Scouting Northwestern

[hhcmatt]

Decided about 7 games ago after getting killed by Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa that they would start playing some Doc ball.  They won 5 close games including 3 road games.  They also were beat down by Iowa again at home.  The team isn't magically more talented...they're just play a style of ball that can negate the talent difference.

 

The only "true" point guard on the team, Dave Sobolewski, has played 11 minutes in the last 7 games due to injury.  NW has embraced the concept of "combo guards"  Drew Crawford is their 2012-13 Dylan Talley.

 

Everyone on the team shoots 3s though not well.  They're shooting 26.5% in conference play.

 

They're winning by defense and tempo...they're #1 in conference in eFG% defense and average just over 61.2 possessions per game.  Forget offensive rebounds...they're too busy getting back to stop any sort of fast break.

[Silverbacked1]

Hopefully we drive a bunch and not rely on the 3 so much.

I think it was Purdue that got them in foul trouble, they did lose but...

[throwback]

The games I've seen where they have success is when they're able to sucker the opponent into playing the slow it down, ugly it up type of game. It's going to take more discipline and maturity than we've shown on the road so far to avoid playing to NW's tempo & strengths. As was said above, can't settle for 15 or 20 3-pt shots. Have to "love the rim."

 

The guy that always seems to come through late in possessions is Demps. Have to find a way to keep him from throwing in shots at the shot clock buzzer without fouling. It'll be interesting to see if we go big on him with Petteway or small with Parker.

 

Having said that NW has been very lucky in a few of their Big Ten wins. Minny missed a driving layup and then a point blank putback that would've won the game in the closing seconds. NW had 3 post players foul out vs Purdue, yet the Boilers somehow didn't find Hammond in the OTs and lost.

 

I have a good feeling about tomorrow - I think we play well ... so you can book a W. 

[HuskerActuary]

So, should we all tweet at the coaches to let them know if we press Northwestern, they'll turn the ball over? 

[throwback]

Looks like the early, early line has NW minus-2. We'll see if that holds when more books come online, but with NU's problems playing on the road, that number sounds about right to me.

[HB]

Looks like the early, early line has NW minus-2. We'll see if that holds when more books come online, but with NU's problems playing on the road, that number sounds about right to me.

 

I like it.  With us coming off a blowout loss, the road issues you mention, and Northwestern's recent success, one could expect it to be higher.  I like our chances if we can get any kind of a whistle at all.

[hhcmatt]

So, should we all tweet at the coaches to let them know if we press Northwestern, they'll turn the ball over? 

 

Actually the one of the few things Northwestern isn't awful about on offense.

 

BTW, last week was the first 7 day "bye week" for Northwestern in the conference.  Does this help them, hurt them, or not effect them?

[HB]

 

So, should we all tweet at the coaches to let them know if we press Northwestern, they'll turn the ball over? 

 

Actually the one of the few things Northwestern isn't awful about on offense.

 

BTW, last week was the first 7 day "bye week" for Northwestern in the conference.  Does this help them, hurt them, or not effect them?

 

 

While they have time to get rested, which should help some given their lack of depth, and more time to prep for us, I think overall it hurts them.  When you're hot, you want to keep playing. 

[49r]

Northewestern (#110) KenPom rundown 2-7-14.

=======================================

 

Non-Conference (7-6):
306. Eastern Illinois - W (72-55)
35. @Stanford - L (58-71)
143. Illinois State - L (64-68)

283. @UIC - W (93-58)

 

---Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational---

326. IUPUI - W (63-61)
252. Gardner-Webb - W (72-59)

48. Missouri - L (67-78)
21. UCLA - L (79-95)

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
87. @NC State - L (48-69)

 

161. Western Michigan - W (51-35)
334. Mississippi Valley State - W (86-64)
168. Brown - W (58-52)

149. DePaul - L (56-57)

 

B1G (5-5):

17. Wisconsin - L (49-76)

14. @Michigan - L (51-74)

11. @Iowa - L (67-93)

84. Illinois - W (49-43)

12. Michigan State - L (40-54)

54. @Indiana - W (54-47)

102. Purdue - W (63-60 2OT)

11. Iowa - L (50-76)

17. @Wisconsin - W (65-56)

41. @Minnestota - W (55-54)

 

[tcp]

SO basically you're saying this is PSU round 2. They did the same thing to us, and we joyfully lept into a slowish half court game. If PSU can sucker us into losing hoops, I have to believe Northwestern is way better at it. Well, at least we're going to know how opposing fans felt playing us for 6 years.

