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2018-2019 KenPom Rankings Thread

49r

By 49r
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hhcdave
hhcdave

I appreciate your work, 49r, and passion for Husker Hoops. I know 99% of those here do.   Many years ago, before most people on this site found it, I and a staff of several others (including

hhcmatt
hhcmatt

Todays letter...   Dear Casey,   Recently I went through a rough patch with a dear friend Nebraska Basketball.  We've been through a lot together and yesterday we got into a fight

Huskerpapa
Huskerpapa

I am not sure how long KenPom has been around, but I honestly just realized it wasn't KenPorn.

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49r

49r

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After all the data was entered last night, we jumped 7 spots to land at #24.  Pretty good jump for just one game.  Everything else remains pretty much the same, except for Oklahoma State is on the rise now at #53, a 7 spot jump of their own.

 

The Big Ten is holding on to the #2 conference spot, with a narrow lead on the ACC.  Here's what's on tap for tonight in the B1G/ACC Challenge:

 

Michigan St.                           Tue, at 58 Louisville (W, 80-75, 68%)
Wisconsin                           Tue, vs 35 North Carolina St. (W, 76-68, 76%)
                               
Indiana                           Tue, at 1 Duke (L, 82-71, 16%)
                               
Iowa                           Tue, vs 118 Pittsburgh (W, 81-69, 86%)
                               
Penn St.                           Tue, vs 16 Virginia Tech (L, 70-69, 49%)
                               
Illinois                           Tue, at 52 Notre Dame (L, 76-69, 27%)

 

Looks like 4-2 is a really good possibility, hopefully more than a couple dozen fans show up in Happy Valley to cheer on the Nits.  The PSU v VTech game is #1 on the thrill score index for today, should be the game to see tonight.  So with all that said, let's GO Big Ten, and here is today's KenPom update:

 

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-27-18

==========================
 
B1G (0-0):
7. Michigan
8. Michigan State
12. Wisconsin

13. Purdue

21. Indiana

23. Ohio State

24. Nebraska

32. Iowa

33. Maryland
38. Penn State
46. Northwestern

50. Minnesota

95. Illinois

115. Rutgers
 
 
Non-Conference (6-1):
346. Mississippi Valley State - W
296. Southeastern Louisiana - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
54. Seton Hall - W
 
---Hall of Fame Classic---
187. Missouri State - W
11. Texas Tech - L
 
238. Western Illinois - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
29. @Clemson - W
 
34. Creighton
 
---Sanford Pentagon--
53. Oklahoma State
 
146. Cal State Fullerton
n/a. Southwest Minnesota State
49r

49r

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9 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Is my math right?  We have 20 games on our schedule this season against teams currently in the top 50 on Kenpom?  Someone want to do the math for me and check my numbers?  That's just a huge number of tough opponents in a single season.

 

@Norm Peterson, ole buddy, just for you today I'll put up the schedule and you can see for yourself that your math is spot on.  If Oklahoma State keeps winning, that number could jump to 21 soon.

 

 

