 20.0 4 26.5 11.5 4.0 1.5 1.3 0.3 2.3 40.5 78.6 35.7 4 20.8 10.3 2.5 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.8 43.8 80.0 26.3 4 26.0 9.5 6.8 1.8 0.5 0.3 1.8 37.1 40.0 38.5 4 20.5 9.3 3.5 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.3 63.2 72.2 0.0 4 19.0 4.3 5.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.5 31.6 50.0 0.0 4 26.3 2.8 3.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.8 20.0 0.0 21.4 2 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 2 2.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 5.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4   80.8 41.0 14.3 12.0 3.0 11.0 41.6 67.9 28.9

[Norm Peterson]

OK, that chart didn't paste the way I'd hoped.

 

I'm curious what people think, though. I'm going to posit a theory, and welcome anyone to comment on it however you wish.

 

So, we have some guys who are under-performing hopes/expectations from 3-point range, which is a shot this offense very much relies upon. In some ways, it's a small sample size, 4 games, but in other respects, we have some historical data to look back on.

 

Kobe Webster is probably the biggest enigma. His sophomore year was his high-water mark for 3-point attempts but it was also his high-water mark for accuracy, in which season he nailed 41.3% of 184 trey attempts. But right now he's at 26.3%, which is nearly 10 percentage points worse than his freshman season accuracy, and 7% worse than his previous worst season last year.

 

Thor is probably the next biggest surprise. As a freshman, he hit 2-5 from three. As a sophomore, he doubled his makes but nearly quintupled his attempts for a paltry 17.4% rate from 3-point range. But that was on a small sample size of only 23 attempts. Last year, it's like he really hit stride. And, until the last 10 games of the season, was proficient weapon from deep, hovering at or over 40% for most of the year. This year, he's fallen back to nearly his sophomore year level of futility.

 

Next is Dalano Banton. Not much of a mystery there: he's historically a poor 3-point shooter. This year, he's actually hitting a higher percentage than he did his freshman year at Western KY. But not by much. He's currently 3-15 for exactly 20%. Which isn't very good, but, in fairness, he's not gone out of his way to try launching a bunch of treys either.

 

Finally, there's Shamiel Steveson. As a freshman at Pitt, he hit 15 of his 40 3-point attempts for a respectable 37.5%. This year, he's 0-3, which means he's taking (and missing) just under 1 per game.

 

As a team, we're sitting at just under 29% from 3. That's due in large part to the fact that no one on this team right now is shooting lights out from beyond the arc. But also because we have 4 of the 7 guys in the regular rotation who have attempted threes just not shooting them very well at all.

 

If we're going to move the needle from under 30% to, let's say, mid-30s, where is that going to come from? I'm going to suggest that when you're closer to your potential, incremental improvements will be smaller. So, Lat Mayen going from his current 38.5 to over 40% would happen by making 1 more shot. But for our team to get to just 35%, for example, they'd have to hit 35 of their next 79 3-point attempts.

 

That's only 44%, so it's doable.

 

But I think it's going to have to involve Kobe, Thor, Dalano and Shamiel stepping up and making more from downtown.

 

So, of those players, which do you think is most likely to have a breakout and why?

[Vinny]

I think Kobe has the best shot at a “breakout”. He has proven over a large sample size to be better so has the room to improve.

Lat doesn’t have as far to go up as Kobe.

 

The way you laid out Thor’s numbers has made me view his shooting differently. From “he’s gotten better over his career and shot well in Hoiberg’s system last year” to “outside of the start last season, he hasn’t proven to be reliable from beyond the arc”. Love Thor, but that’s the data that’s out there.

[Vinny]

I suppose the small sample size for Shamiel makes him a breakout candidate as well. It would be great if he starting hitting a couple a game, but right now he’s not even taking a couple a game. So that would qualify as a breakout to me.

[Handy Johnson]

Thor is more of a proven commodity, tho I think as Shamiel’s minutes increase he will prove to be invaluable, not only as a shooter but his “all around” game is such an asset...

[Huskerpapa]

I believe Thor will break out.  Heck, perhaps he is not used to wide open looks?? 

By the way, when was the three point line moved back?

[Norm Peterson]

1 hour ago, Vinny said:

I think Kobe has the best shot at a “breakout”. He has proven over a large sample size to be better so has the room to improve.

Lat doesn’t have as far to go up as Kobe.

 

The way you laid out Thor’s numbers has made me view his shooting differently. From “he’s gotten better over his career and shot well in Hoiberg’s system last year” to “outside of the start last season, he hasn’t proven to be reliable from beyond the arc”. Love Thor, but that’s the data that’s out there.

 

I've thought about that. It's like Miles' assessment of his 2nd season: were we that good or did we just get hot at the right time? Thor shot a respectable 37.5% from beyond the arc last season, but the last month or so (last 10-15 games) he was not good and getting worse each set of 5 games.

 

But Coach Hoiberg seems to have a lot of confidence in him. He shoots well in practice, apparently. It shows he can do it. There are probably guys who don't shoot well in games who also don't shoot well in practice, and so you don't expect much improvement from them. But when you have a kid who you know is able because he can make it consistently in practice, it's just a matter of getting him to stop thinking when he shoots in games and start feeling.