[hhcmatt]

SO basically you're saying this is PSU round 2. 

 

Sort of.  Northwestern makes PSU look like Iowa in terms of tempo.

Northwestern is the Purple NyQuill of B1G teams.

The funny thing though is I'd be a lot more concerned about this game if I thought they would bring back their old 1-3-1 zone.

[Silverbacked1]

Northewestern (#110) KenPom rundown 2-7-14.

=======================================

 

Non-Conference (7-6):

306. Eastern Illinois - W (72-55)

35. @Stanford - L (58-71)

143. Illinois State - L (64-68)

283. @UIC - W (93-58)

 

---Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational---

326. IUPUI - W (63-61)

252. Gardner-Webb - W (72-59)

48. Missouri - L (67-78)

21. UCLA - L (79-95)

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

87. @NC State - L (48-69)

 

161. Western Michigan - W (51-35)

334. Mississippi Valley State - W (86-64)

168. Brown - W (58-52)

149. DePaul - L (56-57)

 

B1G (5-5):

17. Wisconsin - L (49-76)

14. @Michigan - L (51-74)

11. @Iowa - L (67-93)

84. Illinois - W (49-43)

12. Michigan State - L (40-54)

54. @Indiana - W (54-47)

102. Purdue - W (63-60 2OT)

11. Iowa - L (50-76)

17. @Wisconsin - W (65-56)

41. @Minnestota - W (55-54)

When they lose they lose big don't they?

[Noah121]

 

Northewestern (#110) KenPom rundown 2-7-14.

=======================================

 

Non-Conference (7-6):

306. Eastern Illinois - W (72-55)

35. @Stanford - L (58-71)

143. Illinois State - L (64-68)

283. @UIC - W (93-58)

 

---Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational---

326. IUPUI - W (63-61)

252. Gardner-Webb - W (72-59)

48. Missouri - L (67-78)

21. UCLA - L (79-95)

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

87. @NC State - L (48-69)

 

161. Western Michigan - W (51-35)

334. Mississippi Valley State - W (86-64)

168. Brown - W (58-52)

149. DePaul - L (56-57)

 

B1G (5-5):

17. Wisconsin - L (49-76)

14. @Michigan - L (51-74)

11. @Iowa - L (67-93)

84. Illinois - W (49-43)

12. Michigan State - L (40-54)

54. @Indiana - W (54-47)

102. Purdue - W (63-60 2OT)

11. Iowa - L (50-76)

17. @Wisconsin - W (65-56)

41. @Minnestota - W (55-54)

When they lose they lose big don't they?

 

Since the Illinois game, when the 'Cats first debuted their new game philosophy, the 14-point loss against Michigan State was closer than the score indicated.

 

I wasn't able to get to the Iowa game in Evanston, but from what I heard, Northwestern was simply outclassed in all aspects in that game.

[Bugeaters1]

 

SO basically you're saying this is PSU round 2. 

 

Sort of.  Northwestern makes PSU look like Iowa in terms of tempo.

Northwestern is the Purple NyQuil of B1G teams.

The funny thing though is I'd be a lot more concerned about this game if I thought they would bring back their old 1-3-1 zone.

 

I read in one of these Northwestern forums that NW isn't a very good rebounding team due to them getting back on D. So if that's the case do the Huskers zone NW ? or do they man it up ?

[CrazyforNUHOOPS]

Northewestern (#110) KenPom rundown 2-7-14.