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Tue Nov 6 38 346 Mississippi Valley St. W, 106-37 78   Home 1-0    
Sun Nov 11 35 296 Southeastern Louisiana W, 87-35 74   Home 2-0    
Wed Nov 14 33 54 Seton Hall W, 80-57 70   Home 3-0    
Mon Nov 19 29 187 Missouri St. W, 85-62 70   Neutral 4-0    
Tue Nov 20 23 11 Texas Tech L, 70-52 66   Neutral 4-1   a.gif
Sat Nov 24 32 238 Western Illinois W, 73-49 70   Home 5-1    
Mon Nov 26 31 29 Clemson W, 68-66 60   Away 6-1   a.gif
Sun Dec 2   95 Illinois W, 78-67 70 84% Home   ×  
Wed Dec 5   50 Minnesota W, 71-70 69 52% Away   × a.gif
Sat Dec 8   34 Creighton W, 75-71 70 67% Home     b.gif
Sun Dec 16   53 Oklahoma St. W, 72-68 69 64% Neutral     b.gif
Sat Dec 22   146 Cal St. Fullerton W, 78-63 70 91% Home      
Sat Dec 29   NR SW Minnesota St. W   100% Home      
Wed Jan 2   33 Maryland L, 72-70 69 41% Away   × a.gif
Sun Jan 6   32 Iowa L, 76-73 70 41% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 10   38 Penn St. W, 69-64 67 68% Home   × b.gif
Mon Jan 14   21 Indiana L, 72-69 68 36% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 17   8 Michigan St. W, 74-73 70 50% Home   × a.gif
Mon Jan 21   115 Rutgers W, 68-62 68 68% Away   × b.gif
Sat Jan 26   23 Ohio St. W, 69-66 66 62% Home   × a.gif
Tue Jan 29   12 Wisconsin W, 66-65 64 54% Home   × a.gif
Sat Feb 2   95 Illinois W, 75-71 70 64% Away   × a.gif
Wed Feb 6   33 Maryland W, 73-69 69 66% Home   × b.gif
Sat Feb 9   13 Purdue L, 74-68 67 29% Away   × a.gif
Wed Feb 13   50 Minnesota W, 74-66 69 75% Home   × b.gif
Sat Feb 16   46 Northwestern W, 70-64 66 73% Home   × b.gif
Tue Feb 19   38 Penn St. L, 67-66 67 44% Away   × a.gif
Sat Feb 23   13 Purdue W, 72-71 67 54% Home   × a.gif
Thu Feb 28   7 Michigan L, 68-61 65 25% Away   × a.gif
Tue Mar 5   8 Michigan St. L, 76-69 70 26% Away   × a.gif
Sun Mar 10   32 Iowa W, 77-72 70 66% Home   × b.gif
Projected record: 20-11 11-9
HuskerActuary

HuskerActuary

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Is my math right?  We have 20 games on our schedule this season against teams currently in the top 50 on Kenpom?  Someone want to do the math for me and check my numbers?  That's just a huge number of tough opponents in a single season.

Along those same lines, we are projected to have 12 quad-1 games this year - lots more opportunities for tier 1 wins! Last year, we only had 7 of these games and we only won one as I'm sure we all recall.

nustudent

nustudent

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

@Norm Peterson, ole buddy, just for you today I'll put up the schedule and you can see for yourself that your math is spot on.  If Oklahoma State keeps winning, that number could jump to 21 soon.

 

 

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Tue Nov 6 38 346 Mississippi Valley St. W, 106-37 78   Home 1-0    
Sun Nov 11 35 296 Southeastern Louisiana W, 87-35 74   Home 2-0    
Wed Nov 14 33 54 Seton Hall W, 80-57 70   Home 3-0    
Mon Nov 19 29 187 Missouri St. W, 85-62 70   Neutral 4-0    
Tue Nov 20 23 11 Texas Tech L, 70-52 66   Neutral 4-1   a.gif
Sat Nov 24 32 238 Western Illinois W, 73-49 70   Home 5-1    
Mon Nov 26 31 29 Clemson W, 68-66 60   Away 6-1   a.gif
Sun Dec 2   95 Illinois W, 78-67 70 84% Home   ×  
Wed Dec 5   50 Minnesota W, 71-70 69 52% Away   × a.gif
Sat Dec 8   34 Creighton W, 75-71 70 67% Home     b.gif
Sun Dec 16   53 Oklahoma St. W, 72-68 69 64% Neutral     b.gif
Sat Dec 22   146 Cal St. Fullerton W, 78-63 70 91% Home      
Sat Dec 29   NR SW Minnesota St. W   100% Home      
Wed Jan 2   33 Maryland L, 72-70 69 41% Away   × a.gif
Sun Jan 6   32 Iowa L, 76-73 70 41% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 10   38 Penn St. W, 69-64 67 68% Home   × b.gif
Mon Jan 14   21 Indiana L, 72-69 68 36% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 17   8 Michigan St. W, 74-73 70 50% Home   × a.gif
Mon Jan 21   115 Rutgers W, 68-62 68 68% Away   × b.gif
Sat Jan 26   23 Ohio St. W, 69-66 66 62% Home   × a.gif
Tue Jan 29   12 Wisconsin W, 66-65 64 54% Home   × a.gif
Sat Feb 2   95 Illinois W, 75-71 70 64% Away   × a.gif
Wed Feb 6   33 Maryland W, 73-69 69 66% Home   × b.gif
Sat Feb 9   13 Purdue L, 74-68 67 29% Away   × a.gif
Wed Feb 13   50 Minnesota W, 74-66 69 75% Home   × b.gif
Sat Feb 16   46 Northwestern W, 70-64 66 73% Home   × b.gif
Tue Feb 19   38 Penn St. L, 67-66 67 44% Away   × a.gif
Sat Feb 23   13 Purdue W, 72-71 67 54% Home   × a.gif
Thu Feb 28   7 Michigan L, 68-61 65 25% Away   × a.gif
Tue Mar 5   8 Michigan St. L, 76-69 70 26% Away   × a.gif
Sun Mar 10   32 Iowa W, 77-72 70 66% Home   × b.gif
Projected record: 20-11 11-9

