Speaking of Kenpom ...

[Norm Peterson]

Yes, we were speaking of Kenpom.  At least I was.  Over in another thread.

 

Anyway, I just went to his blog and was scanning articles trying to find something related to what I was posting about in that other thread (his projections for next year based on last year) when I came across this:  http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/three_point_accuracy_by_shot_angle

 

Now, from what I understand, Tim Miles subscribes to Kenpom.  He's a coach who apparently loves to devour statistics -- from what I've understood.  And this is a statistic I find very interesting.

 

The stats in the above-linked article chart the differences in 3 point shooting accuracy depending on where on the floor the shot is being taken.  Corners are best (almost 38%), wings are worst (just better than 34%) and top of the key is somewhere in between (just over 35%.)

 

But the corners are clearly, and perhaps signficantly, the best spots on the floor from which to launch your 3 point shot.

 

Now, I'm thinking back to some Creighton games during the Altman era (or Oregon games after he moved there.)  One of the things that his offenses were designed to do is get a shooter open in the corner.  He'd spot up a shooter in the weakside corner and have the ballhandler penetrate either from the wing or along the baseline, draw help defense, and kick for that corner 3.

 

There are probably stats somewhere that show what percentage of 3 point attempts Altman's teams took (take) from the corner compared to other spots along the arc.  And I'm guessing it's a majority.

 

And the reason I bring this up is because I just don't remember Nebraska teams ever deliberately dialing up that corner shot.  Altman's teams did it all the time.  We didn't.  And during that stretch when we had Doc and Collier, we lost more than our fair share of ballgames to them, including some close ones in Lincoln where the difference might have been an open three from the corner.

 

Now, baseball has long used intensive study of statistics to inform a manager's strategic decisions about a game.  Batters know going into a game the pitcher's tendencies and the likelihood they'll see good first pitches, how often they follow fastball strikes with a change up, etc.  I'm not sure basketball has leveraged statistics as much.

 

But when I read this article, with concrete evidence, hard statistical data, showing an advantage to shooting perimeter shots from the corner, the first thing that popped into my mind was Dana Altman and how his players would drive the baseline and kick to the open shooter in the opposite corner, or drive the lane from the wing and kick to the opposite corner.  And how those shots always seemed to be daggers to us.

 

It's a 3.5% swing in made shots.  That's enough to make a mediocre shooter look pretty good.  And over the course of a season where an average team might take 250 3-pointers, that's a difference of ... 

 

OK, so it's only a difference of about 26 points on the season.

 

But spread those 26 points out over some close games and you'd turn some losers into winners for sure.  And one extra win this season might make the difference between being on the outside of the bubble looking in versus getting your dance card punched.

 

Question:  Does Miles' motion offense allow his shooters to exploit the corners? 

[FredsSlacks]

It didn't last year, but that's because I don't think we had a point guard to penetrate the lane and kick it to the corner. Hopefully that changes with Biggs and Webster*

[cipsucks]

Norm, if you had a son, he'd look like Leo Tolstoy.  

[tcp]

when we had Ryan, Bear and Paul with Doc we did the same thing, especially with Bear in the game. The percentage of shots taken and made from those ranges are also dependent on the shooters percentage of makes relative to other scoring opportunities on the floor for any given team. But when we had spot up shooters good enough to justify integrated them into an offense, we certainly did run those types of plays, as do most teams. The set, spot-up 3 is a pretty basic staple of basketball, I would think. Maybe we can talk Dean into weighing in here.

 

Truth is, getting kids that have a statistically plus 3 shot that *also* have a reliably quick release to get that shot off regularly with an acceptable percentage of success is easier said than done. Most of our previous shooters could make the shot, but were often not quick enough to set and shoot before the defense could react to them (remember Paul's surprising season? Shots kept getting harder and harder to get off for him).

 

I would assume that every coach is going to want their offense to emphasize the high percentage scoring ply they can make on a reasonably consistent basis. If all you have is a bunch of 15 foot jump shooters, that's probably what your offense is going to emphasize: a ton of 15 foot picks to free up a jumper at the desirable range.

 

For some reason, this post makes me want nachos. I'll stop now.

[Dean Smith]

A strength of the motion offense is it is unscoutable because it is unpredictable. A weakness (for some) is the coach concedes power to the players on the floor. Now there are a lot of variations and you can emphasis what you want. Ex: some are mostly cuts & some emphasis picks. You can let anyone or no one pick the ball.

I had a handful of quick hitters designed to get specific people specific shots (coach K's motion) that if nothing materialized immediately you are then making motion reads. Based on a scouting report you can do certain actions that lead to defensive reactions that allows you to get what you want.

Mac will run at least 50 plays a year at Creighton but everyone of them will have shots taken from the same specific spots such as the corner 3. His teams then practice from these spots over & over. He then has much control over what happens on the floor & it is hard to go through 50 plays in a scouting report.

Everyone has their own ideas & priorities. I always thought it was better to teach kids to play than to teach them plays but each style has its own strengths & weaknesses.

[hhcmatt]

Now, from what I understand, Tim Miles subscribes to Kenpom.  He's a coach who apparently loves to devour statistics -- from what I've understood.  And this is a statistic I find very interesting.

 

I utilize Kenpom.com as a big resource for previewing and predicting the games. I found listening to Miles talk during pre and post game interviews he would bring up exactly the same things that the stats would indicate.

[trickey]

 

Now, from what I understand, Tim Miles subscribes to Kenpom.  He's a coach who apparently loves to devour statistics -- from what I've understood.  And this is a statistic I find very interesting.

 

I utilize Kenpom.com as a big resource for previewing and predicting the games. I found listening to Miles talk during pre and post game interviews he would bring up exactly the same things that the stats would indicate.

 

What do you think of utilizing Kent Pavelka?

 

[hugh42]

 

 

Now, from what I understand, Tim Miles subscribes to Kenpom.  He's a coach who apparently loves to devour statistics -- from what I've understood.  And this is a statistic I find very interesting.

 

I utilize Kenpom.com as a big resource for previewing and predicting the games. I found listening to Miles talk during pre and post game interviews he would bring up exactly the same things that the stats would indicate.

 

What do you think of utilizing Kent Pavelka?

 

 

 

Kenpom.....Kentpav??  It's close, why not?  

[Norm Peterson]

Should be a lot more athletic.  Will definitely be deeper.  Question whether we have a guy who can do as much all around as Dylan Talley.  And will they shoot more threes from the corner?

[49r]

[Dean Smith]

Should be a lot more athletic. Will definitely be deeper. Question whether we have a guy who can do as much all around as Dylan Talley. And will they shoot more threes from the corner?

I know statistics are what they are, but its not the same favorite shot for everyone. The NBA corner three is a closer shot but NCAA is the same all around. Not a great shooter myself but my % is much higher from the top than the corner & I know others who are the same. Statistics are numbers that can help but people have brains that are screwy so not every shooter will have a higher % from the corners.

[hhcmatt]

 

Should be a lot more athletic. Will definitely be deeper. Question whether we have a guy who can do as much all around as Dylan Talley. And will they shoot more threes from the corner?

I know statistics are what they are, but its not the same favorite shot for everyone. The NBA corner three is a closer shot but NCAA is the same all around. Not a great shooter myself but my % is much higher from the top than the corner & I know others who are the same. Statistics are numbers that can help but people have brains that are screwy so not every shooter will have a higher % from the corners.

 

 

Sounds like we don't have to worry about creating space in the corners.

I knew that the NBA 3 was closer from the corners so thanks for the confirmation about the NCAA 3.