Selection Committee Games of Interest

[HuskerActuary]

8 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Florida (38) at Georgia (62)  6pm SECNetwork  Florida -3 1/2  I think we want Georgia to win this one, but not entirely sure to be honest

Florida is probably a lock for the tournament while Georgia is currently on the bubble, on the outside looking in like we are. Would think we want Florida.

[ShortDust]

Rhode Island (9) at Umass (204)

UNC (11) at Clemson (6)

Indiana (116) at Ohio State (22)

Rutgers (193) at Illinois (165)

Florida (38) at Georgia (62)

TCU (24) at Oklahoma State (93)

Xavier (3) at St. John's (104)

Minnesota (102) at Iowa (152)

Auburn (7) at Ole Miss (84)

Vanderbilt (123) at  Kentucky (12)

Arkansas (21) at Texas A&M (36)

Baylor (91) at Oklahoma (10)

Buffalo @ Kent State

 

 

Bolded teams are who’d I think we should root for tonight. Then again what do I know.

Underline is who actually won.

GBR

Edited January 31, 2018 by ShortDust

[ShortDust]

39 minutes ago, hhctony said:

Games of interest for tonight.

 

Rhode Island (9) at Umass (204)

UNC (11) at Clemson (6)

Indiana (116) at Ohio State (22)

Rutgers (193) at Illinois (165)

Florida (38) at Georgia (62)

TCU (24) at Oklahoma State (93)

Xavier (3) at St. John's (104)

Minnesota (102) at Iowa (152)

Auburn (7) at Ole Miss (84)

Vanderbilt (123) at Kentucky (12)

Arkansas (21) at Texas A&M (36)

Baylor (91) at Oklahoma (10)

Ps, I love that you do these daily Tony.

[royalfan]

9 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Florida is probably a lock for the tournament while Georgia is currently on the bubble, on the outside looking in like we are. Would think we want Florida.

Makes sense after thinking about it a bit longer. will edit my post

[cipsucks]

14 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Order of game time with line and who we need IMO. 

 

Rhode Island (9) at Umass (204) 5:30 RI -9 1/2   CBS Sports network Don't see much relevance here but I suppose Umass in case RI has epic collapse and misses dance w/o tourney win

UNC (11) at Clemson (6) 6 pm UNC -2 ESPN  Doesn't seem to matter but will root for UNC as Clemson probably the better chance of epic collapse

Indiana (116) at Ohio State (22)  6pm  ESPN2   I can slightly see arguments both ways.  Outside shot of passing Ohio St.  Seems unlikely enough, I have no problem just having them win to help legitimize league in peoples eyes and help wipe Indiana off the map

Rutgers (193) at Illinois (165)  6pm BTN  Illinois 6 1/2 Don't feel it matters much, but since road wins are important and we have one over Rutgers so maybe them?

Florida (38) at Georgia (62)  6pm SECNetwork  Florida -3 1/2  I think we want Georgia to win this one, but not entirely sure to be honest

TCU (24) at Oklahoma State (93)  6pm ESPNU  TCU-1  We want Oklahoma St here

Xavier (3) at St. John's (104) 7:30 CBS Sports Network  Xavier -4  We want St. Johns to make that loss a bit less painful

Minnesota (102) at Iowa (152)  8pm BTN  Iowa -4 1/2  We want Minny to win here as we play them twice and Iowa only once so better for RPI etc

Auburn (7) at Ole Miss (84) 8pm SEC network Auburn -5 I think Auburn nearly a lock so we want them to help eliminate Ole Miss

Vanderbilt (123) at Kentucky (12) 8pm ESPN Kentucky -9 I think we want Vandy here on off chance Kentucky melts down but this one likely doesn't matter much

Arkansas (21) at Texas A&M (36) 8pm ESPNU  Texas AM -5 Best with Arkansas to keep AM reeling back towards us

Baylor (91) at Oklahoma (10) 8 pm ESPN2  Oklahoma -5 1/2 We want OU here to help eliminate Baylor from the equation.

 

royalfan, I always enjoy your posts year around. However, this time of year, your game always goes to A+.  Thanks for all your work.

 

BTW, the same goes for Tony, too.

[hskr4life]

Georgia feeling a bit more bubbly after their loss to KSU.

 

TCU also won........

 

Not a great bubbly start for us tonight....

[ShortDust]

17 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Georgia feeling a bit more bubbly after their loss to KSU.

 

TCU also won........

 

Not a great bubbly start for us tonight....

Thinking you mean Buffalo. Georgia got a good win against Florida.

[hskr4life]

Just now, ShortDust said:

Thinking you mean Buffalo. Georgia got a good win against Florida.

 

No... oddly worded, but I meant that they were feeling more bubbly (tonight with the win) after their their loss to KSU (on Saturday).

[northwillriseagain]

I get the conference is down, but it’s hard to know at this point if it’s down, or just parity. The SEC middle pack beats up on each other and it’s called parity, the BIG does it, down.

 

i get The BIG looks too heavy, but even they have struggled against the middle pack. That tells me the conference isn’t bad, just doesn’t know how to schedule around RPI.

