Going into last year vs. going into this year: 3-point shooting

[Norm Peterson]

'21-22 3-pt numbers vs. '22-23 output:

 

PG: Sam G: 22-58 = 37.9%; 20-62 = 32.3%

SG: Bando: 70-199 = 35.2%; 17-76 = 22.4%

SG: CJ: 52-128 = 40.6%; 42-134 = 31.3%

PF: Juwan: 9-41 = 22%; 15-57 = 26.3%

PF: Derrick: 0-1 = 0%; 1-2 = 50%

 

SG: Keisei: 36-109 = 33%; 66-165 = 40%

PF: Wilhelm: 3-20 = 15%; 11-47 = 23.4%

 

'22-23 3-pt numbers:

 

PG: Boogie: 68-193 = 35.2%

SG: Keisei: 66-165 = 40%

SG: Jamarques: 28-75 = 37.3%

PF: Juwan: 15-57 = 26.3%

PF: Rienk: 24-68 = 35.3%

 

SG: CJ: 42-134 = 31.3%

SG: Brice: 58-146 = 39.7%

PF: Josiah: 6-38 = 15.8%

Edited September 29, 2023 by Norm Peterson

[Norm Peterson]

I'm looking at last year's basically opening day starters and what they did the year before. And I'm forecasting this year's starters with preference for anyone who was a starter here the year before.

 

Increase in competition level appears to correlate with reduced 3-point proficiency.

 

Therefore, probably exercise caution in expectations for what Boogie, Rienk and Brice do this year from downtown.

 

We were among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten a year ago. We were 9th by percentage, but a fraction of a percent separated 8th from 13th. We were tied with Maryland at 10th/11th in made treys per game.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict we'll improve our overall team 3-point accuracy. And we'll probably have a corresponding bump in made treys per game.

 

I'm also going to predict that we won't have anyone with 30 or more 3-point attempts who shoots under 30% from that range. If that happens, that alone will move the needle a bunch.

[basketballjones]

If KT shoots anywhere near 40% again this year I predict we will have a very good season. He's going to get 200+ 3pt attempts this year I'd imagine. Baylor Scheierman took 239 and Caleb Love took 244 last year. 

[hhcmatt]

Already mentally preparing

[Norm Peterson]

46 minutes ago, basketballjones said:

If KT shoots anywhere near 40% again this year I predict we will have a very good season. He's going to get 200+ 3pt attempts this year I'd imagine. Baylor Scheierman took 239 and Caleb Love took 244 last year. 

 

On the high end in the Big Ten last year, you had PSU attempting about 27 threes per game. We were middle-of-the-pack at about 20 1/2 three attempts per game.

 

Keisei accounted for fully 1/4 of our 3-point attempts last year. That's a lot.  Rather than him taking more shots, I'd rather see some more guys step up and be more accurate. PSU had 4 guys with at least 118 trey attempts and each was over 38% from deep. They were far and away the best in the league and that's probably too much to hope for.

 

I'd be satisfied if we had four guys with at least 75 attempts and each at .375 or better. Last year, we only had 1 guy who would meet those criteria.

[Norm Peterson]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

On the high end in the Big Ten last year, you had PSU attempting about 27 threes per game. We were middle-of-the-pack at about 20 1/2 three attempts per game.

 

Keisei accounted for fully 1/4 of our 3-point attempts last year. That's a lot.  Rather than him taking more shots, I'd rather see some more guys step up and be more accurate. PSU had 4 guys with at least 118 trey attempts and each was over 38% from deep. They were far and away the best in the league and that's probably too much to hope for.

 

I'd be satisfied if we had four guys with at least 75 attempts and each at .375 or better. Last year, we only had 1 guy who would meet those criteria.

 

Do we need to bump that to 4 x 100 attempts at .375 or better?

[basketballjones]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

On the high end in the Big Ten last year, you had PSU attempting about 27 threes per game. We were middle-of-the-pack at about 20 1/2 three attempts per game.

 

Keisei accounted for fully 1/4 of our 3-point attempts last year. That's a lot.  Rather than him taking more shots, I'd rather see some more guys step up and be more accurate. PSU had 4 guys with at least 118 trey attempts and each was over 38% from deep. They were far and away the best in the league and that's probably too much to hope for.

