KenPom 2012-2013 KenPom Rankings Thread

[HB]

How is Purdue at 69?

You'd have to ask their girlfriends.......

Cip, that might just be the best post in Board history......inappropriate as it is.

[49r]

Last one of the non-con, and of 2012. Happy New Year everybody!

Kenpom rankings as of 12-30-12.

==============================

B1G (0-0):

1. Indiana

7. Ohio State

9. Michigan

10. Minnesota

16. Wisconsin

18. Michigan State

43. Illinois

45. Iowa

72. Purdue

86. Northwestern

163. Penn State

198. Nebraska

Non-Conference (9-4):

217. Southern - W

90. Valpariaso - W

341. UNO - W

111. Tulane - W

137. Kent State - L

179. @Wake Forest - W

127. Southern Cal - W

15. Creighton - L

35. @Oregon - L

204. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--

242. Central Michigan - W

139. UTEP - L

310. Nicholls State - W

[tcp]

woo hoo! cracked the 200 mark in Pom! thanks to whichever of our opponents who were winning!

[49r]

Here we go.  We moved up despite losing by 26.  Also, Tulane is now our best win, not Valpo, and Southern Cal is creeping further toward double digits.  Iowa and Illinois have swapped spots in the B1G and I still can't explain Wisco.  Finally, I'd like to point out that Jacksonville State is ahead of us now in the rankings. 

Kenpom rankings as of 1-3-13.
==============================

B1G (0-1):
1. Indiana
7. Ohio State - L
11. Michigan
12. Minnesota
17. Wisconsin
19. Michigan State
40. Iowa
46. Illinois
73. Purdue
86. Northwestern
166. Penn State
196. Nebraska

Non-Conference (9-4):
210. Southern - W
102. Valpariaso - W
339. UNO - W
97. Tulane - W
116. Kent State - L
169. @Wake Forest - W
123. Southern Cal - W
15. Creighton - L
29. @Oregon - L
194. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
236. Central Michigan - W
125. UTEP - L

309. Nicholls State - W

[hskr4life]

Wow... Wisconsin is that high!  A win this Sunday would do a ton in terms of these wouldn't they?

[49r]

We're up to 193 today!

[Huskerpapa]

 

How is Purdue at 69?

You'd have to ask their girlfriends.......

 

Cip, that might just be the best post in Board history......inappropriate as it is.

 

Kind of reminds me of this story...  http://www.thesmokinggun.com/buster/battery-over-bad-sex-497812

[49r]

Another loss, another positive jump in the Pomeroy rankings.  The rankings in the B1G have Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Illinois, Penn State and Nebraska up, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue and Northwestern down.  Indiana stays the same, at #1.  Kent State continues to be less of a dissapointing loss while Tulane, Valpo, and even Southern are semi-quality wins.

Kenpom rankings as of 1-7-13.
==============================

B1G (0-2):
1. Indiana
7. Michigan
8. Minnesota
11. Ohio State - L
16. Michigan State
18. Wisconsin - L
34. Illinois
51. Iowa
85. Purdue
100. Northwestern
162. Penn State
189. Nebraska

Non-Conference (9-4):
178. Southern - W
94. Valpariaso - W
337. UNO - W
91. Tulane - W
113. Kent State - L
156. @Wake Forest - W
120. Southern Cal - W
15. Creighton - L
26. @Oregon - L
215. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
236. Central Michigan - W
125. UTEP - L

309. Nicholls State - W

[49r]

Moral victories do count for something in the Pomeroy rankings.  We move up 11 spots and inch one step closer to moving out of last in the B1G.

 

It's a baby step, but at least it's one in the right direction.  Thus ends today's affirmation.

Kenpom rankings as of 1-10-13.
==============================

B1G (0-3):
3. Indiana
7. Michigan - L
9. Minnesota
11. Ohio State - L
16. Michigan State
17. Wisconsin - L
39. Illinois
50. Iowa
88. Purdue
98. Northwestern
173. Penn State
178. Nebraska

Non-Conference (9-4):
171. Southern - W
90. Valpariaso - W
334. UNO - W
102. Tulane - W
133. Kent State - L
141. @Wake Forest - W
124. Southern Cal - W
15. Creighton - L
26. @Oregon - L
219. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
207. Central Michigan - W
110. UTEP - L

307. Nicholls State - W

[tcp]

woo hoo! we might lose our way to the post season! okay, maybe not.

