Selection Committee Games of Interest

[HuskerActuary]

6 hours ago, MichHusker said:

Have a feeling if we knock off marylsnd we will shoot up in # of brackets in on bracket matrix, and maybe even last 4 in with Lunardi. For some reason Maryland still holds a lot of clout. 

Second this

[HuskerFever]

7 hours ago, MichHusker said:

Have a feeling if we knock off marylsnd we will shoot up in # of brackets in on bracket matrix, and maybe even last 4 in with Lunardi. For some reason Maryland still holds a lot of clout. 

 

People love the blue bloods in the regular season and hate them in the postseason. I don't understand why a team like Kentucky is as high as they are right now.

[royalfan]

Updated Fever post for added game, RPI's, game time, how to watch, line and who I feel we need

 

Michigan 40/Wisconsin 143 - 12pm CBS  Michigan -4 We need Wisconsin.  Again, I don't think tiers are really a thing, like most others do.  We played Wisconsin twice.  I want to strengthen those wins, including the road win.  We are also competing with Michigan for one of the last bids in the field.  I also think the committee will give us credit for a double bye whether they want to admit it or not, and Michigan is the main threat to that.  If Michigan does win, it does improve our chances of playing them again, for better or worse, which would neutralize the game played differential between these two clubs. 
 

Louisville 42/Pittsburgh 176 -  12 pm ACC/ESPN Full Court/Espn3  Lousiville -11 1/2  Need Pittsburgh
Wake Forest 125/Syracuse 38 - 12pm ACC/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3 Syracuse - 7 1/2  Need Wake Forest
UMass Lowell  303/Vermont  41 - 1pm ESPN3  No line Need UMASS Lowell 
Cincinnati 10/SMU  75 - 3pm ESPN Cincinnati -8 Need Cincinnati
UCF 68/Memphis 125 - 3pm CBS Sports Network  Memphis -3 Need UCF
Tulane 132/Houston 31- 5pm ESPNU  Houston - 14 We need Tulane

Penn St. 91/Illinois 175 - 6pm BTN Penn St - 2 1/2  This one very tough to figure out.  On one hand a Penn St. win gives us a shot to play a bigger game in that last game, which is a game time that should have a lot of selection eyes on our game. It also would possibly deflate Illinois a bit more, potentially making our game against them slightly easier.   On the other hand, Penn St. is very close to us in terms of getting a bid, and already beat us.  Also not sure I want to see them as the 5 seed in New York if we get the 4.  They also could easily get the 4 from us yet.  All things considered, I think it may be best if Illinois wins this one.  
 

Washington State 183/Oregon82 - 7pm ESPNU  Oregon - 15 1/2  We want Washington St.  

 

Other games

 

Stanford 94 at Colorado 66  3pm Pac 12 Network  Colorado -3  I think we want Stanford but it is a little tricky

Edited February 11, 2018 by royalfan

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

14 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Updated Fever post for added game, RPI's, game time, how to watch, line and who I feel we need

 

Michigan 40/Wisconsin 143 - 12pm CBS  Michigan -4 We need Wisconsin.  Again, I don't think tiers are really a thing, like most others do.  We played Wisconsin twice.  I want to strengthen those wins, including the road win.  We are also competing with Michigan for one of the last bids in the field.  I also think the committee will give us credit for a double bye whether they want to admit it or not, and Michigan is the main threat to that.  If Michigan does win, it does improve our chances of playing them again, for better or worse, which would neutralize the game played differential between these two clubs. 

 

Another thanks to @HuskerFever and yourself for doing this.

 

I know we continue to go back and forth on these Michigan arguments, but I can't resist.

 

Even if the committee doesn't care about the tiers, which I think they must care about them to some degree or else they wouldn't have invented them, don't you think it's important that our best win is strengthened? When the committee looks at our resume and sees our best win was at home against a now-unranked Michigan, don't you think that looks really bad? Our lack of big wins is the #1 argument against us right now. That win needs to look as good as it can, especially considering the possibility that our TWO best wins could be against Michigan... which actually leads to another point... chances are we will be playing Michigan for a second time, and chances are we won't be playing Wisconsin for a third time. So Wisconsin winning today would benefit our RPI ever so slightly today, but by the end of the B1G tournament it will likely be neutralized.

