Bracket Watch

hhctony · February 4, 2015

I'm not smart enough to really do much more than is out there for you guys to see for yourself, but I thought we could make a thread that hhcdimes could pin to talk about teams and resume. I think it would be best to do it much like the Bubble Watch that ESPN's Eamon Brennan does. I think it's fantastic. Another useful tool that I like is the BPI and a link to their stuff is here. In addition, I think you can do some analysis of the NIT here as well if you like.

That said, I see this for the way 2015 will shake out from a general perspective. I think you have 11 multiple bid leagues this year with 32 conference receiving automatic bids and 36 at-large bids for the tournament. So, in theory, you have 47 spots up for grabs at this time. I don't give away the locks as easily as the Bubble Watch. I'll start a list below.

As for Nebraska, the Incarnate Word loss is a killer and with our current RPI/BPI, I think 20-wins will be the minimum, but you never know. That means seven wins and a minimum of nine games left. So, you do the math. It will be a tough row. I think 17 would get us to the NIT and 18 would get us there comfortably. Quite frankly, playing games is still important.

I'll try to update the LOCK list as much as I can. My locks are teams that can lose the rest of their games and still make the tournament. Also, I'll try to have a "next up" list of about the next ten teams prepared as well.

LOCK LIST (23): Kentucky (SEC), Virginia (ACC), Gonzaga (WCC), Wisconsin (Big Ten), Arizona (Pac-12), Villanova (Big East), Duke (ACC), Kansas (Big 12), Notre Dame (ACC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Louisville (ACC), Utah (Pac-12), Maryland (Big Ten), North Carolina (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big 12), Wichita State (MVC), Butler (Big East), Iowa State (Big 12), Michigan State (Big Ten), Baylor (Big 12), West Virginia (Big 12), Arkansas (SEC).

NEXT UP: Lots of junk in the middle of the bracket. Atlantic 10 is a mess. Mountain West is a mess. Both leagues could take up 6-8 spots and a probalby deserving. Same with the American. Could see a ton of those teams here. Also curious to see how the committee values Murray State and Stephen F Austin.

ONE BID LEAGUES (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC.

hskr4life · February 4, 2015

Syracuse is officially off the board as a bubble team as they are under self imposed post season ban

49r · February 4, 2015

If they had not pulled out that game last night against VT, postseason might have been in question for Syracuse anyway.

hhctony · February 5, 2015

Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

I'd say the next team to get in will be the winner of the Duke, Notre Dame game at Cameron on Saturday. In addition, I'd advance Villanova into the field with a win over Georgetown this weekend.

My Big Ten S-Curve (for tournament merit)

Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa, Purdue (all teams I'd have in)

Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota (outside still alive)

hhcmatt · February 5, 2015

Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

hhctony · February 5, 2015

Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

If they just win out at home and go 10-8 there best wins would be all at home (Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State). You are a correct, some kind of win against a good team would help. That record won't do. Remember, Nebraska landed a road pelt with Sparty last year and a home win with a top-8 national seed Wisconsin. Purdue would have non of that. This could be a team that is passable. Winning there would be nice (if we first win at Penn State and somehow knock off Wisconsin). I know that's not anything to difficult to ask for.

In addition, I'm curious what an 18-12 (11-7) Michigan team looks like. It would be loaded with wins as well, but nothing great if things go as I think.

bball23 · February 5, 2015

Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

See, I do think it will cut it and I'll tell you why. If you watch College Bball on a nightly basis, SO many teams are beating each other. Basketball has about 7 really dominant teams this year, and then after that on any given night anybody is beating anybody. I think this is a year where we see a lot of teams dancing with 10-13 losses on their schedule (depending on who the losses are too). As pointed out, that Incarnate game is haunting to this team! That game still sickens me.

hhctony · February 5, 2015

See, I do think it will cut it and I'll tell you why. If you watch College Bball on a nightly basis, SO many teams are beating each other. Basketball has about 7 really dominant teams this year, and then after that on any given night anybody is beating anybody. I think this is a year where we see a lot of teams dancing with 10-13 losses on their schedule (depending on who the losses are too). As pointed out, that Incarnate game is haunting to this team! That game still sickens me.

A very real possibility. I agree. The last about 10 teams is always very interesting to me.

hhcmatt · February 5, 2015

See, I do think it will cut it and I'll tell you why. If you watch College Bball on a nightly basis, SO many teams are beating each other. Basketball has about 7 really dominant teams this year, and then after that on any given night anybody is beating anybody. I think this is a year where we see a lot of teams dancing with 10-13 losses on their schedule (depending on who the losses are too). As pointed out, that Incarnate game is haunting to this team! That game still sickens me.

College basketball is always different but always the same.