[Norm Peterson]

On the subject of 3-point shooting and Thor, I suspect Thor will get hot one of these days. And when that happens, I hope they feed him the ball like a momma feeding a hungry baby.

[REDitus]

I think McGowens could shoot a little more.   That would help.  His shooting pt%  is .357 and he has the same amount of attempts 14  as Thor who is at .214.  Banton has shot 15 and is at .200.    So he needs to shoot more from outside while Banton and Thor should continue to look to dive towards the basket.    Banton only needs to shoot enough from outside to get them to respect it and for them to play up on him where he can get around them.   Thor looks a bit rushed sometimes on some of his shots.   I think Stevenson will eventually start hitting some as I think teams will let him shoot.  He just needs to see a few go in for him to get rolling.   

 

Overall Individual Statistics

#	Player	GP	GS	Minutes		FG			3PT			FT			Scoring		Rebounds				PF	AST	TO	STL	BLK
				TOT	AVG	FGM	FGA	FG%	3PT	3PTA	3PT%	FTM	FTA	FT%	PTS	AVG	OFF	DEF	TOT	AVG
11	Mayen, Lat	4	4	104	26.0	13	35	.371	10	26	.385	2	5	.400	38	9.5	8	19	27	6.8	11	7	7	2	1
00	Allen, Teddy	4	4	105	26.3	25	53	.472	8	24	.333	18	30	.600	76	19.0	8	15	23	5.8	10	6	7	14	0
10	Webster, Kobe	4	0	84	21.0	14	32	.438	5	19	.263	8	10	.800	41	10.3	0	10	10	2.5	5	5	3	5	0
45	Banton, Dalano	4	4	117	29.3	17	38	.447	3	15	.200	17	22	.773	54	13.5	6	21	27	6.8	6	23	6	8	6
34	Thorbjarnarson, Thorir	4	4	105	26.3	4	20	.200	3	14	.214	0	0	.000	11	2.8	2	10	12	3.0	7	4	3	6	0
02	McGowens, Trey	4	4	106	26.5	15	37	.405	5	14	.357	11	14	.786	46	11.5	3	13	16	4.0	13	6	9	5	1
04	Stevenson, Shamiel	4	0	82	20.5	12	19	.632	0	5	.000	13	18	.722	37	9.3	4	10	14	3.5	13	3	5	4	0

 

I think the answer to where we want to go is with our latest recruiting class.   All can bomb. 

Edited December 7, 2020 by REDitus

[Norm Peterson]

Thanks for posting that chart, @REDitus. Here's a surprise: Shamiel is averaging 18 points per 40 minutes of playing time; Trey is averaging 17.4 points per 40 minutes. I find that interesting. Aside from his 3-point shooting numbers, Shamiel is far and away the most efficient shooter on the team.

[REDitus]

Yah I think Shamiel's minutes could go up a little  and Thor's down a little bit.  It depends on the defensive matchup though.   Thor is better with defending the quick guards while Shamiel is better with bigger body types.    

[Jacob Padilla]

21 hours ago, REDitus said:

Yah I think Shamiel's minutes could go up a little  and Thor's down a little bit.  It depends on the defensive matchup though.   Thor is better with defending the quick guards while Shamiel is better with bigger body types.    

 

I don't agree at all with Thorir defending quick guards. He's a smart off-ball defender but he has slow feet. You don't want him trying to slow down quick guards on the perimeter. McGowens is really the only guy they have that moves his feet really well in those kinds of matchups. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Jacob Padilla

[Jacob Padilla]

22 hours ago, REDitus said:

I think McGowens could shoot a little more.   That would help.  His shooting pt%  is .357 and he has the same amount of attempts 14  as Thor who is at .214.  Banton has shot 15 and is at .200.    So he needs to shoot more from outside while Banton and Thor should continue to look to dive towards the basket.    Banton only needs to shoot enough from outside to get them to respect it and for them to play up on him where he can get around them.   Thor looks a bit rushed sometimes on some of his shots.   I think Stevenson will eventually start hitting some as I think teams will let him shoot.  He just needs to see a few go in for him to get rolling.   

 

Overall Individual Statistics

#	Player	GP	GS	Minutes		FG			3PT			FT			Scoring		Rebounds				PF	AST	TO	STL	BLK
				TOT	AVG	FGM	FGA	FG%	3PT	3PTA	3PT%	FTM	FTA	FT%	PTS	AVG	OFF	DEF	TOT	AVG
11	Mayen, Lat	4	4	104	26.0	13	35	.371	10	26	.385	2	5	.400	38	9.5	8	19	27	6.8	11	7	7	2	1
00	Allen, Teddy	4	4	105	26.3	25	53	.472	8	24	.333	18	30	.600	76	19.0	8	15	23	5.8	10	6	7	14	0
10	Webster, Kobe	4	0	84	21.0	14	32	.438	5	19	.263	8	10	.800	41	10.3	0	10	10	2.5	5	5	3	5	0
45	Banton, Dalano	4	4	117	29.3	17	38	.447	3	15	.200	17	22	.773	54	13.5	6	21	27	6.8	6	23	6	8	6
34	Thorbjarnarson, Thorir	4	4	105	26.3	4	20	.200	3	14	.214	0	0	.000	11	2.8	2	10	12	3.0	7	4	3	6	0
02	McGowens, Trey	4	4	106	26.5	15	37	.405	5	14	.357	11	14	.786	46	11.5	3	13	16	4.0	13	6	9	5	1
04	Stevenson, Shamiel	4	0	82	20.5	12	19	.632	0	5	.000	13	18	.722	37	9.3	4	10	14	3.5	13	3	5	4	0

 

I think the answer to where we want to go is with our latest recruiting class.   All can bomb. 