[ShortDust]

4 hours ago, ShortDust said:

Rhode Island (9) at Umass (204)

UNC (11) at Clemson (6)

Indiana (116) at Ohio State (22)

Rutgers (193) at Illinois (165)

Florida (38) at Georgia (62)

TCU (24) at Oklahoma State (93)

Xavier (3) at St. John's (104)

Minnesota (102) at Iowa (152)

Auburn (7) at Ole Miss (84)

Vanderbilt (123) at  Kentucky (12)

Arkansas (21) at Texas A&M (36)

Baylor (91) at Oklahoma (10)

Buffalo @ Kent State

 

 

Bolded teams are who’d I think we should root for tonight. Then again what do I know.

Underline is who actually won.

GBR

Not the greatest of nights to get help from the bubble.

[hhcmatt]

50 minutes ago, northwillriseagain said:

I get the conference is down, but it’s hard to know at this point if it’s down, or just parity. The SEC middle pack beats up on each other and it’s called parity, the BIG does it, down.

 

i get The BIG looks too heavy, but even they have struggled against the middle pack. That tells me the conference isn’t bad, just doesn’t know how to schedule around RPI.

 

You can blame some of it on injuries but the B1G is obviously down.  

[hhcmatt]

I think we want Michigan to win as much as us and here is why

 

If Michigan can win most of their remaining games, they turn into a Quad 1 win.

Assuming no one else torpedoes up or down it will be us and Michigan in the 4th/5th spot where we would get to play a Michigan team we know how to beat for another Quad 1 win.

 

Someone shoot a hole in this but I think we all need to be team Michigan in our spare time before the tourney.

[HuskerActuary]

5 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

I think we want Michigan to win as much as us and here is why

 

If Michigan can win most of their remaining games, they turn into a Quad 1 win.

Assuming no one else torpedoes up or down it will be us and Michigan in the 4th/5th spot where we would get to play a Michigan team we know how to beat for another Quad 1 win.

 

Someone shoot a hole in this but I think we all need to be team Michigan in our spare time before the tourney.

I think I agree with this, but will note that it will be tough for Michigan to get and stay top 30. Going 6-1 the rest of the way will give them an RPI of around 24. Assuming they would play us in the 4-5 game, and lose, they could drop out of the top 30 at that point (it's too early in the morning for me to do the math of that right now).

 

Going 7-0 would safely keep them in tier 1 with an RPI of 18 although that seems pretty unlikely with a host of road games remaining against Maryland, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Could happen though.

[HuskerFever]

6 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

I think we want Michigan to win as much as us and here is why

 

If Michigan can win most of their remaining games, they turn into a Quad 1 win.

Assuming no one else torpedoes up or down it will be us and Michigan in the 4th/5th spot where we would get to play a Michigan team we know how to beat for another Quad 1 win.

 

Someone shoot a hole in this but I think we all need to be team Michigan in our spare time before the tourney.

 

We still have a few weeks to go, but I think I'm in the mindset that a Friday Big Ten tourney win will get us there. I see the committee looking at our resume and thinking "can they even beat the tourney type of teams?" So if we don't think we can win that game, then we probably do need to start rooting for Michigan.

[Fullbacksympathy]

7 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

I think we want Michigan to win as much as us and here is why

 

If Michigan can win most of their remaining games, they turn into a Quad 1 win.

Assuming no one else torpedoes up or down it will be us and Michigan in the 4th/5th spot where we would get to play a Michigan team we know how to beat for another Quad 1 win.

 

Someone shoot a hole in this but I think we all need to be team Michigan in our spare time before the tourney.

 

How do you feel about Penn State?  I'm not sure what to think.  

[hhcmatt]

30 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

We still have a few weeks to go, but I think I'm in the mindset that a Friday Big Ten tourney win will get us there. I see the committee looking at our resume and thinking "can they even beat the tourney type of teams?" So if we don't think we can win that game, then we probably do need to start rooting for Michigan.

 

Unless things shift dramatically it's going to be us and Michigan in the 4th/5th seed spots. I would agree that us winning enough so that Michigan doesn't get that spot and thus we have a better chance of beating them (they would play the 11/12 game winner) is potentially worth more than Michigan being a top 30 rpi team. (unless we lose to them )

[hhcmatt]

4 minutes ago, LK1 said:

 

How do you feel about Penn State?  I'm not sure what to think.  

 

Obviously we want to beat them at home.

After that we don't want them to win enough to be on the bubble

After that  we don't want to play them in the tourney as then we're playing a Quadrant 2 team as the 3rd-6th team.

 

I think if they just sort of do what people expect them to do along the way then it's little stuff that might move our rpi up or down 1-2 points that I'm not going to spend much time thinking about.

[TourneyBound]

3 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

I think I agree with this, but will note that it will be tough for Michigan to get and stay top 30. Going 6-1 the rest of the way will give them an RPI of around 24. Assuming they would play us in the 4-5 game, and lose, they could drop out of the top 30 at that point (it's too early in the morning for me to do the math of that right now).

 

Going 7-0 would safely keep them in tier 1 with an RPI of 18 although that seems pretty unlikely with a host of road games remaining against Maryland, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Could happen though.

