A Few Questions and Thoughts

[NUdiehard]

I have read the board.  I have listened to the interviews.  I went to the scrimmage.  Now it is time for the games to begin.  Excited about the season, this is what we have all been waiting for.  Nebraska in the top 25.  A team in the national picture.  A program on the rise.  I am doing my best to sit back and enjoy the ride.  But I can't help but have a few questions and thoughts as this new season begins:

 

1.  Is this year's "bench" better than last years?  -

 

2.  Will they maintain that "eye of the tiger" and relentless defensive effort and attitude that got them to the tournament last year when they were the underdogs fighting to reach the top?

 

3.    (And I know this one will be very controversial, but) "will some of us be concerned at various points throughout this season that Petteway is still taking too many ill-advised shots?"

 

 

My initial thoughts:

 

1.  I keep debating this one in my mind.  If Leslee were healthy and playing, there would be no doubt that this year's bench is superior to last year.  But without Leslee, I am not so sure and will probably have to wait and see before I can truly believe it.  Although Gallegos continued to struggle shooting last year, he was a 5th year senior who knew the league, how to play tough defense, and how to play smart and aggressive.  Gallegos started 18 games and played an average of 28 minutes per game.  That was 3rd on the entire team for total minutes played.  Regarding Leslee, I have mentioned this in another thread, but even though he only played 16.8 minutes per game, his "per 40 minutes" averages for points and rebounds far exceed the production of Moses last year.  Losing Leslee is a blow and I don't think Moses is going to replace his leadership or production (although I do hold out a slimmer of hope that he can pull off the miracle and return in January).  This means that the combination of Smith and Fuller have to make up for the loss of Gallegos and the drop-off from Leslee to Moses.  I don't know yet, will have to wait and see.

 

2.  This team was very poor on defense early last year.  To make things worse, they fouled like crazy and put opponents to the line at an alarming rate.  Fortunately, after 5 or so games into conference play (when it was absolute do or die time), something clicked and they cranked up the intensity and effort and communication on defense.  Can they duplicate that level of intensity right out of the gate this year?  I am sure Benny can, but what about the team as a whole?  And the freshman, will they "get it" at all this year, let alone early on in the season?  These are questions that remain to be seen.

 

3.  And last, I know some on here will think I am somehow bashing or putting down Terran for even asking that question.  I assure you I am not.  There is no doubt that it was Terran who took the team on his back last year and carried it through much of that winning streak that catapulted NU to the tourney.  However, just b/c Terran did and can do great things does not mean he is infallible.  And there is no doubt in my mind that Terran and his poor shot selection played at least some part in NU's early struggles last year. 

 

As I said above, I have listened to all the interviews of the coaches and players throughout the summer an this preseason.  And I have heard on multiple occasions from the coaches and players (and I particularly recall Coach Harriman say it at least twice) that on a good number of days in practice, Shavon Shields is the best player on the floor.  Remember, Shavon came out like gang-busters last year, But then he tweaked his knee and he was not the same player until late in the season when he finally fully recovered.  It was during the time that Shavon was hurting that Terran carried the team.  But by all accounts Shavon is fully healthy now.  And by all accounts he is stronger and playing better than ever.  So do we still need Terran to be superman and take 15+ shots a game?  Or do we need him to be more selective and take what the offense gives him and not force. it. 

 

Even last year, when Shavon was not healthy much of the year, Shavon shot 44.3% FG.  Terran shot 42.6%.  Beyond that, last year Pitchford shot 47.3% FG and a remarkable 41% on 3-Point shots.  By all accounts, Walt is shooting the ball better than ever.  Both Shavon and Walt were more efficient scorers last year, and they should be much improved this year.  Now, I fully understand that Terran had to take a lot of very difficult shots b/c he was the "go to" guy late in the clock.  I get that.  But Terran also hucked up A LOT of quick 25 ft bombs with 30 seconds left on the clock.  Or an off-balance fade away shot that wasn't necessary.  And so forth.  When Terran drives, he has one thing on his mind--trying to put the ball in the basket.  But are there times he should look to the corner for an open 3 for Walt?  Or to the elbow for an open pass to Shavon?  Terran can get tunnel vision sometimes and we need him to remain team focused for all 40 minutes every game.  And again, I do not thing Terran is selfish or anything like that, I just think he is so competitive that he gets in a combat mode and sometimes fails to stay the course with the offense and the system that has been implemented for the best team success

[ajb5856]

#3 is obviously the most interesting question. I think some of your thoughts about that one are spot on and legitimate 'concerns'. Concerns, not so much in the light that they are actual problems, but things that will be figured out as the games roll along. Remember how long this team took to figure things out last season before they came into their own and started playing together? At the end of the season, the chemistry was there, and they figured out how they had to play in order to win.

Terran did have to take some of the bail out shots last season. I have to believe that everyone around Terran has improved. Shavon, Tai, Walt...all improved. We hope, at least. The biggest thing for Terran will be to let the weapons around him thrive, and, in turn, this will open things up even more for TP. As the year went along last year, the chemistry built. Terran knew when he had to go versus forcing when he thought he needed to go. This year, Petteway will certainly still be the man, but there may be less situations where we need him to force it. I think right out of the gate, Terran will have this figured out. This team can be scary good offensively, and I think Terran is smart enough to understand that taking a step back and letting his other weapons thrive will open up even more for him and the offense as a whole. It's gonna be a fun ride!