=======================================

Non-Conference (7-6):

306. Eastern Illinois - W (72-55)

35. @Stanford - L (58-71)

143. Illinois State - L (64-68)

283. @UIC - W (93-58)

---Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational---

326. IUPUI - W (63-61)

252. Gardner-Webb - W (72-59)

48. Missouri - L (67-78)

21. UCLA - L (79-95)

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

87. @NC State - L (48-69)

161. Western Michigan - W (51-35)

334. Mississippi Valley State - W (86-64)

168. Brown - W (58-52)

149. DePaul - L (56-57)

B1G (5-5):

17. Wisconsin - L (49-76)

14. @Michigan - L (51-74)

11. @Iowa - L (67-93)

84. Illinois - W (49-43)

12. Michigan State - L (40-54)

54. @Indiana - W (54-47)

102. Purdue - W (63-60 2OT)

11. Iowa - L (50-76)

17. @Wisconsin - W (65-56)

41. @Minnestota - W (55-54)

When they lose they lose big don't they?

Since the Illinois game, when the 'Cats first debuted their new game philosophy, the 14-point loss against Michigan State was closer than the score indicated.

I wasn't able to get to the Iowa game in Evanston, but from what I heard, Northwestern was simply outclassed in all aspects in that game.

Are you going to be there today Noah?

[royalfan]

SO basically you're saying this is PSU round 2. They did the same thing to us, and we joyfully lept into a slowish half court game. If PSU can sucker us into losing hoops, I have to believe Northwestern is way better at it. Well, at least we're going to know how opposing fans felt playing us for 6 years.

Penn St. and NW are actually nowhere near each other in terms of pace.  We played good defense against Penn St and they played as bad as they could play offensively that night.  Thus the low scoring game that ended up having a little slower pace.  But Penn St. did not go into that game thinking they needed to slow it down at home.  We slowed down that ballgame IMO. 

[royalfan]

 

 

Northewestern (#110) KenPom rundown 2-7-14.

=======================================

 

Non-Conference (7-6):

306. Eastern Illinois - W (72-55)

35. @Stanford - L (58-71)

143. Illinois State - L (64-68)

283. @UIC - W (93-58)

 

---Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational---

326. IUPUI - W (63-61)

252. Gardner-Webb - W (72-59)

48. Missouri - L (67-78)

21. UCLA - L (79-95)

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

87. @NC State - L (48-69)

 

161. Western Michigan - W (51-35)

334. Mississippi Valley State - W (86-64)

168. Brown - W (58-52)

149. DePaul - L (56-57)

 

B1G (5-5):

17. Wisconsin - L (49-76)

14. @Michigan - L (51-74)

11. @Iowa - L (67-93)

84. Illinois - W (49-43)

12. Michigan State - L (40-54)

54. @Indiana - W (54-47)

102. Purdue - W (63-60 2OT)

11. Iowa - L (50-76)

17. @Wisconsin - W (65-56)

41. @Minnestota - W (55-54)

When they lose they lose big don't they?

 

Since the Illinois game, when the 'Cats first debuted their new game philosophy, the 14-point loss against Michigan State was closer than the score indicated.

 

I wasn't able to get to the Iowa game in Evanston, but from what I heard, Northwestern was simply outclassed in all aspects in that game.

 

Iowa seemed simply too big for them.  And NW couldn't throw a three in the ocean from the beach that day.   I still have no clue how they found a way to win that Purdue game with a decimated team in overtime. 

[royalfan]

One thing about NW is that they don't appear to play good defense because of a slow tempo.  They actually do play good defense.  Better than good actually.  It is excellent.  They won't really pressure the ball a tremendous amount.   You won't necessarily feel uncomfortable handling against them that much.  And you can even get looks against them.  What they excel in is not letting the wrong guys get efficient shots.  That is what we have to be careful of.  Every possession means a little more in this one.  We have to know what is a good and bad shot.  And we are simply going to have to make them.  NW does an amazing job rebounding for how small they are.  Tip the ball well to each other on boards too.  They are a bad offensive team obviously, but seem to be making a few more shots lately.  It is going to take a very smart game by us to win.  I am not sure I can say I think we are going to play smart. 

