Jumping the Gun

[aghusker]

Great discussion, really enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts on who may start and how much better we could be from a talent perspective. My additions to what hasn't been stated:

1) Gallegos was inconsistent in his shooting, but it's easy to forget the level of defending and coaching in the big ten, ray was asked to carry the shooting load, Coach Miles admitted to this multiple times and every good coach had a plan to take ray out of the game, when you only have to scout for 7 players at the most, trust me there was plenty of practice time devoted to stop ray, do we remember how many screens he had to run around just to get a semi-contested shot off, and how he had to defend one of the others teams better players for a season team record length of time, now why this is not the entire answer to ray's shooting consistency, it needs to be added to the equation, therefore as an experienced player, solid defender, and a known scoring quantity (while sometimes inconsistent), he easily starts for Coach Miles next year!

2) For those of who you have Smith starting next year, I love the optimism, he very well may improve with another year removed from his injury, and with this staff adding further development. But having personally see him play multiple times, I just don't see how a player who while in the KJCAA averaged only twenty minutes per game, was gassed after three minutes of play and was very inconsistent within and between games starts next year. I do think he will be a big spark off the bench though and can contribute, but won't have a majority of minutes next year.

3) Let's not forget this will be the first true offseason this staff has had with our program to develop our current roster, Coach Miles spent most of the spring and summer just evaluating the current roster, hiring the rest of his staff, moving his family, making new recruiting connections, and scouting the upcoming season opponents for the first time. I was amazed how much we improved from November to March. I can only imagine what this staff can accomplish in a full offseason

Look forward to hearing more of your thoughts!

[GATA]

Great discussion, really enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts on who may start and how much better we could be from a talent perspective. My additions to what hasn't been stated:

1) Gallegos was inconsistent in his shooting, but it's easy to forget the level of defending and coaching in the big ten, ray was asked to carry the shooting load, Coach Miles admitted to this multiple times and every good coach had a plan to take ray out of the game, when you only have to scout for 7 players at the most, trust me there was plenty of practice time devoted to stop ray, do we remember how many screens he had to run around just to get a semi-contested shot off, and how he had to defend one of the others teams better players for a season team record length of time, now why this is not the entire answer to ray's shooting consistency, it needs to be added to the equation, therefore as an experienced player, solid defender, and a known scoring quantity (while sometimes inconsistent), he easily starts for Coach Miles next year!

2) For those of who you have Smith starting next year, I love the optimism, he very well may improve with another year removed from his injury, and with this staff adding further development. But having personally see him play multiple times, I just don't see how a player who while in the KJCAA averaged only twenty minutes per game, was gassed after three minutes of play and was very inconsistent within and between games starts next year. I do think he will be a big spark off the bench though and can contribute, but won't have a majority of minutes next year.

3) Let's not forget this will be the first true offseason this staff has had with our program to develop our current roster, Coach Miles spent most of the spring and summer just evaluating the current roster, hiring the rest of his staff, moving his family, making new recruiting connections, and scouting the upcoming season opponents for the first time. I was amazed how much we improved from November to March. I can only imagine what this staff can accomplish in a full offseason

Look forward to hearing more of your thoughts!

 

Good point on Leslee Smith. I'm one of the people who put him in my lineup, and I did so because we don't have a true post player beyond him on our roster. As I said, I see Pitchford as almost a big small forward that probably isn't a true big man. He'll definitely need help on the boards, although having guys like Petteway and Shields can help pitch in.

[Norm Peterson]

Man, I hope to heck Smith isn't like Andre the Second.  If he's gassed after a few minutes and only good for 20 or so minutes/game, then that's kinda the way it looks.  Hopefully that's still recovery mode following injury and not a function of being fat, lazy, and unwilling to do much to change.  (Not saying that's the case with Andre but I also don't know that it isn't.)  We need the kid to be able to run up and down the floor and use his muscle to hold the post on the defensive end of the floor.  We need this to be a kid who can go hard at it for 25 minutes, anyway.  You sayin' he doesn't have much of a motor?  Not good news if true.

[hhcmatt]

Gallegos: Volume shooter. Inconsistent shooter. Can't create his own shot.

 

He spent the entire season creating his own shot.

He might not do it by driving, but he could get his shot off again almost anyone this year.

His GATA is going to be better this year without having to play every minute.

 

It would be shocking to see him playing less than 20 minutes per game.

[Nebrasketballer]

Gallegos: Volume shooter. Inconsistent shooter. Can't create his own shot.