[Norm Peterson]

NUdiehard, your pessimism (or perhaps "caution" would be a better word) compared to my optimism has generally been well-founded over the years.  But I think it's too early to be worried at this point, even for you.

 

Until I see otherwise, I'm going to assume the following:

 

1.  As we've been told, Terran Petteway put his name in for the draft analysis thing and got back a list of weaknesses that he needed to work on.  I'm sure shot selection was one of those issues.  Defense was probably another.  And perimeter shooting accuracy was probably a third.  He got major props at the Adidas Nations thing.  He's a warrior and, until I see otherwise, I'm going to assume he's going to come back stronger, faster and better than ever.

 

2.  I'm going to assume Tai Webster has elevated his game a bunch.  I think I saw evidence of this at the scrimmage.  Tai's biggest issue was confidence last year and I think get that bugaboo out of his brain and he'll let his natural ability show through.  Tai should be a better shooter and a better distributor than he was a year ago.

 

3.  I'm going to assume Walt Pitchford's shooting accuracy is at least as good as last year if not possibly a little better.  Moreover, I'm going to bet that he's worked at adding some additional elements to his game such as dribble driving.

 

4.  I'm going to assume Benny Parker has worked on his shot and that he's at least serviceable and must be guarded from the outside when he's on the floor now.

 

5.  I'm going to assume that the David Rivers who took the floor in the last half of conference play last year will be the David Rivers who shows up for his senior season.  I see no reason to fear that he won't be as good as his best last year.

 

6.  I have no doubt (so I don't even need to assume) that Shavon Shields will be just a little better all-around Shavon Shields than he was a year ago.  The valleys will not be as low and will be further apart.  He'll be more consistently good, game to game.  Of this I have no doubt whatsoever.

 

7.  I will assume that Tarin Smith is a freak athlete, that Nick Fuller is a quality long ball shooter, and then Jacob Hammond is a big who wants to play as a big and not as some oversized shooting guard.  And, among the three of those freshmen, I'm going to assume that we'll find as much productivity as we do with the freshmen last year.

 

8.  We miss Leslee, no question.  I agree that's a concern.  I think Ayegba can maybe do some things as well as or maybe slightly better than Leslee (blocking shots for certain), but overall I think we lose just a little bit in the exchange there.  However, that's one back-up position and I think we more than make up for that with all of the other anticipated improvements I'm assuming we'll see.

 

 

These assumptions are not just pulled out of thin air but based on stuff that I've either witnessed myself or that have been sourced.  For example, what Petteway reportedly did at Adidas Nations was not the biased perspective of a Husker homer.  Things said about Webster, Pitchford, Parker and Fuller have come straight from the head coach's mouth.  Or twitter account.  So I feel safe trusting those things.

 

Too soon to worry.  One cause for concern is losing Leslee.  But, balanced against all the other reasons for optimism, I'm not going to get hung up on it.

[Silverbacked1]

Terran did have to take some of the bail out shots last season. I have to believe that everyone around Terran has improved. Shavon, Tai, Walt...all improved. We hope, at least. The biggest thing for Terran will be to let the weapons around him thrive, and, in turn, this will open things up even more for TP. As the year went along last year, the chemistry built. Terran knew when he had to go versus forcing when he thought he needed to go. This year, Petteway will certainly still be the man, but there may be less situations where we need him to force it. I think right out of the gate, Terran will have this figured out. This team can be scary good offensively, and I think Terran is smart enough to understand that taking a step back and letting his other weapons thrive will open up even more for him and the offense as a whole. It's gonna be a fun ride!

This is spot on. And I might add the some of us (myself included) will also need to know that early in the year Terran may try too hard and actually may not look good in the begininng.

[hhcmatt]

So do we still need Terran to be superman and take 15+ shots a game?  Or do we need him to be more selective and take what the offense gives him and not force. it. 

 

Maybe.

 

If you looks at last year's Effective FG %, only Pitchford was putting up elite numbers.  Otherwise, the rest of the team was fairly average and that was reflected in our overall poor shooting percentages and lack of scoring punch.

 

Even if Terran was jacking up bad shots, it's not like he was taking away scoring opportunities from anyone else who was going score much more efficiently than him. Given how much he went to the FT line, we probably would have been better off with him taking all of Ray Gallegos' shots as well. 

 

 

Has the team's overall eFG% gone up?  Has Petteway's?

If the rest of the team has made some sort of improvement, we might see an increase of tempo that will allow for Petteway to shoot at the same rate while decreasing his overall team shot % numbers. 

 

As much Doc ball as I watched I hope he keeps jacking up a ball or two he shouldn't every game. I can't quantify it, but I feel it loosens the team and keeps the defense guessing.....and sometimes they go in.