 

I'd be satisfied if we had four guys with at least 75 attempts and each at .375 or better. Last year, we only had 1 guy who would meet those criteria.

But you have to factor in the fact that KT didn't play much in the first 1/4 of the season. I think he'll clear 200 attempts pretty easily. 

[Norm Peterson]

1 minute ago, basketballjones said:

But you have to factor in the fact that KT didn't play much in the first 1/4 of the season. I think he'll clear 200 attempts pretty easily. 

 

Sure, and I'm definitely cool with that if he does (figuring he'll be high-30s, minimum). But it'd be even better if 3 more guys can put together a solid resume of 75 or more attempts at .375 or better.

[hhcmatt]

We didn't take very many 3s last season and played at a slower pace. We took 657 3s which works out to approximately 20.5 per game.

In Fred's first year we played at a very fast pace and took a higher % of 3s, 796 in total, approximately 24.9 per game

 

I'd think that 700 is the floor on attempts for this year. Depending on the number of game we play, the school record of 800 attempts might be on the table.

[Huskerpapa]

I will be a bit of a contrarian.   One of the most important things Keisei did last year was to draw the opposition out to the perimeter.   If we have two or three players on the floor that can shoot and hit the three, then we should have a party driving to the hoop, or dumping it to the post for a rather high percentage basket.  We really took advantage of that during the last half of this past season.  

So although the three point shooting will be important, our points in the paint may be more important (as will our free throw shooting).

[hhcmatt]

5 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

I'm also going to predict that we won't have anyone with 30 or more 3-point attempts who shoots under 30% from that range. If that happens, that alone will move the needle a bunch.

 

[hhcmatt]

1 hour ago, Huskerpapa said:

I will be a bit of a contrarian.   One of the most important things Keisei did last year was to draw the opposition out to the perimeter.   If we have two or three players on the floor that can shoot and hit the three, then we should have a party driving to the hoop, or dumping it to the post for a rather high percentage basket.  We really took advantage of that during the last half of this past season.  

So although the three point shooting will be important, our points in the paint may be more important (as will our free throw shooting).

 

Doesn't seem contrarian at all to conclude that taking (and making) 3s is important even if that importance is to opening up shots in the paint.

[Jacob Padilla]

I think you can probably pencil Tominaga, Lawrence and Williams in as close to 40% guys. 

 

Less confident about Mast, Coleman, Wilcher and Allick. They're the swing guys. We've all seen what Wilcher has been; hard to predict what he'll be this season because of it. 

 

Mast has been low-volume; there's really not a whole lot separating 35% from 28% when you're taking 2-3 per game (see Mast's three seasons a Bradley). He really needs his feet set to shoot a good percentage from what I saw when I did my film study, which limits his versatility and effectiveness as a shooter. Allick is similar in that he's shown the ability to hit 3s at a decent rate, but it's been low volume and in only two of his four seasons.

 

Coleman's shooting has been all over the place throughout his career (including 30% during his only high-major season to date), and in the film I watched from last year he missed a lot of good looks but also knocked in some really tough ones. Overall, I would have liked to see more of his shots go in than I did based on the kind of player he is.

 

I'll believe it when I see it on Gary (didn't love what I saw in the 20 minutes of practice warm-up we got to see). 

[Norm Peterson]

30 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

 

OK, haha, I get your point.

 

But my thought process is this:

 

In the past, we've had bad shooters taking perimeter shots because we didn't have other options. If you recall, a few years back, @basketballjones and I were kind of lamenting that, even though our shooters sucked, we still needed to have people take those shots because that's what the offense requires. You play with the shooters you've got, not the shooters you wish you had.  So even though they weren't making them, they still have to take them. Someone does.

 

Well, this year, we'll have the luxury of enough guys on the roster who can drain the deep ball that we are not going to have to rely on guys who can't shoot to take shots.

 

Here's a list of all the guys I expect will be able to comfortably exceed 30% from beyond the arc:

 

Keisei Tominaga

Brice Williams

Jamarques Lawrence

CJ Wilcher

Boogie Coleman

Rienk Mast

Eli Rice

Sam Hoiberg

Ramel Lloyd

Ahron Ulis if he's eligible

 

With all the guys who can shoot it, the guys who might not clear the 30% hurdle won't get enough touches.