KenPom 2015-2016 KenPom Rankings Thread

[49r]

Now that practice has started, I think it's close enough to the season to get the KenPom thread for this year going again (and also to beat Actuary to the punch on starting the KenPom thread, finally).

 

So, here are the final KenPom rankings for last year with our 2015-16 schedule.  I expect the new rankings to come out in a couple weeks but for now this should be a decent enough spot to start some discussion.

 

I can see Goodman's point, it does look kinda cupcake-y, but also there's quite a few games that will be much bigger challenges.  What do you think???

 

KenPom rankings as of 4-06-15.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

3. Wisconsin

15. Michigan State

19. Iowa

21. Ohio State

32. Maryland

48. Purdue

53. Indiana

58. Minnesota

69. Illinois

75. Michigan

82. Penn State

118. Northwestern

133. Nebraska

215. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (0-0):

347. Mississippi Valley State

 

---Gavitt Tipoff Games---

6. @Villanova

 

255. Delaware State

 

---Barclay's Center Classic---

312. Southeastern Louisiana

323. Arkansas Pine-Bluff

34. Cincinnati

74. George Washington, 89. Tennessee

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

46. Miami

 

335. Abilene Christian

85. @Creighton

56. Rhode Island

283. Samford

303. Prairie View A&M

Edited October 1, 2018 by 49r

[hhcmatt]

I can see Goodman's point, it does look kinda cupcake-y, but also there's quite a few games that will be much bigger challenges.  What do you think???

 

I think Miles put more thought into scheduling Ws than he did scheduling games to exploit the RPI this year. It's honestly tough to blame him much for that except for the crap teams that will be coming to the PBA.

[49r]

It looks like an 8-5 non con record to me.

[hhcmatt]

It looks like an 8-5 non con record to me.

 

That's rough considering the 6 pack of cupcake wins we bought this year.

[49r]

We're also a highly inexperienced team, and I tend to be fairly pessimistic in the preseason.

[Norm Peterson]

We're also a highly inexperienced team, and I tend to be fairly pessimistic in the preseason.

After we beat Villanova, you'll change your tune.

[hhcmatt]

 

We're also a highly inexperienced team, and I tend to be fairly pessimistic in the preseason.

After we beat Villanova, you'll change your tune.

 

 

[49r]

 

We're also a highly inexperienced team, and I tend to be fairly pessimistic in the preseason.

After we beat Villanova, you'll change your tune.

 

 

I just don't want this to be my tune after Villanova:

 

[jimmykc]

It seemed like Boots went on for longer than 2:11 to me. He made me miss the 3:10 to Yuma.

[49r]

The new KenPom rankings are out, and whoo boy does it look like we've got a mountain to climb!  It's no surprise, really, that we are starting off so low given where we ended last season and what we have returning (basically, Shavon).

 

Ignoring the conference slate for a minute, our non-con looks like it'll end up being a roller coaster ride of epic proportions.  6-6 in the non-con looks like a near certainty, and anything remotely near .500 in Big Ten play would appear to be somewhat of a miracle.

 

But, it is what it is and don't forget that we started 2013-14 off as the #130 team and that didn't end so badly.  One just never knows, hope springs eternal!

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 10-26-15.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

9. Wisconsin

13. Indiana

17. Michigan

18. Michigan State

22. Purdue

24. Maryland

36. Iowa

42. Ohio State

51. Northwestern

61. Illinois

66. Minnesota

119. Penn State

137. Nebraska

223. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (0-0):

349. Mississippi Valley State

 

---Gavitt Tipoff Games---

5. @Villanova

 

335. Delaware State

 

---Barclay's Center Classic---

315. Southeastern Louisiana

327. Arkansas Pine-Bluff

14. Cincinnati

58. George Washington, 78. Tennessee

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

21. Miami

 

347. Abilene Christian

86. @Creighton

50. Rhode Island

285. Samford

345. Prairie View A&M

[hhcmatt]

Seems right. Until we prove we can score this model seems about right.

[bball23]

Crazy how low Maryland is for KenPom, but in the preseason rankings they may be a top 2 team.

[49r]

Same thing for Cal.  They're #47 in KenPom but are ranked #14 in the Coaches Poll.

[AuroranHusker]

KenPom relies on prior results more than projections for the coming season, it seems.

[Norm Peterson]

KenPom relies on prior results more than projections for the coming season, it seems.

