What would our record be?

[Norm Peterson]

Just curious how much of a difference people think the only weather-related cancellation in program history might have had on things.

[hskr4life]

Just looking at the exponential growth of our Freshman QB, I think it'd be a lot different.

[Huskerpapa]

Tough to hide some of the areas that we are weak.  That said, I do think we would be at or near .500.  

[HB]

Seems to me 4-5 or 5-4.  I voted 5-4, thinking we beat Akron, CU, Troy, MN, and BC.    If we want to assume Martinez gets hurt in the 4th quarter of the first game (as actually happened), then I might go with 4-5.   

[HuskerFever]

I'm not a fan of this logic as there are just too many variables in play and most people focus heavily on the ones that benefit them the most.

 

Had we played the Akron game, sure we'd have more experience under our belts. But we'd also give Colorado some game film to make adjustments. Sure, we we're expecting to beat Akron. But what if our inexperience stepped in and we lost that game?

 

I look at it more as these are the cards that we have dealt, and had we done more about preventing crucial late game situation penalties and had been better prepared with fundamentals before the season began, we'd be in a much better position. And had we done those things, I'm convinced that we would have had a chance to beat Colorado, Troy, and Northwestern and cleanly beat Minnesota and Bethune-Cookman. So sitting around 5-4 or 4-5 at this point.

[Norm Peterson]

10 minutes ago, HB said:

Seems to me 4-5 or 5-4.  I voted 5-4, thinking we beat Akron, CU, Troy, MN, and BC.    If we want to assume Martinez gets hurt in the 4th quarter of the first game (as actually happened), then I might go with 4-5.   

 

If we had played Akron, we don't play Bethune Cookman.

 

I agree.  I think we'd be 5-4.  I think we beat Akron, work out some of the kinks and are better when we face Colorado, and pull that one out.  I think we would then have beaten Troy.  We'd have been 3-0 going into Ann Arbor, gotten our butts handed to us by Michigan, but we'd have rebounded with some swagger against Purdue.  

 

If we had been able to play against Akron, I think we win either Purdue or Northwestern, and possibly both.  And I think we'd have three more shots at being bowl eligible, needing to win just one more game to get there.

 

We'd probably have wins against Akron, CU, Troy, Purdue or Northwestern, and Minnesota.  I think we'll beat Illinois either way, but that would have made us bowl-eligible.

 

As it is, I think getting 5 wins is still in the cards.  The offense that hung 31 on Ohio State is continuing to improve.  The question is whether our defense can stop anyone.  But, in our final 3 games, I think we can probably outscore whatever those guys can do and I think we can go on a 3-game run to end the year.  Oddly, 5-7 might get us into a bowl game this year, which would be amazing, especially considering we'd be a far better team than our record would reflect.

[AuroranHusker]

Likely a bowl eligible team by the end of the season. That's the crux of the matter. Ughh.

 

 

[Norm Peterson]

16 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

I'm not a fan of this logic as there are just too many variables in play and most people focus heavily on the ones that benefit them the most.

 

Had we played the Akron game, sure we'd have more experience under our belts. But we'd also give Colorado some game film to make adjustments. Sure, we we're expecting to beat Akron. But what if our inexperience stepped in and we lost that game?

 

I look at it more as these are the cards that we have dealt, and had we done more about preventing crucial late game situation penalties and had been better prepared with fundamentals before the season began, we'd be in a much better position. And had we done those things, I'm convinced that we would have had a chance to beat Colorado, Troy, and Northwestern and cleanly beat Minnesota and Bethune-Cookman. So sitting around 5-4 or 4-5 at this point.

 

I think you underestimate the value of getting your feet wet.  Ohio State had a crap ton of game film on us and look how we did with them.  I don't think giving CU one extra game to look at us would have given them as much of an advantage as having a game under our belts would have helped us.

 

With a new coaching staff and totally new schemes, we needed the experience of that first game before facing CU.  It's just crazy bad luck that the only weather cancellation in more than a century of football happens at the worst imaginable moment: what would have represented a probable win for the team in the first game of the first season of a new coaching staff.  Could have happened at virtually any other time in program history and it wouldn't have had the impact I believe it's had.

