Big Ten Tourney scenarios

[uneblinstu]

If Norm can look ahead, I can to.

 

Looking at some of the possible scenarios for the B1G tourney, it looks like the highest we could end up is the #7 seed, but that would involve winning out. The most likely scenario is that we end up in the 8-9 game. I'm coming up with OSU as the opponent quite a bit in that one. Finding OSU in that game would be probably the best option for NU. Michigan, MSU and Purdue are also possibilities for that one, none of which would be ideal.

 

http://bball.notnothing.net/b10bracket.php

[hskr4life]

I got us to the number 4 seed... Ya just have to get a little "creative"

Rutgers got on a roll haha

[royalfan]

I have started to think about this as well.  Given that it is so likely that we will be in that 8-9 contest, I am starting to shape rooting interest in other games to shape the best path. 

 

I agree that it seems like Ohio St. would be the best of the options for us to play against.  I am talking reasonable options here, not mathematically possible options.  I believe that Wisconsin or Michigan would be secondary target wishes.  No matter how you slice it, we are not likely to be favorites in this ball game.  But we will not be significant dogs against most of the clubs either.  Michigan St would be a horrific draw.  Purdue would be bad as well.  Close to fanbase.  Bad matchup problems for us. 

 

Given that we are likely to need to win the tournament to go to the NCAA tournament, I am equally concerned about who the one seed is.  I realize that some may not agree, based on some recent game outcomes, but I believe that we would want Indiana to be the one seed.  I think Iowa is the best team in the conference and we have some tough matchups in that game as well.  Indiana will have large crowd, but I think it is still better than playing Iowa.  Maryland is somewhere in between IMO.  As for the 4-5 clubs, I would love them to be Wisconsin and Michigan.  Neither team if that much better than we are. 

 

A path of Ohio St, Indiana, Michigan(or Wisconsin) followed by whoever comes from other side does not seem completely overwhelming to me. 

[FredsSlacks]

these scenarios get us to 20 wins. would that be enough to make the ncaa tourney?

 

-win the next 5 games + 1 in the B1G tourney

 

-win 4 out of 5 games + 2 in the B1G tourney

 

-Win 3 out of 5 + 3 in the B1G tourney

[hskr4life]

I want to say 20 wins gets us in... But I just don't know. We would be reallllly close and it would depend on other upsets and bids taken I think. I would be hard to leave out a 20 win 11-7 Big 10 team though.

[49r]

Gonna be tough to get to 20 wins:

 

Final Record — Expected RPI — Probability

19-12 ————- 101.1 ————— 0.58%

18-13 ————- 116.0 ————— 6.58%

17-14 ————- 131.6 ————— 24.55%

16-15 ————- 146.9 ————— 37.67%

15-16 ————- 161.7 ————— 24.57%

14-17 ————- 177.0 ————— 6.04%

[PimpMario]

I want to say 20 wins gets us in... But I just don't know. We would be reallllly close and it would depend on other upsets and bids taken I think. I would be hard to leave out a 20 win 11-7 Big 10 team though.

The committee doesn't look at conference record. As in it is literally not on their information packets.

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[royalfan]

 

I want to say 20 wins gets us in... But I just don't know. We would be reallllly close and it would depend on other upsets and bids taken I think. I would be hard to leave out a 20 win 11-7 Big 10 team though.

The committee doesn't look at conference record. As in it is literally not on their information packets.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

I think you take things you hear as being gospel a little too much regarding the selection process. And in this case, I believe you are flat out wrong.  Every nitty gritty report replication that I have ever seen, which is a report that the selection folks have at their disposal, does include conference record.  Since they are only replications, and not the actual report, it is possible that every place that replicates the report has always been wrong though.  But it is very naive to suggest they committee has no idea what teams conference records are.  If nothing else, it is a quick indication of how a team played the 2nd half of the season. 

[PimpMario]

I want to say 20 wins gets us in... But I just don't know. We would be reallllly close and it would depend on other upsets and bids taken I think. I would be hard to leave out a 20 win 11-7 Big 10 team though.

The committee doesn't look at conference record. As in it is literally not on their information packets.

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I think you take things you hear as being gospel a little too much regarding the selection process. And in this case, I believe you are flat out wrong. Every nitty gritty report replication that I have ever seen, which is a report that the selection folks have at their disposal, does include conference record. Since they are only replications, and not the actual report, it is possible that every place that replicates the report has always been wrong though. But it is very naive to suggest they committee has no idea what teams conference records are. If nothing else, it is a quick indication of how a team played the 2nd half of the season.