 

He spent the entire season creating his own shot.

He might not do it by driving, but he could get his shot off again almost anyone this year.

His GATA is going to be better this year without having to play every minute.

 

It would be shocking to see him playing less than 20 minutes per game.

I wouldn't really disagree with that.  I was thinking 15-20 mins, but yeah.  By "creating his own shot" I meant off of the dribble, with the ball in his hands, without having to run off of screens to get open. 

[aghusker]

He has a great motor, just dosen't last very long, which is why I think he could provide a tremounds spark off the bench, but don't see him playing a lot of minutes.

However, like everyone I'm hopefull as well that one more year off the injury, Coach Miles's GATA style, and our strength and conditioning support/staff (which is 100 times better than Seward CC) that his stamina improves.

But until I see that I fear you'll see a guy enter the game make two eye opening plays, and then get lost in the game until taken out, like I saw everytime I saw him play.

Man, I hope to heck Smith isn't like Andre the Second. If he's gassed after a few minutes and only good for 20 or so minutes/game, then that's kinda the way it looks. Hopefully that's still recovery mode following injury and not a function of being fat, lazy, and unwilling to do much to change. (Not saying that's the case with Andre but I also don't know that it isn't.) We need the kid to be able to run up and down the floor and use his muscle to hold the post on the defensive end of the floor. We need this to be a kid who can go hard at it for 25 minutes, anyway. You sayin' he doesn't have much of a motor? Not good news if true.

[GATA]

He has a great motor, just dosen't last very long, which is why I think he could provide a tremounds spark off the bench, but don't see him playing a lot of minutes.

However, like everyone I'm hopefull as well that one more year off the injury, Coach Miles's GATA style, and our strength and conditioning support/staff (which is 100 times better than Seward CC) that his stamina improves.

But until I see that I fear you'll see a guy enter the game make two eye opening plays, and then get lost in the game until taken out, like I saw everytime I saw him play.

 

I think that's the definition of lack of motor.

[aghusker]

He has a great motor, just dosen't last very long, which is why I think he could provide a tremounds spark off the bench, but don't see him playing a lot of minutes.

However, like everyone I'm hopefull as well that one more year off the injury, Coach Miles's GATA style, and our strength and conditioning support/staff (which is 100 times better than Seward CC) that his stamina improves.

But until I see that I fear you'll see a guy enter the game make two eye opening plays, and then get lost in the game until taken out, like I saw everytime I saw him play.

I think that's the definition of lack of motor.

I see exactly where you're coming from, I was trying to get across that the motor is there just needs to come with a bigger tank (hopefully this will be developed in the offseason)

[hhcscott]

Bench player?:

"2012-2013 PLAYER OF THE GAME RESULTS:

RAY GALLEGOS - 11

DYLAN TALLEY - 10

BRANDON UBEL - 7

SHAVON SHIELDS - 4

DAVID RIVERS - 3

ANDRE ALMEIDA - 1

JORDAN TYRANCE - 1"

This means very little.

It's a shame you feel that way.

[Nebrasketballer]

Bench player?:

 

"2012-2013 PLAYER OF THE GAME RESULTS:

RAY GALLEGOS - 11

DYLAN TALLEY - 10

BRANDON UBEL - 7

SHAVON SHIELDS - 4

DAVID RIVERS - 3

ANDRE ALMEIDA - 1

JORDAN TYRANCE - 1"

This means very little.

+1

It only takes into consideration the 11 games.  It doesn't illustrate the many games that he couldn't buy a bucket.  Wildly inconsistent.

[hhcscott]

Bench player?:

"2012-2013 PLAYER OF THE GAME RESULTS:

RAY GALLEGOS - 11

DYLAN TALLEY - 10

BRANDON UBEL - 7

SHAVON SHIELDS - 4

DAVID RIVERS - 3

ANDRE ALMEIDA - 1

JORDAN TYRANCE - 1"

This means very little.

+1

It only takes into consideration the 11 games. It doesn't illustrate the many games that he couldn't buy a bucket. Wildly inconsistent.

But that's the point. Everyone in that list was inconsistent. Talley's numbers weren't All-B1G either, Ubel had great nights and nights he was overmatched. Everyone, me included, likes this Shields kids, but he and Rivers were hit or miss all season. Gallegos had more nights where he was the top contributor. If everyone returning steps up their game and any of the newcomers are as advertised, Gallegos may have more time and space to work with. On 11 nights last season, he was the best Husker on the floor. I think he has best chance to build on that success with more talent drawing defensive attention.