Where will our final RPI be before Big 10 tourney if we finish 5-1 with loss at Illinois or Minnesota versus 6-0??? Anyway to figure that out?

[hskr4life]

15 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

Where will our final RPI be before Big 10 tourney if we finish 5-1 with loss at Illinois or Minnesota versus 6-0??? Anyway to figure that out?

 

There is a site or there like rpiforecast.com or something. That you can plug games into.  I was on it the other day and we finished with a RPI a hair over 50 with a Minny loss and a hair under 50 with a Minny win.

[huskerbaseball13]

17 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

Where will our final RPI be before Big 10 tourney if we finish 5-1 with loss at Illinois or Minnesota versus 6-0??? Anyway to figure that out?

 

According to the RPI wizard if we win out we will have a RPI of 45.  Finish 5-1 and lose at either Minny or Illini and we will be sitting at 51.  IMO, I would take a 5-1 finish in a heartbeat. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, ConkintheCorner said:

Where will our final RPI be before Big 10 tourney if we finish 5-1 with loss at Illinois or Minnesota versus 6-0??? Anyway to figure that out?

 

This was a link from HuskerActuary in another thread: http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html

 

We'd likely be in the mid-50s. That's why I think it's important we beat Michigan in the B1G tourney under this scenario. If not, we're looking at an RPI near 60. Teams with that bad of an RPI usually only make it if they've beaten a handful of top 50 RPI teams, which we obviously have not.

 

FYI - for RPI purposes, it wouldn't matter who we lost to if we finish 5-1. RPI considers your win percentage (WP), your opponents' win percentage (OWP), and your opponents' opponents' win percentage (OOWP). The only one of those three that could be impacted by changing the team that beats us is the OOWP, but it would be negligible. [EDIT: This is not true. It would actually be better to lose a road game for our RPI. See posts below].

Edited January 31, 2018 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[HuskerActuary]

43 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

This was a link from HuskerActuary in another thread: http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html

 

We'd likely be in the mid-50s. That's why I think it's important we beat Michigan in the B1G tourney under this scenario. If not, we're looking at an RPI near 60. Teams with that bad of an RPI usually only make it if they've beaten a handful of top 50 RPI teams, which we obviously have not.

 

FYI - for RPI purposes, it wouldn't matter who we lost to if we finish 5-1. RPI considers your win percentage (WP), your opponents' win percentage (OWP), and your opponents' opponents' win percentage (OOWP). The only one of those three that could be impacted by changing the team that beats us is the OOWP, but it would be negligible. 

Cookie nailed it with this explanation. I have seen comments like "think how much better our RPI would be if we beat Ohio State" but the impact to RPI is the largely the same whether you swap out your best loss or your worst loss or one in the middle. This is why you can predict an end-of-season RPI reasonably well with an assumed record without needing to actually predict your game-by-game results.

[hhctony]

9 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Cookie nailed it with this explanation. I have seen comments like "think how much better our RPI would be if we beat Ohio State" but the impact to RPI is the largely the same whether you swap out your best loss or your worst loss or one in the middle. This is why you can predict an end-of-season RPI reasonably well with an assumed record without needing to actually predict your game-by-game results.

 

And, to take it one step further, the only way you could really change it was if it went 5-1, but the loss was at home as opposed to on the road. Would change your winning percentage slightly.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

Just now, hhctony said:

 

And, to take it one step further, the only way you could really change it was if it went 5-1, but the loss was at home as opposed to on the road. Would change your winning percentage slightly.

 

Good point. For RPI, it would be better for us to lose a road game.

 

Here's what our overall RPI "record" would be under the following scenarios:

5-1 with a road loss: 17.2 - 6.6 = 72.3% WP

5-1 with a home loss: 18.0 - 7.4 = 70.9% WP

 

And actually, that difference could equate to a five spot difference in the RPI standings. So I take back my point from the last post. It might not be a negligible difference. But at the same time, it looks better to the committee if we have more road wins (and could be better for our Quadrant records, too). So in the end, maybe it's just a wash?

 

[hhctony]

Games for tonight as I'll be out of the loop the rest of the day and tomorrow, so maybe no updates to this until Saturday.

 

Penn State (108) at Michigan State (24)

LSU (81) at Tennessee (14)

Pitt (183) at Miami (FL) (17)

Louisville (20) at Virginia (1) -- probably doesn't matter for us

Houston (49) at Cincinnati (16)

Providence (37) at Seton Hall (19)

West Virginia (29) at Iowa State (116) -- curious to see the end result of this one

Florida State (35) at Wake Forest (127) -- it'd be a nice night some lousy ACC teams to win.

Syracuse (34) at Georgia Tech (141)

Maryland (60) at Purdue (8)

Mississippi State (70) at South Carolina (53)

Virginia Tech (74) at Boston College (69)

Missouri (46) at Alabama (27)

UConn (82) at UCF (68)

Butler (32) at Marquette (47)

Texas (38) at Texas Tech (18)

Arizona (13) at Washington State (164) -- this one likely in the doesn't matter range as well