I can neither explain nor justify the approach KenPom uses to make their pre-season rankings.  But there's all kinds of statistics involved.  They figured out the offensive efficiency of the returning players and stuff like that.  They also take into account a team's last 5 years or so of what they've done because statistics show that teams that have had success tend to continue to have it, whereas teams that have been mired in failure tend to continue that as well.  I think they also factor in how much a team spends on its program because that seems to have some sort of correlation with success on the floor.

 

Lots of stuff, but there's a reason for it.

[Norm Peterson]

KenPom also factors in like uber top recruits because those guys -- like Jahlil Okafor at Duke -- tend to have an impact on a team's play for that coming season.  But they don't factor in basically other recruits because there's not so strong of a correlation between the darned good recruits you might have coming in and how successful your season is.

[Cousin Mose]

The rankings don't factor in transfers either so it can skew things a bit when you are counting on major contributions from a guy like Andrew White.

[AuroranHusker]

That's what I thought, KenPom skews the so-called "projections" which are not really projections in the sense that Ken doesn't anticipate anything changing to the script in his predictions, which seems odd since there were 750 transfers over the off-season. No wonder Miles has been known to crack on Pomeroy's "formula" on occasion.

[hhcmatt]

The rankings don't factor in transfers either so it can skew things a bit when you are counting on major contributions from a guy like Andrew White.

 

Yup

 

 

 

If you think your favorite team is ranked too low, the reason is probably that there are really good transfers or recruits arriving.

 

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/2016_preseason_ratings

[49r]

KenPom also factors in like uber top recruits because those guys -- like Jahlil Okafor at Duke -- tend to have an impact on a team's play for that coming season.  But they don't factor in basically other recruits because there's not so strong of a correlation between the darned good recruits you might have coming in and how successful your season is.

 

 

The rankings don't factor in transfers either so it can skew things a bit when you are counting on major contributions from a guy like Andrew White.

 

 

That's what I thought, KenPom skews the so-called "projections" which are not really projections in the sense that Ken doesn't anticipate anything changing to the script in his predictions, which seems odd since there were 750 transfers over the off-season. No wonder Miles has been known to crack on Pomeroy's "formula" on occasion.

 

Good points, guys.

 

But I really think we must face up to the glaring fact that we are severely deficient in the post and that's going to really hurt us.  I think perhaps #137 might even be a little generous at least to start.

 

Of course, that's just my opinion...

[Norm Peterson]

I hear what you're saying, 49r, about the post, but we were even more limited there last year and finished with a higher kenpom ranking than where we are starting out this year. We gonna surprise some folks.

[Chuck Taylor]

One final word on KenPom preseason: His system seems odd, with the overreliance on past seasons and seemingly not enough evaluation of the roster. But he tests his stuff repeatedly and this was the best system for predicting the season's results. So it may seem like it doesn't make sense but it worked better statistically than any other system he tried.

[49r]

Mmmm, cupcake!

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-15-15.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

11. Indiana

15. Michigan State

17. Michigan

21. Purdue

22. Maryland

23. Wisconsin

33. Iowa

39. Ohio State

57. Minnesota

64. Northwestern

78. Illinois

116. Penn State

131. Nebraska

218. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (1-0):

349. Mississippi Valley State

 

---Gavitt Tipoff Games---

5. @Villanova

 

336. Delaware State

 

---Barclay's Center Classic---

314. Southeastern Louisiana

329. Arkansas Pine-Bluff

12. Cincinnati

61. George Washington, 84. Tennessee

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

25. Miami

 

344. Abilene Christian

74. @Creighton

42. Rhode Island

292. Samford

348. Prairie View A&M

[AuroranHusker]

Nebraska's non-conf schedule is all or nothing: top 60 RPI or bottom 60 RPI. Nothing really in between.

[49r]

Time to fatten up on 3 more cupcakes before heading off to Brooklyn.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-18-15.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

11. Michigan State

13. Indiana

15. Purdue

17. Michigan

24. Wisconsin

26. Maryland

34. Iowa

38. Ohio State

55. Minnesota

63. Northwestern

72. Illinois

115. Penn State

138. Nebraska

205. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (1-1):

349. Mississippi Valley State - W

 

---Gavitt Tipoff Games---

3. @Villanova - L

 

337. Delaware State

 

---Barclay's Center Classic---

317. Southeastern Louisiana

326. Arkansas Pine-Bluff

12. Cincinnati

53. George Washington, 79. Tennessee

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

23. Miami

 

346. Abilene Christian

74. @Creighton

48. Rhode Island

292. Samford

348. Prairie View A&M