KenPom 2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread

[Norm Peterson]

2 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

You know it isn't that we are going to be bad, it is that this league is just going to be very good.

 

If I read all these preseason things correctly.  104 or so isn't horrible coming off of last year and everybody knowing that Tai is gone.

 

True, if what you're talking about is how some outsider is evaluating us in the pre-season.

 

But that is NOT going to be an acceptable finish to the year.

[Norm Peterson]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

 

 

 

104. Nebraska Cornhuskers

The coaching staff has confidence in the roster, but losing Tai Webster is going to be a challenge the Huskers have to overcome with the likes of Glynn Watson Jr. (pivotal piece) and freshman Icelandic cult hero in the making, Thorir Thorbjarnarson. What. A. Name. 

 

 

[49r]

28 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

You know it isn't that we are going to be bad, it is that this league is just going to be very good.

 

If I read all these preseason things correctly.  104 or so isn't horrible coming off of last year and everybody knowing that Tai is gone.

 

Well, not really Silver...

 

If you go by KenPom's rankings, Penn State (picked smack dab in the middle of the B1G) would finish next to last in the Big 12.  Top 4 Wisconsin wouldn't even make it to the top half of the Big 12.

 

This year, the Big Ten is just kinda average.

 

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference		Rating	Conference		Rating
1	Big 12 Conference	+18.54	17	Horizon League	-2.59
2	Big East Conference	+15.05	18	Summit League	-3.38
3	Southeastern Conference	+14.93	19	Patriot League	-3.81
4	Atlantic Coast Conference	+14.68	20	Conference USA	-4.12
5	Big Ten Conference	+13.77	21	Western Athletic Conference	-4.82
6	Pac 12 Conference	+10.71	22	America East Conference	-4.82
7	American Athletic Conference	+7.82	23	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference	-4.83
8	Atlantic 10 Conference	+3.34	24	Ohio Valley Conference	-5.19
9	Mountain West Conference	+3.05	25	Big South Conference	-6.09
10	Missouri Valley Conference	+2.99	26	Big Sky Conference	-6.68
11	Colonial Athletic Association	+0.52	27	Big West Conference	-7.29
12	West Coast Conference	+0.50	28	Southland Conference	-7.97
13	Ivy League	-0.44	29	Atlantic Sun Conference	-8.38
14	Sun Belt Conference	-0.91	30	Northeast Conference	-11.39
15	Southern Conference	-1.68	31	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference	-16.70
16	Mid American Conference	-2.24	32	Southwestern Athletic Conference	-17.98

[49r]

The Big 12 (if the preseason rankings hold true) could see 8 or 9 teams in the tourney and the other one or two in the NIT.  Now, THAT is a strong conference.

Edited October 25, 2017 by 49r

[AuroranHusker]

4 hours ago, 49r said:

The Big 12 (if the preseason rankings hold true) could see 8 or 9 teams in the tourney and the other one or two in the NIT.  Now, THAT is a strong conference.

 

I will go on record as saying that scenario will *not* happen in 2018. But, I'd imagine the ten-team Big 12 will have more tourney teams per capita than the 14-team Big Ten.

[NU Follower]

Living in Iowa, I fully expect Iowa State to be down this year.  If NU doesn't 'win' the secret scrimmage I'd be really disappointed.  Iowa will also be much better than Iowa State.  ISU is ranked that high in the pre-season based on their performance the past 3-4 years.  It wouldn't surprise me to see ISU's kenpom ranking be greater than 85 at the end of the season.

[49r]

On 10/24/2017 at 11:37 AM, 49r said:

PSA for stats geeks out there.  Ken Pomeroy will be fielding questions on Reddit this Thursday at Noon CST.  Could be a fun time....if you're into that kind of thing....

 

 

 

Don't forget, KenPom will answer your questions in an hour!

[49r]

18 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

 

 

Norlander responds to whiny fans on Reddit with "what do you expect from me?".

 

 

[49r]

 

[49r]

In the interest of making the standings a little simpler to read I changed up the formatting, so for now I have moved the season starting ranking to after the team name but kept the color coding.  Red indicates an NCAA tourney team from last year, Blue indicates NIT.  Now that is out of the way, here is the KenPom rankings update after game 1!  Two changes of note today, Maryland jumps ahead of Penn State and Nebraska slips behind Illinois.

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-12-17

==========================

 

B1G (0-0):

9. Michigan State (10)

17. Purdue (17)

29. Northwestern (18)

31. Wisconsin (31)

35. Michigan (32)

36. Minnesota (36)

39. Maryland (41)

45. Penn State (40)

54. Iowa (54)

74. Ohio State (78)

78. Indiana (65)

92. Illinois (104)

102. Nebraska (98)

124. Rutgers (125)

 

Non-Conference (1-0):

195. Eastern Illinois - W

299. North Texas

 

---Gavitt Tip-Off---

55. @St. John's

 

218. North Dakota

 

---Advocare Invitational---

61. UCF F4

14. / 308. West Virginia / Marist

55. / 73. / 72. / 232. St. John's / Oregon State / Missouri / Long Beach State

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

94. Boston College

 

42. @Creighton

 

---Shelter Insurance Showcase---

5. Kansas

 

283. UTSA

347. Delaware State

312. Stetson

 

[hskr4life]

We dropped!  Shoot!  That road W at St. Johns should give us a bump though!  