You might be right and I might be wrong. But the committee chair has repeatedly said conference finish and record don't matter. It's how you beat and lose to. However there is a sentiment that teams from certain conferences are going to be favored over teams that aren't. It is common to hear "if we do this well in conference." You can't just look at total number of wins in conference.

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[Huskerone]

I would love to just finish strong, however that looks.  I'll never forget that game against Wichita State in the NIT.  That was a demoralized team/program.  I never want to be there again.

[AuroranHusker]

If the season ended today... B1G tourney seeds:

 

WEDNESDAY (MARCH 9)

Game 1: No. 13 Rutgers vs. No. 12 Illinois

Game 2: No. 14 Minnesota vs. No. 11 Penn State

 

THURSDAY (MARCH 10)

Game 3: No. 9 Nebraska vs. No. 8 Ohio State

Game 4: Game 1 winner vs. No. 5 Wisconsin

Game 5: No. 10 Northwestern vs. No. 7 Michigan State

Game 6: Game 2 winner vs. No. 6 Purdue

 

FRIDAY (MARCH 11)

Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. No. 1 Iowa

Game 8: vs. Game 4 winner vs. No. 4 Michigan

Game 9: vs. Game 5 winner vs. No. 2 Indiana

Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. No. 3 Maryland

 

SATURDAY (MARCH 12)

Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner

Game 12: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner

 

SUNDAY (MARCH 13)

Game 13: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner

 

http://btn.com/2016/02/16/big-ten-tourney-bracket-heres-what-it-would-like-if-season-ended-today

[uneblinstu]

That is probably the ideal scenario for NU at this point.

[royalfan]

looking increasingly likely iowa will be 1 seed.  Tough potential match up for us if we made 2nd round.  Ohio St. about the best we can hope for in the first round it would seem.(assuming we are in the 8-9 game)

[royalfan]

That is probably the ideal scenario for NU at this point.

Personally prefer anyone but Iowa on the 1 line. 

[huskerbaseball13]

 

 

I want to say 20 wins gets us in... But I just don't know. We would be reallllly close and it would depend on other upsets and bids taken I think. I would be hard to leave out a 20 win 11-7 Big 10 team though.

The committee doesn't look at conference record. As in it is literally not on their information packets.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

I think you take things you hear as being gospel a little too much regarding the selection process. And in this case, I believe you are flat out wrong.  Every nitty gritty report replication that I have ever seen, which is a report that the selection folks have at their disposal, does include conference record.  Since they are only replications, and not the actual report, it is possible that every place that replicates the report has always been wrong though.  But it is very naive to suggest they committee has no idea what teams conference records are.  If nothing else, it is a quick indication of how a team played the 2nd half of the season. 

 

 

Below is taken from Shatel's recent article with Bruce Rasmussen who is on the selection committee

 

Number of conference wins: “It doesn’t come up. It’s hard to measure because it goes from league to league. Again, if you’re in a good league, and you win 10 games, you more than likely have some good wins.

“But I go back to the Big Ten. Until this week, Indiana had not played any of the other top five teams in the Big Ten: Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa or Purdue. And they only play those teams a total of five times, whereas Wisconsin plays them nine times.

“It’s hard to get a read on number of league wins with all the unbalanced schedules.”

 

http://www.omaha.com/sports/shatel-february-is-fun-month-for-ncaa-hoops-hopefuls-with/article_93face11-ad61-51ee-9253-277e83dece00.html

[royalfan]

LOL.  Did he say that the information is not staring him right in the face on the nitty gritty report?  Obviously, they have access to conference records.  Nowhere, did anyone say it is a primary tool for selection. 

[huskerbaseball13]

LOL.  Did he say that the information is not staring him right in the face on the nitty gritty report?  Obviously, they have access to conference records.  Nowhere, did anyone say it is a primary tool for selection. 

 

The article is linked....I don't believe he mentioned what is on their nitty gritty report.  He indicated that conference record does not come up in the discussion.  But, most cases...if you have a solid record in a power conference you likely have some good wins and a good resume.  Obviously they have access to conference records...I'm sure Bruce has a computer or phone to access the records if it's not on his nitty gritty report.  They may have access in their meetings, but it does not sound like conference record is part of the criteria in picking teams. 

[huskerbaseball13]

Behind the Scenes: How the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Really Works

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2387936-behind-the-scenes-how-the-ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-really-works

 

"Likewise, they said, a conference's overall RPI would never be brought up, nor would where teams finished in their conference standings. Conference record doesn't even appear on the "nitty-gritty sheets" (similarly formatted to ESPN's) that committee members use for overviews of teams. So any time you hear someone talking about a team needing to get to .500 in Big 12 play or needing 12 Big Ten wins to get in, feel free to ignore it."