[HB]

3 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

If we had played Akron, we don't play Bethune Cookman.

 

Whoops, I knew that!  

[AuroranHusker]

1 minute ago, HB said:

Whoops, I knew that!  

 

I'd contend Nebraska deserved a 13th game after three crappy years of Riley-isms! GBR !!!

 

 

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I think you underestimate the value of getting your feet wet.  Ohio State had a crap ton of game film on us and look how we did with them.  I don't think giving CU one extra game to look at us would have given them as much of an advantage as having a game under our belts would have helped us.

 

With a new coaching staff and totally new schemes, we needed the experience of that first game before facing CU.  It's just crazy bad luck that the only weather cancellation in more than a century of football happens at the worst imaginable moment: what would have represented a probable win for the team in the first game of the first season of a new coaching staff.  Could have happened at virtually any other time in program history and it wouldn't have had the impact I believe it's had.

 

Yeah I don't disagree that we needed a game like that early on. That's the very unfortunate part. And it took us four games to get rid of loose change, get to a winning mentality, and start getting some confidence. Had we not had that winless tag on us, maybe we find more wins. As I mentioned in another thread, I don't think Frost kicks the field goal and plays defense against Northwestern had we not been fighting for that first win.

 

But my point is that, sure we play Akron and get extra time for a bye week to prepare for Ohio State. But we could also start 0-6 in that scenario as well. We don't have the pieces quite in place and Frost is disappointed with our conditioning, drop one to Akron, lose confidence and drop to Colorado, say Martinez gets injured and we lose to Troy, and so on.

 

We could be as much a 5-4 team this year as a 2-7 team with this schedule. And had we played Akron we could be as much of a 2-7 team as a 5-4 as well.

[AuroranHusker]

The good thing is that this season was always a 'process' year, at least it was in my book.  As in the mantra, Trust the Process. A lot of things have had to be cleaned up in the culture of the program. I never worried about the record in year one. Of course a nice bowl season -- however hard that would be to do -- is always looked at as a sweet reward for the hard-working kids who have been playing for Nebraska. Let's see how these final 3 go, I have a feeling that Nebraska has a decent opportunity to salvage a semblance of momentum in the 2nd half-season of the 2018 NU schedule. GBR

 

[FredsSlacks]

5-4 if we play the akron game and martinez never gets hurt,

 

but i think this team is going to be better off in the future because of the adversity they've gone through.

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by TimSmiles

[hskr4life]

7 hours ago, TimSmiles said:

5-4 if we play the akron game and martinez never gets hurt,

 

but i think this team is going to be better off in the future because of the adversity they've gone through.

 

 

Yep.  This.  In a way, it might have been good for these first years Frost players to taste the sour taste of defeat and have to fight back.

[nustudent]

15 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Just curious how much of a difference people think the only weather-related cancellation in program history might have had on things.

 

Think we'd have 3 more wins.  

 

More than anything, this program was so broken mentally when Frost inherited it.   It needed a shot of confidence.   It almost came against CU...but the tough loss combined with losing Martinez led to the loss to Troy which steamrolled into the 'here we go again' route.

 

 

[Norm Peterson]

1 hour ago, nustudent said:

Think we'd have 3 more wins.  

 

More than anything, this program was so broken mentally when Frost inherited it.   It needed a shot of confidence.   It almost came against CU...but the tough loss combined with losing Martinez led to the loss to Troy which steamrolled into the 'here we go again' route.

 

I think this is exactly what happened.

 

And while I'm not into moral victories, the Ohio State game has to be a confidence boost, especially to the players who were around under Riley.  To see that they can hold their own against an Ohio State program that steamrolled them the last two years has to tell them if they do their job, they can go toe-to-toe with anyone.

 

Upset alert on the Michigan State game.  I could see us running the tables from here on out.

[nustudent]

1 minute ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I think this is exactly what happened.

 

And while I'm not into moral victories, the Ohio State game has to be a confidence boost, especially to the players who were around under Riley.  To see that they can hold their own against an Ohio State program that steamrolled them the last two years has to tell them if they do their job, they can go toe-to-toe with anyone.

 

Upset alert on the Michigan State game.  I could see us running the tables from here on out.