 

As for the double bye, we'd have to lose twice in order to relinquish that to Michigan. If we lose two of our last four, we're toast for an at-large bid anyways.

Edited February 11, 2018 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[hhctony]

13 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Penn St. 91/Illinois 175 - 6pm BTN Penn St - 2 1/2  This one very tough to figure out.  On one hand a Penn St. win gives us a shot to play a bigger game in that last game, which is a game time that should have a lot of selection eyes on our game. It also would possibly deflate Illinois a bit more, potentially making our game against them slightly easier.   On the other hand, Penn St. is very close to us in terms of getting a bid, and already beat us.  Also not sure I want to see them as the 5 seed in New York if we get the 4.  They also could easily get the 4 from us yet.  All things considered, I think it may be best if Illinois wins this one.  

 

Given what Penn State has left if they catch us, they’ll have a way better resume than Nebraska. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

15 minutes ago, hhctony said:

 

Given what Penn State has left if they catch us, they’ll have a way better resume than Nebraska. 

 

I like our odds of beating them at home, which would ultimately make our resume better than theirs. With the way we're playing, I'm not afraid of anyone left on our schedule (especially at PBA). Not saying we can't lose those games, but at this point I think strengthening our wins is the most important factor. And like @royalfan said, getting some eyes on our No Sit Sunday matchup with them will be important. Need to make that game a big win for us, so go Penn State for me. We should be rooting for teams based on the assumption that we're going to win our last four.

Edited February 11, 2018 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[HuskerFever]

5 minutes ago, hhctony said:

 

Given what Penn State has left if they catch us, they’ll have a way better resume than Nebraska. 

 

And to be realistic for a moment, should we lose that game Penn State vaults well past us with a quality road win.

[HuskerPower #nato73]

Bigger picture:

I think we want Michigan to stay in quadrant 1.  Also Northwestern has Rutgers away and then three home games (one against Mich State.) it would be nice if they could sneak in to make our road win against them a quadrant 1.  It will matter to somebody so ideally we get those.  I suppose, ironically, we could knock Michigan out of quadrant 1 by beating them again in the conference tournament, but by then we are in the semis with a lot of wins so who cares right?

 

Our big games are in the ACC today.  Lunardi is talking about 10 bids for them.  Louisville has chance to get a brutal loss today and syracuse could lose at home.  Interestingly Syracuse on KenPom is predicted to lose their next 6!

 

An upcoming game of note: St. Bonaventure gets Rhode Island at home.  We don't want that upset to happen.  

 

If the above sounds like rambling, that's what being on the bubble does.  We should just win and let the cards fall where they may I suppose.

[rr52]

42 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

Bigger picture:

I think we want Michigan to stay in quadrant 1.  Also Northwestern has Rutgers away and then three home games (one against Mich State.) it would be nice if they could sneak in to make our road win against them a quadrant 1.  It will matter to somebody so ideally we get those.  I suppose, ironically, we could knock Michigan out of quadrant 1 by beating them again in the conference tournament, but by then we are in the semis with a lot of wins so who cares right?

 

Our big games are in the ACC today.  Lunardi is talking about 10 bids for them.  Louisville has chance to get a brutal loss today and syracuse could lose at home.  Interestingly Syracuse on KenPom is predicted to lose their next 6!

 

An upcoming game of note: St. Bonaventure gets Rhode Island at home.  We don't want that upset to happen.  

 

If the above sounds like rambling, that's what being on the bubble does.  We should just win and let the cards fall where they may I suppose.

Yeah, this bubble talk has things misconbobulated. One night your wanting Texas to beat TCU then 3 nights later you want Oklahoma to beat Texas and 4 days later it turns to rooting for Texas to beat Baylor...or something like that. And let me be completely honest it is really tough to cheer for certain teams.

