2014 Big Ten Tournament Thread

[Omaha Nebrasketballer]

Come on Purdue. Lets go to OT!

[Omaha Nebrasketballer]

Whoa, thought that was going in

[Norm Peterson]

That was CLOSE.  I did not want to play Purdue and risk losing to an outside of top 100 team.  Now, we get to face an Ohio State team that seems a bit depleted.  This win had to take a little out of them.  I know they're college students but it's still not THAT easy to just turn around and play again.

 

Beat the Buckeyes!

[GATA]

That was CLOSE.  I did not want to play Purdue and risk losing to an outside of top 100 team.  Now, we get to face an Ohio State team that seems a bit depleted.  This win had to take a little out of them.  I know they're college students but it's still not THAT easy to just turn around and play again.

 

Beat the Buckeyes!

Agreed. Honestly, I was scared to death to play Purdue. Too much downside.

[49r]

This is the first time our first opponent in the BTT is NOT Purdue.

 

We've never played anyone BUT Purdue or Ohio State in the BTT.

[big red22]

 

Illinois up 6-0 early

 

 

Am I the only one who thinks he looks like Rick Moranis from Ghostbusters here?

[HuskerCager]

Hopefully we hang with the Buckeyes the first half.  Generally the team who played the night before has the advantage of momemtum carrying over to the first half of the 2nd game.  Then fatigue sets in the 2nd half.

[AuroranHusker]

That was CLOSE.  I did not want to play Purdue and risk losing to an outside of top 100 team.  Now, we get to face an Ohio State team that seems a bit depleted.  This win had to take a little out of them.  I know they're college students but it's still not THAT easy to just turn around and play again.

 

Beat the Buckeyes!

 

 

That's all well & good, but NU had a better shot to beat a Purdue on the way to the BTT championship.  Oh well, it didn't happen.

 

The really scary part is Ohio State got their "stinker" game out of their system, and the Buckeyes have either been 1st or 2nd in BTT in FIVE CONSECUTIVE SEASONS!

[Norm Peterson]

I agree with the folks saying it looks like Ohio State expended a lot of energy to get the win.  I know people talk about these being young, college athletes in superb condition, but there's still at least some kind of marginal advantage to the team that's rested.

 

And, just going by statistical probabilities, Ohio State has an obscene win/loss record in the last few Big Ten tournaments.  They are long overdue for a loss.

[AuroranHusker]

I agree with the folks saying it looks like Ohio State expended a lot of energy to get the win.  I know people talk about these being young, college athletes in superb condition, but there's still at least some kind of marginal advantage to the team that's rested.

 

And, just going by statistical probabilities, Ohio State has an obscene win/loss record in the last few Big Ten tournaments.  They are long overdue for a loss.

 

Or, it could be that a tourney-tested team can make plays to win ballgames even when not performing well, especially the crafty Aaron Craft in crunch time.  As you know Norm, there's always two sides of a coin on this type of stuff..

[Cookie Belcher]

And, just going by statistical probabilities, Ohio State has an obscene win/loss record in the last few Big Ten tournaments. They are long overdue for a loss.

That isn't how statistical probabilities work. Winning in their past outcomes does not increase the probability of a loss in the next game.

If you flip a coin 10 times and each time it is heads, there is still a 50/50 chance that the next flip is heads. The next flip is independent of prior flips.

[49r]

 

That was CLOSE.  I did not want to play Purdue and risk losing to an outside of top 100 team.  Now, we get to face an Ohio State team that seems a bit depleted.  This win had to take a little out of them.  I know they're college students but it's still not THAT easy to just turn around and play again.

 

Beat the Buckeyes!

 

 

That's all well & good, but NU had a better shot to beat a Purdue on the way to the BTT championship.  Oh well, it didn't happen.

 

The really scary part is Ohio State got their "stinker" game out of their system, and the Buckeyes have either been 1st or 2nd in BTT in FIVE CONSECUTIVE SEASONS!

 

 

They were never playing a team that had a day's rest on them though in all 5 years.

 

#2 seed in 2013

#3 seed in 2012

#1 seed in 2011

#1 seed in 2010

#5 seed in 2009 (but they had a first round bye because there were only 11 teams, #5 and #4 got first round byes and played each other)

[49r]

[AuroranHusker]

They were never playing a team that had a day's rest on them though in all 5 years.

 

#2 seed in 2013

#3 seed in 2012

#1 seed in 2011

#1 seed in 2010

#5 seed in 2009 (but they had a first round bye because there were only 11 teams, #5 and #4 got first round byes and played each other)

 

 

That is very true.  Still, it worries me because I tend to roll with tourney-tested teams in games that seem to be officiated to assist the Mattas of the world (hope I'm very wrong about that assumption!).  Time will tell, as it always does, but this game still scares me because guys like Craft tend to get away w/ a lot of fouls anyways; and I want NU to WIN the tournament to keep the train rollin' toward the Big Dance victory dancin'!!