At 19-12 Purdue is a fringe team. They have home losses to Gardner Webb and North Florida to go with no impressive road wins. They do have some good home wins. There will be 19-12 team(s) that make the tourney...I just think they'll be more impressive than Purdue. I think Illinois at 19-12 (9-9) would get the nod over Purdue, for example. They play each other on the last weekend of conference play in what could very well be a tourney play-in game.

huskerbaseball13 · February 5, 2015

Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

Right now...according to Palm who updated his bubble watch we are a "bad loss." But win the next two and that will change.

AuroranHusker · February 5, 2015

Miles tweeted at (trolled) Palm the other day, and they went back-and-forth in a goodnatured fashion. Miles is a funny guy, he figured Palm would suggest that NU win a road game as a 'key' to their chances... Palm countered that he didn't want NU to win the 1 Palm was going to attend at Purdue.

bball23 · February 6, 2015

Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble. People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night. I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me. How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left? Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

Its why we call it March Madness! I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

hskr4life · February 6, 2015

Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble. People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night. I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me. How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left? Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

Its why we call it March Madness! I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out. If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.

hhctony · February 6, 2015

Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble. People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night. I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me. How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left? Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

Its why we call it March Madness! I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out. If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.

At this point, that's correct. I'd add Penn State there are as well. Those three teams are the only ones done in the Big Ten right now. See above.

AuroranHusker · February 6, 2015

Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble. People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night. I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me. How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left? Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

Its why we call it March Madness! I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out. If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.

At this point, that's correct. I'd add Penn State there are as well. Those three teams are the only ones done in the Big Ten right now. See above.

Nebraska needs to make sure PSU is 'out' after this weekend...

hhcmatt · February 6, 2015

Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble. People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night. I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me. How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left? Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

Its why we call it March Madness! I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out. If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.

Let's define some things

Lock - Team that will make the tournament given games already played. An assumption is made that a historic collapse would be needed for the team to not make the tourney.

Out - Team that probably won't make the tourney given games already played. An assumption is made that anywhere from an unexpected to a historic run or conference tourney championship would be needed to make the tourney.

Bubble Team - Team's current record plus projected finish places team in or almost in the tournament

The Bubble - The list of teams projected to finish between Lock and Out Status. As the number of games remaining decreases and the error of projection decreases, the bubble shrinks.

You can further define the teams that are currently out with 'Bubble Team Potential' but trying to cherry pick teams and project the unexpected makes an already hypothetical exercise even less meaningful.

hhctony · February 10, 2015

I have added Duke and Villanova to the LOCK section and added Wichita State and Butler to the NEXT UP section.

hhctony · February 16, 2015

I have added Kansas to the LOCK section. Next four to lock with wins are ND, Utah, Louisville and Northern Iowa in my opinion.

AuroranHusker · February 16, 2015

Big Ten now projected to have 8 teams 'in' by USA Today. Interesting to see Minnesota at 5-8 in conference on the bubble w/ Purdue & Illinois among "Last Four In" at this point...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2015/02/16/tournament-bubble-tracker-big-ten-teams-wisconsin-indiana-maryland-ohio-state/23468631/

hhcmatt · February 16, 2015

Big Ten now projected to have 8 teams 'in' by USA Today. Interesting to see Minnesota at 5-8 in conference on the bubble w/ Purdue & Illinois among "Last Four In" at this point...

Minnesota probably gets 18 wins np with wins over NW and Penn St at home With their overall body of work all they need to do is win 2 out of the other 3 vs Wisconsin (Home and Away) and Michigan St (Away).

They seem like a team poised to defend their NIT title.

hhctony · February 19, 2015

I have added Notre Dame and Northern Iowa to the LOCK section. In addition, I have added what I think to be the 19 ONE-BID LEAGUES to the original post. We can have open debate about the Horizion League for a couple of weeks.

hhctony · February 24, 2015

Added Louisville and Utah to the LOCK list.

huskerbaseball13 · February 25, 2015

8 Big Ten teams in Lunardi's bracket as of this morning. Just goes to show the luxury of being in this conference. Even on a perceived "down year" for the Big Ten.

hhctony · February 25, 2015

I am going to say Iowa State is in if they beat Baylor tonight, Ohio State if they beat us tomorrow. Still think Wichita State needs Northern Iowa to feel safe, crazy as that sounds.

hhctony · March 3, 2015

Whole bunch of updates. I'll try to take a look daily from here until Selection Sunday.

Sign In

Bracket Watch

Recommended Posts

hhctony

hskr4life

49r

hhctony

hhcmatt

hhctony

bball23

hhctony

hhcmatt

huskerbaseball13

AuroranHusker

bball23

hskr4life

hhctony

AuroranHusker

hhcmatt

hhctony

hhctony

AuroranHusker

hhcmatt

hhctony

hhctony

huskerbaseball13

hhctony

hhctony

Join the conversation

Similar Content

Keisei watch 1 2 3 4 17

B1G bracket generator

Lincoln watch party?

2023-2024 HHC March Madness Bracket Challenge

2023-2024 HHC March Madness Bracket Challenge

Recently Browsing 0 members

Other

Schedule

MBB Roster

Activity