[royalfan]

 

LOL.  Did he say that the information is not staring him right in the face on the nitty gritty report?  Obviously, they have access to conference records.  Nowhere, did anyone say it is a primary tool for selection. 

 

The article is linked....I don't believe he mentioned what is on their nitty gritty report.  He indicated that conference record does not come up in the discussion.  But, most cases...if you have a solid record in a power conference you likely have some good wins and a good resume.  Obviously they have access to conference records...I'm sure Bruce has a computer or phone to access the records if it's not on his nitty gritty report.  They may have access in their meetings, but it does not sound like conference record is part of the criteria in picking teams. 

 

You quoted my response to Pimp though did you not?  Where I said he was wrong about them "literally not having that information in their packets".  It seemed like you were making an ill fated attempt to prove me wrong on something.  It didn't work, They do have that information available.  Just like they have the RPI available and that isn't very important either. 

[huskerbaseball13]

 

 

LOL.  Did he say that the information is not staring him right in the face on the nitty gritty report?  Obviously, they have access to conference records.  Nowhere, did anyone say it is a primary tool for selection. 

 

The article is linked....I don't believe he mentioned what is on their nitty gritty report.  He indicated that conference record does not come up in the discussion.  But, most cases...if you have a solid record in a power conference you likely have some good wins and a good resume.  Obviously they have access to conference records...I'm sure Bruce has a computer or phone to access the records if it's not on his nitty gritty report.  They may have access in their meetings, but it does not sound like conference record is part of the criteria in picking teams. 

 

You quoted my response to Pimp though did you not?  Where I said he was wrong about them "literally not having that information in their packets".  It seemed like you were making an ill fated attempt to prove me wrong on something.  It didn't work, They do have that information available.  Just like they have the RPI available and that isn't very important either. 

 

 

Not really trying to prove you wrong....just looking to get the correct information out there.  But, per the below article you are wrong.  FYI, I don't really care if it's on their nitty gritty report or not....I believe it's more important to know they don't use conference record in their criteria of picking teams....which is what I think Pimp was really trying to get at. 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2387936-behind-the-scenes-how-the-ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-really-works

[hhcmatt]

 

 

LOL.  Did he say that the information is not staring him right in the face on the nitty gritty report?  Obviously, they have access to conference records.  Nowhere, did anyone say it is a primary tool for selection. 

 

The article is linked....I don't believe he mentioned what is on their nitty gritty report.  He indicated that conference record does not come up in the discussion.  But, most cases...if you have a solid record in a power conference you likely have some good wins and a good resume.  Obviously they have access to conference records...I'm sure Bruce has a computer or phone to access the records if it's not on his nitty gritty report.  They may have access in their meetings, but it does not sound like conference record is part of the criteria in picking teams. 

 

You quoted my response to Pimp though did you not?  Where I said he was wrong about them "literally not having that information in their packets".  It seemed like you were making an ill fated attempt to prove me wrong on something.  It didn't work, They do have that information available.  Just like they have the RPI available and that isn't very important either. 

 

 

At the end of the day you both are saying that having x-x for a conference record doesn't really mean anything. Thus the statement of "If we end up with a x-x record in the B1G will get us into the tournament" isn't a statement one can make without the context of your overall record and schedule.

[hskr4life]

For all we know... we do not know what they use.  We only know what we think we know because that is what they tell us.

[hhcmatt]

For all we know... we do not know what they use.  We only know what we think we know because that is what they tell us.

 

 

[royalfan]

Baseball, you are certainly trying to prove me wrong.  You are going to great lengths for some reason.  And you still haven't and never will.  They have the information.  That article is comical.  The link to the ESPN nitty gritty team link that they claim does not have conference record on it, has conference record on it.  Obviously, the selection folks have access to conference records and they obviously have access to RPI.  It is also obvious that neither one is very important at all in determining the field.  But to blanket claim it is never used is kind of silly.  There are times when it makes a lot of sense to use conference record in comparing two teams from the same conference, especially in leagues where there is a balanced schedule. 

 

Do you have any thoughts on Big 10 tourney bracket?  I have shared some before this idiotic argument of acting like the selection committee do not have conference records available to them. 

[hskr4life]

And what started this whole thing... And it states right in the article... That a good conference record means you'll probably have some good wins. So as I said 20 wins and an 11-7 record or whatever I would think gets us in... That would mean winning our last 5 which gives us 3 road wins and 2 quality wins. So they may not look at conference records, but if you have a better conference record... Your most likely getting the nod because of wins.