Poor evaluations?

[Navin R. Johnson]

Here is a list of Nebraska high school kids that NU did not recruit out of high school that went on to have good enough college careers to make us question why we didn't recruit them.  Is it poor evaluation of talent?  Is it just the case of an athlete developing at a lower level because of getting minutes he might not have a NU?  If it's evaluation, I understand you will not hit on every local kid and all coaches miss on hidden gems but what has always been upsetting about Nebraska is all the out state kids we brought in that were also projects that didn't work out and if we had some of these kids instead, we would be a lot better off.  Now there is a chance, especially in today's game, that they would transfer out for more playing time someplace else but to see kids going to schools like Alabama, Missouri, Creighton and so on is really frustrating.  I'm probably leaving a few off this list but here are the local kids from the last few years.

 

Daum

Tonje

Wrightsell

Allick

Griesel

Scheierman

 

Maybe: Pal, Shiloh Robinson

 

 

[hhcmatt]

Few things

1. Would those guys have become the players they did if they came here and ended on the bench instead of immediate playing time?

2. For every guy you can come up with, I can probably come up with 2+ guys that didn't pan out

3. Mike Daum isn't eligible for 'why didn't Nebraska recruit this Nebraska guy' threads because his coaches at SDSU spent the first year thinking they made a mistake offering him a scholarship

 

Otherwise, Matt A wasn't offering any of these guys because Rivals didn't give them enough stars. Miles whiffed on Tonje. It would seem that things have changed as we have Jacobsen here and have 2 offers to 2025 guys ATM.

[basketballjones]

24 minutes ago, Navin R. Johnson said:

Daum

Tonje

Wrightsell

Allick

Griesel

Scheierman

 

Maybe: Pal, Shiloh Robinson

Griesel, Scheierman, and Tonje were straight up misses out of high school and a lot of people wanted them to get more serious looks. Allick developed, wasn't not a P5 D1 guy and the route he ended up worked out best for everyone. Kinda wish we woulda looked at him after UMKC but it is what it is. Wrightsell, same thing, and not sure I really wanted him even after transferring. Pal, Robinson - definitely not P5 guys out of High School and still might not be but I'm not sure. 

Daum - literally everyone in the nation missed on him. Including SDSU who redshirted him and considered giving him the boot. NAIAs missed on him and weren't sure if he was worth a full scholarship (trust me on that one). 

[Jacob Padilla]

I think the path each of those guys took played a big part in the players they became.

 

Griesel's evolution as a player probably doesn't happen at a higher level where he got to play right away as a hustle guy 3/4, then mid-career moved into a point guard role, then after three years developed into a really effective player as a senior that earned him the opportunity to make the leap to a high-major conference.

 

Similarly, I think the freedom Scheierman had early in his career playing against Summit League defenses as a primary initiator allowed him to develop into the dynamic player he became by the end of his time there. I know Matt thinks Creighton messed up by not running everything through him as the point guard, but he's just not dynamic enough physically to consistently create with the ball in his hands in the Big East like he did at the Summit level, though he eventually found a beter balance as the season went on between his on- and off-ball play. There was definitely a big adjustment period for him though.

 

Like Griesel, Tonje and especially Allick were both late bloomers in high school (Griesel was good early then exploded at the end like Tonje, whereas Allick played mostly JV his junior year). Tonje was always a shooter and a bouncy straight-line athlete, but his offensive game really expanded as a senior. Lateral quickness and ball-handling against athleticism were concerns, though. At CSU, John didn't play much as a freshman and wasn't particularly good when he did get a larger role as a sophomore. He broke through a bit as a junior and was their second-best player this past season as a senior. But he has one season out of four as a double-digit scorer in the Mountain West. Does he stick around for four years to become that if Nebraska takes him out of high school? 

 

Wrightsell didn't look anything like a high-major player his first two years at CSF, but a breakout year has earned him this opportunity to test himself in the SEC.

 

It's also worth noting that Griesel and Scheierman are the only ones on that list we've actually seen play a season at the high-major level to this point.

 

I think the conversation is far more nuanced than seeing guys have success elsewhere and saying Nebraska should have recruited them out of high school.

[Jacob Padilla]

I think Shereef Mitchell is an interesting case study up the road. Creighton gave him a chance even though other high-majors weren't offering. The injuries in 2021-22 completely derailed his career there, so it's not a perfect example, but while he played an important smaller role for them when he was healthy, his offensive game just never really developed the way I'm sure he wanted it to while playing at the highest level, and now he's transferred down to the MAC to continue his career.