I'll be happy with 2-1.

 

Our offense is coming along nicely, though, I'm still not sold on our OL against good fronts.  Still don't think our defense is very good/talented.   Really wish we could fast forward the next 10 months.   I don't think teams will want to play us next year.

[Norm Peterson]

Frost is definitely playing chess, not checkers, with that offense.  That pass to Austin Allen where they used Ozigbo as bait in the flat and then rolled Allen wide open down the sideline was tactically brilliant.  And that's only one example of many, many you could point to.

[nustudent]

25 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Frost is definitely playing chess, not checkers, with that offense.  That pass to Austin Allen where they used Ozigbo as bait in the flat and then rolled Allen wide open down the sideline was tactically brilliant.  And that's only one example of many, many you could point to.

Offensively...I'm not worried.

I think Frost is a likely genius there.  Another reason for a TO comparison.

[HuskerFever]

25 minutes ago, nustudent said:

Offensively...I'm not worried.

I think Frost is a likely genius there.  Another reason for a TO comparison.

 

We're in good company.

 

 

[Huskerpapa]

Yeah, offensively we are very good, and we will eventually be great.  Defensively, we are below average and with the right players fitting into the system, we can be good (which is great when matched with our offense).  The third phase of the game, special teams, we are bottom feeders.  Goodness, there seems to be a lot that needs fixing.  A lot.

 

Granted, the above does not answer the IF question, but does tell me that even with a better start to the season, at best we would hover around that .500 mark.  

[Norm Peterson]

Was talking with a guy about this notion of how many games we might have won had we been able to play Akron the opening night and get that game out of the way first.

 

He made an interesting point.  Said that Frost cost us the Northwestern game and that Riley or Pelini would have won that game, up ten with 4 minutes (or whatever) to play.  So, I found a 40 minute video of the NU vs. NWU game and I'm not sure agree that it's on Frost that we lost that game.  Northwestern had two long scoring drives in a row to tie the game and send it to OT.  In between those two, we had a 3-and-out where we ran the ball to burn clock.  But they held us and we punted and got the ball down to the 1 yard line.  They went 99 yards with less than a full allotment of timeouts, picked up 4th and ten twice, and scored.  

 

That's luck, not simply Frost getting out-coached.  I do not fault Frost for running the ball to burn clock; exactly what Riley didn't do when we lost at Illinois his first season.

 

And, as for Bo, he had his own experience snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in his first season.  Anyone remember this?:

 

 

[HuskerFever]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Northwestern had two long scoring drives in a row to tie the game and send it to OT.

 

Don't forget that we had them pinned in the 5 and we gave up a 15 yard penalty to give them some spacing. I'm not sure what down it was, but we just can't be giving up free yards and more opportunities.

 

Also, thanks for the reminder of that Virginia Tech game. Somehow I was able to blank that out of my memory.

[AuroranHusker]

3 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Was talking with a guy about this notion of how many games we might have won had we been able to play Akron the opening night and get that game out of the way first.

 

He made an interesting point.  Said that Frost cost us the Northwestern game and that Riley or Pelini would have won that game, up ten with 4 minutes (or whatever) to play.  So, I found a 40 minute video of the NU vs. NWU game and I'm not sure agree that it's on Frost that we lost that game.  Northwestern had two long scoring drives in a row to tie the game and send it to OT.  In between those two, we had a 3-and-out where we ran the ball to burn clock.  But they held us and we punted and got the ball down to the 1 yard line.  They went 99 yards with less than a full allotment of timeouts, picked up 4th and ten twice, and scored.  

 

That's luck, not simply Frost getting out-coached.  I do not fault Frost for running the ball to burn clock; exactly what Riley didn't do when we lost at Illinois his first season.

 

And, as for Bo, he had his own experience snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in his first season.  Anyone remember this?:

 

 

 

I have a full recall of that. That's the same Ndamukong Suh who should have let Colt McCoy flail late to run out the clock in the Big 12 title game.... at Va Tech, Suh should have pressured Tyrod Taylor hard but didn't. NU lost both by the skin of its teeth. Ughh

[royalfan]

We would have been a bowl team IMO