[Cookie Belcher]

I'm not worried about Ohio State as I believe we can beat anyone right now. I just preferred Purdue as they would have been easier to beat and I would have welcomed an easier game considering we will likely have to play Michigan on Saturday and Wisconsin/MSU on Sunday if we make it there. Adding Ohio State before those two makes it a pretty tough run.

[49r]

Even if we lose to Ohio State, Auroran, it's a loss against the #22 RPI team, which won't hurt us.

 

And while Purdue is a much easier opponent, taking a chance on a loss vs. them (#140) would be disaster.  And even a win would probably not help any.

 

Also remember, Indianapolis is a virtual home game for Purdue, it's like if we played the BTT in Omaha.

[AuroranHusker]

I'm not worried about Ohio State as I believe we can beat anyone right now. I just preferred Purdue as they would have been easier to beat and I would have welcomed an easier game considering we will likely have to play Michigan on Saturday and Wisconsin/MSU on Sunday if we make it there. Adding Ohio State before those two makes it a pretty tough run.

 

True dat... Matta & crew still worry me, for some reason. Maybe it's more the recent success that Matta has had in tournament action, BTT or NCAA.

[AuroranHusker]

Even if we lose to Ohio State, Auroran, it's a loss against the #22 RPI team, which won't hurt us.

 

And while Purdue is a much easier opponent, taking a chance on a loss vs. them (#140) would be disaster.  And even a win would probably not help any.

 

Also remember, Indianapolis is a virtual home game for Purdue, it's like if we played the BTT in Omaha.

 

But, 9er, I really want NU to win the whole enchilada! 

 

 

Which means I rooted for Purdue & I'll be rooting for the Illini too. Make the road a little smoother for the Big Red to roll through the BTT.

[Norm Peterson]

 

And, just going by statistical probabilities, Ohio State has an obscene win/loss record in the last few Big Ten tournaments. They are long overdue for a loss.

That isn't how statistical probabilities work. Winning in their past outcomes does not increase the probability of a loss in the next game.

If you flip a coin 10 times and each time it is heads, there is still a 50/50 chance that the next flip is heads. The next flip is independent of prior flips.

 

Maybe not to YOU, a math guy.

 

But to ME, an average Joe, I look at it like this:

 

Winning streaks are difficult to sustain.  Longer ones happen less often than shorter ones for that very reason.  And REALLY long ones are quite rare.  The longer a winning streak lasts, the more likely it ends the next game.  So, even though you're probably technically right, there still have to be odds against a sustained streak.  What's the likelihood of flipping a coin heads 10 times in a row?  Probably not very high.  So, if you flip heads 9 times, I'll probably bet tails on the 10th.

 

Their success in conference tournaments over the last several years is disproportionate to their performance otherwise.  They're due for a loss and we're just the team to give it to them.

[Omaha Nebrasketballer]

Bring on the buckeyes. Not scared of them at all. We got this.

[Norm Peterson]

Winning the enchilada would be nice.  I'd rather make the dance and win a game there than hope for an opportunity to play for a Big Ten title.  Tomorrow is for seeding and pride.  The only goal I have any concern for right now is getting into the dance and winning when we get there.  I want this monkey off our backs in 2014 and not a year longer.

[AuroranHusker]

Winning the enchilada would be nice.  I'd rather make the dance and win a game there than hope for an opportunity to play for a Big Ten title.  Tomorrow is for seeding and pride.  The only goal I have any concern for right now is getting into the dance and winning when we get there.  I want this monkey off our backs in 2014 and not a year longer.

 

Perhaps I'm a little more greedy, I want NU to win a bunch now & win a bunch later! 

[doc1394]

And, just going by statistical probabilities, Ohio State has an obscene win/loss record in the last few Big Ten tournaments. They are long overdue for a loss.

That isn't how statistical probabilities work. Winning in their past outcomes does not increase the probability of a loss in the next game.

If you flip a coin 10 times and each time it is heads, there is still a 50/50 chance that the next flip is heads. The next flip is independent of prior flips.

Multiple coin flips are completely independent.

However, this factors in momentum, tiredness, skill level. That's more of a conditional probability. So yes, the probabilities would change

[49r]

 

Even if we lose to Ohio State, Auroran, it's a loss against the #22 RPI team, which won't hurt us.

 

And while Purdue is a much easier opponent, taking a chance on a loss vs. them (#140) would be disaster.  And even a win would probably not help any.

 

Also remember, Indianapolis is a virtual home game for Purdue, it's like if we played the BTT in Omaha.

 

But, 9er, I really want NU to win the whole enchilada! 

 

 

Which means I rooted for Purdue & I'll be rooting for the Illini too. Make the road a little smoother for the Big Red to roll through the BTT.

 

 

Nah, give me Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin.  If we're gonna win, I want to win in style!

[Norm Peterson]

All I really care about is playing on Saturday and finding out Sunday where we'll be playing Thursday or Friday.