[hskr4life]

Oregon just gave Arizona their first loss... Looks like that may help us a bit SOS wise.

[49r]

We're ahead of Penn State now.

[49r]

It's been a while, so here is a special pregame edition (aka, hey look we aren't in last any more) of the KenPom update.  Items of note.  Southern, Valpo, Southern Cal and even Jacksonville State are really helping us out right now.  Valpo is even starting to look like a really strong win for us.  

 

Man, it's hard finding the silver lining in all the clouds this season, so for now just keep repeating "Southern, Valpo, Southern Cal and Jacksonville...Southern, Valpo, Southern Cal and Jacksonville".  See if that helps.

Kenpom rankings as of 1-13-13.
==============================

B1G (0-3):
3. Indiana
5. Michigan - L
6. Minnesota
10. Ohio State - L
15. Wisconsin - L
16. Michigan State
47. Iowa
52. Illinois
93. Northwestern
98. Purdue
168. Nebraska
195. Penn State

Non-Conference (9-4):
134. Southern - W
75. Valpariaso - W
334. UNO - W
104. Tulane - W
118. Kent State - L
138. @Wake Forest - W
101. Southern Cal - W
12. Creighton - L
23. @Oregon - L
201. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
202. Central Michigan - W
108. UTEP - L

314. Nicholls State - W

[49r]

Iowa is surging, Penn State is falling off the face of the earth and Nebraska is creeping up on Northwestern.

Kenpom rankings as of 1-14-13.
==============================

B1G (0-4):
3. Indiana
5. Michigan - L
6. Minnesota
10. Ohio State - L
15. Wisconsin - L
17. Michigan State - L
36. Iowa
49. Illinois
83. Purdue
103. Northwestern
162. Nebraska
205. Penn State

Non-Conference (9-4):
133. Southern - W
75. Valpariaso - W
334. UNO - W
104. Tulane - W
118. Kent State - L
139. @Wake Forest - W
99. Southern Cal - W
12. Creighton - L
24. @Oregon - L
201. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
202. Central Michigan - W
108. UTEP - L

312. Nicholls State - W

[49r]

ugh.

Kenpom rankings as of 1-17-13.
==============================

B1G (0-5):
4. Indiana
5. Michigan - L
7. Minnesota
10. Ohio State - L
12. Wisconsin - L
18. Michigan State - L
38. Iowa
48. Illinois
78. Purdue - L
103. Northwestern
168. Nebraska
201. Penn State

Non-Conference (9-4):
114. Southern - W
77. Valpariaso - W
332. UNO - W
102. Tulane - W
108. Kent State - L
154. @Wake Forest - W
98. Southern Cal - W
13. Creighton - L
24. @Oregon - L
198. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
209. Central Michigan - W
100. UTEP - L

311. Nicholls State - W

[Norm Peterson]

Apparently, we've now reached a point where we have to start winning again in order to move up in the RPI.  Not good enough to lose to better teams to improve our RPI.  Have to win a couple.

[49r]

Yeah, we need to get a win somewhere...like State College, PA.

[49r]

Well, there aren't many ills that can't be cured by a win, we've reached our high point in terms of KenPom ranking so far this season, I believe.  Also of note, Nicholls State moves into the 200's meaning we have only one +300 team now on our schedule, UNO, and only 3 +200 teams, one of which is in conference.

Kenpom rankings as of 1-20-13.
==============================

B1G (1-5):
4. Indiana
5. Michigan - L
7. Minnesota
10. Ohio State - L
15. Wisconsin - L
19. Michigan State - L
29. Iowa
61. Illinois
67. Purdue - L
93. Northwestern
154. Nebraska
210. Penn State - W

Non-Conference (9-4):
118. Southern - W
77. Valpariaso - W
330. UNO - W
109. Tulane - W
112. Kent State - L
138. @Wake Forest - W
95. Southern Cal - W
13. Creighton - L
23. @Oregon - L
205. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
187. Central Michigan - W
99. UTEP - L

287. Nicholls State - W

 

[49r]

Well, it is what it is.