[Nebrasketballer]

 

 

Bench player?:

"2012-2013 PLAYER OF THE GAME RESULTS:

RAY GALLEGOS - 11

DYLAN TALLEY - 10

BRANDON UBEL - 7

SHAVON SHIELDS - 4

DAVID RIVERS - 3

ANDRE ALMEIDA - 1

JORDAN TYRANCE - 1"

This means very little.

+1

It only takes into consideration the 11 games. It doesn't illustrate the many games that he couldn't buy a bucket. Wildly inconsistent.

But that's the point. Everyone in that list was inconsistent. Talley's numbers weren't All-B1G either, Ubel had great nights and nights he was overmatched. Everyone, me included, likes this Shields kids, but he and Rivers were hit or miss all season. Gallegos had more nights where he was the top contributor. If everyone returning steps up their game and any of the newcomers are as advertised, Gallegos may have more time and space to work with. On 11 nights last season, he was the best Husker on the floor. I think he has best chance to build on that success with more talent drawing defensive attention.

Yeah I see where you're coming from, but I've also said that Petteway wasn't eligible last season, but he will be eligible next season. 

 

The point that I've tried to make isn't that Gallegos is a terrible player.  There were games where Gallegos was flat out unconscious shooting the ball and couldn't miss even if he tried.  But on the flipside, he also had enough games where he couldn't make a shot, that it brought his 3-PT% in conference games down to below .300.  Wildly Inconsistent. 

 

I think that you want more consistency from your starters.  You can stomach the inconsistent play a little more from a bench player.  If a bench player comes in, you would like to just not lose any ground, while your starters are resting.  But if they can come in every now and then and go off (like Spike Albrecht did vs Louisville), then that gives you an extra boost so the starters can continue to build on that unexpected lead.  And on the nights that Gallegos is stroking it, then maybe you keep him in a little longer than normal, in order to ride the hot hand.

[GATA]

 

 

 

Bench player?:

"2012-2013 PLAYER OF THE GAME RESULTS:

RAY GALLEGOS - 11

DYLAN TALLEY - 10

BRANDON UBEL - 7

SHAVON SHIELDS - 4

DAVID RIVERS - 3

ANDRE ALMEIDA - 1

JORDAN TYRANCE - 1"

This means very little.

+1

It only takes into consideration the 11 games. It doesn't illustrate the many games that he couldn't buy a bucket. Wildly inconsistent.

But that's the point. Everyone in that list was inconsistent. Talley's numbers weren't All-B1G either, Ubel had great nights and nights he was overmatched. Everyone, me included, likes this Shields kids, but he and Rivers were hit or miss all season. Gallegos had more nights where he was the top contributor. If everyone returning steps up their game and any of the newcomers are as advertised, Gallegos may have more time and space to work with. On 11 nights last season, he was the best Husker on the floor. I think he has best chance to build on that success with more talent drawing defensive attention.

Yeah I see where you're coming from, but I've also said that Petteway wasn't eligible last season, but he will be eligible next season. 

 

The point that I've tried to make isn't that Gallegos is a terrible player.  There were games where Gallegos was flat out unconscious shooting the ball and couldn't miss even if he tried.  But on the flipside, he also had enough games where he couldn't make a shot, that it brought his 3-PT% in conference games down to below .300.  Wildly Inconsistent. 

 

I think that you want more consistency from your starters.  You can stomach the inconsistent play a little more from a bench player.  If a bench player comes in, you would like to just not lose any ground, while your starters are resting.  But if they can come in every now and then and go off (like Spike Albrecht did vs Louisville), then that gives you an extra boost so the starters can continue to build on that unexpected lead.  And on the nights that Gallegos is stroking it, then maybe you keep him in a little longer than normal, in order to ride the hot hand.

 

That's EXACTLY how I see it. There's no shame in being the No. 1 scoring option for the second unit. 

[Norm Peterson]

OK, he was player of the game only 11 times on the season and, as Nebrasketballer points out, that only takes into consideration those 11 games.

 

Ray scored in double figures in 21 games.  He scored 8 or 9 points in 4 additional games.  So, he scored 8 or more points in 25 total contests and 7 or fewer points in only 8 games.  He had 46 steals (including 31 in conference games) yet only fouled out once the whole season.  And, in 20 conference games (including the B1G Tournament) only had 20 turnovers.  Which is about 1 turnover for every 39 minutes of playing time.  Add his assists and steals together compared to his turnovers and he's way ahead.