[Navin R. Johnson]

10 minutes ago, Jacob Padilla said:

I think Shereef Mitchell is an interesting case study up the road. Creighton gave him a chance even though other high-majors weren't offering. The injuries in 2021-22 completely derailed his career there, so it's not a perfect example, but while he played an important smaller role for them when he was healthy, his offensive game just never really developed the way I'm sure he wanted it to while playing at the highest level, and now he's transferred down to the MAC to continue his career.

 

A big time scorer in high school and became more of a defensive minded player at Creighton.  As you said, I'm sure injuries held him back.

[Swan88]

Here are two football players the Huskers passed-on, knowingly, intentionally, and with no malice aforethought:

• Danny Woodhead (not big enough for NU and Frank Solich but good enough for the NFL); and
• Barry Sanders (Osborne figured we could take only one small running back that year and opted for Johnny Rodgers's son, instead, who promptly had a career-ending knee injury).

The old adage says: "Making predictions is hard, especially about the future."  

There will always be prediction mistakes in choosing among high school seniors.  You can never know who will suffer injury? Whose skill and physical capabilities will develop most?  Etc.

Identifying those mistakes in retrospect, and agonizing or casting blame over them, is a meaningless exercise in futility.

These days, the better question is this: How can we identify the late bloomers, find them in the portal, and get them to be Huskers?

[basketballjones]

On 5/9/2023 at 12:43 PM, Jacob Padilla said:

I think the path each of those guys took played a big part in the players they became.

 

Griesel's evolution as a player probably doesn't happen at a higher level where he got to play right away as a hustle guy 3/4, then mid-career moved into a point guard role, then after three years developed into a really effective player as a senior that earned him the opportunity to make the leap to a high-major conference.

 

Similarly, I think the freedom Scheierman had early in his career playing against Summit League defenses as a primary initiator allowed him to develop into the dynamic player he became by the end of his time there. I know Matt thinks Creighton messed up by not running everything through him as the point guard, but he's just not dynamic enough physically to consistently create with the ball in his hands in the Big East like he did at the Summit level, though he eventually found a beter balance as the season went on between his on- and off-ball play. There was definitely a big adjustment period for him though.

 

Like Griesel, Tonje and especially Allick were both late bloomers in high school (Griesel was good early then exploded at the end like Tonje, whereas Allick played mostly JV his junior year). Tonje was always a shooter and a bouncy straight-line athlete, but his offensive game really expanded as a senior. Lateral quickness and ball-handling against athleticism were concerns, though. At CSU, John didn't play much as a freshman and wasn't particularly good when he did get a larger role as a sophomore. He broke through a bit as a junior and was their second-best player this past season as a senior. But he has one season out of four as a double-digit scorer in the Mountain West. Does he stick around for four years to become that if Nebraska takes him out of high school? 

 

Wrightsell didn't look anything like a high-major player his first two years at CSF, but a breakout year has earned him this opportunity to test himself in the SEC.

 

It's also worth noting that Griesel and Scheierman are the only ones on that list we've actually seen play a season at the high-major level to this point.

 

I think the conversation is far more nuanced than seeing guys have success elsewhere and saying Nebraska should have recruited them out of high school.

Great write-up, Jacob. And you make very valid points about them being allowed to develop and flourish. 

[tcp]

people don't evolve on our timetables, which we normally understand in every other life context except athletics. 

 

you have to judge these moves based on how they look at the time. you can only hit paydirt on a crystal ball so much. It usually dovetails nicely with sheer luck. 

[Chuck Taylor]

It's pointless to say who we should or should not have offered. The bigger issue was that previous staffs did not put in the effort to recruit Nebraska kids. They'd offer a guy who was rated or was offered by other schools, but they didn't do the legwork locally. Whenever the coach would feel heat about missing on a local kid, then they'd offer somebody. That was about it.

 

I believe that has changed for the better under Fred, just in time since there are at least a couple promising Lincoln players. It's just too bad we largely missed out on the last decade, which might have been the best talent to come up through the ranks ever. 

[Jacob Padilla]

14 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

It's pointless to say who we should or should not have offered. The bigger issue was that previous staffs did not put in the effort to recruit Nebraska kids. They'd offer a guy who was rated or was offered by other schools, but they didn't do the legwork locally. Whenever the coach would feel heat about missing on a local kid, then they'd offer somebody. That was about it.

 

I believe that has changed for the better under Fred, just in time since there are at least a couple promising Lincoln players. It's just too bad we largely missed out on the last decade, which might have been the best talent to come up through the ranks ever. 

 

During my time covering the program, Michael Lewis and Nate Loenser have both been very invested in recruiting locally after being empowered and put in position to do so. I think the Miles staff was burned by the Deverell Biggs deal and it wasn't until Lewis stepped in and went hard after Hepburn, Sallis, etc. that that really changed. We know the Abdelmassih deal, but Loenser was showing up at in-state high school games and inviting kids to visit during the second half of the 2021-22 season once that situation changed.