2025 B1G Tourney Projection

[throwback]

Playing with the bracket projector a little bit - we're probably going to have to go at least 3-1 down the stretch to have a shot to get into the top 9 and get that first-day bye. And we probably have to win at Ohio State or hope they get swept on their LA roadie - we lose most of the tie-breakers to them if we lose the rematch and we're both at 10-10.

 

However, if we beat OSU but only go 1-2 in the other 3 games, we could still get to #9 at 9-11 because then we win the tie-breakers against Ohio St. 

 

For our hopes of getting a day 1 bye, that OSU game looks like the big one.

 

• If we go 4-0, good chance at #7 seed - could get to #6 with a miracle or two.
• If we go 2-2 with wins vs Iowegia and Minny - likely would be the #10 seed
• If worst case scenario happens, we could still miss the tourney.

 

https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

Edited February 21 by throwback

[NUtball]

With this team, there's no telling.  Definition of Jekyll and Hyde.  Look like world beaters for 20 minutes and then like a 6th-grade girl's squad for the next 20, or vice-versa.

[throwback]

After Friday's games - if chalk holds in the other games from here (which of course won't happen):

 

NU goes 0-4

• Misses B1G tournament

NU goes 1-3

• Win vs Iowa or OSU or Mich: #12 seed vs Rutgers Wednesday; Michigan Thursday
• Win vs Minny: #12 seed vs Iowa Wednesday; Michigan Thursday

NU goes 2-2

• Wins vs Iowa/OSU or Minny/OSU or Mich/OSU: #9 seed BYE Wednesday; Oregon Thursday
• Wins vs Iowa/Minny or Iowa/Mich: #10 seed vs Minny Wednesday; Illinois Thursday
• Wins vs Mich/Minny: #10 seed vs NW Wednesday; Illinois Thursday

NU goes 3-1

• Loss vs Mich or Minny or Iowa: #9 seed BYE Wednesday; Oregon Thursday
• Loss vs OSU: #10 seed vs Minny Wednesday; Illinois Thursday

NU goes 4-0

• #7 seed BYE Wednesday; OSU-Minny winner Thursday

 

If chalk holds, top 4 seeds would be:

• 1-Wiscy
• 2-Maryland
• 3-MSU
• 4-Purdue

 

Edited February 22 by throwback

[Silverbacked1]

Thank you for doing this 

[throwback]

After Monday's games and if chalk holds from here (chalk according to the bracket generator), not much change from previously:

 

NU goes 3-0

#9 seed - Wed BYE; Thur v Illinois

 

*We could still get to #8 seed if we go 3-0 and Illinois loses one game to Iowa/Mich/Pur; could still get to #7 seed if we go 3-0, Illinois loses one, and Oregon loses two of USC/Wash/Indiana

 

NU goes 2-1

• Wins vs OSU/Minn or OSU/Iowa - #9 seed - Wed BYE; Thur vs Illinois
• Wins vs Iowa/Minn - #10 seed - Wed vs Minn; Thur vs Oregon

 

*If we go 2-1 and lose to OSU, we could still get to the #9 seed if OSU loses to USC and beats Indiana. With NU/OSU/IU at 9-11, we win the tiebreaker for 9th. (Indiana would also have to go 2-1 in its other 3 remaining games vs PSU/Wash/Ore - we need it to be a three-way tiebreaker. And we need Rutgers to stay out of the tiebreaker, so they have to go 1-2 vs Minn/Pur/MIch. And we'd need USC to lose to Oregon to keep them out of the tiebreaker.)

 

NU goes 1-2

#12 seed - Wed vs NW; Thur vs Mich

 

NU goes 0-3

Misses tourney

 

If chalk holds, double byes go to:

1-Maryland

2-Wisc

3-MSU

4-Purdue

 

Of course, there's no way chalk holds from here - at least as the generator selects chalk. Some of the generator's "favorites" are a little suspect based on how teams are playing now.

 

We definitely could use Ohio St to lose at USC tomorrow to help our seeding chances of getting to #9. 

 

Edited February 26 by throwback

[hskr4life]

OSU losing also helps our NCAA chances as well.

[throwback]

Welp.

 

If we go 2-0 from here and Indiana loses to both Oregon and Ohio St, we can still get to #9 seed. Otherwise, we're playing on Wednesday ... hopefully.

 

Go 0-2 and we can still miss the B1G tourney ... and the chances are pretty high that we will. Most of those teams toward the bottom have multi-team tiebreakers over us. That loss today was a killer.

 

In fact, even if we beat OSU, we won't be guaranteed a spot in the B1G tourney immediately.  We might have to wait to see some other results later in the week. Because of how poorly we fare in the multi-team tiebreakers against the lower teams, we still might need to beat Iowa to make the tourney.

 

So we have to beat OSU to keep alive any hope of getting a day one bye. But we may have to beat Iowa to make sure we're in the tourney at all.

 

For the games Sunday thru Tuesday, the games that really affect us are Indiana at Oregon and UCLA at NW.

• If we beat OSU and NW loses to UCLA, that won't quite clinch a spot in the B1G tourney, but we'll be in pretty good shape barring 3 or 4 major upsets in other games down the stretch.
• If we beat OSU and Indiana loses to Oregon, that still keeps alive for the #9 seed.
• If we lose to OSU, it very likely will take a win over Iowa to make the B1G tourney.
• We might sneak in as the #15 seed by going 0-2 if USC loses its last two games (home v Wash / at UCLA); otherwise 0-2 almost certainly leaves us out.

 

More great news on a shit sandwich of a day.

 

Edited Sunday at 02:17 AM by throwback