 

He lead the team in steals and had 50% more steals than the next closest player and twice as many as the guy in third place for steals.  He had fewer turnovers than any regular starter other than David Rivers (less than half the turnovers that Dylan Talley had) and had more rebounds than Andre Almeida.

 

So, yes, I agree.  The eleven "player of the game awards" doesn't tell the whole story.

[Badgett Fan]

Sort of in keeping with the quality statements already made by hhcscott and other posters, what players do the "Gallegos should not start" camp view as proven, consistent forces, and upon what high major D-1 evidence are those opinions based?

[GATA]

OK, he was player of the game only 11 times on the season and, as Nebrasketballer points out, that only takes into consideration those 11 games.

 

Ray scored in double figures in 21 games.  He scored 8 or 9 points in 4 additional games.  So, he scored 8 or more points in 25 total contests and 7 or fewer points in only 8 games.  He had 46 steals (including 31 in conference games) yet only fouled out once the whole season.  And, in 20 conference games (including the B1G Tournament) only had 20 turnovers.  Which is about 1 turnover for every 39 minutes of playing time.  Add his assists and steals together compared to his turnovers and he's way ahead.

 

He lead the team in steals and had 50% more steals than the next closest player and twice as many as the guy in third place for steals.  He had fewer turnovers than any regular starter other than David Rivers (less than half the turnovers that Dylan Talley had) and had more rebounds than Andre Almeida.

 

So, yes, I agree.  The eleven "player of the game awards" doesn't tell the whole story.

 

Yeah, but don't those lack of turnovers stem from his inability to put the ball on the deck and actually drive to the basket? Plus, it's not like he's out there racking up assists.

[Silverbacked1]

Well from what I could tell from watching games this year his job was to shoot and shoot a lot.

 

So I think that would cut down on both  turnovers and assists because he was shooting more than passing.

 

I think he didn't drive because he couldn't.  Either because of lack of skill to do so or by design. JMHO

[GATA]

Sort of in keeping with the quality statements already made by hhcscott and other posters, what players do the "Gallegos should not start" camp view as proven, consistent forces, and upon what high major D-1 evidence are those opinions based?

 

Obviously none of the players we're talking about starting over Gallegos are "proven, consistent forces." We're simply projecting them to be. At this point, Gallegos is a one-dimensional offensive player, and I prefer to have multi-dimensional players out there. Gallegos certainly could improve in those areas and become a better all-around threat. Or he could just be a more efficient player, which would go a long way into his improvement. 

 

Plus, I'm reading the tea leaves a little bit when Miles said Petteway could play point guard next year. I see him in the Talley role since we don't have a true point guard with starting talent on the roster. That would take some of the pressure off Webster, who I really hope is in the starting lineup. Shields then slots in well at the 3, Leslee Smith at the 4 or 5 to add a little more rebounding and size as a complement to Pitchford.

[Norm Peterson]

Gallegos had 40 assists, 46 steals and only 30 turnovers.

 

Talley, for comparison's sake, had 81 assists, 30 steals and 71 turnovers.

 

I'm sure KenPom can turn those stats into points for comparison, but Gallegos' 46 steals took a bunch of potential points away from our opponents and gave us chances to score.  The turnovers deprive us of points and give our opponents the opportunity to score.  So, Talley is responsible for -41 possessions on the season and Gallegous is responsible for +16 possessions.

 

If each team scores on half of its possessions, then Talley cost us 82 points with his steal-turnover numbers and Gallegos gave us 32 extra points with his.  That changes the outcome of a few games on the season.

[GATA]

Gallegos had 40 assists, 46 steals and only 30 turnovers.

 

Talley, for comparison's sake, had 81 assists, 30 steals and 71 turnovers.

 

I'm sure KenPom can turn those stats into points for comparison, but Gallegos' 46 steals took a bunch of potential points away from our opponents and gave us chances to score.  The turnovers deprive us of points and give our opponents the opportunity to score.  So, Talley is responsible for -41 possessions on the season and Gallegous is responsible for +16 possessions.

 

If each team scores on half of its possessions, then Talley cost us 82 points with his steal-turnover numbers and Gallegos gave us 32 extra points with his.  That changes the outcome of a few games on the season.

 

What about the lost possessions due to missed 3-pointers? It's nice to point out all the points he scored as you did earlier in the thread, but if you shoot enough, you should score. It's pretty simple. But let's be honest, if Talley were returning this season, he would see a big decrease in minutes, ball-handling duties and scoring. This isn't just a Gallegos issue. Ubel, now he'd still be locked into a huge role. I really wish we had him for another season.