[49r]

Northwestern had a nearly identical disappointing win as ours last night and they made a precipitous drop.

 

18 Northwestern 79, 257 Loyola MD 75 [80]

Friday, November 10, 2017 · 8:30 pm ET · Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 T Loyola MD 9 15 31 20 75 Northwestern 22 15 18 23 79

Loyola MDNorthwestern

              Loyola MD (0-1)               

		Name	Min	ORtg	%Ps	Pts	2PM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OR	DR	A	TO	Blk	Stl	PF
6-8 214 Sr	22	Cam Gregory	38	108	22	18	6-11	0-0	6-7	4	7	2	4	0	1	4
6-4 179 So	10	Andrew Kostecka	33	118	23	22	5-9	3-5	3-6	1	3	2	2	0	3	4
6-6 196 Jr	5	James Fives	30	99	12	5	0-2	1-2	2-2	3	8	2	2	0	1	3
6-0 170 Sr	2	Andre Walker	28	68	24	8	3-8	0-2	2-5	0	2	4	3	0	0	4
6-5 211 So	41	Ian Langendoerfer	11	82	15	3	0-1	0-2	3-3	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
5-11 179 Fr	0	Isaiah Hart	28	60	18	5	2-8	0-1	1-2	0	2	3	2	2	1	3
6-7 194 Fr	23	Brent Holcombe	23	99	21	13	0-3	4-5	1-2	1	2	0	3	0	0	5
6-0 186 Jr	4	Nevell Provo	5			0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2
6-2 180 Jr	15	Sam Norton	4			1	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
		Team								2	4		1
		TOTAL	200			75 0.94	16-42 .381	8-17 .471	19-29 .655	12 .293	32 .727	14 .583	18 .225	2 .050	6 .075	30
Largest lead: 8-4 (16:12 1st half).

              Northwestern (1-0)               

		Name	Min	ORtg	%Ps	Pts	2PM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OR	DR	A	TO	Blk	Stl	PF
6-3 200 Sr	30	Bryant McIntosh	38	97	26	16	4-8	0-5	8-8	2	2	7	4	1	3	1
6-5 210 Sr	20	Scottie Lindsey MVP	35	113	26	26	5-9	4-11	4-8	1	8	0	0	1	1	2
6-7 200 Jr	4	Vic Law	35	96	17	12	3-8	1-4	3-5	1	6	1	0	3	0	4
6-8 235 Jr	5	Dererk Pardon	29	98	26	16	6-9	0-0	4-10	5	2	0	3	3	0	4
6-8 235 Sr	44	Gavin Skelly	19	72	10	3	1-1	0-0	1-2	0	2	1	2	2	1	4
6-2 190 So	12	Isiah Brown	14	108	13	4	1-2	0-0	2-2	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
6-4 205 Fr	11	Anthony Gaines	12	42	23	2	0-2	0-0	2-2	0	1	1	3	0	0	4
6-10 240 So	25	Barret Benson	10	18	13	0	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	5	1	1	2	0	4
6-3 200 Jr	23	Jordan Ash	8			0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
		Team								3	2		1
		TOTAL	200			79 0.99	20-40 .500	5-21 .238	24-37 .649	12 .273	29 .707	13 .520	15 .188	12 .286	5 .062	25
Largest lead: 41-24 (19:17 2nd half). Minimum win probability: 83.3% (trailed 66-65, 04:18 2nd half).

[hhcmatt]

4 hours ago, hskr4life said:

We dropped!  Shoot!  That road W at St. Johns should give us a bump though!  

 

Beating North Texas by more tahn 15 would help

[HuskerFever]

14 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

Beating North Texas by more tahn 15 would help

 

But just about anything else will hurt, right?

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, HuskerFever said:

 

But just about anything else will hurt, right?

 

Yup. Kenpom expects us to win by 15. You beat the expectations, you can move up. You don't, you move down. 

[49r]

Not as much movement as I had hoped, but we are in the double digits and switched spots with the Illini.

 

 

---

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-14-17

==========================

 

B1G (0-0):

10. Michigan State (10)

16. Purdue (17)

23. Wisconsin (31)

30. Minnesota (36)

32. Northwestern (18)

36. Maryland (41)

40. Michigan (32)

43. Penn State (40)

52. Iowa (54)

74. Ohio State (78)

84. Indiana (65)

99. Nebraska (98)

103. Illinois (104)

147. Rutgers (125)

 

Non-Conference (2-0):

197. Eastern Illinois - W

300. North Texas - W

 

---Gavitt Tip-Off---

54. @St. John's

 

219. North Dakota

 

---Advocare Invitational---

61. UCF

14. / 309. West Virginia / Marist

54. / 69. / 76. / 230. St. John's / Missouri / Oregon State / Long Beach State

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

91. Boston College

 

41. @Creighton

 

---Shelter Insurance Showcase---

4. Kansas

 

284. UTSA

347. Delaware State

308. Stetson

[hhcmatt]

LOL at Evan Taylor's FT rate which is #6 in the nation.