 

11 of Banton's 3s (and all 3 of his makes) came in that Nevada game. So beyond the outlier, he's taking 1-2 a game which is what you're asking of him. 

 

Thorir just needs to keep shooting. Either he starts hitting or he starts to lose his minutes. He's 1-6 inside the arc too, so not like he's any better there.

 

I think McGowens is right on that sweet spot where you want him of 2-5 attempts per game. He definitely looks to be improved as a shooter, but not sure he's a volume guy. You want him attacking more. 

[Fullbacksympathy]

28 minutes ago, Jacob Padilla said:

 

I don't agree at all with Thorir defending quick guards. He's a smart off-ball defender but he has slow feet. You don't want him trying to slow down quick guards on the perimeter. McGowens is really the only guy they have that moves his feet really well in those kinds of matchups. 

 

Mostly agree.  Kobe does okay as well.  But definitely don't want Thor guarding PGs and SGs if at all possible.  

[Fullbacksympathy]

22 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Thanks for posting that chart, @REDitus. Here's a surprise: Shamiel is averaging 18 points per 40 minutes of playing time; Trey is averaging 17.4 points per 40 minutes. I find that interesting. Aside from his 3-point shooting numbers, Shamiel is far and away the most efficient shooter on the team.

 

I would argue that Shamiel is basically tied with Trey and Lat for our second best player behind Banton thus far.  

[SkersHoops]

 

11 minutes ago, LK1 said:

 

I would argue that Shamiel is basically tied with Trey and Lat for our second best player behind Banton thus far.  

So 19, 5.8, 1.5, and 3.5...... is our 5th best player 

[REDitus]

45 minutes ago, Jacob Padilla said:

 

I don't agree at all with Thorir defending quick guards. He's a smart off-ball defender but he has slow feet. You don't want him trying to slow down quick guards on the perimeter. McGowens is really the only guy they have that moves his feet really well in those kinds of matchups. 

 

I understand what your saying but who else do we have to guard guards in your starting lineup?  Banton is guarding the 4.  Shamiel is more of a SF type.   If you start Webster than it's pretty simple,  but I am talking about swapping Shamiel and Thor into the lineup based upon who they have to defend at that 2 spot.   I definitely agree that McGowens is our best defender against guards.   He plays hard and like you say moves his feet well.   He's a good player and one of my favorite players on this years team. 

[49r]

@Norm Peterson with the rare "semicolon-in-thread-title" move.  Nice.

[Jacob Padilla]

20 minutes ago, REDitus said:

 

I understand what your saying but who else do we have to guard guards in your starting lineup?  Banton is guarding the 4.  Shamiel is more of a SF type.   If you start Webster than it's pretty simple,  but I am talking about swapping Shamiel and Thor into the lineup based upon who they have to defend at that 2 spot.   I definitely agree that McGowens is our best defender against guards.   He plays hard and like you say moves his feet well.   He's a good player and one of my favorite players on this years team. 

That's the problem. You have four guys in the starting lineup that would ideally guard 3s and 4s. Teddy isn't terribly quick either, but I think Banton and Teddy both are probably a bit better at defending on the perimeter than Thorir is. Basically everybody in that lineup except for Trey is more effective as an off-ball defender than guarding at the point of attack. I think that's where some of the foul issues popped up against Nevada - lot of hand checks. 

 

That's probably why Doc was calling for them to be even more aggressive digging in on drivers and going for steals on Sports Nightly last night. They're going to have to defend as a team. The tradeoff is more open 3s, but teams aren't hitting them very well against Nebraska so far. 

[REDitus]

1 hour ago, Jacob Padilla said:

That's the problem. You have four guys in the starting lineup that would ideally guard 3s and 4s.   Agree. 

 

Teddy isn't terribly quick either, but I think Banton and Teddy both are probably a bit better at defending on the perimeter than Thorir is.   

Disagree here but for different reasons.  Banton is more effective than Thor at guarding the 4 due to his length so want him there.   Teddy is one of our scorers, so I don't want him out chasing guards around and getting gassed.  I think Thor is better at that and you can sub him out with Kobe.   Teddy needs to get his minutes.   Teddy does a good job of playing passing lanes.  

 

Basically everybody in that lineup except for Trey is more effective as an off-ball defender than guarding at the point of attack. I think that's where some of the foul issues popped up against Nevada - lot of hand checks.   Agree