 

But I really don't want to turn this into a thread bashing Gallegos, because he's a valuable player. But it's completely in the eye of the beholder. Some people say he missed shots because he played a lot of minutes and was one of only a few threats. There's a lot of merit to that.

 

But I see a very limited player who has one real skill -- shooting. Maybe he can be more efficient and raise those percentages to around 40 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3. A guy like Gallegos, in my humble opinion, could thrive in a bench role where he comes in as the designated gunner where we run him around a bunch of screens and hopefully he hits a 3 or two while our starters catch a breather. If he's having one of his on-fire days, then we ride him.

 

I really like having an explosive shooter off the bench to help carry the second unit. I truly don't look at this like it's a demotion. I just think he fits better in that role.

[mrjam]

Norm

 

Gallegos had 40 assists, 46 steals and only 30 turnovers.

 

Talley, for comparison's sake, had 81 assists, 30 steals and 71 turnovers.

 

I'm sure KenPom can turn those stats into points for comparison, but Gallegos' 46 steals took a bunch of potential points away from our opponents and gave us chances to score.  The turnovers deprive us of points and give our opponents the opportunity to score.  So, Talley is responsible for -41 possessions on the season and Gallegous is responsible for +16 possessions.

 

If each team scores on half of its possessions, then Talley cost us 82 points with his steal-turnover numbers and Gallegos gave us 32 extra points with his.  That changes the outcome of a few games on the season.

 

Norm,Gallegos' handled the ball a lot less then Talley,who played the point forward position. So the opportunity for more turnovers should be expected to a point. Gallegos' also never drove or handled the rock in traffic.

Gallegos had 40 assists, 46 steals and only 30 turnovers.

 

Talley, for comparison's sake, had 81 assists, 30 steals and 71 turnovers.

 

I'm sure KenPom can turn those stats into points for comparison, but Gallegos' 46 steals took a bunch of potential points away from our opponents and gave us chances to score.  The turnovers deprive us of points and give our opponents the opportunity to score.  So, Talley is responsible for -41 possessions on the season and Gallegous is responsible for +16 possessions.

 

If each team scores on half of its possessions, then Talley cost us 82 points with his steal-turnover numbers and Gallegos gave us 32 extra points with his.  That changes the outcome of a few games on the season.

[nebrasketball10]

OK, he was player of the game only 11 times on the season and, as Nebrasketballer points out, that only takes into consideration those 11 games.

 

Ray scored in double figures in 21 games.  He scored 8 or 9 points in 4 additional games.  So, he scored 8 or more points in 25 total contests and 7 or fewer points in only 8 games.  He had 46 steals (including 31 in conference games) yet only fouled out once the whole season.  And, in 20 conference games (including the B1G Tournament) only had 20 turnovers.  Which is about 1 turnover for every 39 minutes of playing time.  Add his assists and steals together compared to his turnovers and he's way ahead.

 

He lead the team in steals and had 50% more steals than the next closest player and twice as many as the guy in third place for steals.  He had fewer turnovers than any regular starter other than David Rivers (less than half the turnovers that Dylan Talley had) and had more rebounds than Andre Almeida.

 

So, yes, I agree.  The eleven "player of the game awards" doesn't tell the whole story.

 

I'm not in the "Ray won't start camp." I think Ray will undoubtedly start to open the season. I am in the "Ray won't start if we're going to be very good/if these "new" players are as good as we hope camp." On a good team, Ray is a role player. He averaged just over a steal per game, and I would grade him as an average to slightly above average defender. I would grade him as a better shooter than the numbers suggest (I think most would) but he is a spot-up shooter. He cannot create off the dribble, and his accuracy drops significantly running off screens (as is the case for most spot-up shooters).

 

His turnovers are low because he's not asked to handle the ball and doesn't pass very much. There were numerous occasions we had a 2 on 1 break and Ray took and missed a bad shot when he should have passed - not necessarily because he's selfish, but because he's a subpar ball handler/passer.

 

I would be pleasantly surprised if Ray is not starting in conference play. To me, it hinges on how good Petteway and Webster are. I think Biggs starts at point to start the year. Pitchford and Shields are likely starters. I would consider those 4 I(including Ray) locks for the start of the season (unless Biggs is suspended. Also - haven't seen much of Smit - going off of what I've heard). If Petteway and Webster are as good as we hope, they should supplant Ray by conference play.