 

A couple things I would do if coaching.  I would implement some pressure(I know Miles not that comfortable with it).  Do it anyway.  If it shows no signs of working then quit.  Just letting NW dictate the pace of play is not a recipe for success IMO.  They won't look to be aggressive in beating the pressure either to make us pay.  That is why I feel it is a must to pressure them.  I doubt we will though. 

 

I would also go without a point a good chunk in this game if it can allow for one more shooter or something else that is needed in the game.  They don't cause a ton of problems handling the ball.  We don't have to play Tai or Parker necessarily.  If someone like Hawkins is playing well then go with him.  He is bigger and matches up better with Demps and Crawford also since NW doesn't use a small point guard that much. 

[hhcmatt]

A couple things I would do if coaching.  I would implement some pressure(I know Miles not that comfortable with it).  Do it anyway.  If it shows no signs of working then quit.  Just letting NW dictate the pace of play is not a recipe for success IMO.  They won't look to be aggressive in beating the pressure either to make us pay.  That is why I feel it is a must to pressure them.  I doubt we will though. 

 

When teams pressure Nebraska, they just carefully make their way down the court and rarely look to take advantage.  Is Northwestern the same way? 

[royalfan]

 

A couple things I would do if coaching.  I would implement some pressure(I know Miles not that comfortable with it).  Do it anyway.  If it shows no signs of working then quit.  Just letting NW dictate the pace of play is not a recipe for success IMO.  They won't look to be aggressive in beating the pressure either to make us pay.  That is why I feel it is a must to pressure them.  I doubt we will though. 

 

When teams pressure Nebraska, they just carefully make their way down the court and rarely look to take advantage.  Is Northwestern the same way? 

 

Yes, I believe that is the case for the most part.  They haven't been pressured a ton in games I have seen though.  But I do not think they would present a big problem attacking us if we pressured, so long as the spacing defensively is at least decent.  If we were to pressure and they get a couple easy ones, then pry time to quit.  We don't want this team getting very many easy ones since they struggle to score. 

[49r]

Northewestern (#127) KenPom rundown 2-28-14.

=======================================

 

Non-Conference (7-6):
300. Eastern Illinois - W (72-55)
33. @Stanford - L (58-71)
142. Illinois State - L (64-68)

265. @UIC - W (93-58)

 

---Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational---

327. IUPUI - W (63-61)
233. Gardner-Webb - W (72-59)

61. Missouri - L (67-78)
16. UCLA - L (79-95)

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
74. @NC State - L (48-69)

 

134. Western Michigan - W (51-35)
338. Mississippi Valley State - W (86-64)
153. Brown - W (58-52)

163. DePaul - L (56-57)

 

B1G (5-10):

11. Wisconsin - L (49-76)

14. @Michigan - L (51-74)

12. @Iowa - L (67-93)

68. Illinois - W (49-43)

15. Michigan State - L (40-54)

66. @Indiana - W (54-47)

100. Purdue - W (63-60 2OT)

12. Iowa - L (50-76)

11. @Wisconsin - W (65-56)

51. @Minnestota - W (55-54)

59. Nebraska - L (49-53)

15. @Michigan State - L (70-85)

51. Minnesota - L (48-54)

13. @Ohio State - L (60-76)

66. Indiana - L (56-61)

 

[hhcmatt]

[hhcmatt]

BTW, Cobb scored 14 of Northwestern's 49 points against us or 28.6% of their scoring.  He was their second leading scorer.

[throwback]

Whew - that's a big setback for them. Losing Cobb makes it even more important for NW to get Demps going, but Benny did a great job shutting down Demps last time, hopefully he can do it again.

 

Guessing they'll try to ugly up the game even more than they usually do. 

 

 

 

By the way NU favored by 8 - our biggest spread as a favorite in a conference game since late in the 2009 season against Iowa St.

 

In our first 49 B1G games we were favored 5 times - now we've been favored in four of our last six games - Las Vegas is finally getting on the Miles bandwagon!