Kenpom rankings as of 1-23-13.
==============================

B1G (1-6):
3. Indiana
5. Michigan - L
7. Minnesota
11. Ohio State - L
15. Wisconsin - L
16. Michigan State - L
28. Iowa
55. Illinois - L
68. Purdue - L
89. Northwestern
165. Nebraska
210. Penn State - W

Non-Conference (9-4):
120. Southern - W
79. Valpariaso - W
330. UNO - W
110. Tulane - W
115. Kent State - L
134. @Wake Forest - W
95. Southern Cal - W
14. Creighton - L
23. @Oregon - L
208. Jacksonville State - W

---Sun Bowl Invitational--
188. Central Michigan - W
97. UTEP - L

288. Nicholls State - W

 

[Norm Peterson]

Thanks for keeping these updates going, 49r.

 

We've only lost to teams in or near the top 100.  That's somewhat encouraging.  In addition, we've beaten 2 teams in the top 100.  If the worst team you've lost to is 115th, and the best team you've beaten is 79th, I struggle to understand how the computer so far below the worst team you've lost to.  I would think you shouldn't be too far below the average of the worst team you've lost to and the best team you've beaten.  Instead, we seem to be somewhere around the average of the worst team we've beaten and the best team we've lost to.  And that doesn't make sense to me.

[tcp]

Thanks for keeping these updates going, 49r.

 

We've only lost to teams in or near the top 100.  That's somewhat encouraging.  In addition, we've beaten 2 teams in the top 100.  If the worst team you've lost to is 115th, and the best team you've beaten is 79th, I struggle to understand how the computer so far below the worst team you've lost to.  I would think you shouldn't be too far below the average of the worst team you've lost to and the best team you've beaten.  Instead, we seem to be somewhere around the average of the worst team we've beaten and the best team we've lost to.  And that doesn't make sense to me.

 

I'm pretty sure part of the reason for the KenPom placement is margins of loss. We tend to lose pretty big to higher teams when we lose. That also explains why our SoS is keeping us higher in rpi formulas that don't do margin of victory/loss, like CBS or RealTime, where we are rated much higher. 

 

AS much as it pains me to say, Poms ratings probably have us closest to where we really are as a squad. It passes the eyeball test, at least for me. I saw CBS a week or so ago and they had us around 68th or something. I don't know anyone that could make a sober case for how we could be the 68th best team in the country right now.

 

Edit: Sagarin's elaborate formula with Predictor has us at 160. Also a reasonable placement. And he's got us with an SoS of 10, which is probably the difference between Pom and him.

[Norm Peterson]

I suppose you're right.  Still, how can you be ranked so much lower than the worst team to beat you? 

[tcp]

I suppose you're right.  Still, how can you be ranked so much lower than the worst team to beat you? 

 

That's usually a function of what other teams are doing as well. A 148 team might struggle with Nicholls St at home, too, but they lose by less to the better teams or they've upset someone and gained the  point surplus for the effort. And teams have to be ranked in an order, not here you necessarily think they should be. For example, we might really be the 120th best team in the country! Along with maybe 30 other teams with similar resumes. But then that clump gets sorted out by measures large and small, and we find ourselves in 160 instead.

 

I get what you're saying. We've lost to the people we should lose to, beat a couple we should've lost to (a few mild upsets), and generally held our own against peers for the most part. A lot of teams are doing that. And so we separate us via other means (margin of victory/loss, for example).

 

Our biggest enemy on rpi is our margins, though. I can tell that just by eyeballing scores. Almost all of our 10 losses are by double figures. the other two are by 6 and 9 points at home. Computer makes sad face at numbers such as these.

[Norm Peterson]

Anyone know how much margin of victory/loss works its way into the rpi rankings?

[Badgett Fan]

Anyone know how much margin of victory/loss works its way into the rpi rankings?

It doesn't. 

 

So far as I can tell, Nebraska has a couple of major things working against it with respect to its kenpom ranking. 

 

First, 94.3 points per 100 possessions puts the Huskers at 255th in the nation.  By comparison, the current number 1 team in that category, Michigan, scores 125 points per 100 possessions.  And although Nebraska's per possession defense is much better than its per possession offense right now, it's only rated at #87. 

 

Second, Nebraska is #16 in the luck category.

 

I agree with tcp on the relative accuracy of the kenpom ranking in terms of where the team realistically stands this year, even if it is clear that Nebraska's plenty capable of beating a number of the teams ranked ahead of them, and apparently capable of soundly beating a team on the road that is capable of beating ranked N.C. State.