[Nebrasketballer]

OK, he was player of the game only 11 times on the season and, as Nebrasketballer points out, that only takes into consideration those 11 games.

 

Ray scored in double figures in 21 games.  He scored 8 or 9 points in 4 additional games.  So, he scored 8 or more points in 25 total contests and 7 or fewer points in only 8 games.  He had 46 steals (including 31 in conference games) yet only fouled out once the whole season.  And, in 20 conference games (including the B1G Tournament) only had 20 turnovers.  Which is about 1 turnover for every 39 minutes of playing time.  Add his assists and steals together compared to his turnovers and he's way ahead.

 

He lead the team in steals and had 50% more steals than the next closest player and twice as many as the guy in third place for steals.  He had fewer turnovers than any regular starter other than David Rivers (less than half the turnovers that Dylan Talley had) and had more rebounds than Andre Almeida.

 

So, yes, I agree.  The eleven "player of the game awards" doesn't tell the whole story.

He shot the ball more than anyone else.  He shot 130 more 3's than any other player on the team, but his 3-PT% during Big Ten play was below .300.  And he only shot .600 from the FT line. 

 

He scored double figures in 21 games.  Nebraska played 33 games?  That means that he failed to score double figures in 12 games.  (I would be very interested to know what the breakdown of these numbers was during the Big Ten season.)  Is that the bar that Nebraska should set for a starting SG?  Score double figures in fewer than 2/3 of the games in a season (probably lower in Big Ten play)? 

 

As far as turnovers, the number is taken out of context.  Gallegos was largely a catch and shoot scorer.  He was not forced to be the de facto PG (that was Talley), so he wasn't in the position to commit nearly as many turnovers.

 

Again, the point that I've tried to make isn't that Gallegos is a terrible player. There were games where Gallegos was flat out unconscious shooting the ball and couldn't miss even if he tried. But on the flipside, he also had enough games where he couldn't make a shot, that it brought his 3-PT% in conference games down to below .300. Wildly Inconsistent.  I think that you want more consistency from your starters.

[GATA]

Just look at the game-by-game shooting numbers, particularly in the Big Ten...

 

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/45653/ray-gallegos

[mrjam]

I would love to see Ray come in the games like  "The Microwave" Vinnie Johnson from the old Piston teams. That would the best position for him to be in. Ray comes in and lights up the scoreboard. When was the last time we had a player able to do that?

OK, he was player of the game only 11 times on the season and, as Nebrasketballer points out, that only takes into consideration those 11 games.

 

Ray scored in double figures in 21 games.  He scored 8 or 9 points in 4 additional games.  So, he scored 8 or more points in 25 total contests and 7 or fewer points in only 8 games.  He had 46 steals (including 31 in conference games) yet only fouled out once the whole season.  And, in 20 conference games (including the B1G Tournament) only had 20 turnovers.  Which is about 1 turnover for every 39 minutes of playing time.  Add his assists and steals together compared to his turnovers and he's way ahead.

 

He lead the team in steals and had 50% more steals than the next closest player and twice as many as the guy in third place for steals.  He had fewer turnovers than any regular starter other than David Rivers (less than half the turnovers that Dylan Talley had) and had more rebounds than Andre Almeida.

 

So, yes, I agree.  The eleven "player of the game awards" doesn't tell the whole story.

 

I'm not in the "Ray won't start camp." I think Ray will undoubtedly start to open the season. I am in the "Ray won't start if we're going to be very good/if these "new" players are as good as we hope camp." On a good team, Ray is a role player. He averaged just over a steal per game, and I would grade him as an average to slightly above average defender. I would grade him as a better shooter than the numbers suggest (I think most would) but he is a spot-up shooter. He cannot create off the dribble, and his accuracy drops significantly running off screens (as is the case for most spot-up shooters).

 

His turnovers are low because he's not asked to handle the ball and doesn't pass very much. There were numerous occasions we had a 2 on 1 break and Ray took and missed a bad shot when he should have passed - not necessarily because he's selfish, but because he's a subpar ball handler/passer.

 

I would be pleasantly surprised if Ray is not starting in conference play. To me, it hinges on how good Petteway and Webster are. I think Biggs starts at point to start the year. Pitchford and Shields are likely starters. I would consider those 4 I(including Ray) locks for the start of the season (unless Biggs is suspended. Also - haven't seen much of Smit - going off of what I've heard). If Petteway and Webster are as good as we hope, they should supplant Ray by conference play.