[royalfan]

The main problem with rooting for Michigan is that there are a certain number of spots available and it is not a large number.  Michigan has one of them now.  We don't.  I cannot get behind rooting for teams we need to pass to get in.  If the difference in our quality of win over them is impacted by them losing an extra game or two and it costs us, the flip side is that we actually could replace them.  After all the committee is aware of how many a league gets, even if they don't want to admit it.  And the Big 10 is getting at least 4 teams.  Right now Michigan is 4.  Not that is matters, as they are crushing Wisconsin, which is hurting our predictive measures since score matters and we played them twice.  Not good.  

Edited February 11, 2018 by royalfan

[HuskerFever]

This isn't looking like a very favorable bubble day for us today.

[hskr4life]

SMU is terrible.  I mean terrible.

 

Down 63-29 at HOME!

[HuskerFever]

10 hours ago, royalfan said:

Updated Fever post for added game, RPI's, game time, how to watch, line and who I feel we need

 

Michigan 40/Wisconsin 143 - 12pm CBS  Michigan -4 We need Wisconsin.  Again, I don't think tiers are really a thing, like most others do.  We played Wisconsin twice.  I want to strengthen those wins, including the road win.  We are also competing with Michigan for one of the last bids in the field.  I also think the committee will give us credit for a double bye whether they want to admit it or not, and Michigan is the main threat to that.  If Michigan does win, it does improve our chances of playing them again, for better or worse, which would neutralize the game played differential between these two clubs. -- (gotta trump Royal on this one; it's our biggest win and if we can't clear out the #4 spot we don't deserve to be there anyway)
Louisville 42/Pittsburgh 176 -  12 pm ACC/ESPN Full Court/Espn3  Lousiville -11 1/2  Need Pittsburgh
Wake Forest 125/Syracuse 38 - 12pm ACC/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3 Syracuse - 7 1/2  Need Wake Forest
UMass Lowell  303/Vermont  41 - 1pm ESPN3  No line Need UMASS Lowell 
Cincinnati 10/SMU  75 - 3pm ESPN Cincinnati -8 Need Cincinnati
UCF 68/Memphis 125 - 3pm CBS Sports Network  Memphis -3 Need UCF
Tulane 132/Houston 31- 5pm ESPNU  Houston - 14 We need Tulane
Penn St. 91/Illinois 175 - 6pm BTN Penn St - 2 1/2  This one very tough to figure out.  On one hand a Penn St. win gives us a shot to play a bigger game in that last game, which is a game time that should have a lot of selection eyes on our game. It also would possibly deflate Illinois a bit more, potentially making our game against them slightly easier.   On the other hand, Penn St. is very close to us in terms of getting a bid, and already beat us.  Also not sure I want to see them as the 5 seed in New York if we get the 4.  They also could easily get the 4 from us yet.  All things considered, I think it may be best if Illinois wins this one.
Washington State 183/Oregon82 - 7pm ESPNU  Oregon - 15 1/2  We want Washington St.  

 

Other games

Stanford 94 at Colorado 66  3pm Pac 12 Network  Colorado -3  I think we want Stanford but it is a little tricky

 

Updated.

Edited February 12, 2018 by HuskerFever

[royalfan]

UCF a nice win

[Fullbacksympathy]

I think we cheer on Michigan and Penn St. the rest of the regular season.

 

It'll be interesting to see how PSU performs over the next three games.  After Illinois, they have OSU at home and Purdue on the road.  

 

I think PSU at full health is better than Michigan.  I think Michigan is the 6th best team in the conference.  The insistence that they belong in the tournament with a 20pt loss to us is annoying.  