What am I missing here....the projected outcomes of the games and the projected record don't add up.

HuskerActuary

HuskerActuary

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, nustudent said:

What am I missing here....the projected outcomes of the games and the projected record don't add up.

The 20-11 is the "average" projected record, which could be different than just looking at the game-by-game result. Here's a simple example:

 

Game 1: Nebraska 51% win probability

Game 2: Nebraska 51% win probability

 

 

The projected record would be 1-1, because it's far more likely that we lose one of those two games rather than win them both, even though we'd be favored in both.

big red22

big red22

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

So that’s a Q1 loss for Clemson right now. Think of that fellas... no matter where we play a team, we are a Q1 game.

True as it sits right now, but if the Big 10 chokes again in the Big 10/ACC challenge like we did last year that could all change.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, big red22 said:

True as it sits right now, but if the Big 10 chokes again in the Big 10/ACC challenge like we did last year that could all change.

 

Yes and No.  If we do our part and keep winning, we should be a Q1 team no

matter what.  But I get what you’re saying. A bad Big 10 showing makes us vulnerable to bad losses which would drop us.

 

Overall though, the Big 10 has shown well so far this year.  That’s a positive.

49r

49r

Posted
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Posted
2 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

Yes and No.  If we do our part and keep winning, we should be a Q1 team no

matter what.  But I get what you’re saying. A bad Big 10 showing makes us vulnerable to bad losses which would drop us.

 

Overall though, the Big 10 has shown well so far this year.  That’s a positive.

 

Right now, KenPom has the B1G going 7-7 in this thing and all of the B1G wins are pretty solid (57% or better) with Penn State sitting at 49% in their game tonight.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted

The Big 10 has also lost just 14 games.

 

Texas Tech (Neutral)

Arkansas (Road)

Kansas (Neutral)

Boston College (Road)

Fresno State (Neutral)

Virgina Tech (Neutral)

Virgina (Neutral)

Saint Johns (Home)

Depaul (Road)
Bradley (Neutral)

Gonzaga (Neutral)

Iowa State (Neutral)

Xavier (Neutral)

 

Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, big red22 said:

True as it sits right now, but if the Big 10 chokes again in the Big 10/ACC challenge like we did last year that could all change.

 

True, but that seems unlikely.  Big Ten teams are playing pretty well right now.

tcp

tcp

Posted
Posted

you have to love the Land of Small Sample Size. all sorts of insane possibilities! 

 

I'm just going to keep rooting my tail off for this wacky conference to keep playing good ball so we can get into that SEC-like Cycle of Virtuous Reinforcement where winning and losing no longer has any distinction. 

 

In the meantime, a week off from hoops is going to be tough. Already chomping at the premature conference games to start. 

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