Win probabilities?

[lanigan123]

What are the win probabilities of our remaining games?

[doc1394]

This according to rpiforecast.com    

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html

 

Date:                     Team                  Where?                 Winning Chances %              Spread

2-23                      Purdue                 Home                        68%                                   -3.0

2-26                      Illinois                   Away                         39%                                  +7.8

3-1                        Northwestern       Home                         77%                                   -3.6

3-5                        Indiana                 Away                         37%                                   +3.6

3-9                        Wisconsin            Home                         29%                                   +5.9

[TomEadesSucks]

I guessing that the computers said we had a less than 1% chance of winning our last 4 games. What do computers know about heart?

[Norm Peterson]

I guessing that the computers said we had a less than 1% chance of winning our last 4 games. What do computers know about heart?

Computers cannot evaluate intangibles.  That's because intangibles aren't, well, tangible.  They don't reduce to data points that can be inputted into a database for analysis.  But they matter a great deal.  They can help a team like Nebraska beat a team like Michigan State on the road.

[HuskerFever]

49r, what's the overall record probability? Have always enjoyed seeing those.

[doc1394]

49r, what's the overall record probability? Have always enjoyed seeing those.

I'm not 49r, but here it is:

 

Final Record            Expected RPI            Probability

20-10                          35.0                            2.20%

19-11                          43.5                           14.22%

18-12                          53.9                           33.30%

17-13                          67.5                           34.09%

16-14                          81.4                           14.04%

15-15                          94.6                             2.14%

[HuskerFever]

Who knew we'd only have a 2.14% chance of going .500 for the season...

[doc1394]

Who knew we'd only have a 2.14% chance of going .500 for the season...

Must have been a really rough year

[hskr4life]

Maybe 30 percent chance at dancing... That's taking half of the 18-12

[AuroranHusker]

Maybe 30 percent chance at dancing... That's taking half of the 18-12

 

Depends on other bubblicious teams, but I'd imagine the more wins NU get the less pins & needles we'll be sitting on come Selection Sunday!  Need to make it 7 W's out of 8 this Sunday, and go from there...

[HuskerFever]

 

Maybe 30 percent chance at dancing... That's taking half of the 18-12

 

Depends on other bubblicious teams, but I'd imagine the more wins NU get the less pins & needles we'll be sitting on come Selection Sunday!  Need to make it 7 W's out of 8 this Sunday, and go from there...

 

 

I had to re-read that... you're talking about the regular season, right? There's no way anybody could do that in B1G conference play. 

[AuroranHusker]

 

 

Maybe 30 percent chance at dancing... That's taking half of the 18-12

 

Depends on other bubblicious teams, but I'd imagine the more wins NU get the less pins & needles we'll be sitting on come Selection Sunday!  Need to make it 7 W's out of 8 this Sunday, and go from there...

 

 

I had to re-read that... you're talking about the regular season, right? There's no way anybody could do that in B1G conference play. 

 

 

Yeah, it's a pretty amazing run for a team that had been a 50/50 proposition to that point when NU was 1-5 in the B1G and 9-9 overall not that long ago.  Miles & Co. are doing a phenomenal job and the players have stepped up in their respective roles in a B1G way.  Let's keep it rollin' at the Vault!

[HuskerPower #nato73]

I have not seen anyone mention this site

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nebraska-cornhuskers/projections

Has some great stuff for you stat nerds like me

[lanigan123]

Wonder what the probabilities would be based on the last 5 games stats.

[Huskerpapa]

Can I simply state that I only worry about Purdue at this point.  I like our chances, but we need to be able to handle their bigs, especially if Walter cannot go.  Now, everyone can go back to the regularly scheduled posts.