 

 

[HuskerFever]

Here's just a few stats to look at, as of the conclusions of last night's games:

 

Penn State

RPI: 91

KPI: 76

SOR: 68

BPI: 39

POM: 43

SAG: 47

SOS: 116 (Div I), 256 (Non-Conf)

Opp SOS: 71 (Div I), 180 (Non-Conf)

SOS w/in Conf: 13

Avg RPI Win: 184

Avg RPI Loss: 79

Tier 1: 1-4

Tier 2: 2-3

Tier 3: 6-2

Tier 4: 8-0

 

Nebraska

RPI: 54

KPI: 66

SOR: 35

BPI: 64

POM: 56

SAG: 60

SOS: 117 (Div I), 290 (Non-Conf)

Opp SOS: 54 (Div I), 161 (Non-Conf)

SOS w/in Conf: 11

Avg RPI Win: 189

Avg RPI Loss: 37

Tier 1: 0-6

Tier 2: 3-2

Tier 3: 7-0

Tier 4: 9-0

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

50 minutes ago, LK1 said:

I think we cheer on Michigan and Penn St. the rest of the regular season.

 

It'll be interesting to see how PSU performs over the next three games.  After Illinois, they have OSU at home and Purdue on the road.  

 

I think PSU at full health is better than Michigan.  I think Michigan is the 6th best team in the conference.  The insistence that they belong in the tournament with a 20pt loss to us is annoying.  

 

 

 

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Michigan

 

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Nebraska

 

Aside from one day when we beat them, what would you say is more impressive about our resume? You can't just harp on one head-to-head game (in Lincoln, nonetheless). Otherwise just about every team in the NCAA could stake a claim to a bid. Don't get me wrong, I think we're the better team. But the resume is ultimately what matters because it's the easiest way for human minds to compare teams. All of their metrics are far better than ours, they have road wins against MSU and Texas, and another non-con win against UCLA.

[royalfan]

That is precisely why I want them to lose some games.  We won't pass them if they don't aside from possibly winning out and beating them again, in which case we are in anyway.  This is why I hope they lose.  They are taking a very valuable spot in the proceedings.  One less spot that is available for us to get.  

[throwback]

2 hours ago, LK1 said:

I think we cheer on Michigan and Penn St. the rest of the regular season.

 

It'll be interesting to see how PSU performs over the next three games.  After Illinois, they have OSU at home and Purdue on the road.  

 

I think PSU at full health is better than Michigan.  I think Michigan is the 6th best team in the conference.  The insistence that they belong in the tournament with a 20pt loss to us is annoying.  

 

 

I'm with you - PSU is really talented and plays well when they're dialed in - Watkins and Carr are great players. They are really good - that's our toughest remaining game in my eyes.  Fortunately, PBA will be ready for No Sit Sunday II by then.

 

But they had some awful losses over the first half of the season, so they have to win out in the regular season I'd imagine, just to get to bubble talk. 

 

By the way, BTN has its Big Ten & Beyond show on after the PSU-Ill game and they just teased it, saying they were going to talk a ton about NU. PSU just about has put this game away, so that show should start in 5 minutes.

Edited February 12, 2018 by throwback

[AuroranHusker]

PSU boatraced Illinois in the 2nd half. Final 74-52.

 

[Dead Dog Alley]

2 hours ago, LK1 said:

I think we cheer on Michigan and Penn St. the rest of the regular season.

 

It'll be interesting to see how PSU performs over the next three games.  After Illinois, they have OSU at home and Purdue on the road.  

 

I think PSU at full health is better than Michigan.  I think Michigan is the 6th best team in the conference.  The insistence that they belong in the tournament with a 20pt loss to us is annoying.  

 

 

 

In a matchup of Beilein vs. Chambers, I'm giving Michigan the advantage on the bench 100 times out of 100.  That's not to say that Michigan wins at Penn State this year, but on a neutral court I'd say Michigan because of that.

[AuroranHusker]

PSU closes with these four (with RPI):

2/15 OSU #16

2/18 at PU #11

2/21 Mich #40

2/25 at NE #54

 

 

[AuroranHusker]

 

[HuskerFever]

Penn State technically still has a shot at the #4 seed right now. It might be too late to convince the committee, but I can see the standard four (Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan) and the odd two (Nebraska and Penn State) be in the conversation for tourney bids.

 

Unfortunately, they're not likely to give 6 bids. If they're only handing out four bids in the end, then we're fighting with Michigan and Penn State to finish off with the better resume.

[AuroranHusker]

 

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by AuroranHusker