Game Day Essentials: Game #26 at Penn State

Penn St. Info

Head Coach: Mike Rhodes (year 2)
Location: University Park, PA
Conference: B1G
Nickname: Nittany Lions

Mascot: The Nittany Lion

Line: Nebraska by 1

Last Time Out: Lost to Washington

Typical Rotation Depth: 7+

KenPom rank: 75

Nota bene:  

• Mike Rhoades came to Penn St from VCU but he grew up in central Pennsylvania where he attended basketball camps at Penn St and was a D-III star guard 
• Ace Baldwin and Nick Kern followed Mike Rhodes from VCU to Penn St
• Penn St brought back most of their veteran squad from last season. They rank 29th in KenPom minutes continuity and 57th in D-1 experience
• Penn St played the 358th "hardest" non-con schedule, only exceeded by Maryland's 360th ranking out of 364 D-1 teams
• Former Husker Eli Rice transferred to Penn St but was limited to 1 game due to injury
• Mike Rhodes confirmed that a hand injury suffered on Jan 16th by Puff Johnson will keep him out the rest of the season

Player to watch: Ace Baldwin 

The 5th year senior leads the Lions in points, assists, and steals. Baldwin at best is a streaky shooter since injuring his back in early January, but gets to the FT line at a similar rate to Brice Williams. Look for him to try his hand at guarding Williams as one of the best on-ball defenders in the conference. 

Player to watch: Zach Hicks

Easily the biggest 3pt threat on a team that lacks them, Hicks is shooting 39.7% from deep with 62 makes. Hicks' numbers from deep mirror what Connor Essegian has accomplished from deep this season with the caveat that Hicks plays more minutes and thus isn't as aggressive a scorer as Connor.

Player to watch: Yanic Konan Niederhauser

The Swiss center is the sort of shot blocker you need to anchor your rim in this pressure heavy defense and currently leads the conference at 2.1 per game. Lead the Nittany Lions in rebounds and Baldwin is able to weaponize him into 12.2 points per game.  Like most centers, YKN fouls a lot but draws contact on the other end

Penn State's Roster

Roster/infirmary report

9    Forward    Berke Büyüktuncel     6-10    244 lbs   Sophomore - Ankle OUT

Possible starters for Nebraska

3    Guard    Brice Williams     6-7    214 lbs    Senior

4    Forward    Juwan Gary     6-6    226 lbs    Senior

24    Guard    Rollie Worster     6-5    210 lbs    Senior

23    Forward    Andrew Morgan     6-10    242 lbs    Senior 

1    Guard    Sam Hoiberg     6-0    185 lbs    Junior

Bench

0    Guard    Connor Essegian     6-4    190 lbs    Junior

2    Guard    Ahron Ulis     6-3    190 lbs    Senior

34    Center    Braxton Meah     7-1    264 lbs    Senior

31    Guard    Cale Jacobsen     6-4    195 lbs    Sophomore

12    Guard    Gavin Griffiths     6-7    193 lbs    Sophomore

5    Forward    Braden Frager     6-7    220 lbs    Freshman
8    Guard    Jeffrey Grace III     6-3    200 lbs    Junior
20    Forward    Justin Bolis     6-8    225 lbs    Sophomore
25    Guard    Nick Janowski     6-4    208 lbs    Freshman

35    Forward    Henry Burt     6-7    222 lbs    Sophomore

Out for year
51    Forward    Rienk Mast     6-10    260 lbs    Senior

The Skinny: 

Mike Rhodes is running the same sort of gambling type #RiskyRhodes pressure defense that has been successful at VCU for over a decade but likely would have gotten Brad Underwood fired had he not changed.  The B1G tends to be a league with ball handlers so despite the relative success of Rhodes Season 1, Penn State's style is likely one of the factors contributing to Penn State losing 11 of their last 12 games. Injuries and illness, including Ace Baldwin's bad back, also contribute to a lack of firepower and inability to hold a lead.  Not really sure that the team that beat Purdue by 11 is still in there.

The Penn St defense is built around generating steals and Nebraska is at least competent in this hanging onto the ball. Expect to see more minutes from Ahron Ulis in this one, assuming he doesn't quickly play himself off the court again. Penn State's defense puts them out of position so there should be a chances for second chance points and Nebraska can win the rebounding margin.  Open 3s are available against this squad so perhaps Connor Essegian recovers from a shooting/sickness slump.

Offensively Penn St is trying for easy buckets off of turnovers and pounding the offensive boards for second chance points.  The true test here will be how well Nebraska can handle Penn St pick and rolling towards the rim. Penn St is #1 in the conference in generating FTA/FGA while Nebraska is #1 at denying them.

Nebraska typically comes out of the gate slow whereas Penn State typically crumbles at some point.  While it would be nice to play ahead for the first time in a minute, anyway Nebraska can pull out a win on the road will be fine.

Prediction: Nebraska 79 - Penn State 73