[bball23]

Brandon Ubel tweeted the other day something alone the lines of "I know Petteway is the man, but don't forget Shavon Shields is a BEAST."

[49r]

NUdiehard, your pessimism (or perhaps "caution" would be a better word) compared to my optimism has generally been well-founded over the years.  But I think it's too early to be worried at this point, even for you.

 

 

 

Norm, we call this phenomena the "Peterson/diehard spectrum".  I tend to fall somewhere on the diehard side of center on this metric, I would imagine most of the rest of us are somewhere in that region, too.  

[Norm Peterson]

 

NUdiehard, your pessimism (or perhaps "caution" would be a better word) compared to my optimism has generally been well-founded over the years.  But I think it's too early to be worried at this point, even for you.

 

 

 

Norm, we call this phenomena the "Peterson/diehard spectrum".  I tend to fall somewhere on the diehard side of center on this metric, I would imagine most of the rest of us are somewhere in that region, too.  

 

And most years, you would have been right.  However, LAST year ...

 

 

If I had been ghost-writing for NUdiehard last year at this time, my misgivings about the '13-'14 season would have probably been something like:

 

1.  We don't know jack squat about these transfers.  Pitchford hardly played at Florida.  Is he all of a sudden going to become good?  And Petteway put up dismal numbers that no one at Texas Tech was probably sorry to see him go. 

 

2.  Shields is due for a sophomore slump.  Is he slumping yet?  See, he's slumping.  Case closed.

 

3.  Leslee Smith has bad knees and had no major offers coming out of juco.

 

4.  Benny Parker has never been able to hit the broad side of a barn and he's our only experienced PG.

 

5.  David Rivers?  Please.

 

6.  Fran Fraschilla might have liked Tai Webster but no other major programs tried to offer him.  So, how good could he really be?

 

7.  Ray Gallegos is, like, a lifetime 29% shooter from 3 pt land.  And he's going to be our go-to scorer?  Where will we get points?

 

We're looking for another bad season in '13-'14, boys.  Just accept it and pour yourself another double scotch and dream of better times.

 

Me?  I'd rather look at the bright side. 

[NUdiehard]

Norm, I think you are reading too much negativity into my post.  In many ways, I see my perspective as just the opposite in many ways.  For instance, the reason I think we may have concerns about TP's shot selection is because I have so much confidence in other players like Shavon, Walt, and even others like Tai.  I think we have at least a 3-headed monster.  I am very high on ALL THREE (with Tai possibly being the small 4th head).  That is why I want to see a slightly more balanced offense.  UNLIKE those past years under Doc and Collier, we now have multiple talented players.  I am not down on this team or the starter at all. 

 

I do have some concern about our bench.  Even Miles has said that we have "6" and then the rest if up in the air.  I agree.  Last year, I think we had a solid 8 at the beginning of the year b/c we had Gallegos and Leslee (we also had Biggs, but that took a turn in a different direction).  I do think Moses will get minutes b/c he must and he will at least be a body that can bang.  I just hope he doesn't foul b/c fouls hurt us last year and we don't need to repeat that.

 

Anyway, I am VERY high on that Shields kid and that Walt kid.  And I have always (even at the beginning of last year) been high on Tai's potential--Let's just hope he has the confidence and shooting touch to achieve it.  I actually like Tai starting b/c I like his height at the PG position.  It opens up a lot of opportunities on the defensive end to switch and do other team defense strategies.  No doubt, Benny is a better on-ball (one-on-one) defender, but Tai brings his own strengths and I actually thought he was becoming a decent defender by the end of last year.

 

In years past, I believe I had ample reason to be pessimistic,  I am not going there this year or in this post.  I am just raising questions that I think may determine whether this team is really good or elite.  The conference is loaded again this year.  Every team feels it is better than last year.  Every team has new guys coming in that they are counting on to do big things.  Many of those teams have 4 and 5 star recruits and McDonals All-Americans.  NU will have to be on the top of its game to finish in the top third of the league this year.  These are some areas I think will be important for our success.

[Norm Peterson]

No, NUdiehard, don't get me wrong.  You raised appropriate questions.  And, after this exhibition, I'd say you hit on the biggest question mark -- the bench.  There's no question Leslee added an element that we don't have otherwise.  We're not going to see his steals from the 5 position like we did last year.  He has such great, quick hands.  Plus he could do some things on the offensive end that Moses isn't likely to contribute.  Leslee, for instance, doesn't miss that point blank shot that Moses missed.

 

Having said that, I think Tai answered his doubters tonight in a resounding way.  Don't have to wonder if Tai has improved.  He's just all over the place better than a year ago.  The only question is whether the improvement in other spots can make up for losing Leslee.  You wouldn't think one back-up player would make that much difference, but you'd be surprised.

[lanigan123]

I did not like Mosses on O, but he appears to be a very good rebounder. I think that will help. Petteway will be fine, I think we will learn we won't have to "lean" on him as much. The supporting cast has gotten better from Benny, to Tai and David. I was wrong on Benny. He will be a legend as a 6th man. Tough kid, hard worker. Nebraska now requires everyone to be guarded. We will have to work on playing offense, teams are gonna make us hit shots.