I've never seen numbers that high for anyone and they'll level out once more games are played.

 

[jayschool]

So here's a thing about our schedule, if you define major conference as including the Power 5, the Big East and the American. Not projecting second- or third-round tournament games, Nebraska plays more major non-conference opponents than anyone else in the Big Ten. And we play only one SWAC, MEAC, WAC team. Illinois, Iowa and Maryland have four of those games. So by this narrow definition, we have the toughest schedule in the conference, and yet we're supposed to be the second-worst team.

Big Ten major non-conference foes (#): Name
ILLINOIS (3): DePaul, Wake Forest, Missouri
INDIANA (4): Seton Hall, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame
IOWA (3): Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Colorado
MARYLAND (2): Butler, Syracuse
MICHIGAN (4): LSU, North Carolina, UCLA, Texas
MICHIGAN STATE (3): Duke, DePaul, Notre Dame
MINNESOTA (4): Providence, Miami, Alabama, Arkansas
NEBRASKA (5): St. John's, UCF, Boston College, Creighton, Kansas
NORTHWESTERN (4): Creighton, Georgia Tech, DePaul, Oklahoma
OHIO STATE (2): Gonzaga, North Carolina
PENN STATE (2): Pitt, NC State
PURDUE (4): Marquette, Tennessee, Louisville, Butler
RUTGERS (2): Florida State, Seton Hall
WISCONSIN (4): Xavier, Baylor, Virginia, Marquette

Big Ten WAC, MEAC, SWAC and Division II foes (#): Name
ILLINOIS (4): Southern, NC Central, NM State, Grand Canyon
INDIANA (1): Howard
IOWA (4): Chicago State, Alabama State, Grambling, Southern
MARYLAND (4): MD-Eastern Shore, Jackson State, Catholic U.
MICHIGAN (1): Alabama A&M
MICHIGAN STATE (2): Houston Baptist, Savannah State
MINNESOTA (1): Alabama A&M
NEBRASKA (1): Delaware State
NORTHWESTERN (2): Chicago State, Lewis College
OHIO STATE (1): Texas Southern
PENN STATE (1): Coppin State
PURDUE (1): Chicago State
RUTGERS (2): CCNY, Coppin State
WISCONSIN (2): South Carolina State, Chicago State

So the Nebraska-never-plays-anybody trope is old AND inaccurate, especially for a team that is predicted to finish 13th in a 14-team conference and needs all the wins and confidence it can get.

[TourneyBound]

really think the St. Johns game and UCF game are huge games for us.  really need to win both!!!  Will be tough to do though

[AuroranHusker]

8 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

really think the St. Johns game and UCF game are huge games for us.  really need to win both!!!  Will be tough to do though

 

And beating UCF will likely mean two more difficult games in the Orlando tourney against a West Virginia squad & whoever else after that in the "winner's side" of the bracket.

 

[hhcmatt]

12 minutes ago, jayschool said:

So by this narrow definition, we have the toughest schedule in the conference, and yet we're supposed to be the second-worst team.

 

Scheduling tough doesn't make you a good team

[49r]

It's been my biggest complaint about the Miles era over the last few years.  I think he's drastically over-scheduled and it has really hurt us.  Give us Northwestern's non-con instead and I think you'd see a lot different results.

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, 49r said:

It's been my biggest complaint about the Miles era over the last few years.  I think he's drastically over-scheduled and it has really hurt us.  Give us Northwestern's non-con instead and I think you'd see a lot different results.

 

I'd make an argument that their tissue soft schedule two years ago gave them no chance to make the tourney. 

 

It looks like we scheduling bad enough bad teams during Christmas. Is North Dakota with 6 prep days going to come in and run us over on a Sunday at 1 pm in between the St Johns and UCF game?  That team has the look of those UNO run and gun squads. Do we not schedule Kansas? Last year was overkill, especially with no White, but we're scheduling like a team trying to make the tourney, not rack up wins for Miles' record.

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, hhcdimes said:

 

I'd make an argument that their tissue soft schedule two years ago gave them no chance to make the tourney. 

 

It looks like we scheduling bad enough bad teams during Christmas. Is North Dakota with 6 prep days going to come in and run us over on a Sunday at 1 pm in between the St Johns and UCF game?  That team has the look of those UNO run and gun squads. Do we not schedule Kansas? Last year was overkill, especially with no White, but we're scheduling like a team trying to make the tourney, not rack up wins for Miles' record.

 

I can appreciate Miles style on this. Win 18+ games by scheduling to 'get in' & then win when you're 'in.' (*If only it were that simple to execute the plan...)

[jayschool]

2 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Scheduling tough doesn't make you a good team

Didn't intend to IMPLY that it did. By writing "yet we're supposed to be the second-worst team," I meant simply that we have an even steeper hill to climb.

Tough schedule + bad team (allegedly) = Bad results.

Edited November 14, 2017 by jayschool